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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 23 2014 07:58 Promethelax wrote:
##vote sandroba
On January 23 2014 07:44 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 07:41 VisceraEyes wrote:
What ranks him higher than sandroba who is A) a lurker and B) trying to get you lynched? Is it just the fact that he's set to be lynched? I find fool likelier scum than sand. Sand pulls this shit as town while fool hasn't done so in my experience. I wouldn't be unhappy with a sand list, it isn't my preference but I wouldn't hate it.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
So prom, you're given the deciding vote and contradict yourself from minutes earlier?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
I think the biggest thing to consider is whether or not sandroba was the sacrificial lamb in an attempt to save Prom/Foolishness.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 23 2014 08:15 gonzaw wrote:
Taking a guess here:
Kita - VE - sandroba
It's unfounded for now, but that's my "im so fucking pumped ill figure out the entire scumteam!" guess
Eww gross. Stop that.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 23 2014 08:27 gonzaw wrote:
You two seem kind of bummed. Are you two depressed for some reason? Did your favourite football team lose at the same exact time sandro flipped?
...actually if you are a Manchester United fan that might actually be true so disregard that lolololo
Watch out, gonzaw laying down the soccer smack 
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 23 2014 09:48 gonzaw wrote:
Hey kita, I think your Mafia Combinatorics thing might be useful here.
For example, VE and Foo just can't be scum together.
I believe Prome and kita can't be scum together either (BOTH kita and sandro being on him and kita doing nothing, specially not jumping on the sandro wagon (when he already has a vote on another scumbuddy) doesn't make sense).
We could cross other possible scumteams out, and maybe get somewhere.
I knew I'd find a believer!
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Doubt I'll be rereading tonight. Ask me tomorrow.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
I'm starting to look back now, but one question you can answer while I do so prom:
If I was your leading lynch candidate up until page 30, and the only thing I've really done since then is push a lynch on yourself, rather than swapping to the flipped scum player sandroba, what makes me drop from number one on your list to four?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 23 2014 11:15 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 10:51 kitaman27 wrote:
Doubt I'll be rereading tonight. Ask me tomorrow. Tomorrow?
So, Sunderland won against Man United. Peñarol lost. Nacional won. We lynched scum on D1. I ate some fabulous pizza tonight. Life's good, man, life's good.
Can't help but think that gonzaw is commenting about this last meal XD
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 24 2014 03:39 VisceraEyes wrote:
Also isn't it weird that WoS wasn't on the first list?!!?!?
:/
Is there a point that you are trying to make here?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 24 2014 03:46 VisceraEyes wrote:
Like what's the fucking point of me coming in and trying when people just think it's funny and make jokes and NOT talk about my contributions?
Yeah, this game can eat shit.
You can always try to convince me. I'm here for you.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 24 2014 03:49 Promethelax wrote:
Well Kita, why did you abandon your silly pairings?
Yes. I didn't put much time into it though since I decided to spend more time on individuals yesterday. I may see if it gives us anything today, but I want to get the vote analysis looked at first. More of a side thing at the moment..
@gonzaw. I'm not sure what democratic vote thing you are referring to. I intended the list to mostly be for personal use with the option for people to share opinions if they see fit.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 24 2014 04:19 VisceraEyes wrote:
I'm going to go ahead and say this, because I feel like I have to. I would have switched to Sand if I were here when the stuff was going down.
What stuff going down are you referring to? Weren't you completely caught up to sandroba's re-enterence to the thread? If you are referring to the vote switch, does that mean that the only reason you didn't move your vote earlier was due to the fact that you didn't think he was an option, rather than you feeling Foolishness was a better lynch?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 24 2014 05:00 VisceraEyes wrote:
Like, let me rephrase what I said earlier. If I were around, I would have switched to EITHER Prom OR sand. But Foolish was on Prom and felt like he was manipulating me so I was hesitating and then I got caught up and never made it back to the thread.
Weren't you around with 20 minutes to go. Why couldn't you switch then?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 24 2014 05:03 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2014 05:02 kitaman27 wrote:On January 24 2014 05:00 VisceraEyes wrote:
Like, let me rephrase what I said earlier. If I were around, I would have switched to EITHER Prom OR sand. But Foolish was on Prom and felt like he was manipulating me so I was hesitating and then I got caught up and never made it back to the thread. Weren't you around with 20 minutes to go. Why couldn't you switch then? I literally just answered this in the post you quoted. It's explicit in my posting at the time. Why are you asking me this?
mmk for some reason I thought the manipulating post had come at the beginning of the hour.
Is Prom/Foolishness/Sandroba the most likely trio in your opinion or just something to consider?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
No need to taunt him gonzaw, even if think you're right.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Foolishness (3): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow
Promethelax (2): Foolishness, Kitaman27
Kitaman27 (1): Promethelax
Sandroba (1): marvellosity
This is probably the best place to start with the voting analysis. With 50 minutes to go, the Foolishness vs Prom lynch is wide open. At this point, mafia has their choice of either player to flip.
