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Day_Walker
104 Posts
On January 07 2014 19:47 chinstrap wrote: I also think that this discussion about lurkers is outrageously counterproductive and gives (or is) a great scum distancing ploy so please drop it. I hear you, but do you actively disagree with any of my lurker reads, particularly the one on dnyarri? | ||
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Day_Walker
104 Posts
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Day_Walker
104 Posts
On January 07 2014 21:44 chinstrap wrote: he just makes a epic long post that says nothing but I want to lunch lurkers cause they lurk even though I dont have a town read on theDragoon. I want to lynch a particular lurker name dnyarri, based on reasons that I gave in my post. Do you agree or disagree with those reasons? | ||
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Day_Walker
104 Posts
On January 07 2014 22:10 chinstrap wrote: My whole though process around this is based upon the fact that DW could only possibly be making these conclusions if he was POSITIVE of theDragoons alignment (either scum or town it doesnt matter). He claims to come to this while having no real position on theDragoon which just makes little to no sense. The only way he has this information is if he is mafia. Hence, he is mafia. Do "these conclusions" include dnyarri likely scum? | ||
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Day_Walker
104 Posts
On January 07 2014 22:04 chinstrap wrote: I think you barly made a case Do you think that my ideas are wrong? Do you think that my ideas are reasonable, but not sufficient for a scum read? | ||
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Day_Walker
104 Posts
On January 07 2014 22:26 chinstrap wrote: These conclusions are that dnyarri is a better lynch target for what is a lot of nothing analysis and lurking, compared to the scummiest looking guy in the thread till now. Ok suppose I don't have a scum read on "the scummiest looking guy in the thread til now". Suppose I find the reasons that I gave in my post to be convincing evidence that dnyarri may be scum. Then I would conclude that dnyarri is a better lynch, and there is no need to invoke the idea that I know everyone's alignment. Do you agree? | ||
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Day_Walker
104 Posts
On January 07 2014 22:27 chinstrap wrote: You full on ignore a fucking martyr but a lurking = lynch Can you please stop putting "lurking = lynch" into my mouth? I'm not saying that. | ||
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Day_Walker
104 Posts
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Day_Walker
104 Posts
On January 07 2014 22:36 chinstrap wrote: and your vote says lurker = lynch I don't need to do that for you Ok. I'm done for now. | ||
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Day_Walker
104 Posts
On January 08 2014 10:12 suki wrote: My problem with this idea is that if it really was a scum plan, he would have at least posted this an hour, and probably a few hours before the deadline. I think the fact that it was so last minute that there was no possible scum motive for posting that kind of goodbye post was what triggered Jonny and OWB to make the instant decision to switch. On January 08 2014 06:44 JonnyLaw wrote: Ugh, just realized dnyarri was the first vote on dragoon. Fuck, sorry I got here so late. We done screwed up. ##unvote ##vote: dnyarri I think Jonny made it pretty clear why he switched, and it's not for the reason you gave. | ||
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Day_Walker
104 Posts
Oh oops. I thought suki was referring to this post, not this one. My bad. I take back "it's not for the reason you gave". Still, I think he post does make it clear that his vote is also based on dnyarri's vote, which suki completely failed to mention. And I want to ask you On January 08 2014 06:45 Balla24 wrote: How the fuck is dnyarri's vote even relevant? Dnyarri's vote meant that there was a relationship between dnyarri's alignment and Dragoon's alignment: the almost certainly weren't both scum. How is that not relevant? | ||
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Day_Walker
104 Posts
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Day_Walker
