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Newbie Mini Mafia L - Page 21

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 01:10 GMT
#1584
It was unlikely previously, I think it's even more unlikely after today. Definitely clears Vonthin IMO.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 01:16 GMT
#1587
Honestly I don't see any way we lose this game at this point. We'd have to mislynch 3 times in a row I think... and we still have our blues.

Also, we now have the information that its a 2goon 1 roleblocker setup or TTTT which means 3 possible letters left (mafia should have known this a while ago). This will be the biggest town throw in the history of mafia ever if we lose! ^_^
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 01:17 GMT
#1589
Yeah, Odin is a main target for me too. I'm just so fucking happy to be able to clear you Storr, your defenses made me so mad P
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 01:26 GMT
#1591
It doesn't really matter who cop checks. But it should definitely be targeted at more suspicious targets than Storr. People who could have been in league with owb/poofter... if they happen to be town then so be it, but Storr has a low chance of being a red check at this point, IMO.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 01:35 GMT
#1593
I don't like it so much... depends on how many roles there are.. if there are a lot (which if you have a role, you should know) then it would be awesome to cause mass confusion in mafia to force them to make a mistake on the night kill. But I mean... we're already talking about it atm sooo it'd be pretty easy to counter.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 01:39 GMT
#1596
Nah... no reason to start thinking about an SK at this point... it's soooooooo unlikely that their kill got blocked twice in a row.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 01:40 GMT
#1599
But yeah... cop claiming RIGHT before day start would be really helpful.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 01:41 GMT
#1602
Nah I have faith. Directing blues just makes everything confusing for them.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 01:46 GMT
#1603
On November 07 2013 10:41 StorrZerg wrote:
i wouldn't put it past the set up to have sometime of medic as well though. i find it hard to imagine that mafia have a role blocker and town only 1 blue.


Storr: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++

There can be up to 3 blues in the setup we have. Although unlikely, because that means there would have to be 2 1 shots who haven't used their roles yet (since they would have claimed). There is probably 2 roles.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 01:53 GMT
#1607
My town circle:

Obzy
Nyx
E00
Storr
Vonthin

Leaves:

odin
cake

I would clear cake but I've been feeling fishy about him recently. Reason I clear E00 is because he took Vonthin/Owb and voted OWB each time. I clear nyx because its nyx and I have a good feeling about him.

Cake has been questioning me a lot and the case on you yesterday felt a bit weird. He's playing a great mafia if it is him because I've read his filter a hell of a lot since that case and I couldn't find anything incriminating really...
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 01:55 GMT
#1609
On November 07 2013 10:50 StorrZerg wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2013 10:46 Balla24 wrote:
On November 07 2013 10:41 StorrZerg wrote:
i wouldn't put it past the set up to have sometime of medic as well though. i find it hard to imagine that mafia have a role blocker and town only 1 blue.


Storr: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++

There can be up to 3 blues in the setup we have. Although unlikely, because that means there would have to be 2 1 shots who haven't used their roles yet (since they would have claimed). There is probably 2 roles.


not sure exactly how to read this.

so are you saying its possible to have 3 blue roles ( 2 of them have to be 1 shots) or have 2 roles that are full?


Yep.. so essentially at the beginning of the game the mod rolls 7 100 sided dice. Each dice has a chance to land a role or a T (vanilla townie). The # of Ts decides the strength of the mafia team, higher T means less powerful mafia team because that means there are less blue roles, lower T means stronger mafia team since there are more blue roles etc etc.

Mafia learns the setup possibilities VERY early since they know their team composition and thus the # of Ts. In this game, its 2G 1RB so we know it's TTTT.

That means that there were 3 rolls that did NOT land T. So exactly what you said.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 01:57 GMT
#1611
I also clear E00 because he was RB and brought up good discussion around the RB, which is another reason I'm feeling iffy on cake, since he immediately dismissed my situation with OWB being scum because of it. He's done that on a few things.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 01:58 GMT
#1612
I will in a sec here Storr need to put some pizza in the oven
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 02:02 GMT
#1614
On November 07 2013 10:57 StorrZerg wrote:
would you mind explaining why nyx is not possible or E00e?

I feel its a bit wrong to only focus on Odin tomorrow

(i know you put cake as a possible but even at this point, he is contributing far more than either of those 2)
I know im moving up on your list from this past lynch, so i ask you to consider my read on cake as town as well as my negative points about E00e and nyx.


Alright, nyx is a purely feeling read, mixed with a few unlikely interactions with poofter if he was scum and also a few unlikely interactions with OWB. He's not the greatest townie, but he's been giving me good vibes all game. He's improved a lot since last game and I can tell he's trying to do so.

E00 should be clear because he claimed being roleblocked, and he voted OWB on day2 and day3 specifically to clear Vonthin without much discussion. That's totally not scum play. He also generated discussion around his roleblocked, which I feel if a mafia fake claimed RB he wouldn't do. Just claim and go on. I get good feelings from him.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 02:12 GMT
#1615
Nyx/E00 took pretty hard stances against OWB. Their votes were super early each time. Doesn't look like possible busses.

Cake's case on you yesterday totally looked like it could have been a desperation attempt to save OWB, how he begs, etc...
Odin just looks bad since day2 end...

I'm pretty sure those should be our only 2 options.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 02:14 GMT
#1616
Also I want to add... i've ALSO had a huuuuuuuuge townread on cake this entire game. I'm only reconsidering because of day3 posts.. it's not a strong read at all.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 02:44 GMT
#1619
I mean, you questioning me isn't particularly scummy, its just that you chose to question me on reasoning of why i've been considering OWB more scummy then others. But then again you've been very confrontational on stretched reasoning all game, so it's not THAT scummy. I just have to consider it, you know? ^_^ Chances are we lynch Odin and we win anyways..
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 02:47 GMT
#1620
On November 07 2013 11:21 Vonthin wrote:
I think

Obzy
Cake
Balla
Storr

are all strong town.


Weaker town reads are:

E00e and Nyx, I think they are townish but that wouldn't surprise me if they ended up being mafia


Odin is my biggest suspect for last mafia, I already made my case awhile ago. Plus his posting today I sorta got the feel he didn't want to vote for OWB




I also got that feel. His activity dropped SIGNIFICANTLY after we lynched poofter and his case on Jonny failed... he was so hesitant today, didn't even make a case on OWB like usually does with his lynch targets. So hesitant. And if OWB is any indication to the scum team's attitude... Odin fits the bill.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 02:48 GMT
#1621
I'd really like to hear why you guys have weak town reads/scum reads on E00/nyx... just because they aren't high volume posters?
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
November 07 2013 02:55 GMT
#1622
Especially E00... what's the thought process there? What reason do we have not to believe his RB claim?
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