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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 06:41 GMT
#1065
On November 06 2013 23:13 Sylencia wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 06 2013 03:41 Cephiro wrote:
Aiight. I skimmed through the new posts, but going to read them with a proper thought now. One idea that I thought of is what I wanted to share though.


10 / 3
9 / 3
8 / 2
7 / 2
6 / 1
5 / 1
4 / 0
3 / 0
2 / 0

Amount of Town / Amount of Blues elected.

Basically, I'm thinking we should no-lynch today. That way we are able to have a 3-blue election again tomorrow, providing none of today's get sniped. It also leaves us one more town player for scum to target during the night, making them a little less likely to hit blues. This will basically give us a +1 blue per cycle until snipe or mislynch. At the moment I'm considering it as a fairly good option, but for today only. (We're certainly not no-lynching multiple times as it's our only way of killing scum.) With everyone seemingly all over the place, swinging from target to target, as much as I'd like to believe I can't see us lynching scum today. No-lynch is better than mislynch.

1) We get +1 blue nominated per cycle until snipe or mislynch
2) Scum has 1 more target to choose who to kill and/or try to snipe, making it a little more hard for them to decide.
3) We will have more information to get a proper, scum lynch on D2 to start it off with.

These benefits are made under the assumption that we are mislynching today, which unfortunately looks extremely likely to happen in my eyes. Give these points a thought.


At this stage, town isn't in the best shape. I honestly don't think that a no-lynch is really an option because we needed information. Getting an extra witchcraft vote is absolutely useless if we can't take full advantage of them, since the chance of striking gold with a DT check is fairly low, and even then you can't actually reveal that easily for there'll be a blue vig waiting to revenge kill you if you do reveal.

His reasoning of town swinging around and having no-lynch being better than lynching someone is both a way to try stifle discussion by making everyone take the lazy route, and him also trying to take the lazy way out of not having to commit to voting seriously.

One has to note that since this is majority lynch, mislynching is almost always going to leave some scum exposed when flipped, so it's a fair play to try stop that from happening since they stop information from coming out and they get a free NK.

Show nested quote +
On November 06 2013 06:45 hzflank wrote:
On November 06 2013 06:42 thrawn2112 wrote:
On November 06 2013 06:40 hzflank wrote:
On November 06 2013 06:38 Umasi wrote:
On November 06 2013 06:32 hzflank wrote:
On November 06 2013 06:26 Umasi wrote:
idk, the last post by hzflank does not look scummy though, he asserts that he doesn't want to vote ET, and he backs off on me..
kinda like, a lack of self preservation


Oh don't worry, people's votes on me make no sense, therefore I am relying on them not sticking.

For example, WoS tends to think that people are town when they are reading the game in a similar fashion to him, right? Remember when I pushed you and WoS said "I was going to do that" or when I read Syl and WoS said they he read it the same way I did? WoS does not think I am scum, WoS wants me to be scum because I offended him and/or he saw my ego in full effect when he coached me. His vote can still change.

As for Thrawn and ET, well they are defaulting to me because they have no one better to vote for and they did not like my case on Sn0. The thing is, if you read me carefully you will noticed that my case on Sn0 was never meant to be pushed. In that portion of the game I actually thought that Umasi and ET were scum. The case on Sn0 was an attempt to engage him which failed. The case was also an attempt to make people view him in a more negative light so that I could see what people said about him when he appeared to be a somewhat easy lynch.

People don't really think that I am scum yet still want to lynch me D1. Reminds me of the White flag game that just ended


But there isn't someone else that'll gain enough traction in time, that's my issue. It's not that I think you're scum, you just aren't town enough to warrant a no-lynch.


But on the other hand I guarantee you that there are some people who are present but lurking, since it is deadline time and majority lynch. So there are some people who are present but will just casually go through with my lynch. They'll probably move their votes soon, too.


right now your best chance of living is to explain why you want sylencia to die


I already explained it. Sylencia posted a several paragraph's about Cephiro's take on WoS. The entire point of what Syl posted can only possibly of existed if Syl thought that Ceph was scum, because Syl thought that it was an intentional tunnel upon entry to the game (only scum do that). Therefore, in Syl's mind Ceph must of been scum. Syl never played as if he thought that Ceph was scum, therefore what Syl wrote about Ceph was fake.


No, I wasn't certain what I had said was exactly right and so I posted it out there to get someone's (ideally Ceph's) thoughts on it. During that time I looked at other people since that's more productive than hoping for an answer. I get how it looks shady though.

About the lynch, is it not possible that we can agree on targets > 15 minutes before deadline? The last minute votes and switching makes it kind of difficult to interpret many of the players' intentions since so many are "here is my vote so we don't no-lynch" which is atrocious honestly.