104 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + I think OWB looks better after this, conditioned on a scum read for dnyarri. OWB's switch came two minutes before the deadline, and turned a 5-7 vote into a 6-6 vote. To me it looks like OWB must have been ok with turning a "Dragoon probably dies" situation into a "dnyarri might actually die" situation, and was thus probably ok with turning a Dragoon lynch into a dnyarri lynch. This doesn't make sense if both OWB and dnyarri are scum, so dnyarri scum -> OWB town. Actually after going back and reading this post by BigDad, similar reasoning goes for him as well, with the caveat that a dnyarri lynch looked somewhat less likely when BigDad switched. Still, I think dnyarri scum -> BigDad town. I think suki and Balla look better after this, unconditionally. If I'm scum and I'm watching a vote swing away from a townie, I don't think I would impulsively blurt out an "Argh what the hell" or a "NO FUCK OFF YOU GUYS", regardless of the new target's alignment. When Jonny made this post, I assumed that he was seeing what I saw. But he still hasn't said anything about why he thought dnyarri's vote was relevant, and since right now he seems like the only person besides me who cares about that fact, I really want to know if he cares for the same reason as me or for some other reason. Explanation of my thoughts on the day at large: + Show Spoiler + I've already given a pretty complete picture of what I was seeing, spread out across several posts. In retrospect though, my posts came out in kind of a confusing order, so I'll try to present my ideas in an order that makes more sense. On January 07 2014 21:20 Day_Walker wrote: Judging by his actions, I don't have a strong read on Dragoon The evidence against Dragoon looked very different to me than the rest of town. When people were talking about me and Dragoon as scum buddies, and then accusing us of trying to distance ourselves, I was the only townie who could read those posts and say "lol no". When Dragoon was defending himself against these accusation, I was the only townie who could read those posts and say "yup, this is 100% a guy defending himself against some false accusations". I think this in turn affected the weight I gave to other accusations against him. For example, I think most other people saw his snap OWB vote as scummy. Since I knew that OWB's scum-buddy accusation was false, I thought "well, I can't really tell if this is a frustrated townie lashing out or a cornered scum lashing out". The way Town has interacted with Dragoon over the last day has made it difficult for me to get a good read on him, because I'm not sure how to tell the difference between frustrated townie and cornered scum. This is where I was coming from the whole day, and I wish I had talked about it earlier. As the lynch built on theDragoon, I wasn't really sold. But suki and Jonny were making decent arguments, I didn't see anything Dragoon had done that made him look particularly not scummy, and I certainly wasn't going to try and defend Dragoon without good evidence when the scum-buddy idea was running around and for all I knew he was about to get lynched and flip scum, although I did indirectly defend him here and here. Speaking of that last link, the fact that Jonny and suki 1) were providing a lot of thrust to the Dragoon lynch 2) both had seemingly contradictory reads on BigDad and Dragoon 3) didn't provide any particularly good explanation for that fact really nagged me. At this point I'm thinking that Dragoon could easily turn out to be scum, but at the same time he didn't stand out as convincingly more scummy than half the other players. There was no way that I could vote for theDragoon and feel good about it. I wish that at this point I had said the things in the post I quoted above, but at the time I didn't really understand that I might have a more accurate read on Dragoon than the rest of town, so instead I said this: On January 07 2014 15:41 Day_Walker wrote: I don't like the lynch on theDragoon. I'll give my reasoning in a bit, but I want hear more from Dragoon first. If I had actively suspected that Dragoon was town at this point, I wouldn't have have waited the nearly two hours that I did. Anyway, I went back to two previous scum suspects, and came up with this: On January 07 2014 17:33 Day_Walker wrote: Ok Dragoon seems more or less done talking, and I want to hear Balla's take on my thoughts. Let's talk about lurkers. dnyarri + Show Spoiler + Three total posts. I flagged his first post as potentially scum, and given his follpw-up it looks even worse to me now than it did then. His second post switches his lynch vote from TheChyz to Dragoon: On January 06 2014 23:43 dnyarri wrote: Actually I have changed my primary target of suspicion from TheChyz to TheDragoon mainly because of this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=434723¤tpage=16#316 TheDragoon stated that Day_Walker seemed like innocent even though Day_Walker had only posted one list and nothing else. Day_Walker's only vote is against TheChyz which doesn't mean much since TheChyz is easy bandwagoning target. TheDragoon's post give me the impression that he wants to slow voting down by defending (random) people while going to TheChyz-bandwagon and attacking nobody else. TheChyz is