Back To The Basics Mini Mafia - Page 3

On November 20 2013 15:50 Rean wrote:
Smartass comment that I couldn't resist: + Show Spoiler +

More seriously: Mocsta, good post by post analysis but I don't agree with it all. Your points on both Scib and Corazon make sense but I think you're falling into the "he must be scum so I'll try to interpret everything he says as scummy" trap a little with Cora.

In particular: + Show Spoiler + seems like a legitimate point to me rather than a scum-slip. But it could be a way of distancing himself from Scib if he flips red.

I also want to see Aquanim under a bit of pressure to see how he reacts but let's not do everything at once.

And the lack of 5 people is rather disappointing still.

On November 21 2013 11:05 Aquanim wrote:

Let me put it this way - I see nothing in Onegu's posts which is making me lean town on him. However, I'd like to play devil's advocate for a little while to further understand your point of view.

With regards to Onegu's first post this reads like the kind of post where he's just scanned the thread and picked out interesting tidbits without any overall plan to the post. If he's at the mall he's probably posting from his phone, which I imagine makes constructing an organised, coherent post difficult. I think it's understandable that in this post he's spent more time on Mocsta.

The fact that he hasn't elaborated on Corazon and Rean in the rest of his filter is a scummy kind of thing to do, I agree. However, a fair proportion of his interactions with the thread are due to Mocsta asking him questions and critiquing Onegu's read on him, which would naturally lead to Onegu spending most of his time talking about Mocsta.

(That being said, he doesn't seem to have talked about anyone other than Mocsta really at all after that first post. IF that doesn't change abrubtly when he gets back Onegu starts to look really bad.)

@Sciberbia: How plausible do you think these explanations for Onegu's behaviour are?

My opinion is that they could explain Onegu's play if he's town, but they're sufficiently unlikely that overall my leaning on Onegu is scummy.

On November 21 2013 08:10 Aquanim wrote:
So, these votes on me.

Jampidampi
+ Show Spoiler +
Basically, it took me two hours to determine that you weren't coming back and wouldn't elaborate on that point on your own. If you were going to explain yourself without my prompting I wanted to give you that opportunity. Obviously you didn't, and I can't help but notice you haven't answered my question even now. @Jampidampi I'd still like you to answer my question.

Rean
I already knew when I left to sleep that Rean would be voting for me when I came back. Based on his earlier suspicions of me it's the obvious next step to sheep a case someone has obligingly made for him, regardless of his alignment.

+ Show Spoiler +
Okay.
1) I'm not backing out of my read on Rean, I'm quite confident he is scum. At the time, I was quite confident on both him and Corazon being scum, and since there were already votes on Corazon I decided I'd vote for Rean to pressure him too. I don't see what problem anybody has with that.
2) "Haven't done anything about my second-strongest scumread"? I put a vote on Rean after satisfying myself he wasn't going to contribute anything meaningful without a nudge, and then he hadn't come back and replied by the time I went to sleep so there was nothing further to do.

Corazon
I also figured Corazon's vote was coming, my wagon being a nice alternative to his.

+ Show Spoiler +
1) I changed my opinion on Corazon because new information arose (in this case, that there continued to be no purpose behind his case on sciberbia)
2) I believe my actual stated opinion on Rean's question was that it was an easy question for scum to ask - which is in fact true. I don't claim it accomplished nothing - it is indeed a question I ask often as town. It is a question I would ask often if I was scum, too. The point was that that question was Rean's ONLY attempt to draw information out of the thread, which gives me no reason to think he's town.
3) This guy isn't scum

and 4) It's interesting (and scummy) that all of Corazon's reasons for thinking I'm scum are in some way linked to "attacking Corazon" or "attacking people defending Corazon".

Rayn
I don't think there was anything in particular new to address from rayn's vote.

If anyone has anything further for me to adress I'll be around to answer.

On November 21 2013 09:19 Aquanim wrote:

As far as I can tell, your entire 'pressure' of sciberbia is calling him out for calling you his second-strongest scumread and then not following that up. Which is a pretty piss-poor excuse for scumhunting on your part. This reads more to me like you being concerned that you're listed as a scumread.

@Rean: Do you seriously think sciberbia is scum? Why or why not?

And calling out LoneMeow for lurking? Please. Calling out lurkers is the easiest game there is. I don't see any actual effort from you here either.

On November 21 2013 10:42 Aquanim wrote:

To be honest I'm now more confident in Rean scum than Corazon.

Before I went to sleep, pretty much the sum total of Corazon's play was some half-assed push on sciberbia without a vote, which I considered scummy. I'm having some trouble reconciling

with

but that is the kind of contradiction which I could believe a townie would make.

