Like, the 3 man team has to shoot townies with 100% accuracy to get control of the lynch. Then they need to never shoot the other guy in order to preserve 2 NKs. And to do that, they have to know who he is. They gotta keep that up until they're in a higher number scenario, one night, and then they run the lynch whether or not the other mafia agrees.

I dunno, the cases in which town loses require nobody having vest. Nobody should give specifics on that probably. But if mafia thinks they're caught 100% dead to rights, or close enough to it that they can't get much in the way of mislynching and MIGHT lose the other team, then this increases their chances to win (an all-in on a fake PM claim).

WaveofShadow

Canada31495 Posts

October 06 2013 02:31 GMT

#3822

On October 06 2013 11:27 austinmcc wrote:

Show nested quote +

On October 06 2013 11:23 WaveofShadow wrote:

On October 06 2013 11:19 austinmcc wrote:

On October 06 2013 11:17 WaveofShadow wrote:

On October 06 2013 11:15 austinmcc wrote:
neato. If this is real, that could change some things. Right now we're 7-3-1. If Cheese IS mafia and solstice is bait, could be...

6-3-1 or 7-3.

In the 6-3-1 case, given that we only saw 1 KP last night, we assume SOMEONE used drive by, and there will be 3 KP out there. Scum shoot VE and two people they think don't have vests, take numbers to 3-3-1. Tell the other scummer to let their team win, not town, lynch Koshi 4-3, and win the game.

In the 7-3 case, max of 2 KP. Doesn't make sense.

So...there IS a chance that if this is a ploy and solstice is town, we lynch him and lose IF scum hit unvested targets and avoid the bus? But I think that can only happen if solstice is town and if the other mafia team cooperates.

Why would they cooperate if they still have a chance to win on their own?
Initiating the contact makes no sense to me in the first place.

I don't think that team does. There's a team with ONE dude. At best he can kingmake or something IF we screw up, but I don't think he has a good chance of getting a win unless people let him. Right?

Even 3-3-1. He has to lynch town. 2-3-1. He shoots town or mafia, either, 1-3-1 or 1-2-1. In that case, the other mafia team can lynch him and shoot the townie to win if it's 1-3-1, or can ... force a no lynch, then shoot him while he shoots them, leaving it town vs. (one dude from 3 man team).

He has no chance to win. The other team has as much KP as he does AND they control the lynch. Even if he shoots them, they have even numbers always and can win, barring Koshi not dying and not getting blocked and shooting someone from the 3 man team? And any sort of "townies living" scenario, vests or koshi saves, does NOT help the 1 man scumteam, he's just too far behind.

Once again you're assuming that the scumteams have each other figured out in this scenario.
I don't know why you make that assumption.

I'm assuming that because, even in the BEST CASE SCENARIO for mafia (they know each other with 100% accuracy), the one-man team can't win. A situation with less knowledge is never superior for the one-man team as far as I can tell. So I'm assuming that because with the deck stacked as much as possible towards the 1 man team (the 3 man team knows him 100% and will not shoot him accidentally), he can't win.

Wat.
Why would that be best case scenario for him?
Wouldn't best case scenario be to just fucking hide/pretend to be town and hope to outlast the other team so he can actually WIN?

Like.....how does your mind work Austin? I really don't get anything you've been saying throughout this entire game.

VisceraEyes

United States21171 Posts

October 06 2013 02:32 GMT

#3823

Phone posting but... LOL

s0Lstice

United States1833 Posts

October 06 2013 02:32 GMT

#3824

sigh

i really dont know if I have the energy for this right now, but I am pissed so that's gonna help

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

October 06 2013 02:34 GMT

#3825

i know who we lynch. t_t
haha. :D

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

October 06 2013 02:34 GMT

#3826

Have we considered the scenario where CC is faking it and solstice is innocent?

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

October 06 2013 02:34 GMT

#3827

oh nvm

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

October 06 2013 02:34 GMT

#3828

yeah, ez day, WOOHOO

s0Lstice

United States1833 Posts

October 06 2013 02:35 GMT

#3829

let's start here. I did claim scum to CC, but I am not scum, I am the other cop

we'll get to Koshi in a lil bit

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

October 06 2013 02:36 GMT

#3830

CR, i wanna lynch you... tbh

raynpelikoneet

Finland43270 Posts

October 06 2013 02:36 GMT

#3831

oh solstice.. bad..

s0Lstice

United States1833 Posts

October 06 2013 02:36 GMT

#3832

more in a few mins when I'm home

WaveofShadow

Canada31495 Posts

October 06 2013 02:37 GMT

#3833

On October 06 2013 11:35 s0Lstice wrote:
let's start here. I did claim scum to CC, but I am not scum, I am the other cop

we'll get to Koshi in a lil bit

Oh dear lord no.

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

October 06 2013 02:38 GMT

#3834

On October 06 2013 11:35 s0Lstice wrote:
let's start here. I did claim scum to CC, but I am not scum, I am the other cop

we'll get to Koshi in a lil bit

If you were the other cop, you should have claimed it ages ago when Koshi first came out.

VisceraEyes

United States21171 Posts

October 06 2013 02:38 GMT

#3835

I claimed scum to someone in PMs one time and said I did it to fish for reactions when it turned out he wasn't scum like I thought and he brought it to the thread. So funny. That's probably the last Banger desperation move you think?

Gg s0l

austinmcc

United States6737 Posts

October 06 2013 02:39 GMT

#3836

On October 06 2013 11:31 WaveofShadow wrote:

Show nested quote +

On October 06 2013 11:27 austinmcc wrote:

On October 06 2013 11:23 WaveofShadow wrote:

On October 06 2013 11:19 austinmcc wrote:

On October 06 2013 11:17 WaveofShadow wrote:

Why would they cooperate if they still have a chance to win on their own?
Initiating the contact makes no sense to me in the first place.

Once again you're assuming that the scumteams have each other figured out in this scenario.
I don't know why you make that assumption.

Yeah, but I've been right! Mwahahahahahaha + <3.

He cannot hide/hope to outlast. IF we mislynch, it's 6-3-1. Either scum kill 3 townies with NKs or town still controls the lynch. The 3 man team will not shoot the three man team. The 1 man team can won't shoot himself. So IF no townies survive (please please please?).

So IF mafia get 3 kills, on anyone, no protects or whatever, it's either:

3-3-1
4-2-1
4-3
5-2

In two of those cases, lone dude is dead. In the 3-3-1 he CAN hide, but....hmmmm.

LOOK IT STARTS TO GET REALLY CONVOLUTED AND THERE ARE TOO MANY OPTIONS BUT I DO NOT THINK THAT ONE MAN MAFIA CAN ACTUALLY WIN THIS BECAUSE EITHER TOWN IS WRECKING SCUM OR 3 MAN TEAM IS IN CONTROL OF THE GAME.

WHATEVER, IT'S NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IN THE WORLD.

The important thing, to me, is that if mafia is threatened righ tnow, they COULD be going all-in on this, because there are scenarios where they win if vests are gone and they dodge koshi.