confusing but I'm not sure if it's carelessness or risk taking. My logic for calling him scum was somewhat faulted too I think. ##unvote ##vote: TheDragoon This feels like rather weak reasoning to me, and I'm not sure the part I bolded - which seems to be sharing his thought process from evidence to vote - even makes sense. On one hand, it's hard to call him a bandwagoner because he placed to first vote on Dragoon. On the other hand, between dnyarri's first and second post we had the IC retract his Chyz vote, and BigDad label me and Dragoon as scummy. The wind was definitely blowing away from Chyz and towards Dragoon before dnyarri changed his vote. Dnyarri's last post is fine, and I agree with a lot of the content, but it was prompted by an accusation by Balla of rehashing and not talking about enough people. A fine post, but one that was prompted, rather than spontaneous. sidesprang + Show Spoiler + Three posts the first day. Two of them are spent agreeing with Balla, the last one gives the consensus view of OWB and Chyz. Comes in late on the second day and drops this: On January 07 2014 10:44 sidesprang wrote: Been away most of the day sry. Skimming through the thread now. Came to this. Voting for yourself make it an autovote for me. If you are town please fight for your life, we have everything to gain. If town we will hopefully see it, if scum we will hopefully be more sure you are scum after your defence. ##Vote theDragoon I'll be catching up for a bit, if anyone have any questions feel free to ask I'll be around for a bit. But gonna use some time catching up as a lot have been posted. What's this? An autovote that absolves him of any need to justify hopping on carriage #9 of the lynch train? How convenient. Any desire to make a substantive comment on the day that he missed? Apparently not. onlywonderboy + Show Spoiler + Here is my last post on him: On January 07 2014 11:41 Day_Walker wrote: @Suki @Balla24 Here is my line of thinking on OBW: After day 1, his filter had three posts. One cautionary comment about reading Balla, one good point about the IC and a promise to be a good townie, and one question about policy debates and scum hunting. All fine things to post, and he gets some good feedback (e.g. my list). But these are also very safe posts, and that's all we get for the first 24 hours. I can read this as a scum thinking "great, said some things, got people to like me, now I can let them argue about Chyz for a day". This was the point at which I suggested OBW as a possible lynch target. His posting for the next day starts with the first big reaction to the me + Dragoon scum pair idea that BigDad brought up, and then he basically rides that idea for the rest of the day. So the meat of his contribution over the last two days is one read which I know (although Town doesn't) to be false, and it's a read that came served on a platter. From my perspective, OBW's actions makes a lot of sense as scum. I'll just add to this by noting that OWB placed vote #3 on Dragoon. I've said nothing about Dragoon's behavior. I don't think I have to. Based on the actions of other players, I'm fairly confident that we just saw the mafia run a bandwagon. I'm not dismissing the reads of suki and Jonny (the only two people who have made substantial arguments for lynching Dragoon). But if Dragoon is scum, we can get him later. He is at least willing to be around and talk with the Town. And most importantly, we have better lynch targets. I ordered the lurkers from most to least scummy, and I think that either dnyarri or sidesprang would make a solid lynch. ## Vote dnyarri It was in the process of researching this post that I realized dnyarri cast the first vote on Dragoon, and this is when I started suspecting that Dragoon was town. I mentioned this idea in my next post On January 07 2014 19:37 Day_Walker wrote: Remember that dnyarri cast the first vote for theDragoon. If dnyarri flips scum, that gives us a huge amount of information about Dragoon (if you still think Dragoon is scum, you have to explain why the scum were bussing from the very first vote). and then elaborate on it in the post after that (this is part 2 of the quote I started with, minus the bandwagon bit): On January 07 2014 21:20 Day_Walker wrote: Judging by the entire game, I lean town for Dragoon. This most heavily rests on my scum read for dnyarri, and the fact that dnyarri placed the very first for Dragoon. Based on the vote, I think it unlikely that both dnyarri AND Dragoon are scum, and this turns my scum read for dnyarri into a town read for Dragoon. And for the reasons I just gave, this sounds a lot more plausible to me than to any other townie. To summarize: I am not adamant that Dragoon is town, although I suspect he is. I am adamant that dnyarri is a better lynch target. I my read