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On August 03 2013 04:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 04:46 FirmTofu wrote:
rayn, if you are town, then you need to stop attacking me and answer my questions properly. I am willing to give you a chance but you aren't even willing to consider the possibility that I am town.
Can we agree to a truce until I can get my bearings around how this new interaction with you and XRZ makes me feel about you? Your assumption is that i am mafia and XRZ is town. Do you really think mafia has a roleblocker in a game where they have nothing to roleblock as the only role for town would be a veteran? In addition to this, if we lynch exarezee and he some-fucking-how flips town, that clears: 1) Clarity because scum have a roleblocker, and roleblocking one of their own on N1 is beyond stupid. 2) Oats because he can´t be a godfather, and if he was mafia scum would not let me check him on N2. 3) Corazon because i have a green check on him. There is not a roleblocker + GF versus one cop, that´s impossible.
Why can't Oats be GF? Why can't CJS be GF?
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On August 03 2013 05:01 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 04:55 FirmTofu wrote:On August 03 2013 04:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:On August 03 2013 04:46 FirmTofu wrote:
rayn, if you are town, then you need to stop attacking me and answer my questions properly. I am willing to give you a chance but you aren't even willing to consider the possibility that I am town.
Can we agree to a truce until I can get my bearings around how this new interaction with you and XRZ makes me feel about you? Your assumption is that i am mafia and XRZ is town. Do you really think mafia has a roleblocker in a game where they have nothing to roleblock as the only role for town would be a veteran? In addition to this, if we lynch exarezee and he some-fucking-how flips town, that clears: 1) Clarity because scum have a roleblocker, and roleblocking one of their own on N1 is beyond stupid. 2) Oats because he can´t be a godfather, and if he was mafia scum would not let me check him on N2. 3) Corazon because i have a green check on him. There is not a roleblocker + GF versus one cop, that´s impossible. Why can't Oats be GF? Why can't CJS be GF? You can´t possibly think this because you think i am mafia! If i am mafia there is no cop, does roleblocker + godfather make sense to you in a setup where there is nothing to roleblock or no cheks?!?!?!?!?!?!?
Obviously, your theory relies on the assumption that you are town. Like I said, I'm willing to roll with that for now in order to ascertain XRZ's alignment.
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On August 03 2013 04:59 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 04:55 FirmTofu wrote:On August 03 2013 04:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:On August 03 2013 04:46 FirmTofu wrote:
rayn, if you are town, then you need to stop attacking me and answer my questions properly. I am willing to give you a chance but you aren't even willing to consider the possibility that I am town.
Can we agree to a truce until I can get my bearings around how this new interaction with you and XRZ makes me feel about you? Your assumption is that i am mafia and XRZ is town. Do you really think mafia has a roleblocker in a game where they have nothing to roleblock as the only role for town would be a veteran? In addition to this, if we lynch exarezee and he some-fucking-how flips town, that clears: 1) Clarity because scum have a roleblocker, and roleblocking one of their own on N1 is beyond stupid. 2) Oats because he can´t be a godfather, and if he was mafia scum would not let me check him on N2. 3) Corazon because i have a green check on him. There is not a roleblocker + GF versus one cop, that´s impossible. Why can't Oats be GF? Why can't CJS be GF? If either of them are GF then scum should not have a roleblocker. If scum do not have a roleblocker then Clarity and XRZ lied about being roleblocked.
So you are saying GF + Roleblocker would be unbalanced therefore it's impossible? Your whole argument hinges on setup speculation and implied balance?
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On August 03 2013 05:06 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 05:04 FirmTofu wrote:On August 03 2013 04:59 hzflank wrote:On August 03 2013 04:55 FirmTofu wrote:On August 03 2013 04:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:On August 03 2013 04:46 FirmTofu wrote:
rayn, if you are town, then you need to stop attacking me and answer my questions properly. I am willing to give you a chance but you aren't even willing to consider the possibility that I am town.
Can we agree to a truce until I can get my bearings around how this new interaction with you and XRZ makes me feel about you? Your assumption is that i am mafia and XRZ is town. Do you really think mafia has a roleblocker in a game where they have nothing to roleblock as the only role for town would be a veteran? In addition to this, if we lynch exarezee and he some-fucking-how flips town, that clears: 1) Clarity because scum have a roleblocker, and roleblocking one of their own on N1 is beyond stupid. 2) Oats because he can´t be a godfather, and if he was mafia scum would not let me check him on N2. 3) Corazon because i have a green check on him. There is not a roleblocker + GF versus one cop, that´s impossible. Why can't Oats be GF? Why can't CJS be GF? If either of them are GF then scum should not have a roleblocker. If scum do not have a roleblocker then Clarity and XRZ lied about being roleblocked. So you are saying GF + Roleblocker would be unbalanced therefore it's impossible? Your whole argument hinges on setup speculation and implied balance? Yep. Then again you are saying that Rayn might not be Cop so town only has a Vet while scum has a roleblocker.
