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Posting before cycle end.
I don't like the fact that Mig has not been around at all. His posting before the lynch left a bad impression on me. Anyone that checks his Mig's filter from page 2 onward, can see that he is posting a lot of oneliners, mostly filled with questions aimed at several other players. A very casual approach. Too casual even, I feel like he isn't even bothering to think too much about what he posts, just saying whatever comes to his head. While this is not alignment-indicative, I can't help but to feel that he is not actively trying to achieve something with these messages. Especially with the lack of follow-up questionin.
The shortness is easily explained by the short time between his posts. What I am more considered about is, for a player that was this interested in questioning others for their opinions hours before the lynch, has since disappeared and not posted a single time after the lynch, or during the nightphase. This makes me think either he actually just doesn't care about getting any more information or answers, or that he wants to be under the radar. The former can hardly be considered town-like at this stage of the game where we don't have that much to go by (regardless of 50+ pages of "discussion"), and the latter is usually not necessarily a good way for a town player to act either.
So Mig, if you are town, prove it to us. Otherwise I will do everything in my ability to ensure that you are hanging in the noose tomorrow.
Since it appears I still have time, I will try to post a bit of my thoughts on a few other players that I find interesting before the cycle moves on to dayphase.
+/- standings from my notes:
raynpelikoneet +2
Koshi +2
Sn0_Man 0
Toadesstern 0
VayneAuthority 0
Hopeless1der 0
Oatsmaster -1
thrawn2112 -1
kushm4sta -1
Skanjab1s -1
Mig -2
+ is given for actions/deeds/behavior I find very likely to come from a town player. - is given for the opposite, naturally.
Players sharing the same score are not in any particular order. Decimal points are not given, but continuous smaller actions very likely to come from either alignment count towards building a complete point in the same direction.
Not sure if anyone cares, but felt like sharing it.
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Short addition since I'm hungry and need food before I continue.
Oats is a fine target for a vig shot if we have one. Rayn has a small case on him, but it's good. I will add my own observations later. Another possibility is to save the shot for N2, (or use it on D2), when we have more information, if the possible vig(s) feel confident surviving the night.
kush is a very interesting person. My scumread on him was originally much stronger, but between his senseless, "headless chicken" posts, he has quite some gems in there. I am particularly impressed by his logic and theory against me. It is very similar to thoughts I often have as town. I know his assumptions to be false in this game however, but it redeems his play a lot combined with the other few gems he has posted. In any case I'd like to keep him around for now.
It is a possibility that he is being given content or ideas by a scumteam of his, but I find this to be unlikely. I would assume kush to be more "yeah whatever I'll do something my style np" instead of taking direct advice/content and using it. So for now, I want to encourage kush to keep up the activity. Preferably with more gems and less headless posting.
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I would guess thrawn was the kill delivered by scum and kush was either shot by SK or a vig of ours.
I'm hoping it wasn't a vig since that means we may still have a shot and if there is an SK, they need to start scumhunting more properly.
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Toad, do you think if mafia had a vig that they'd take a shot at this point? If I was scum, I'd be more concerned about the possibility of an SK. To me, kush hardly seemed like a blue or an SK.
Of course it's still a possibility, but I consider it unlikely. But it's something that should be kept in mind, especially with hopeless's vet claim. Assuming it is true, it could easily be that the setup has a high amount of kp.
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Hope, why do you think I am either of those? I don't see how anything I've posted points towards either.
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On January 19 2014 09:20 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2014 08:32 Cephiro wrote:
Short addition since I'm hungry and need food before I continue.
Oats is a fine target for a vig shot if we have one. Rayn has a small case on him, but it's good. I will add my own observations later. Another possibility is to save the shot for N2, (or use it on D2), when we have more information, if the possible vig(s) feel confident surviving the night.
kush is a very interesting person. My scumread on him was originally much stronger, but between his senseless, "headless chicken" posts, he has quite some gems in there. I am particularly impressed by his logic and theory against me. It is very similar to thoughts I often have as town. I know his assumptions to be false in this game however, but it redeems his play a lot combined with the other few gems he has posted. In any case I'd like to keep him around for now.
It is a possibility that he is being given content or ideas by a scumteam of his, but I find this to be unlikely. I would assume kush to be more "yeah whatever I'll do something my style np" instead of taking direct advice/content and using it. So for now, I want to encourage kush to keep up the activity. Preferably with more gems and less headless posting. Okay so technically there's a third option where you misread the OP completely, but I'm trying to assume you are literate. My apologies if I have overestimated you. (i.e. you are stupid if this is the case omfg). Vig's are dedicated shots for either Day OR Night. Not both. Since you know of the dayvig existing, it follows that you either ARE a dayvig or you FEAR the dayvig and are hoping to direct him elsewhere.
Now you're out on thin ice.
1) There is a possibility of a vig, dayvig, neither, or even both (unlikely) to exist with the information we are given.
2) I have no idea which is the true case, which is why I listed all the possibilities.
I have at no point claimed I would know a vig role to exist in this game. It is fairly likely to be so, however, but nothing can be said for certain by anyone but a person that may have that role. I think my sentence quite clearly points out me saying that another possibility is to save the shot for N2 (in case of vig), OR use it on D2 (in case of dayvig). What part do you not get?
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Also to add, if you thought I was the dayvig, why would you want to point this out in the thread if you were town?