on Dragoon and the situation in general has been influenced by information available only to scum, me, and Dragoon, and I understand that the rest of Town may not share my views. So that's where I'm at. Hopefully this clarifies my train of thought and my current read on the situation. I still need to go back and read a bunch of filters and think more carefully about the people I don't have a good read on, but it's sleepy time and I'll have to do that tomorrow. And I guess I'll comment on my exchange with chinstrap: + Show Spoiler + What a load of steaming shit. I can't have a constructive conversation with someone who just wants to wring their hands and cry scum while refusing to give substantive responses to my questions, and who is unable or unwilling to acknowledge the difference between me having reasons that he disagrees with and me having no reasons whatsoever. Such a fucking disappointment that this guy has to be our IC. | ||
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Day_Walker
104 Posts
On January 09 2014 01:49 chinstrap wrote: @Day_Walker Can you please give me some detail on your rationale towards theDragoon before the vote and also your opinions towards what happened with the attempted switch PLUS the remaining people who stayed on theDragoon and got him lynched? I also an answer to the why dnyarri was your #1 scum (which you never gave) would be appreciated. On January 07 2014 22:34 chinstrap wrote: Your ideas basically don't matter. | ||
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Day_Walker
104 Posts
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Day_Walker
104 Posts
On January 09 2014 01:56 Balla24 wrote: Let's stop these personal attacks before they go too far pls. They're hard to read and they're obviously hurtful. It'll just make things emotional. Yeah but the problem with this nice polite ragequit was that it left all my feels unvented :D | ||
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Day_Walker
104 Posts
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Day_Walker
104 Posts
@Jonny I want to hear more about this post: On January 08 2014 06:44 JonnyLaw wrote: Ugh, just realized dnyarri was the first vote on dragoon. Fuck, sorry I got here so late. We done screwed up. ##unvote ##vote: dnyarri You seem to be the only person besides me who thought that dnyarri's vote was important, and I'm curious why. | ||
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Day_Walker
104 Posts
On January 09 2014 02:31 Derrida wrote: Of course you would hate that post because it points to two scums as two scums for the first time in the game. The only two things that do not make sense in that lynch for me are Jonny's switch and your reaction. Also because it is full of statements which are factually incorrect. You have not read the thread carefully. | ||
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Day_Walker
104 Posts
Then Asuna points this out On January 07 2014 03:45 Asuna wrote: And finally... I'm not on Derrida's list D: and Derrida comes back with On January 07 2014 06:51 Derrida wrote: @Asuna, I missed you out in my list. What do you think about me? This is an awkward response, and it seems like Derrida really didn't want to give a read on Asuna. So right now my read is Asuna + dnyarri for scum, and I would be happy to lynch either one, with my preference begin a dnyarri lynch. Assuming Asuna+dnyarri+Derrida scum, I want to look at dnyarri's one big post: On January 07 2014 05:01 dnyarri wrote: Asuna is somewhat suspicious to me, but not on top of my list. Asuna's reasoning for accusing JonnyLaw seem pretty weak, like Day_Walker said and Asuna doesn't elaborate on that which seems like Asuna doesn't want to say anything that could be used against themselves. Derridan is suspicious to me because Derridan gives RED for sidesprang while giving Onlyboywonder ORANGE even though both have been very quiet. Also I don't understand why Derridan rates Day_Walker's list so high. Under my hypothesis, this shows dnyarri willing to name the other two scum as suspicious. But dnyarri also says On January 07 2014 05:01 dnyarri wrote: sidesprang is so quiet that I barely noticed them. Wouldn't mind lynching sidesprang but I'm not convinced sidesprang is scum. After all, I'm pretty quiet too. Onlywonderboy hasn't said anything for long time so I'm ready to lynch them but let's see if they become more active before night. First onlywonderboy defends Balla24, which I find moderately suspicious. Onlywonderboy hasn't said anything meaningful so the two people he wouldn't mind lynching and the two people he actually did vote for are not scum. I think dnyarri's behavior is consistent with the Asuna+dnyarri+Derrida theory, but it's not a home run. Thoughts? | ||
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