Again, I would like to stress that all of these questions are asked with the assumption that rayn is town. I'm trying to see where you're coming from hz.
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Are we playing with the assumption that there are no more town power roles alive right now?
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On August 03 2013 05:11 FirmTofu wrote:
Are we playing with the assumption that there are no more town power roles alive right now?
Other than the claimed ones, that is.
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On August 03 2013 05:13 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 05:11 FirmTofu wrote:On August 03 2013 05:11 FirmTofu wrote:
Are we playing with the assumption that there are no more town power roles alive right now? Other than the claimed ones, that is. Yes, absolutely. If we have another power role then some things change. Not everything changes, though.
One last question. If there is a blue out there, not revealing his role, would it be in town's best interest to have him reveal?
Consider all the possibilities. Hidden Doc/Cop/Vig/Vet
Obviously, vig and vet are unlikely to be hidden, but I think a hidden doc or even a cop is still a possibility.
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On August 03 2013 05:18 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 05:16 FirmTofu wrote:On August 03 2013 05:13 hzflank wrote:On August 03 2013 05:11 FirmTofu wrote:On August 03 2013 05:11 FirmTofu wrote:
Are we playing with the assumption that there are no more town power roles alive right now? Other than the claimed ones, that is. Yes, absolutely. If we have another power role then some things change. Not everything changes, though. One last question. If there is a blue out there, not revealing his role, would it be in town's best interest to have him reveal? Consider all the possibilities. Hidden Doc/Cop/Vig/Vet Obviously, vig and vet are unlikely to be hidden, but I think a hidden doc or even a cop is still a possibility. It could only be a doctor. If it were a cop he would of claimed by now considering we have had 3 other cop claims. A vig would of shot by now and I am Vet. We cannot be 100% certain that there is no doctor, but we might as well play as if there is no doctor. If they need to claim then they will.
I am satisfied with that answer.
As for XRZ, I can see where you are coming from. I am willing to lynch him on the grounds that his Day 1 was terrible, but I think rayn's case on XRZ hinges too much on setup speculation.
Consider this. Mafia have 3 goons and a RBer. Couldn't we have 0 cops, 1 vet, 1 doc, rest VT. Wouldn't it still be balanced?
I tried speculating setup in NWM and it worked out very poorly for me. I'm not going to make that mistake again. If we are lynching XRZ today, I will vote him because of a bad Day 1 and for information. Nothing more, nothing less.
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On August 03 2013 05:25 Koshi wrote:
XRZ his day 2 was horrible if he didn't have a red check on Malongo. He did nothing...
I think his early Day 2 was good. In fact, it was mostly night 1 and early Day 2 that cleared him in my eyes. Then, when he made the cop claim, I didn't understand his behavior at all. The Malongo flip made me warm up to him again.
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On August 03 2013 05:26 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 05:23 FirmTofu wrote:On August 03 2013 05:18 hzflank wrote:On August 03 2013 05:16 FirmTofu wrote:On August 03 2013 05:13 hzflank wrote:On August 03 2013 05:11 FirmTofu wrote:On August 03 2013 05:11 FirmTofu wrote:
Are we playing with the assumption that there are no more town power roles alive right now? Other than the claimed ones, that is. Yes, absolutely. If we have another power role then some things change. Not everything changes, though. One last question. If there is a blue out there, not revealing his role, would it be in town's best interest to have him reveal? Consider all the possibilities. Hidden Doc/Cop/Vig/Vet Obviously, vig and vet are unlikely to be hidden, but I think a hidden doc or even a cop is still a possibility. It could only be a doctor. If it were a cop he would of claimed by now considering we have had 3 other cop claims. A vig would of shot by now and I am Vet. We cannot be 100% certain that there is no doctor, but we might as well play as if there is no doctor. If they need to claim then they will. I am satisfied with that answer. As for XRZ, I can see where you are coming from. I am willing to lynch him on the grounds that his Day 1 was terrible, but I think rayn's case on XRZ hinges too much on setup speculation. Consider this. Mafia have 3 goons and a RBer. Couldn't we have 0 cops, 1 vet, 1 doc, rest VT. Wouldn't it still be balanced? I tried speculating setup in NWM and it worked out very poorly for me. I'm not going to make that mistake again. If we are lynching XRZ today, I will vote him because of a bad Day 1 and for information. Nothing more, nothing less. It's possible, but it is unlikely. Also, answer me this: VT-Exar gives out a guilty check on Malongo 30 mins before the deadline. What happens if Malongo flips green?
