Don't you find, usually, that townies have totally rank confirmation bias like this?
Normally mafia aren't so ... blatant.
Yes/no?
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
Don't you find, usually, that townies have totally rank confirmation bias like this? Normally mafia aren't so ... blatant. Yes/no? | ||
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
Do you like what he pointed about slOosh's thing about Clarity? How do you feel about what slOosh wrote about Clarity compared to what Risen did? | ||
marvellosity
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On October 03 2013 19:39 Oatsmaster wrote: oh lol. I just saw sloosh indirectly defend clarity then 2 posts later vote for him off like 2 posts of wiffle-waffle? Man even I dont 180 that fast. Especially since those posts dont contain Wiffle-waffle. In fact, if Clarity votes for BH today or tmr, barring a 'scumslip' then I will be incredibly surprised. Sloosh needs to explain his clarity vote. I'm curious how you missed this at the time, and the subsequent 10 times it's been mentioned in the thread? Just to recap then - who are your suspicions? Dirkzor still scummiest, or? | ||
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
One last thing - how do you feel about me, given my vote is on you right at this moment? | ||
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On October 03 2013 19:47 Oatsmaster wrote: Show nested quote + On October 03 2013 19:44 marvellosity wrote: lol ok. One last thing - how do you feel about me, given my vote is on you right at this moment? I feel that you are still really null. But considering you know exactly how I played in Golden Sun, that vote was a bit weird. Im thinking it was a pressure vote so yeah Leaning town for now. Depends. If we lynch scum, then you probably are town, if we dont lynch scum today then you are more likely to be scum. Why is this? How often have I been in a town that's lynched mafia Day 1 in the last 6 months? Feels a bit setup-y, Oats my boy. | ||
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On October 03 2013 19:47 Dirkzor wrote: Why was/is sloosh so sure I'm town? I'm having a hard time to figure this out. His reasoning and the way he see my timeline fit rather good with reality, but why did he come to that conclusion when no one else did/have? I know I'm town, but I also know that my first post wasn't stellar... Why was he defending me? Maybe it only looks weird to me since I know my alignment is town, but it looks preemptive if I was lynched. Anyone agree? Yeah it is kinda interesting. Need to give it some thought. also ##Unvote Oats' answers have been reasonably satisfying to me. Well, as satisfying as Oats answers can really be. | ||
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
Sadly in Hero Mafia one of my scumbuddies did indeed get lynched Day 1. Not that that stopped me winning obviously. | ||
marvellosity
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On October 02 2013 19:10 Dirkzor wrote: Yes he have been posting, but when I read it I don't really see any meat. Might just be me but that's how I see it. Some of his posts seems to be just for the sake of posting. + Show Spoiler + On October 02 2013 12:52 Holyflare wrote: Show nested quote + On October 02 2013 12:51 Oatsmaster wrote: On October 02 2013 12:48 Holyflare wrote: Risen, in a game of 9 players in which I know nothing about any of the players there is no better system to accept straight off than RNG. Obviously there are ways to get my attention drawn to other people, however, in a 'world heavyweight championship' as you so lovingly pointed out, is it really going to be that obvious when people screw up? I think not. Like I said in my original post, however, I am open to peoples opinions on other players. except that we have 48 hours to find scum and its only 2/9 chance that we get scum. And probably another 4/9 that we hit an obvious townie that is obvious town after 48 hours. Now its not so useful is it? Do you even read what is posted? Show nested quote + On October 02 2013 12:18 Blazinghand wrote: Also to all the RNG doubters: RNG has a 2/7 chance of hitting scum today! Not 2/9 as you might think. Why is that? Well, first off, I'm talking to people who aren't Oats and are town. You personally know that of the 8 non-you players, 2 are scum. So you'd think it would be a 2/8 chance of an RNG hitting scum. Pretty lame right? WRONG. If the RNG is on the doctor and the lynch starts to gather steam, he'll surely claim. This means that the doctor isn't even in the lynch pool, and we can roll again for a new RNG. this means we can discount one town player from our odds, meaning that you have a 2/7 (over 30%!) chance of lynching scum with RNG! On October 02 2013 14:05 Holyflare wrote: Stop posting long posts??? It's called analysis of a player. The fact that even after I've posted that you aren't asking me anything, aren't trying to discover whether I am in fact town or not and aren't trying to decipher other peoples motives is just rubbing me the wrong way. It's easy to jump on a player because he played the noob card but there are 2 scum in this game not just one. If i were to be lynched and did indeed flip town then wouldn't you regret not pressuring other people on why they think i'm a sure fire scum? When I read through his filter it feels clinicly clean. Don't know how to describe it really... it like trying to get rotten wood look fresh on the surface. On October 02 2013 20:11 Dirkzor wrote: Ok. So I went back to find evidence that HF have been sheeping BH. Not much was found... On October 02 2013 20:56 Dirkzor wrote: There is no physical evidence because it was a "I feel like this" vote. Same with Oats basicly. If I look at the posts and the way he have been acting I can see why people think he might be scum, but the feeling I got was somewhat townie. And that confuse me. After going back to prove my feeling there was nothing there and my feeling changed somewhat. Since I don't have much to work with so early on it is mostly how I feel. That probably sounds weird but thats how my head works. And don't hold the ellipses agaisnt me. I assure you that it is random. I used to do it a lot but I'm trying to stop when there is no particular need. I am not very good at that yet. Three quotes. 