EPTWorld Heavyweight Championship mafia - Page 8
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Dirkzor
Denmark1944 Posts
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Dirkzor
Denmark1944 Posts
Marv looks town just in general. Only minor things that he looks scum for is his disappearence D1 lynch and the way he acted out D2. I had similar thoughts D2 so I couldn't really say either way. | ||
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Dirkzor
Denmark1944 Posts
On October 09 2013 22:35 marvellosity wrote: your "i want to wait for risen and HF" almost makes this seem sort of plausible. this is totally outside of my comfort level as a mafia player though. so now will you talk about Risen with me a little? You think it's possible after all that he would behave like he did around the day 1 lynch as mafia? As I jsut wrote. No, I can't see scum Risen act like that during lynch. I can follow the thought process of voting sloosh first because he was being lynched himself. Then seeing Rayn as a candidate, see to few on Rayn. back to sloosh and then to rayn when the wagon picked up steam | ||
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Assume I'm town for now. We lynch Risen. He flip town. Scum kills Clarity/Marv/HF (depending on scum). Lylo is Dirk/marv/HF or Dirk/marv/clar or Dirk/CLar/HF. Who dies? I do. If we lynch anyone else then Risen or me today. Lylo looks: Dirk/Risen and Marv/HF/Clar. Who dies? I do. If you lynch me today you most likely end up with Risen at lylo. Might be better just to lynch me now and find scum at lylo? | ||
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Dirkzor
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Dirkzor
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On October 08 2013 16:28 Dirkzor wrote: Just read Final D1. I don't think HF, Risen or Clarity is scum. I'm going to establish a timeline. Start from this post: link At this point the vote count is: + Show Spoiler [Slightly edited votecount from BH] + On October 04 2013 08:49 Blazinghand wrote: we are going to no lynch unless we consolidate rayn 2 - risen, slosh 3 - dirk oats holy risen 3 - sloosh, clair, marv bh 1 - rayn Marv 1 - BH BH votes Rayn 1 min after (same time)Risen come in to the thread and see 3 votes on him and sloosh. Votes sloosh to save himself (would do as any alignment) Risen votes Rayn because he sees BH vote on Rayn and a possibilty to lynch his scumread. HF votes Rayn 1 min after(again same time if on phone) Risen votes for Sloosh again with reason: "No that's only two including me not enough" Risen votes Rayn again after seeing HF's vote. Rayn votes sloosh Vote count: + Show Spoiler + On October 04 2013 08:53 Blazinghand wrote: we are going to no lynch unless we consolidate rayn 3 - BH, risen, holy slosh 3 - dirk oats, rayn risen 3 - sloosh, clair, marv Clarity votes sloosh in order to consolidate. HF pushing rayn lynch "Confirmed town is on a rayn lynch, people should follow confirmed town." (stupid argument, but he pushes Rayn lynch and its stupid as either town or scum.) Sloosh votes rayn (to save himself) It's now 4-4 between Rayn and sloosh. Clarity posts: "4-4 marv you here?" Clarity votes Rayn. Rayn is lynched. Marv appears. Hf is consistent. He votes Rayn. Sticks to rayn. Pushes the rayn lynch. Not scum Risen is to consistent but his thought fits a townperson. Starts by voting sloosh (the other wagon at the time) to save himself. Would do as either alignment. See Rayn being pushed - votes Rayn. Now why do this if they are scumbuddies? He was already on town sloosh. He sees the rayn wagon is a Tandembike and votes sloosh again to consolidate. In the mean time HF is voting rayn. Risen is "Hey rayn can get killed" and votes him. The timeline fits. I can't see why he would vote back and forth as scum when he had a good reason just to vote sloosh and be done with it. Not scum Now there are 2 small things damning about Clarity. First, he votes sloosh instead of Rayn when consolidating. Not really that damning considering he was was voting Sloosh before Risen and at the time Rayn/sloosh was 3-3. Second thing was him asking after marv. Him not wanting to take responsibility for the lynch maybe? Wanting Marv to be the hammer? At this point, clarity could have stayed on sloosh hoping someone would hop from rayn to sloosh, but he didn't. He made the jump causing scum rayn to get lynched. All in all I'm fairly sure he is not scum. Only way either of these 3 are scum if it was a carefully orchestrated bus. With the hectic wagon forming and lateness of it all it just seem unlikely. Risen had the best buildup to a rayn bus with his big case, but he also had the best reasons to just vote sloosh and say it was to save himself. If rayn had flipped he would still have gotten some cred for make the case. Where was marv? No where! Marv had been super active for 2-3 hours leading up to the lynch. Just when Rayn appears marv votes Risen (with no reason what so ever, Sloosh was still in the lead and marvs biggest scumread. His Risen vote was a sheep of Sloosh (his scum read) and clarity) and marv disappear. I'm guessing to communicate and shouting at someone for being an idiot with the way they are posting as scum *hint hint*. I wasn't at the lynch. I was sleeping. But from the people left alive now only Marv and me comes out looking bad from the lynch. Me for not being there at all. Marv for choosing not to be there and his actions leading up to the end of D1. ##Vote Marv | ||
