Newbie Mini Mafia LI - Page 3

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 09 2014 02:04 GMT

#889

@Derrida

On January 09 2014 07:08 Derrida wrote:
Awww, good bye all, I did enjoy my first game, I wish it lasted longer. Was an awesome learning experience for me, have fun! Thank you LoneMeow for hosting

Hopefully see you next newbie game?

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 09 2014 02:08 GMT

#890

@Jonny

On January 09 2014 02:32 Day_Walker wrote:
@Jonny
I want to hear more about this post:

Show nested quote +

You seem to be the only person besides me who thought that dnyarri's vote was important, and I'm curious why.

T_T why you got to leave my burning questions forever unanswered? RIP bro T_T

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 09 2014 02:18 GMT

#892

On January 09 2014 11:14 Balla24 wrote:
Why would Asuna point out that Derrida's list was missing her if she was scum with him? To gain town cred for the offchance that Derrida flips?

Mmm good point. Perhaps it felt too obvious for her to ignore?

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 09 2014 12:07 GMT

#912

@BigDad
If dnyarri is not scum, then my theory that Derrida skipped over Asuna and dnyarri because they were scum mates is wrong. If you take that away, I have Asuna on the list of people who could easily be scum but I'm not really sure. So in the interest of being honest, I need to retract my "I would be happy to lynch either one" statement. Right now dnyarri is my number one choice and Asuna is my number two choice, but I think dnyarri is a much better lynch target and in fact I would not be happy with an Asuna lynch.

About Asuna's role claim:
When I read it, I thought of these two scenarios:
1) Asuna is townie blocked by scum
2) scum have no blocker, Asuna is scum and knows that nobody was blocked, Asuna claims the block for cred

Of course town could have a blocker too (I think. Yes?), so theoretically two people could have been blocked, which makes case 2 a bit less convincing to me (it wasn't guaranteed that Asuna would be the only person claiming a block, even if Asuna knew there was no scum blocker.

Anyway I feel like I can't read too much into Asuna's block claim and inclined to agree with chinstrap that Asuna does not belong on any confirmed town list.

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 09 2014 17:33 GMT

#951

@dnyarri

If you look over Derrida's filter, in retrospect what do you think were his biggest scum tells?

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 10 2014 05:02 GMT

#976

On January 10 2014 02:08 chinstrap wrote:
If dynarri flips scum - sidesprang is scum #3

On January 10 2014 02:56 Balla24 wrote:
Note though that sidestrap is voting dnyarri RIGHT NOW:

Also Derrida lists sidesprang as his #3 scum pick in his last big post.

Based on Derrida's post sidesprang looks like town to me, and will look even more town if dynarri flips scum.

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 10 2014 05:04 GMT

#977

On January 10 2014 01:56 Balla24 wrote:
Nope. But right now we're playing under the assumption that there is no SK.

OWB doesn't play risky, you said it yourself, he's being very careful.

Why are we playing under this assumption? Based on all the TTTT options it looks like there is about a 50% chance we have a SK. I agree that we should go after scum before SK, but I don't agree that we should assume there is no SK.

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 10 2014 05:08 GMT

#979

Also after looking at the TTTT options, I agree that scum probably has a roleblocker, that roleblocker probably blocked a townie, and since nobody besides Asuna has claimed a block, Asuna is probably town.

So by this, my Asuna+dynarri+Derrida idea is probably wrong.

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 10 2014 05:17 GMT

#981

On January 10 2014 14:12 Balla24 wrote:
Do you know something that we don't? At this point in town as town we assume that there is no SK, that's all there is to it. The only way you would know if there was an SK at this point is:

1. You are the SK.
2. You are mafia and your KP got blocked but SK's went through.

Here is what I know:

On January 09 2014 08:03 chinstrap wrote:
TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

3/6 scenarios have an SK. I don't know there is an SK, but I don't know that there is no SK. So I really disagree with "At this point in town as town we assume that there is no SK, that's all there is to it. " Why on earth should town assume that? Because the SK didn't kill the first night?

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 10 2014 05:19 GMT

#982

OBWOP
That should be "Because there was one presumed vig kill, one presumed scum kill, and zero presumed SK kill the first night?"

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 10 2014 05:30 GMT

#988

I guess we just disagree here.

On January 10 2014 14:20 Balla24 wrote:
There is no evidence pointing to an SK, so I find it really really weird that you are even considering it at this point.

So if we have an SK, they are at least half-way competent at lying low. I don't count lack of evidence for an SK as evidence against an SK.

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 10 2014 05:33 GMT

#989

On January 10 2014 14:29 Balla24 wrote:
Eish... this was bad play by me. Sorry if i just fucked up like i think I did.

Well ... I don't see it myself :/

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 10 2014 05:43 GMT

#993

About your previous question, I think the only two people who don't look better after the night are OWB and BigDad. I reread both of their filters, and the only thing that really pops out is that OWB keeps going after what in my read is a confirmed town (aka me). On the other hand, OWB's vote on dnyarri makes it unlikely that both OWB scum and dnyarri scum. That leaves BigDad ... doesn't seem like a very strong option to me. So I guess I need to look at all the instances of town cred gain and think about how plausible it is that a scum got away with each one. Anyway I'm happy with the dnyarri lynch, it looks like that is going to happen, and that will give is more concrete info to go on.