We lynch XRZ. Ah, I see your point. Why would non-cop XRZ claim and kill someone if he wasn't 100% sure about the flip? In order for him to have known, he had to have been scum or cop. If he fakeclaimed, the only possibility is scum.
Alright, I can see why XRZ is scum.
##Unvote
##Vote:exarezee
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Quick question to all of you out there.
If XRZ flips scum, why would that make me scum? If anything, XRZ's claim saved Cora from a lynch, not me. I only had 2-3 votes on me when the claim took place.
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Going to the gym, be back in about 2 hours.
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I'm confused. How are CJS and Clarity confirmed scum if XRZ = scum and I = town?
This seems to be based purely on speculative associations and I see no reason to believe that this is even remotely likely.
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On August 03 2013 08:17 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 08:16 FirmTofu wrote:
I'm confused. How are CJS and Clarity confirmed scum if XRZ = scum and I = town?
This seems to be based purely on speculative associations and I see no reason to believe that this is even remotely likely. Why would scum-xrz possibly of fake-claimed cop when he did? If he is scum he would have to of had a reason, no? Unless you think he did it just to mess with us?
There are two possible reasons
1) To get people off of CJS.
2) To make a big play by attempting to confirm (possibly) his entire team as town in the process.
Yes, CJS is a good candidate, but not because he's related to Clarity. He's a good candidate because he's XRZ could've made the play to make him look town and probably another teammate as well.
Sorry, I was more asking about how Clarity is scum, not CJS.
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Personally, I think Clarity is NULL if XRZ flips scum, but is possible scum if XRZ flips town.
Aside from the potential roleblock fakeclaim, what dirt do you really have on Clarity?
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On August 03 2013 08:28 raynpelikoneet wrote:
FT why is Clarity scummy if XRZ flips town?
I was thinking about his reaction to the XRZ claim. He immediately discredited it and professed a desire to vote XRZ instead of his check. This made think that they are not of the same alignment. Additionally, he wanted to vote the cop claim instead of the useless person who the check was attacking.
Doesn't make much sense to lynch a possible cop over a possible VT.
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On August 03 2013 08:30 hzflank wrote:
I have nothing on Clarity. We have a green check on CJS though, so he would be the godfather. It's process of elimination based on the setup. If you think that scum have a roleblocker and a GF then you better hope to see a doctor flip on the N3 nightkill. Which would mean scum have to shoot someone other than the cop.
Sorry FT, but if Exar flips red D3 and Raun flips cop N3, then lynching you D4 gives the town the best chance of winning. Unless you can come of with some reason why scum-Exar claimed cop that does not involve saving you or CJS.
I still fail to see how XRZ and I are connected in any way. You still haven't explained this to me. XRZ saved CJS. If he flips scum, you should wholeheartedly endorse a CJS lynch on Day 4.
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On August 03 2013 08:36 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 08:34 FirmTofu wrote:On August 03 2013 08:28 raynpelikoneet wrote:
FT why is Clarity scummy if XRZ flips town? I was thinking about his reaction to the XRZ claim. He immediately discredited it and professed a desire to vote XRZ instead of his check. This made think that they are not of the same alignment. Additionally, he wanted to vote the cop claim instead of the useless person who the check was attacking. Doesn't make much sense to lynch a possible cop over a possible VT. So the fact that Clarity claimed N1 roleblock and xrz claimed N2 roleblock means nothing?
I think it is more likely that scum have a roleblocker than not. I think one of them is probably lying, but not both. Speculating on this is rather useless because either of them could be lying.
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Alright, this is where I stand.
If XRZ flips town:
I think it's probably JAT, Stutters, rayn/Clarity/Koshi.
rayn could be lying about the cop claim, but I'm deferring to hz's best judgement on this. I have to agree that no cop is pretty unlikely so until another claim comes up, rayn could still be town.
If XRZ flips scum:
I think it's probably CJS, JAT, Koshi, maybe Stutters.
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On August 03 2013 08:49 hzflank wrote:
Tofu...you are missing things. If you think that Exar and CJS are both scum them Clarity 100000000% has to be the final scum. For those that missed it, thats 100000000%.
Whatever, we can discuss that when the time comes. Not too worried about that read right now.
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EPT