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On January 19 2014 09:26 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2014 09:25 Cephiro wrote:
Also to add, if you thought I was the dayvig, why would you want to point this out in the thread if you were town? Why would he do this as scum?
Is there a specific reason for you to step in and present a counter-question?
If I would be thinking Hope is scum, I would have told everyone why I think it's done from a scum perspective.
I don't think that's the case however, thus I ask him what he has to gain by doing it from a town perspective, since it felt off to me. Do you have a problem with that?
Also Hope, you could actually take my posts seriously instead of trying to be funny.
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I was confused due to the way you posted, but that clarifies it up, thanks.
However, there is no reason why your or anyone else should consider me a dayvig, nor expect me to have killing powers right now. So let us assume I have none and go on.
I do agree with you though, if we have a dayvig, using it as a second lynch makes a lot of sense.
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Well as far as I know there is no role that is suddenly given such powers. So I would either have to have them since the beginning until used, or have none at all.
But as I said, there is no reason why anyone should assume me to have them at the moment. (In my opinion I have not spoken in a manner that hints at myself having any.)
Perhaps later on I may hint towards such if I consider it necessary. Or then try to avoid it at all costs. There is no reason to speculate that now, especially given my early claim. Town has nothing to gain from this discussion, we should concentrate on finding the scum (and SK?).
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Because I softclaimed in my first post. Or second, very early on anyways.
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On January 16 2014 09:32 Cephiro wrote:
Hi all. I am not very interested in the random banter at the start of the game and I have better things to do, thus I will not take part in the first few hours of discussion, probably.
All you need to know is that I'm one in a million. :3 I shall observe from the shadows, for now.
^ The above.
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On January 19 2014 01:35 Toadesstern wrote:
oh also I haven't commented on the ceph case because when I said good night I finished up what I still had left for the night (see screenshot) and wasn't in here, except for a quick look every hour or so. Actually I still haven't read it.
You felt necessary to answer earlier one when you were questioned / accused by others for your lack of response to my case. (Merely acknowledging it's existence and moving on.)
By this point you've had more than enough time seeing as you've been posting in thread to read it. Is there a reason you haven't followed up on it after reading it? Or have you still not?
I also don't like at all how you are claiming everyone is against you and you're clearly being framed and how you're clearly going up for lynch. I haven't felt at a single point in the game that you would've been close to getting lynched. Is there a particular reason you feel necessary to continuously point this out for others? Trying to ensure everyone understands you are being framed when you aren't?
Just looks really off in my opinion.
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Had a 3-hour call with my future wifey (no, she doesn't know that yet.) -> Mafia playing got delayed.
So no analysis to come with this post, just my quick opinions. I will not lynch outside: Oats/Skan/Mig/Toad.
I'd prefer Mig / Toad lynched. My own analysis as for why to come. And anyone who has read the thread knows there are many good reasons to.
For those that are calling me mafia, I'd like to ask one thing. Make a proper case on me based on my own actions if you really think I'm mafia. All I see is so far calling me scum based on association. Last time I knew I'm not that good. (But hey, maybe I've gotten better, who knows?)
After re-reading my filter with my neutral mindset, do think about if it's more likely to come from a scum Cephiro or a town Cephiro. That's all.
Will be back at least 2 hours before the lynch.
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##Vote: Toadesstern
There is no reason not to after these actions. I can get on a Mig/Oats lynch as well.
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@Toad: I don't approve of your decision even with the reasoning you gave us. Giving up like that without even trying was bound to lead into your lynch. You were being pressured hard, but you were by no means a certain lynch today, and if you had put proper effort I could have seen us lynching someone else. This way you effectively killed a lot of discussion that could have come up, and due to your behavior today's lynch gives us very little information. I am very disappointed.
@Rest of the town
1 more down, game is getting harder for us but don't give up. We can very well win this, if people don't give up and contribute.
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Mig, you've called your suspicion on me quite a few times now. Would you like to actually provide reasons for why I'm scum? You haven't done that a single time. There is very little you've done this game to be honest.
I actually find it much more likely that you're just scum trying to get points for "trying to save Toad" <-- lol, rather than being town and genuinely trying to prevent that lynch.
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Btw, just so you know, monkeys are town in this game.... if you were town, you'd know better.
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I'm not whatever you call "cow". You completely refuse to deal with anything you don't want to. If you were town and genuinely thought I were scum, you would be trying to do something about it. But you aren't. What gives? I find it quite laughable to be honest that your scumread has to ask you to make a case since you go around saying people are mafia and give absolutely no reasoning.
If you want me to believe you are town, then provide me with information and content as I ask, instead of denying my (and many others) requests aimed at you.
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On January 21 2014 10:20 Mig wrote:
The game is very close to over now and if 2 townies die tonight then it is 99.9% over. If anyone thinks that I as mafia would have jeopardized that by trying to save the town cop 1.5 hours before lynch just for some town cred you are insane.
Since you simply ignore this fact cephiro it means you are either mafia or you have the playing ability of a bag of dirty socks. I don't really know which is the case unfortunately.
Except that with your effort of "saving the town cop", it was easy to deduce absolutely nothing was going to change. The fact that you are still ignoring my requests of making a case on someone that you actually think is mafia just proves that you are the next one to be lynched.
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EPT
