EPTTitanic Mini Mafia! - Page 22
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On August 03 2013 03:37 raynpelikoneet wrote: All i am saying is that if exarezee is town he just threw the game with his incredibly stupid D3 actions and we should lynch him for that. I agree. But... If we can say that the 100% only reason that scum-Exar would possibly do what he did if FT is also scum then we probably get better odds by lynching FT today instead of Exar, no? If it is not possible that Exar is scum and FT is town, but the opposite is possible, then it makes more sense to lynch FT imo. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
However, due to the great risk of scum claiming cop I do not think it would of been a good play to save GF-Cora. Saving RB-FT would of been better for scum as if the Roleblocker flips then Clarity is town. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On August 03 2013 03:41 raynpelikoneet wrote: If exarezee was protecting his scumbuddy from getting lynched that dude he was protecting was CJS and not FT, as he himself pointed out. Well we do need to ask ourselves why Exar would of pulled that if he were scum. Was killing Mal and risking himself worth saving the GF? | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
Also, CJS voted for Mal quite early and pushed it a bit. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On August 03 2013 03:44 raynpelikoneet wrote: Because in that case mafia has no roleblocker and their only role is GF-Corazon. There is no reason to protect a roleblocker that does not exist. Even still, is that worth the risk? Saving the RB would of been worth it not only because they save the power role, but also because they prevent Clarity being confirmed town. Saving the GF does not prevent anyone additional being confirmed town unless they know that the cop will soon check the GF. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
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On August 03 2013 03:53 IMCaptainJackSparrow wrote: Are you guys actively thinking about scenarios where Rayn and XRC are both town or are you just slipping more and more into confirmation bias? Well, I can only do one thing at a time. First I am making sure why I think XRZ would do what he did as scum. Then I am going to look into what it means if XRZ did what he did at town. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On August 03 2013 04:13 Koshi wrote: rayn is there a chance that scum let you/xrz alive because it kinda looked like you were going to get lynched today? Vayne was saying that he figured out who the scums were. Maybe scum believed that and took vayne out? They didn't care about a Oats check because Oats is town/GF and just RB on XRZ from who they believed was cop? Vayne did not have the whol scum team nailed because he thought that Rayn was scum. On August 03 2013 04:13 Koshi wrote: I think the best way to handle this is to leave both rayn and XRZ alive. Just kill somebody else that you think is scum. XRZ pulling that move to kill Malongo without cop claim is the only thing that makes him look scum to me atm. Why are you even considering lynching Rayn at this point? | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
Koshi is scum because he is not considering who should be lynched today  | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On August 03 2013 04:37 Koshi wrote: Ok, who remembers how big the chance was: 1) we were going to lynch rayn 2) rayn was actually a cop during night phase. This is better formatting. Why? continue please. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On August 03 2013 04:38 Koshi wrote: Maybe scum didn't believe rayn was a cop anymore. I am pretty sure that I didn't believe rayn was a cop and that XRZ was the real cop. I thought that Rayn was more likely to be scum than cop. But I did not think that Rayn was VT. Scum or Cop for me and scum knew of Rayn's alignment already. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On August 03 2013 04:40 FirmTofu wrote: Alright, I'm finally at my computer for a few minutes. In my opinion, the XRZ lynch gives us more information, but rayn is far more likely to flip scum based on his behavior throughout this game. @XRZ Why are you willing to lynch me even though the entire case on me rests on you being scum? Are you claiming Cop then? Because if you think that scum have an RB and all town has is a Vet then I have a bridge to sell you. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On August 03 2013 04:42 FirmTofu wrote: @rayn What exactly makes Clarity/CJS/Oats confirmed town if XRZ flips town? I didn't really follow that reasoning. Town has Vet and Cop. If Exar flips town then he was telling the truth about being roleblocked. Scum do not have a RBer and a GF as they would be imbalanced. Rayn has a green check on CJS. Clarity was roleblocked. Oats is not confirmed town, just a little bit more likely based on assumptions (Rayn said he was going to check Oats). | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On August 03 2013 04:43 Koshi wrote: Well maybe scum didn't believe that rayn was a cop (not too many of us did), so that means that they don't have to kill him with him being a prime lynchtarget. The small off-chance that he might be a cop he was going to go for Oats, something mafia allowed for x reason. There are so many possibilities left in this game. I think that only a very few are confirmed town. I would say rayn/hz at this point? It's possible, but not likely. Based on what Rayn did both at the start and the end of D2 he was likely to be either scum or cop. Scum knew that Rayn was not scum, so if they thought that he was not Cop they made a big mistake. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On August 03 2013 04:51 FirmTofu wrote: Thank you hz, I appreciate it. If I understand you correctly, you are saying scum do not have an RBer and GF because both Clarity and XRZ are scum, yes? What if Clarity fakeclaimed that he was roleblocked and then XRZ actually got roleblocked? Is this not a possibility? Scum do not have Rber and Gf if town only have vet and cop in a 10/4 majority setup, because it would be completely imbalanced and this host is not a bastard. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On August 03 2013 04:55 FirmTofu wrote: Why can't Oats be GF? Why can't CJS be GF? If either of them are GF then scum should not have a roleblocker. If scum do not have a roleblocker then Clarity and XRZ lied about being roleblocked. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
Oats Clarity CJS Rayn Stutters hzflank Koshi Tofu JAT Exar I am surprised that Koshi, Tofu and JAT do not think that Exar is likely scum. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On August 03 2013 05:01 Stutters695 wrote: It seems pretty obvious scum only has 1kp so you have to remember the game is balanced around that as well. In a normal 12/4 after n2 you're looking at 8/4 or 9/3 and scum might have another night of 2kp depending on the host(if kp rounds up or down). But this was a 10/4, not a 12/4, and therefore balanced around 1 KP from the start. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On August 03 2013 05:04 FirmTofu wrote: So you are saying GF + Roleblocker would be unbalanced therefore it's impossible? Your whole argument hinges on setup speculation and implied balance? Yep. Then again you are saying that Rayn might not be Cop so town only has a Vet while scum has a roleblocker. | ||
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