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On August 03 2013 07:47 Clarity_nl wrote:
I'm okay with the exar lynch. Either we confirm a bunch of people including me or we lynch scum.
CJS's post before it turned day looks fishy, but I find it hard to see him as scum.
You think he faked the day 1 ragequit as scum?
Doesn't matter, we have a mislynch left anyway. If we want to play it super safe after xrz flips scum:
Lynch Tofu, if town then cjs + clarity = scum, town wins
if tofu = scum then only 1 scum left and still a bunch of town reads
Basically, if exar flips red then town almost certainly wins. I think CJS/Clarity are the other 2 scum but it does not matter as we can spare the lynch on Tofu first, and I cannot be nightkilled. I can push Tofu and CJS lynches before I am shot twice, and if CJS flips godfather then everyone knows to lynch Clarity
If the scum team is Exar/CJS/Clarity then you cannot win unless you somehow have a janitor to shoot me.
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Also, if the scum team is xrz/tofu/+1 then it's all good because we can lynch scum day 3 and 4.
If XRZ is scum then we are golden. If XRZ is town then...not so much 
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On August 03 2013 08:00 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 07:57 raynpelikoneet wrote:On August 03 2013 07:56 Clarity_nl wrote:
I think if xrz flips town we can figure the game out d4.
They'll probably kill rayn, or I suppose they might just roleblock him when xrz flips town.
Best scenario is if xrz flips roleblocker.
Like, are you assuming that scum cannot have a roleblocker and GF hz? Could you explain your reasoning? Clarity, there is one cop and one vet (which can´t be blocked). The setup is already hard as it´s 10 vs 4. Do you think there is a godfather + roleblocker vs one cop? I see it as a possibility, but yes it's unlikely. That's why if xrz flips red I really don't wanna lynch cjs
You probably know more about the setup than me. Assuming that Xrz flips scum goon and scum do not have both anti-cop PRs, then the percentage play is actually to lynch FT day 4, because even if he flips town we still win (just lynch Cora and Clarity). If FT flips scum we are 6-1.
Now, that is all assuming that Xrz flips scum. If Xrz flips town then we are 5-3, but with 3 confirmed town.
I think we are getting really good odds from an xrz lynch even if you think that the chance of him being scum is not super high.
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I know I will get shit for posting this, but if scum cannot have both RB and GF...
Clarity, I be a gentleman and make this clear: If you are scum and we lynch Exar today, you cannot possibly win as long as town sticks to a set of pre-determined lynches, so you and I do not even need to argue about it! 
If Exar flips red today and you are town we will end up 6-1 on day 5, again as long as town agree to stick to a plan based on there not being both a godfather and roleblocker.
If Exar flips green then we are 5-3 on day 4 but with 3 confirmed town (hzflank, Clarity and Cora).
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I take it you did not agree with my point on why Exar un-claimed cop, Rayn?
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On August 03 2013 08:16 FirmTofu wrote:
I'm confused. How are CJS and Clarity confirmed scum if XRZ = scum and I = town?
This seems to be based purely on speculative associations and I see no reason to believe that this is even remotely likely.
Why would scum-xrz possibly of fake-claimed cop when he did? If he is scum he would have to of had a reason, no? Unless you think he did it just to mess with us?
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On August 03 2013 08:16 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 08:14 hzflank wrote:I take it you did not agree with my point on why Exar un-claimed cop, Rayn? Yeah i don´t. That´s so far-fetched and Cora is right about that.
Meh, in my mind xrz had just been asked to justify why he cop checked Oats, so that whole paragraph was him justifying it.
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On August 03 2013 08:19 justanothertownie wrote:
Right. Means CJS is scum but not necessarily clarity although possible.
Rayn got a green check on CJS. He cannot be scum unless godfather. If CJS is godfather than Clarity was not roleblocked.
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If no one agrees with me then I need to look at it again tomorrow. I am very comfortable with this game as long as I know why xrz unclaimed. Otherwise I have no clue what is going on.
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I have nothing on Clarity. We have a green check on CJS though, so he would be the godfather. It's process of elimination based on the setup. If you think that scum have a roleblocker and a GF then you better hope to see a doctor flip on the N3 nightkill. Which would mean scum have to shoot someone other than the cop.