Then comes the hammer vote:

Show nested quote +
On November 06 2013 06:59 Cephiro wrote:
##unvote
##vote: gumshoe


I swear this is gonna end up badly.


What happened to his reasoning above? No where does he ever say "actually, bad plan guys, let's lynch." He just hammers, even though he can see the town death coming.

From my perspective, he was in a pretty rocky situation anyways:
- Doesn't vote: He'd cop a bunch of backlash from the players who were active at the time, and it'd make him look suspicious for not hammering.
- Does vote: Still looks shady because he's mentioned the above and completely backtracks and hammers.
That said, if he truly believed what he wrote above he would've stuck with it but I'm guessing he forgot he even mentioned the plan and just went with the flow.

Show nested quote +
On November 06 2013 07:06 Cephiro wrote:
.... Yeah. Call me stupid for not stubbornly going against the majority.

Well, at least I showed fellow town I'm ready to co-operate even if I don't completely agree on something. Not sure if that's a good or a bad thing to be honest.

Also I'm gonna go sleep right now to get my rhythm fixed, I'm tired. I'll respond all the "lolcephhammer" -accusations that will surely come in the morning.


1st sentence: The point is you still did.
2nd sentence: LOL. Honestly I would've wanted to shoot him on the spot for that if I was a vig Following town like that 'despite what you think' is more of a scum play than a town play in most cases. You co-operate because it's convenient for you to kill off a townie.

Not to mention if you look at Ceph's filter and search for mentions of gumshoe, it sounds like he has a more townish feel for gumshoe, and yet he kills him off. That's ridiculous. Of course, we don't know what his read was because he specifically said that he wouldn't reveal anything unless we asked but it's a bit late for that now.

Basically I don't see a townie writing this.

My predictions for scum group are: {Ceph, ET, Sn0, hzflank} - pick 3.

I haven't covered the last 2 that much, but PoE and whatnot. I'm more worried about hzflank just because almost every game if you avoid the D1 lynch you'll get a free ride for a few days, which could explain last minute train on gumshoe.

Skimming sn0 shows he was one of the lazy voters for the lynch, and hasn't really pushed for anyone except OO, but never votes him or makes a solid case against him. At this point I'd say he's more likely to flip scum than hz, but I need to properly read his filter at some point.



See I dont get why people are jumping all over him for his ceph vote he has clearly put ceph as scum almost the entire game (I disagree with him its a bit odd ceph talks about a no lynch, and is then the hammer, but being the hammer is less scummy then jumping on in the middle imo.)

There really isnt much to go off of with him, and after playing scum with him, he seemed alot more active but that is a null tell as I have only played that one game with him.
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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 07:14 GMT
#1067
Just look at ETs case on me and then his unvote he contridicts himself over and over he looks fairly straight forward this game.
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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 07:18 GMT
#1068
ET overreacted to pressure that game, nothing like when people were talking about his lynch this game.
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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 10:12 GMT
#1077
On November 08 2013 18:26 Koshi wrote:
I skimmed over everything but haven't read anything. At least that's how it feels.



First impressions?
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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 10:19 GMT
#1079
On November 08 2013 19:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am basically waiting for Koshi/hopeless to catch up and other people to post.

Atm the game looks like rayn & thrawn talking and other people lurking. If this does not change we might aswell do the infamous Blazinghand randomizer (current hits-on-scum-rate 0/3 vanillatown,cop,candies) and pray we hit scum.

WoS made a good post and went off again. Onegu hasn't done anything to make me take my vote off him. Umasi made some good posts. So did Vanesco. Sylencia made more meh posts. hopeless is hopeless and mia. Same with Cephiro. Koshi is catching up.

bleh..



Its thrawn, you, and me basicly going around in circles with each other, and I am tunneled on my scum team atm (rayn,koshi,sn0). And no one else has much to add.
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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 15:58 GMT
#1116
Ok Im here for now.

##UNVOTE

##VOTE KOSHI


My main reason for voteing rayn over hz was rayn was the more dangerous player, and I do think rayn is more dangerous than koshi, the gap isnt as big. Im open to voteing sn0 also but I wont be here for deadline. Im going to go over a few filters before I sleep. Also rayn Im not makeing up scum reads on you, Im telling it like I see it, you may not agree but Im not makeing falsehoods.
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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 15:59 GMT
#1118
On November 08 2013 15:13 Onegu wrote:
Also in the above post it looks like you know I am town and am fustrated I am tunneling you with little evidence. Since the wording I have decided you are scum, comes from someone who you would think is town.



