EPTd2 will be a lynch between non-Sand voters of course but there is a lot of sadness in my heart at the absences of so many esteemed players thus far.
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
d2 will be a lynch between non-Sand voters of course but there is a lot of sadness in my heart at the absences of so many esteemed players thus far. | ||
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On January 24 2014 07:54 austinmcc wrote: I waited like a month to have this game start. Scum better not just get "depressed" and play poorly  Foolishness has two big posts since the lynch. They're entirely concerned with the timing of votes and whatnot. I still see this as a good place for mafia to hide and just get activity out of speculation. HOWEVER, Foolishness's posts are some of the least speculative of that bunch, he does go into WoS's filter and pull some things out, do a little analysis. But overall, he's very quick to just say that all sandro voters are town, give a list of 4-5 people that need looking out (which is, btw, basically everyone who didn't vote sandro). To me, the actually reads and posts from yesterday are more important than a bunch of speculation on votes and timing, ESPECIALLY when ALL the speculation comes from "you guys have to assume I'm town." If you want, myself or someone else can type up an identical big post in the world where sandroba AND foolishness are town. We can fully explain what votes moved, why, etc. etc. And it'll be based just as much on someone who is unflipped being a particular alignment. Except our post would be bolstered by Foolishness's D1 play. One question, and I'm still lazy so it's not like I can say I've done this, but do you find Foolishness going from terrible posts to good posts to be a town Foolishness trait? Or is that something that mafia Foolishness actually does when under pressure? I don't remember him becoming entirely absent when under suspicion, I'm pretty sure he USUALLY posts some semi-reasonable looking lists of reads, or at least reads reasonable enough that a lot of the thread goes "hey, that looks pretty good." Off the top of my head, he has a decently well-reasoned list post and some followup in Bureaucracy (he was scum), a less-well-reasoned list post and I think some other jazz in Parallel Worlds, and I don't like remembering that Champions Game because it was kinda painful to read. I don't know it as a meta fact. I just don't see a lazy mafia player getting less lazy after a mafia lynch. You've brought up enough good points for me to be more interested in a foolishness lynch than I have been in this night phase thus far. | ||
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##Vote: VE | ||
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WoS VE Holy Fool as scummy. I was hoping he had a clear target before the resolution deadline that would have suggested that he was killed to push a single lynch. In terms of history: marv or I are the most likely to kill Hapa as scum n1 I think. | ||
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Conclusions: WoS' activity makes him Unlynchable for me. Today. He had an awful post about him and VE both being scum that sounded like it came from a scum with VE perspective but the rest of his stuff has been decent and simply involved. If he is scum he isn't the one we will lynch today. Townier than he was at the beginning of the day though his terrible attitude towards me/sand d1 and towards VE d2 are worrisome he is near the bottom of my lynch list. Kita looks much townier today than he has in a while. The specific thing that pokes out to me is his VCA which was excellent combined with his dismissal of VCA as a reasonable reason to town read someone. He discounted the town points from his towniest post and I like that. Like WoS he is at the bottom of my potential lynch list. VE looks bad. Really bad. His rage quit didn't seem VE-y to me, it was too soft. VE is a guy I like a lot because he is full of feelings like me and lets them cloud his judgement like I do. I think VE likes me too. So if I'm right his rage quit at me/gon was really weird while I was being super nice to him and trying to draw him out of his shell. The fact that he came back with the pants-on-headiest conspiracy theory about me still being scum was weirder still. Near the top of my lynch list, not near, is the top.And yes, VE does rage quit as scum. Toad is being odd in my mind but not totally scummy. I looked at holy again and that 'too bad to be scum' post jumped out at me again. The way toad is playing reminds me of some times where I have replaced and been sorta lost so I just dicked around trying to fit in and maybe catch low hanging scum. I don't love this slot but it has some townie points. Austin looks really good from today, I really wasn't sure about his day one play but his thread policing has been solid and subtle. Last time I played with (scum) Austin he worked really hard to be noticed policing the thread and did nothing himself. This game he has done good police work and hasn't drawn undue attention to it. Fool is a pendulum of uncertainty, I had him as solid scum for a while d1 and solid town for a while n1. In some way it comes down to teams. Fool can only be scum in my head if holy/toad is. Basically the total lack of push onto me d1 was really pathetic if fool was scum and had to be because he had two lurking teammates. His posts have been okay but I a little heavy handed when it comes to saying fool is town. My lynch list, like fool's is four men long. In some semblance of order it is VE, fool/toad, WoS | ||
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On January 24 2014 08:03 Promethelax wrote: huh? Okay. ##Vote: VE See? | ||