1) He read his filter. Indeed there are quotes from his filter 2) He went back to read his filter, and didn't find what he wrote 3) There's no evidence from the filter (even though there was in 1) because it was a 'feel' vote. On October 03 2013 15:46 Dirkzor wrote: Show nested quote + On October 03 2013 03:11 raynpelikoneet wrote: I am trying to find out myself if i believe his "feel reads" are legit or if he is scum. Dirkzor if you base your early day 1 reads on feels, why did you say somthing completely different in your post where you voted for HF? If it's a gut read why frame it to something else? I don't believe I framed it to be anything other then a feel read. I wrote how I felt about him. Him posting rubbish and following BH. After re-reading to stand up for my belief I got another feeling because there really wasn't any evidence.. And people have been noticing how I made 2 quotes of Oats and then voted HF with only a few lines attached. That was because BH said oats was scummy and I wanted to weigh in on that. The post ended up going another way though. But in 1) he read his filter? How do you read someone's filter and come away with only 'feels' and untrue evidence? I thought I could get over this but I'm not sure I can :/ | ||
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On October 03 2013 20:51 Dirkzor wrote: I am at work now so this will be fast. I never did a 180. I still think some of his post are more for show then for real scumhunting (like the post I linked that you quoted). What changed was my belief of him being unoriginal and sheeping BH. The 2nd post you are quoting are during the process of comparing.. I presume this is in reply to Oats' post. What comparing are you talking about exactly? | ||
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
rayn is sexy because he has me as towniest which is evidently correct. | ||
marvellosity
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And yes, i'm aware of how dumb that sounds, but i still believe it ;p | ||
marvellosity
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On October 03 2013 21:09 raynpelikoneet wrote: Could you still tell me what do you think of BH? Because what i see is that "everyone looks bad except for marv". Even though his case is on you, I like this post anyways. It's essentially correct, and you being useless is/was immensely concerning. I'm not entirely sure how to get a solid read on BH on day 1 (despite him being legendarily "bad" at scum), but I associate scumBH with picking a target and going at it like a bull. He seems open to rethinking about things so far in this game which I think I associate with towniness for him. | ||
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
If he'd stuck around to argue his corner some, I'd have found his massive confirmation bias townie; as it is, I don't. | ||
marvellosity
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Mafia would be so much easier. And it's such a basic thing. | ||
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On October 03 2013 21:24 Clarity_nl wrote: ....and scum don't? Do you think rayn is scum for not wanting to lynch you? Or are you saying people who push you are town and people who have a townread on you are town? Like... c'mon This isn't the only game he's said this. He's also said it to me in irc. Like, it's retarded, but he actually believes it. | ||
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On October 03 2013 21:26 Oatsmaster wrote: Its also true. Seriously. Scum never try to seriously mislynch townoats. I caused your mislynch day 2 in desert. | ||
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
you should probably think about that a little. | ||
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On October 03 2013 21:27 Oatsmaster wrote: yeah I dont mean townies always want to lynch me, I mean ONLY townies want to lynch Townoats i was mafia | ||
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On October 03 2013 21:29 Oatsmaster wrote: Show nested quote + On October 03 2013 21:27 marvellosity wrote: by the way - scum don't have to, because you play so terribly that town do the job for them. you should probably think about that a little. Cheap shot man, this has nothing to do with what im talking about. It's not a cheap shot, it's true. You're always a possible mislynch and mafia don't have to push you because you're scummy enough that town will push you on their behalf. That's just fact. rayn, my dear. I think we both know that a decent way of reading your alignment is how you go after your targets and how confrontational and aggressive you are. Even if I take your busyness claim at face value, how do you imagine I or other people in the game go about getting a townread on you, should you be town? | ||
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