Also rayn this is now one of the bigger reasons I think you are scum.
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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 16:01 GMT
#1120
On November 09 2013 00:58 Sn0_Man wrote:
PS: If you think about how this game works it makes the most sense for scum to fire off AT LEAST 1 silver bullet the first night when there are 3 blue roles. Not only does this get you ahead early and hopefully give you thread control, but it also has pretty damn good chances of hitting a blue compared to when there is only 2 or 1 (and 1 comes pretty soon). Plus the more KP scum gets out early the less blues there are in the following days due to how the witchraft voting works.

It is also optimal for scum to shoot during the night since their shots resolve at phase-end (aka same day/night as the shot) which means any investigative role will not be able to reveal results. So I EXPECTED multiple deaths N1.



No it doesnt. Missing a shot would be devestateing at this point for scum. There is no way they made a shot last night. They want to make sure thier shot hits, not shoot a random shot off n1.
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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 16:14 GMT
#1132
On November 09 2013 01:05 WaveofShadow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 09 2013 01:02 Umasi wrote:
I'm not going to be around for the lynch today, will check in as frequently as I get the chance.
##unvote
##vote: cephiro

I'm most comfortable with Cephiro out of the people who look likely to get lynched, although I should be able to consolidate should he not be close to getting lynched.

WHAT THE FUCK IS GOING ON
Has absolutely everyone put their pants on their heads this game?
Umasi how in the fuck do you figure Cephiro is likely to be lynched today?

Onegu where the fuck did that Koshi vote come from?

Sn0 why the fuck would scum risk a non-refundable shot this early in the game if the kill is in no way guaranteed for multiple reasons? It's not a regular vig shot so there are REALLY good reasons not to take it early.



I said it already I have hzflank as scum with rayn, I voted rayn because he was the bigger threat, koshi is a better player than hz, so I am fine voteing him. Also my case is a bit stronger on hz than rayn, still fairly certain they are both scum though.


@cephiro what is your updated reads, do you still think WoS is scum?
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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 16:17 GMT
#1135
Sn0 why would scum not wait for more info to take a shot, it doesnt make any sense.
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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 16:19 GMT
#1137
On November 09 2013 01:15 Hopeless1der wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 09 2013 01:11 Sn0_Man wrote:
I'm not insisting retards, I'm trying to figure out.

I retract nothing, onegu martyrs and plays the "no-defence" scum style all the time.

Quotes, filters and alignments for the games in question. You wanted to lynch the guy. Prove he martyr's ONLY as scum and NEVER as town.



This is the first time I have martyred as town, and I dont martyr all the time as scum I think I have only done it twice as scum and I never self voted.
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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 16:20 GMT
#1140
Hopeless what is your take on hzflank/koshi?
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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 16:22 GMT
#1141
On November 09 2013 01:20 Sn0_Man wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 09 2013 01:17 Onegu wrote:
Sn0 why would scum not wait for more info to take a shot, it doesnt make any sense.

Cuz they don't get more info. But they DO get less targets. And they deny themselves the chance to cut town's blue roles down almost instantly.



Its getting cutdown anyway with the NK. And a random shot just doesnt make sense imo.
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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 16:27 GMT
#1144
On November 09 2013 01:25 WaveofShadow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 09 2013 01:20 Sn0_Man wrote:
On November 09 2013 01:17 Onegu wrote:
Sn0 why would scum not wait for more info to take a shot, it doesnt make any sense.

Cuz they don't get more info. But they DO get less targets. And they deny themselves the chance to cut town's blue roles down almost instantly.

Blue roles are already cut down to 2 after a mislynch. They have ZERO reason to shoot since an extra kill wouldn't cut them down any further (maybe? too lazy to find that chart right now, i could be wrong), but even more so, ZERO reason to shoot because as the game goes on town have less options aside from really obvious townies as to who to vote for for witchcraft, otherwise their votes go to scum---it's win-win for them. Even if my logic is bad here and there is some good reason for scum to shoot, the below is why I absolutely believe that there is no way OO was shot by bluevig.

KISS rule always always fucking applies. Which is a more simple case here Sn0? That scum shot OO with a bluevig and KP went into either vet or JK protect? Or simply no shot and KP on a guy who wasn't likely to be protected or voted into having power?




No your logic is good and I agree with you 100%
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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 16:33 GMT
#1152
On November 09 2013 01:28 Koshi wrote:
Onegu, I am not scum m8.
Question to you: Did you feel like hzflank was invested in this game? Regardless of alignment.



Yes he was at the start, maybe my getting angry at him made him lose intrest. But at the start I do believe he was.
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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 16:37 GMT
#1155
On November 07 2013 18:49 Onegu wrote:
Because Im 85~% sure they are both scum and want to get rid of the dangerous one first.