In a town vs town scenario, mafia generally prefer to vote the player that is not going to flip. That gives them an excuse to push the same player the next cycle, rather than finding a new target to go after.
In town vs mafia, it can usually go two ways. A strong scum player will give their support to their scum buddy by voting the town candidate. From my experience, it is pretty rare to see a mafia player vote their own scum buddy in a close lynch early. A weaker scum player will generally wait until more town votes come in and there is a clearer picture of where the lynch is heading. They may decide to vote for their scum buddy later on if they think that is where the lynch is heading. If they can put their vote on an buddy that isn't going to flip, that's usually the preferred scenario.
Foolishness (3): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow
Promethelax (3): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba
Kitaman27 (1): Promethelax
Sandroba (1): marvellosity,
Next, sandroba comes in with his vote on Prom. This actually makes me reconsider my red Prom read. If it's town vs town here, sandroba doesn't really care and Prom is town. If it's town Prom vs mafia Foolishness, then the vote makes sense. A mafia prom vs a town foolishness doesn't make much sense. It would be incredibly risky to tie the vote up at 3v3 and his little reward. Sure, Foolishness could flip and sandroba might look better, but at the expense of endangering his scum buddy when he could make it 4v2? If the bus is going on, then it must have been a last minute decision because there is little interaction between the two in the thread. Not much reward there either.
At this point, I also don't think the mafia team was thinking about a sandroba lynch. With 1/8 votes actually on Sandro, he knows he is going to get in trouble for showing up at the last minute, but I don't think mafia is in "lets bus sandroba" mode.
Foolishness (4): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax
Promethelax (3): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba
Sandroba (1): marvellosity
Prom returns to the thread and moves his vote over to Foolishness. I had an issue with this at the time, but on second thought I think it's fine as town or mafia. He has already shared suspicion of Foolishness earlier in the thread and his vote is going no where on myself. He doesn't seem to consider sandroba, but it's possible that he doesn't see that as an option yet.
Foolishness (5): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, Marvellosity
Promethelax (4): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba, Hapahauli
Sandroba (1): marvellosity
Hapa joins Prom, Marv joins Foolishness. Not much to say here. Vote could still go either way.
Foolishness (5): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, Marvellosity
Promethelax (4): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba, Hapahauli
Sandroba (1): marvellosity
gonzaw (1): HolyFlare
I think this vote from Holy eliminates a Fool-Holy and Prom-Holy mafia team. As a player without any value for the mafia team due to replacement, unless a mafia Holy is 100% cut off from all communication with his scum team, I think he would vote to save a buddy, rather than abstain, even if he wasn't totally caught up.
Foolishness (6): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, Marvellosity, Hapahauli
Promethelax (3): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba
Sandroba (1): marvellosity
gonzaw (1): HolyFlare
At this point, it seems pretty likely that Foolishness is getting lynched with only 10 minutes left in the day.
The vote swap to sandroba comes in the following order: gonzaw, austin, marv, Hapa, Prom
I don't see this as a swap that was mafia driven. It's likely that they were caught off guard here. I have a strong town read on gonza/Hapa, and I'm thinking town Prom due to the reasoning above. marv I was suspicious of most of yesterday before the lynch, but he plays a strong role here and makes some good points throughout the later part of the cycle. Unless it's marv + foolishness (which seems unlikely), I'm leaning town on him as well.
I don't feel that I have a good grasp on austin. He does play a role in the lynch by getting on sandroba 2nd in the swap, but he seemed mostly willing to go with where the town lead him. If Hapa/marv went to Prom instead, it seems like he would have joined them. If there is a mafia in this group of 5, it seems like it would be him, but I need to think more about that.
Finally, we have Foolishness. Based on the way the votes went down, I'm struggling to see who the third scum buddy would be if he is mafia. I don't think he would be with Holy due to the reasons I mentioned earlier. Does VE or WoS really leave Foolishness out to dry by leaving the thread when he is in trouble? marv has too many interactions with him, unless they are trying to put on a show. Prom seems unlikely. gonzaw and Hapa look town, unless there is something I'm really overlooking. That really only lives Foolishness/sandroba/austin. I suppose that could be a possibility with austin being on the "anyone but Foolishness" side of things. It might also explain why austin was reluctant to vote prom when he seemed to be one of his preferred targets a bit before the swap since it would mean all three scum players would be on the same player, which could get ugly late game. I'm somewhat concerned with the fact that he doesn't seem to consider that I could be mafia at any point in the game. From my experience, I usually get called town by the mafia players, while town players are a bit more paranoid. sandroba and austin are also guilty of that this game. I'm probably still leaning town on him, though less so than others.
It seems to be that the individuals who were absent are the ones most likely to be mafia (VE, WoS, Holy), which seems to be where the town is leaning as well. I'm going to reread all three when I have the time.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
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EPT