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Dirkzor
Denmark1944 Posts
I explained the exact timeline and how I see it here: Just read Final D1. I don't think HF, Risen or Clarity is scum. I'm going to establish a timeline. Start from this post: link At this point the vote count is: + Show Spoiler [Slightly edited votecount from BH] + On October 04 2013 08:49 Blazinghand wrote: we are going to no lynch unless we consolidate rayn 2 - risen, slosh 3 - dirk oats holy risen 3 - sloosh, clair, marv bh 1 - rayn Marv 1 - BH BH votes Rayn 1 min after (same time)Risen come in to the thread and see 3 votes on him and sloosh. Votes sloosh to save himself (would do as any alignment) Risen votes Rayn because he sees BH vote on Rayn and a possibilty to lynch his scumread. HF votes Rayn 1 min after(again same time if on phone) Risen votes for Sloosh again with reason: "No that's only two including me not enough" Risen votes Rayn again after seeing HF's vote. Rayn votes sloosh Vote count: + Show Spoiler + On October 04 2013 08:53 Blazinghand wrote: we are going to no lynch unless we consolidate rayn 3 - BH, risen, holy slosh 3 - dirk oats, rayn risen 3 - sloosh, clair, marv Clarity votes sloosh in order to consolidate. HF pushing rayn lynch "Confirmed town is on a rayn lynch, people should follow confirmed town." (stupid argument, but he pushes Rayn lynch and its stupid as either town or scum.) Sloosh votes rayn (to save himself) | ||
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On October 08 2013 08:22 Risen wrote: I'm stepping away. Lynch Oats, if town, lynch marv. That is all. On October 08 2013 14:43 Risen wrote: I will not be playing with Oats again. I can only think of this move making sense coming from marv, dirk, or Clarity because it makes no sense for HF to do it. HF has been riding his town cred since day 1 and wouldn't shoot Oats here. Town would mislynch itself into a loss if he was scum and simply shot me or Clarity. He'd have to be trolling to do something like that. It's just a matter of WHY do that for him? I can't see it anywhere making sense. Marv + Show Spoiler + Why is marv alive if he's town? It's n2 and if he's town he's usually the most important/useful person in the thread, instead we have BH d1 and rayn dodge, sloosh d2 (though if we're being honest marv wasn't the only one on sloosh, but why didn't he put pressure on Clarity for last minute bus and he did on me and he didn't want to lynch Oats with me), and now what? Marv knew that Oats would get lynched today if he killed me in the night and when Oats flipped town he would be the lynch day 4. How does marv live through two lynches when he's been called out and has gone for the 1 for 1 gambit, been wrong, and not lynched his partner, and tried to troll lynch and got doctor killed (but it was totes emotion guys)? He throws a wrench into things. By killing Oats in the night he discredits me because I was wrong about Oats and sets up for the "anyone but marv" lynch today. Anyone but marv gets lynched and then he night kills me tomorrow (assuming he doesn't get me lynched today) leaving marv/3 other people who probably won't lynch him because he has TWENTY SEVEN PAGES OF POSTING IS THIS REAL? Boom, marv wins the game. I bet when he thought this up he was so smug. Marv is smug whether scum OR town, but I bet he was sitting there chuckling to himself especially hard on this one. If marv is alive at day 4 he isn't getting lynched. I will be dead and/or everyone else will just let him slither his way into "Oh I would NEVER do all this as scum, NEVER! Tehehehehe" Something that actually makes me not want to lynch marv here is that he wanted to do a 1 for 1 trade he was so sure sloosh was scum. I offered the same thing to Pandain and Pandain scoffed at it in Noir and he turned out to be scum. Clarity + Show Spoiler + Clarity was suspicious to me early on, but as soon as rayn called me town I nailed him and when Oats started trolling me I tunneled onto him. It's Oats' fault and I'm never going to play with him again, he's as bad as Mocsta and Geript. Going back to Clarity, I find it funny that he swapped back with so little time left. He pretty much guarantees a sloosh lynch day 2 with his move with things staying as is and sloosh swap to rayn to save himself. I've been catching flak for a potential bus all game, but because I don't ride marv I don't get to be super awesome. If Clarity is scum, I can see him shooting Oats over this On October 08 2013 07:37 Oatsmaster wrote: Oh man. Lol Clarity