Actually there is one more possibility I didn't open up. SK would not have withheld their shot since we entered the night with 8 players. Mafia would always use that shot to try and hit town, to cause a 3-1-3 and win game. That means the SK loses also if he doesn't take a shot, and he is forced to hit mafia. So the possibility of SK not shooting is overruled in my considerations.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 02:53 GMT

#2001

Vayne is very likely to be scum given my reasoning. If both vayne and mig were town, is it really worth it to shoot Mig just to make me look worse, and leave a town with a claimed roleblock alive?

--> Most likely this has not been needed to be compared, as if Vayne was scum, then there is no doubt that Mig is the best shot to make after my given scenario.

It is not 100% certain that Vayne is scum, but it is extremely likely. The fact that you believe that I could still be scum after reading that tells me more than enough.

Scumteam: Oats/Vayne/???

Keep going.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 02:55 GMT

#2002

Wow I just realized Oats is completely missing from the killshot analysis.

He doesn't change the outcome at all though, given his play so far and having been a target for many other players at this point, there is no reason to shoot Oats as scum above other players even if he were town.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 02:58 GMT

#2007

On January 22 2014 11:57 Oatsmaster wrote:

Show nested quote +

Or is it really worth it to shoot Mig cause he might just catch all of us.

Scumslip? Thank you.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 02:59 GMT

#2008

##unvote: Vayne
##vote: Oats

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 03:00 GMT

#2009

On January 22 2014 11:55 Oatsmaster wrote:

Show nested quote +

lol why shoot the obvious mislynch?

2) They do not believe my claim -> I have to be a fakeclaiming town.
--> Optimal play to shoot Cephiro. SK would not shoot someone fakeclaiming to be them in this situation.
---> Guaranteed to hit another target than the SK = Instant win if SK does not hit scum.

How hard was it to read?

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 03:36 GMT

#2012

Having the same numbers of town and mafia members at any point during the day also results in an automatic win for mafia.

^
From the OP.

Yes I have confidence. I'd lynch either you or Vayne right now.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 13:49 GMT

#2049

I agree with every single one of his reads and believe them to be correct. Oats/Vayne/Koshi most likely scumteam.

Rayn, I knew I could count on you figuring it out. Nice one.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 13:59 GMT

#2053

Check at Koshi for example. Votes at sno first, then changes to me right after. Then he pressures you. Quite sure all three of us are town.

You read my posts, you know I'm town. We're in MYLO, no-one but scum would be pushing for my death at this point. I assume all town players actually read what I said.

As you can see, Vayne + Koshi + Oats are currently the ones sticking to that. With no other reasoning than my fakeclaim ploy.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 14:03 GMT

#2055

Lol Koshi owned. ^_^

I admit I did not concentrate much on others before the happenings of last night, but that was because I firmly believed Mig to be scum. I did mention my suspicions on other players and did also mention players I consider to be town. Your reaction to this tells more than enough.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 14:18 GMT

#2060

There is still a lot of time to deduce who is the scummiest out of you three. It is not a decision I make alone. If there are other town players that feel unsure about one of you, then we'll just lynch into the remaining two. There's more than 30 hours until lynch by now. I'd prefer to you lynch or Vayne first, since I'm not particularly afraid of Oats's scum playing abilities or decisionmaking.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 14:29 GMT

#2066

Rayn, you're a fucking winner. That last contradiction your just pointed about Oats, amazing.

Which of the mafia would you like to lynch today?

Also Hope+Sn0+Skan, get in here and join the discussion. We can't win this with myself and rayn alone. We need your votes.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 14:43 GMT

#2069

For clueless townies that haven't joined in yet, as you can see there is clearly a Koshi+Oats vs Rayn+Ceph match pairing going on here.

Read all the posts carefully, even without common sense you should understand that there is no way that what I and rayn are pointing out is by scum. Just my post alone should prove that, there is absolutely no reason for me to do such a play as scum when I was in no danger of being lynched. I was supposed to be the mislynch of today after scum saw my fakeclaim, and they can't back it up now after starting, which is why Koshi + Oats are pushing for us so hard.

Do the right decision and we will come back, lynch every scum in the following three days and win.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 14:57 GMT

#2073

Do you think we would be where we are now if I hadn't fakeclaimed?

Think about it outside the box. If I don't have enough information to nail the scum, why not make a play to ensure others of myself being town?

One townie less in the pool of mislynches is always a plus, which is the minimum also I wanted to achieve. By making this absurd enough, I've also managed to cause a discussion that effectively outed scum.

This would not be the situation we'd be in right now if I had continued my play as usual.

But hey scum Oats, why waste time in trying to question my fakeclaim. You're not going to be able to undermine me.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 22 2014 17:00 GMT

#2147

To try and look more towny and make others try to become more unsure in their reads to cause maximal chance of mislynch, of course.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 23 2014 17:02 GMT

#2263

##unvote
##vote Koshi

Cooking dinner and shiz, will be around though.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 23 2014 17:08 GMT

#2265

Fairly sure Koshi/Vayne/Oats is the scumteam, but if I had to replace one it would probably be Oats with either Skan or Sn0

Rayn and hope and me I am sure are town.

Need to re-read the actions after the night after I've ate. I am fairly sure the initial reactions most close to my fakeclaim and after the nightflip give us the best information.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 23 2014 21:58 GMT

#2275

I'm feeling quite good about this lynch though. Koshi hasn't even tried to do anything, which I doubt would be the case if he was town. Probably just trying to keep the information to a minimum.

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 23 2014 23:06 GMT

#2289

All them seals ♥

Cephiro

Finland1934 Posts

January 23 2014 23:13 GMT

#2295

Remaining 2 scum are in Skan/Vayne/Oats.

I don't see Sn0 being scum based on interactions and flips so far, even if his play hasn't been the greatest.

The question is... whom out of those is town? Me or rayn will get shot the following night for sure.