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And I'd point out I just posted that ve is still me top lynch suspect. VE is leading votes right now. What more do you want? He hasn't slipped under the radar so much as Gonzaw is pressuring elsewhere be causing Gonzaw has pants full of ants and Kita/WoS are after fool. | ||
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On January 25 2014 21:57 Promethelax wrote: Which of be and toad do you prefer to lynch Marv? Like I get those are the most lynchable, I don't disagree with you but which one and why? And I'd point out I just posted that ve is still me top lynch suspect. VE is leading votes right now. What more do you want? He hasn't slipped under the radar so much as Gonzaw is pressuring elsewhere be causing Gonzaw has pants full of ants and Kita/WoS are after fool. I mean based on your vote you prefer VE, I'm just not sure from your post why VE over toad. Explain please? | ||
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On January 25 2014 22:05 marvellosity wrote: I don't really get the point of desperately trying to exonerate one player. Just lynch the two mafia. It's not that complicated. So you think VE/toad team? | ||
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So, do you think VE and toad are the last two scum? Who of fool/WoS/Kita is the least likely scum? Who is the most likely? Simple question with simple answers. | ||
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My real issue is that a Marv who sees a lynch going away from his preferred target who he sees as being sure scum isn't more agitated and doesn't attempt to bring the lynch back. You want to lunch toad, you want to lunch VE. You are mildly perturbed that people are shifting off VE, right? Why aren't you taking control of town and forcing the lynch towards VE? That is where my issues lay. | ||
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I get the impression you think Kita is scummier than WoS (this was really the only one I wasn't sure of from your post) if we lynch VE toad and the game isn't over would you advocate a Kita lynch? If not Kita who? I'm pretty on board with a VE lynch, and I might be on board with a toad follow up. You played Harry potter with HF didn't you? Do you think he is capable of that kind of awful post as scum? I'd like to meta read him but I've never played with him and so my meta is weak as can be and pretty much the only thing making me lean town on the slot. | ||
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I'm back. Sorry for my absence. Work and I had a disagreement about my free time which work won. I have a few hours tonight and all day tomorrow though and I plan on using that time to my advantage in this game. My goals for the next 24 hours are to filter dive all living players with a primary focus on Kita/WoS/Toad/Fool My secondary goal is to spend time discussing with Austin a conspiracy theory fermenting in the depths of my sanity-lacking mind. I hope he can dispel the notion from my head. My tertiary goal is to prove my townienss to the thread since, with my long absences, there should be some amount of doubt about my towniness and, due to our position it would be a great benefit to town to eliminate town players from the lynchable pool. Anyone who has any questions for me should feel free to ask them. FYI: I am not up to date with the thread. My filter dive begins with Toad. Updates to follow. | ||
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Toad: 5 Fool: 5 Marv: 13 Austin: 9 Kita: 10 Me: 5 WoS: 14 Based on this I'd say at least one of Fool/Toad is scum. It is a rough measuring stick but since I have reason to town read the four players with double the post count of myself and the above players it isn't a bad reason to start there. I know that some scum make sure to have at least as many posts as the bottom tier townie and since there are three of us with 5 posts everyone can see that at least one townie has that post count. Since I have my own role pm I can eliminate me from the proceedings. This chart shall dictate the order I read filters in 1. Toad 2. Fool 3. Kita 4. + Show Spoiler [WoS] + Again by sheer dint of effort I find it very unlikely that WoS is scum. He said some things about VE which were so out of left field dumb (as scum) that he has to be town.+ Show Spoiler + His comments that at most only one of them was scum are telling, when he, as scum, knows VE will flip town those bet hedging posts are awful. He wasn't sure enough of a town VE for him to be scum. He hedged his bets to save face, to be able to say "well, I had my doubts" if VE flipped. Not to gain towncred from his correct read | ||
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On January 28 2014 08:21 WaveofShadow wrote: Read the thread first. Also did you include Holy in your page count re: Toad? He joined late so it's not exactly fair. (I also worry about using thread-count metrics to look into people. While it does have merit in most games even though some people argue it doesn't, in this game it seems to already have created some controversy around me. I'd prefer if that doesn't become the focus for when people inevitably critique your reads.) It isn't a metric for who is or is not scum. It is a metric for who is worth looking at first. | ||
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On January 28 2014 08:45 Toadesstern wrote: ? But I'm watching WcW for the next hour so I'll leave it at that Yeah, it seems likely. No conclusions until I've read your filters/the game. Hint: based on your filter it isn't Toad. (I'm like half way done your filter and I added a meta case for you being town, the post is getting a little long) | ||
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