And to make it official
## Vote: dnyarri

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 10 2014 07:46 GMT

#999

On January 10 2014 14:44 Balla24 wrote:
How could you miss that bigdad also has a vote on dnyarri..

Oh somehow I had it in my mind that BigDad voted for Dragoon first lynch. My bad. Since dnyarri has such a big target painted on him today, I wasn't putting much weight on the fact that BigDad has his vote on dnyarri right now.

On January 10 2014 14:57 Balla24 wrote:
Also, I'm confused about this. How is this scummy at all by OWB? How is he supposed to know you're town?

Right now I expect scum would be trying to put some of the heat on townies. Right now from my point of view, OWB is doing this. He is doing something that would make sense for scum to do. Of course it is totally possible that OWB it town, and its not a particularly strong argument for OWB scum even from my perspective.

On January 10 2014 14:57 Balla24 wrote:
It's also weird that you find the need to even include this since the rest of your post you cancel out OWB as a scum....

It's weird that when I share my thoughts about someone, I include both sides I see, even the side that I ultimately disfavor?

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 10 2014 07:46 GMT

#1000

Also I'm starting to be bothered by the fact that if I assume dnyarri scum, there is no clear candidate for the remaining scum. And, if we assume dnyarri town, then the most suspicious looking people are me, OWB, and BigDad. All of us voted for dnyarri the first time round. This time BigDad and I have our votes on dnyarri again, and OWB has posted this

On January 10 2014 07:20 onlywonderboy wrote:
If we are less certain about dnyarri being scum I'm fine with finding a new target, but at this point even if we lynch him we find out a lot of information regardless of how he flips.

This basically says OWB is fine with a dnyarri lynch, but he is fine following town onto a new target, and then he justifies that dnyarri flipping town isn't all bad anyhow. Which seems like a pretty good way for scum to OK a vote on a townie while still distincing themselves a bit in the case the that townie actually does get lynched.

So now I'm looking at basically the same scenario that made me think Dragoon was town, where the target (last time Dragoon, this time dnyarri) doesn't look good in isolation but all the scummy feeling people (last time from my POV dnyarri, OWB, and sidesprang, this time from my POV OWB and BigDad, from town's view possibly me as well). I also think Chyz's last post makes a great case that the language of OWB's vote switch looks pretty scummy if dnyarri is town.

And to make this even more frustrating for me, I'm finding myself taking the position that I just criticized OWB for having: right now I'm ok with a dnyarri lynch, but also (for the reasons above) might be willing to consider a new target if we can find a good case. And part of the reason I'm ok with the dnyarri lynch is that even if he turns out to be town, he is the "best" townie to lynch because he hasn't and isn't going to make any significant contribution to town. Bleh.

Oh, and I'll throw this into the post too: I'm still not sure what to make of the kill on Jonny. Derrida makes a big post trying to cast suspicion on Balla and Jonny, and then scum kill Jonny and flip him town. So the scum were planning for one of their members to lose tons of credibility for seemingly no good reason? Were the scum just that uncoordinated?

All of these things are making me a bit uneasy right now. So, I'll go back to what I think is the simplest and most concrete piece of evidence we have right now: Derrida went for a pretty strong defense of dnyarri, then got surprise killed and flipped scum. I believe dnyarri is also scum.

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 10 2014 17:11 GMT

#1013

Mmm yeah I might be tunnel-visioning on dnyarri. Ok. You guys have convinced me that OWB is the better of the two.

##Unvote
##Vote: onlywonderboy

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 10 2014 18:02 GMT

#1019

Well, I thought more about my "simple and concrete evidence", and came up with this interpretation: at the time of Derrida's post, it seemed like a day 2 dnyarri lynch was in the making. If dnyarri is town, then Derrida knows that a townie is probably going to be the next day's lynch, and sees the opportunity to get some town cred by defending dnyarri (to no avail), and then getting to say I told you so. And if I frame the dnyarri scum scenario as "hey I need to go all in defending my scum mate dnyarri even though he is probably going to get lynched anyway and then I'll look bad", well, the dnyarri town option starts to look a lot more plausible.

So I think I need to retract my position that dnyarri is a strong lynch candidate, and if OWB flips scum then dnyarri actually looks quite town (based on OWB's day one vote).

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 10 2014 18:03 GMT

#1020

EBWOP for filter readers, this was in response to

On January 11 2014 02:33 TheChyz wrote:
DW, do you still think dnyarri is also scum, why or why not?

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 10 2014 19:07 GMT

#1026

On January 11 2014 03:49 dnyarri wrote:
About his comment on death of JonnyLaw, BigDad said this:

<quote>
He facilitated discussion through his aggressive play. Day one for JonnyLaw was pretty full on, check it out. He went after TheChyz, theDragoon, BigDad, Asuna and OWB.
</quote>

I looked at JonnyLaw's filter and it's clear that JonnyLaw was actively going after BigDad too until theDragoon and later I got all the attention. Yet BigDad didn't mention that. Did he try to hide the fact that he was suspicious too? I would have expected "transparency" from BigDad since he was supposedly promoting it. JonnyLaw's death is easily explained if BigDad is scum.

BigDad did mention it?

Day_Walker

104 Posts

January 12 2014 19:31 GMT

#1160

Sorry I've been such a lousy contributor the last couple days. I'm getting ready to fly across the Pacific ^_^
I have a 12 hour layover in Tokyo, so hopefully I will be able to get some internet there, catch back up on things, and make some good posts.

Until then,
##Vote: BigDad

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