Since then, however, Corazon's posting has improved somewhat - he's talking about a larger variety of things in the thread and looks more like he's trying to be productive and useful. I'm still not convinced since a fair bit of his volume is devoted to defending his statements rather than doing anything proactive, but that's understandable given how much he's being asked to defend himself. I don't see anything which convinces me as to his alignment either way.

His apparent conviction that I'm scum is a pretty safe view to hold given the current state of the thread. Again, could just be a townie who agrees with other townies, or he could be scum hiding on the obvious wagon. Hard to tell.

Summary of my read on Corazon: I can believe everything Corazon's done so far from a scum Corazon or a town Corazon, though I feel the scum explanation is more likely. I'd prefer to wait for another day to lynch him and try to put together a more conclusive read on him. I'd certainly prefer to lynch him before most people in this game.
+ Show Spoiler +

As for Rean, since I put my vote on him his contributions have been:
1) jumping on my wagon, which he was pretty much obliged to
2) making some shitty point against sciberbia and then defending it against all and sundry - the fact that this point is based around sciberbia having a scum read on Rean is a black mark in my opinion, attacking someone for giving them a scumread is a typical scum move
3) calling out LoneMeow lurking, which as I've said is really, really easy for scum to do

Again, I have no conclusive evidence that Rean is scum, but I'm more confident about him than Corazon. His point against sciberbia really smells to me.

They're both coming after me with a fair dose of confirmation-bias/deliberate-obtuseness, so there's that too.

As regards the other two:

JarJarDrinks

- Original case on Mocsta was not really airtight but not having been there at the time I can understand his argument, even if I don't agree with it.
- Overall he's putting his viewpoint into the thread and defending it effectively when queried.
- He's seeking clarification from Corazon about Cora's original argument against sciberbia, which was indeed unclear. i.e. trying to understand what's going on in the game, when he could have just ignored it and carried on. Major town points.

Conclusion: Likely town.

Onegu

- First post is clearly based on a quick scan of the thread rather than in-depth analysis. I don't know that I'd take it too seriously.
- Suspicion of Mocsta's "thread captaining" is weird, it's not an argument I'd have made and I don't find it convincing. Plenty of townies make arguments I don't find convincing though, so meh.
- Put a lot of work into replying to Mocsta's wallpost, but given how useless that was I don't give it town points.
- Other than that, not a whole lot of effort.

Conclusion: Definitely need to see more effort. If it's not forthcoming, I think he's a decent lynch today, though I'd still prefer Rean or maybe Cora. If he does offer some more reads, activity, etc. I think he could then at least wait for another day.

---

At this point my lynch is looking quite likely. However, I'm still a townie and I can still be useful to you.
If I go and do something on my own initiative at this point, I reckon whatever it is I'm going to get jumped on by eager scum and confirmation-biased townies. I can still do that if that's what you'd prefer.
I think I can accomplish more if you ask me questions. That way, since you all have the initiative about what I talk about, I won't get jumped on for every post I make for "trying to redirect discussion" or some such rubbish.
At this point, Mocsta and sciberbia, I think this is mostly on you - everyone else here either doesn't want to talk to me or is just lurking. What would you like to talk to me about?

On November 21 2013 11:21 Aquanim wrote:

Do you think it would make more sense for Rean to avoid talking to you about your scumread? Confronting a read like that head-on and attacking is something I've seen scum do before.

(For example, IIRC Spicydinosaur's scum play in NMM XLIII looked quite similar in that regard - when FirmTofu expressed a slight suspicion of him Spicydinosaur attacked him vehemently over it. In particular, Spicydinosaur didn't try to actually refute FT's points against him, but preferred to directly attack FT's play instead. This feels similar to Rean's play here.)

On November 21 2013 12:02 raynpelikoneet wrote:

Okay let's talk about this.

First quote - He sums up where he is and says why people voted for him (???).
Second quote - Repeats my question (which has been answered) to Rean. Calls him out for calling out lurkers (nothing alignment indicative). Asks if Rean thinks scib is still scummy.
Third quote - null read on Cora, leaning scum on Rean (ofc), townread on JJD, weird read on Onegu. Then the "please tell me what to say" bullshit
Fourth quote - justifying his scumread with what someone else did in some other game.

So, in conclusion, he gives out one townread and one scumread, two null reads. Repeats said arguments, and talks bullshit or gives bad reasons for someone to be scum. Where does he actually scumhunt? Where does he attempt to find out more on anyone? His vote is on a guy he is "leaning scum on", to me that reads it's not even a strong scumread.

So yes, he is pushing his read, but for bad reasons.