is playing a really good scumgame then. but that's a stretch. I don't see anything else in Oats filter recently that would make Clarity shoot Oats. If Clarity is scum why not ride an Oats/Dirk/marv lynch? That's three people he could have for today and tomorrow to lynch. It makes no sense for him to do this. BUT MAYBE he's afraid because people have been alerted to his last minute swap to rayn over sloosh now so he is afraid of going to day 4 as someone with a potential bus case being formed against him. It's a crazy play, but is anyone seriously considering lynching him? Before people might have considered him d4, now maybe he felt he had a better shot making people go crazy. This is actually a better reason to shoot Oats than the quoted statement. Or maybe he shot Oats because Oats was screaming that Clarity was totes town along with marv and he wanted to lynch dirk/marv and people would begin to suspect why such a strong town read for so many people was still alive? This doesn't apply to HF, in my opinion, simply because the game would have been so much easier for HF as scum to kill sloosh. Clarity's swap gets him town cred while lynching someone who was going to get lynched d2 anyways following a sloosh lynch. This seems really paranoid to me. If this were the case I'd have to accept that Clarity bussed his teammate with minutes left d1 when he wasn't a scum read for many people, then shot Oats while he was still not that high a priority for anyone because he was afraid of going into day 4 with a potential bus case developing on him. Ugh, it's twisting my brain around in circles and this feels ranty. It's such a needless risk for Clarity here. Dirk + Show Spoiler + Dirk has cases on him, he's been useless all game. He defends himself without pushing much of anything. He's the clear lynch here come day 3 with Oats gone and a town seemingly unwilling to lynch marv, so why shoot Oats? I think the same thing applying to marv here applies to Dirk. How does Dirk live through two lynches? How does he get himself to the finish line? He throws a wrench into things. He makes people think themselves out of his lynch. He rides me to a marv lynch today and then Does something fucking NUTS tomorrow to not get himself lynched. Is it possible this hail mary is his only option here? Has he essentially given up? Why not go for Oats/marv lynches is the thing holding me back. Presumably he's got my backing for both of those lynches, so why throw a wrench into it? I can only think he would throw a wrench into it because he felt the rest of town wanted to lynch him today over Oats or marv. It should be noted that I gave dirk a pass because I didn't envision a scenario in which one of Oats and marv weren't scum. That was stupid of me. Dirk might be counting on me to continue to be stupid, and I'm here to let him down. Logically, Dirk is the most likely to try something like this because desperation. Four pages of filter isn't necessarily damning assuming quality over quantity, but most of his filter is defense. Here is what bothers me most in his filter (two quotes), double spoilers ftw + Show Spoiler + On October 05 2013 00:30 Dirkzor wrote: Risen I don't know why you are complicating things. Marv played really pro-town until the BH thing which I don't think I'll ever truely understand. I don't understand why he would do it as either town or scum so I'm left with believing his claim to hate BH. Instead you should read my case on Sloosh. Say you agree and we lynch sloosh. I'm coming away from this with the feeling that Dirk knows marv is town. He doesn't say marv is a town read, but he certainly implies it HEAVILY. It's the kind of thing someone would say if they later wanted to go back on what they said earlier. What marv did was anti-town, plain and simple. Qualifying it is scummy. The second quote should have set me off earlier, but I guess that's what happens when someone trolls you. + Show Spoiler + On October 05 2013 17:14 Dirkzor wrote: ##Vote Sloosh Sloosh your "case" leaves much to be desired. You kinda scoot over everyone. If you really think I'm the last scum make a real case. Just on me. Not everyone. I'm sure you'll see that I ain't that bad. I'll look into Oats since I'm not really sure about him. Just because Sloosh looks like the clear target we have to keep this going just in case. Oats what did you mean by this: Seems fairly straightforward to me. Oats wanted to know why sloosh wasn't in my earlier list. This reads to me as Dirk trying to blend as if he is contributing without actually contributing, a clear sign of scum. Oats then goes on to go attack mode on Dirk. This lends credence to the fact that Dirk has to make a big play in order to live past day 3. But why doesn't Dirk know that everyone else will simply see through that? He does. He simply has no other option. Do nothing? Get lynched d3 or d4. Do something? Town might stumble and kill themselves off. Most logically it's Dirk. Big play, but still logical, it's Marv. Only way