Much earlier in the day when talking with thrawn about rayn and hz before he was replaced. So dont even say I am just randomly throwing my vote on people, I have called hz scum since day 1.
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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 16:55 GMT
#1164
On November 09 2013 01:53 WaveofShadow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 09 2013 01:48 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am not saying Cephiro is a good lynch, i am saying i can follow Umasi's thought process from his posts.
How on earth can you think he is better lynch than Onegu. Fucking look at his filter?!?!?!?
The dude makes a "yolo these guys locked scum here is reasoning because this other guy is scum but this guy more dangerous but i donät really know why this other dude is scum after all but tyeah these both guys scum and this guy maybe litte bit better than that guy was but yeah he postd scummy word yes 100% lock in lynch go vote yes nocomment on anyone else peace vote rayn no maybe koshi".

WTF WOS?

I completely understand his thinking as convoluted as it may seem to you.
The only thing I worry about is falling into the trap I usually fall into. I can't rule out bias I suppose because it's true, there is nothing objectively towny about his play.

How about this, Rayn? you say you can catch him every game he pulls this shit. We lynch him today. If you were right, fucking fantastic and you're basically confirmed town to me (for reasons unrelated to the lynch specifically---you and I both know you're capable of bussing hard) If you were wrong, we lynch you next, k?



I agree to this
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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 17:01 GMT
#1166
On November 09 2013 01:58 WaveofShadow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 09 2013 01:55 Onegu wrote:
On November 09 2013 01:53 WaveofShadow wrote:
On November 09 2013 01:48 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am not saying Cephiro is a good lynch, i am saying i can follow Umasi's thought process from his posts.
How on earth can you think he is better lynch than Onegu. Fucking look at his filter?!?!?!?
The dude makes a "yolo these guys locked scum here is reasoning because this other guy is scum but this guy more dangerous but i donät really know why this other dude is scum after all but tyeah these both guys scum and this guy maybe litte bit better than that guy was but yeah he postd scummy word yes 100% lock in lynch go vote yes nocomment on anyone else peace vote rayn no maybe koshi".

WTF WOS?

I completely understand his thinking as convoluted as it may seem to you.
The only thing I worry about is falling into the trap I usually fall into. I can't rule out bias I suppose because it's true, there is nothing objectively towny about his play.

How about this, Rayn? you say you can catch him every game he pulls this shit. We lynch him today. If you were right, fucking fantastic and you're basically confirmed town to me (for reasons unrelated to the lynch specifically---you and I both know you're capable of bussing hard) If you were wrong, we lynch you next, k?



I agree to this

lol you would, but then again I'm not asking you. Didn't Rayn already bring up an example of you pulling this exact same shit as scum?


Nope
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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 17:12 GMT
#1173
On November 09 2013 02:10 WaveofShadow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 09 2013 02:01 Onegu wrote:
On November 09 2013 01:58 WaveofShadow wrote:
On November 09 2013 01:55 Onegu wrote:
On November 09 2013 01:53 WaveofShadow wrote:
On November 09 2013 01:48 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am not saying Cephiro is a good lynch, i am saying i can follow Umasi's thought process from his posts.
How on earth can you think he is better lynch than Onegu. Fucking look at his filter?!?!?!?
The dude makes a "yolo these guys locked scum here is reasoning because this other guy is scum but this guy more dangerous but i donät really know why this other dude is scum after all but tyeah these both guys scum and this guy maybe litte bit better than that guy was but yeah he postd scummy word yes 100% lock in lynch go vote yes nocomment on anyone else peace vote rayn no maybe koshi".

WTF WOS?

I completely understand his thinking as convoluted as it may seem to you.
The only thing I worry about is falling into the trap I usually fall into. I can't rule out bias I suppose because it's true, there is nothing objectively towny about his play.

How about this, Rayn? you say you can catch him every game he pulls this shit. We lynch him today. If you were right, fucking fantastic and you're basically confirmed town to me (for reasons unrelated to the lynch specifically---you and I both know you're capable of bussing hard) If you were wrong, we lynch you next, k?



I agree to this

lol you would, but then again I'm not asking you. Didn't Rayn already bring up an example of you pulling this exact same shit as scum?


Nope

I can't fuckign find it. I'm almost certain that somebody brought up the EXACT example of Onegu doing this where he tried to sac himself to get the next person lynched in a deal like this.



It was sn0 and it wasnt the same thing.
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Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 17:14 GMT
#1176
It was the night before mylo, and me and rayn both had red checks on us and I said we should lynch into the red checks.
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