Newbie Mini Mafia LI - Page 2

I think OWB looks better after this, conditioned on a scum read for dnyarri. OWB's switch came two minutes before the deadline, and turned a 5-7 vote into a 6-6 vote. To me it looks like OWB must have been ok with turning a "Dragoon probably dies" situation into a "dnyarri might actually die" situation, and was thus probably ok with turning a Dragoon lynch into a dnyarri lynch. This doesn't make sense if both OWB and dnyarri are scum, so dnyarri scum -> OWB town.

Actually after going back and reading this post by BigDad, similar reasoning goes for him as well, with the caveat that a dnyarri lynch looked somewhat less likely when BigDad switched. Still, I think dnyarri scum -> BigDad town.

I think suki and Balla look better after this, unconditionally. If I'm scum and I'm watching a vote swing away from a townie, I don't think I would impulsively blurt out an "Argh what the hell" or a "NO FUCK OFF YOU GUYS", regardless of the new target's alignment.

When Jonny made this post, I assumed that he was seeing what I saw. But he still hasn't said anything about why he thought dnyarri's vote was relevant, and since right now he seems like the only person besides me who cares about that fact, I really want to know if he cares for the same reason as me or for some other reason.

I've already given a pretty complete picture of what I was seeing, spread out across several posts. In retrospect though, my posts came out in kind of a confusing order, so I'll try to present my ideas in an order that makes more sense.



This is where I was coming from the whole day, and I wish I had talked about it earlier. As the lynch built on theDragoon, I wasn't really sold. But suki and Jonny were making decent arguments, I didn't see anything Dragoon had done that made him look particularly not scummy, and I certainly wasn't going to try and defend Dragoon without good evidence when the scum-buddy idea was running around and for all I knew he was about to get lynched and flip scum, although I did indirectly defend him here and here. Speaking of that last link, the fact that Jonny and suki
1) were providing a lot of thrust to the Dragoon lynch
2) both had seemingly contradictory reads on BigDad and Dragoon
3) didn't provide any particularly good explanation for that fact
really nagged me.

At this point I'm thinking that Dragoon could easily turn out to be scum, but at the same time he didn't stand out as convincingly more scummy than half the other players. There was no way that I could vote for theDragoon and feel good about it. I wish that at this point I had said the things in the post I quoted above, but at the time I didn't really understand that I might have a more accurate read on Dragoon than the rest of town, so instead I said this:



If I had actively suspected that Dragoon was town at this point, I wouldn't have have waited the nearly two hours that I did. Anyway, I went back to two previous scum suspects, and came up with this:


It was in the process of researching this post that I realized dnyarri cast the first vote on Dragoon, and this is when I started suspecting that Dragoon was town. I mentioned this idea in my next post

and then elaborate on it in the post after that (this is part 2 of the quote I started with, minus the bandwagon bit):

What a load of steaming shit. I can't have a constructive conversation with someone who just wants to wring their hands and cry scum while refusing to give substantive responses to my questions, and who is unable or unwilling to acknowledge the difference between me having reasons that he disagrees with and me having no reasons whatsoever. Such a fucking disappointment that this guy has to be our IC.