I see this happening is if he's afraid of bus momentum starting and wants to throw a wrench into the works play, Clarity. Jesus fuck if HF is scum and did this I just want to know why? Regardless, I am going to go to sleep. Maybe HF is in the same boat as Clarity and wanted to make town panic and scramble so people wouldn't look into him more closely in spite of people continuously saying "I'm reading HF's filter and he's coming up town" but then why is HF alive? That's the same thing I'm wondering about marv, though. Maybe he's afraid of something he posted coming to light, though, and decided to throw a wrench into the mix. I am going to read Clarity and HF's filters very closely tomorrow, but I think after thinking about this and thinking it through Dirk is the lynch. ##vote: Dirkzor Look marv already pointed this out. Was why he voted Risen earlier. But what happened from D2/N2 to day 3? Thats the best I can find. Risen was so sure Marv was scummy after Oats. Then suddenly he wasn't. He explains why it is so in his post though. Also I can see no reason for Risen to shoot Oats. He was gunning and pushing him as scum most of D2/N2. | ||
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Dirkzor
Denmark1944 Posts
what does that mean... was he scum? | ||
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Denmark1944 Posts
Marv knew that Oats would get lynched today if he killed me in the night and when Oats flipped town he would be the lynch day 4. How does marv live through two lynches when he's been called out and has gone for the 1 for 1 gambit, been wrong, and not lynched his partner, and tried to troll lynch and got doctor killed (but it was totes emotion guys) Dirk has cases on him, he's been useless all game. He defends himself without pushing much of anything. He's the clear lynch here come day 3 with Oats gone and a town seemingly unwilling to lynch marv, so why shoot Oats? I think the same thing applying to marv here applies to Dirk. How does Dirk live through two lynches? How does he get himself to the finish line? Quotes from Risen's last post. Why does that stick out to me? I'm not sure if relevant. Seems to me he thinks marv is unlynchable but still uses the argument that Marv wouldn't live through 2 lynches without killing oats... | ||
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On October 09 2013 23:09 Clarity_nl wrote: I'm checking the scum qt to see if he was around after he said that Btw I never saw that post where marv stated that someone was in another topic or QT while not posting here... (rayn was it, when playing drunk D1?) where is it... I've been wonderign why I never saw it... | ||
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On October 09 2013 01:08 Holyflare wrote: You may have the traits of a towny but there is always that lingering suspicious nature about you. You were SO SURE about sloosh that when people (oats, risen, dirk etc.) were doing extra scum hunting that you thought it was funny and wouldn't participate. You effectively did not participate in an entire day because you "thought the game was solved". Here we are day 3, and the same scenario is coming down. The only reason that oats could be killed was to add further speculation about dirkzor making a desperation move, pretty simple play to make if you think about it coming from you it lets you sit back for an entire day again and not have to do anything but vote for dirkzor. This means that you don't have to do even more extra scum hunting compared to if you left oats alive. Oats was looking for scum, even through the trolling, he was pretty much the only one looking. Now, you can conveniently eliminate another day and as you've painted risen as your next target I presume he will be your choice for the day after. Everytime someone so much as mentions the word marv and scum in a sentence you flip out about how you are "the most town, and have progressed us through most of the game". Now, I'm not saying you are scum, I'm not saying you aren't. Of course I will filter dive you and see whether these feels are baseless or not. This is just a theory after all. This made me raise my eyebrows because it was exactly what I was fishing after... | ||
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On October 10 2013 00:30 Holyflare wrote: Oh also, by the way. If it was dirkzor's intention "to lay a trap" I was around then and he did not question me further about it, he just continued pushing you and used it as fuel for his case. Now I'm not one to play up traps but it's not really effective if you don't say AHA you just got played until your case fails is it? I did spot it. Why do you think I emphasized it? But your whole post was so vague that it didn't really give me much... (the bolded part) You are right I should have stuck to my guns and waited it out. But neither you or Risen was here and I won't be around at lynch time due to me sleeping. So the clock was ticking.. | ||
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