Sorry FT, but if Exar flips red D3 and Raun flips cop N3, then lynching you D4 gives the town the best chance of winning. Unless you can come of with some reason why scum-Exar claimed cop that does not involve saving you or CJS.
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On August 03 2013 08:34 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 08:28 raynpelikoneet wrote:
FT why is Clarity scummy if XRZ flips town? I was thinking about his reaction to the XRZ claim. He immediately discredited it and professed a desire to vote XRZ instead of his check. This made think that they are not of the same alignment. Additionally, he wanted to vote the cop claim instead of the useless person who the check was attacking. Doesn't make much sense to lynch a possible cop over a possible VT.
So the fact that Clarity claimed N1 roleblock and xrz claimed N2 roleblock means nothing?
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On August 03 2013 08:36 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 08:30 hzflank wrote:
I have nothing on Clarity. We have a green check on CJS though, so he would be the godfather. It's process of elimination based on the setup. If you think that scum have a roleblocker and a GF then you better hope to see a doctor flip on the N3 nightkill. Which would mean scum have to shoot someone other than the cop.
Sorry FT, but if Exar flips red D3 and Raun flips cop N3, then lynching you D4 gives the town the best chance of winning. Unless you can come of with some reason why scum-Exar claimed cop that does not involve saving you or CJS. I still fail to see how XRZ and I are connected in any way. You still haven't explained this to me. XRZ saved CJS. If he flips scum, you should wholeheartedly endorse a CJS lynch on Day 4.
If he flips roleblocker we can discuss it. If he flips goon and then Rayn flips cop, it would just be bad play to lynch anyone other than you on D4.
There is just as much chance of Exar claiming cop to save you as there is of him doing it to save clarity. As we have a green check on CJS and a N1 roleblocked claim by Clarity we have nothing to lose by lynching you first. Ofcourse if we lynch Cora first and he flips town then we have a lot to lose, as we would not know for sure who the last scum is.
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On August 03 2013 08:38 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 08:36 hzflank wrote:On August 03 2013 08:34 FirmTofu wrote:On August 03 2013 08:28 raynpelikoneet wrote:
FT why is Clarity scummy if XRZ flips town? I was thinking about his reaction to the XRZ claim. He immediately discredited it and professed a desire to vote XRZ instead of his check. This made think that they are not of the same alignment. Additionally, he wanted to vote the cop claim instead of the useless person who the check was attacking. Doesn't make much sense to lynch a possible cop over a possible VT. So the fact that Clarity claimed N1 roleblock and xrz claimed N2 roleblock means nothing? I think it is more likely that scum have a roleblocker than not. I think one of them is probably lying, but not both. Speculating on this is rather useless because either of them could be lying.
It's more likely the guy who got roleblocked N2 is lying. You do not waste a roleblock on N1 without a good reason, and I would assume that the scum team has at least one person on it with enough experience to know this.
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On August 03 2013 08:47 justanothertownie wrote:
So probably xrz is scum after all...
Yep. Mal voted himself and Exar voted Mal. Stutters voted FT. That means most of the scum were voting for other scum.
So if you are town (which I do not know, sorry) then it is highly likely that Exar is scum.
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Tofu...you are missing things. If you think that Exar and CJS are both scum them Clarity 100000000% has to be the final scum. For those that missed it, thats 100000000%.
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Also, if Rayn is lying about the cop claim then we will know when he does not die N3
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Rayn, are you sure that Oats is town? I dont know him...are you absolutely sure he would of roleblocked you?
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JAT, you are a fast learner!
Don't you agree that if Exar flips red and Rayn dies, the best play is to lynch FT just to be safe?
I am pretty sure Stutters will be down for an FT lynch. Clarity will totally go for an FT lynch too. It should not be a problem for us to get a majority.
Safe plays are the best plays.
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On August 03 2013 12:06 exarezee wrote:
do i need to post anything else? u guys seem convinced lynching me is the best play.
Well I do not think there is benefit in us rehashing the same argument that we had yesterday.
Do you still think that Tofu is scum? Anyone else?
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Rayn, How sure are you that Oats is town?
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EPT
