EPTA Bluelightz Mafia "The Attack" - Page 101
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Onegu
United States9699 Posts
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FiveTouch
Marshall Islands1474 Posts
On July 27 2013 13:14 Onegu wrote: Has VE posted anything recently? No, I don't think so, which is exceedingly irritating because I'm relying on him picking up the slack for me this weekend - I'm out of action basically until after the lynch today and he's not been very present in our QT. I basically have 30-40 minutes right now to try to give direction to the thread which is not very optimal. I'm hoping VE comes back and owns some face this evening. Gonna read what I've missed. oh, hi Vivax. ~marv | ||
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Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
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FiveTouch
Marshall Islands1474 Posts
I'm sticking with Cora town, don't think scum basically counterclaim within a minute of seeing a claim. I'm a pretty reactive, strong-willed mafia player and I have a lot more experience than Cora, and I don't think I'd manage to do it so quickly. It just requires a hell of a lot of thought to weigh up the pros and cons that I don't think happens in a minute. Going to say TG town for now, the day 1 vote I think means so little (discussed with austin/me/getmo at some point) just because of the deadline + afk players. I know VE believes this too, maybe he can clarify later. Also going to stick with Onegu town, dumb claim was dumb but it's simply so much dumber as mafia Bringing me down to JJD/kirby/austin (vivax). Kinda flipflopping on JJD but I think I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt right now - this especially may be subject to VE change which leaves me with kirby/austin. If I were going to be here I might explore and push this austin thing more, but I don't have that luxury. Which leaves me with kirby; as I pointed out before, the only thing I like in kirby's filter is his long post (coincidentally when he was looking like he would get shot - could be coincidence, could not. meh). The rest is pretty dodgy, blind tunnel on Oats, calling out Oats for activity (? compare his own), being pretty behind the curve with the claim stuff, blablabla. Gonna put my vote there, also gonna cross my fingers that VE comes and carries today for me in my absence. ##Vote: jrkirby | ||
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FiveTouch
Marshall Islands1474 Posts
1) he's going head to head with getmoript, someone already viewed as significantly more townie than Corazon. Already the chances of winning that battle are pretty small 2) EVEN if he did win that battle, getmoript gets lynched and flips detective. But then that gives away *both* TAA and Corazon. The net of it being that even in the *best case* scenario for Corazon, he's trading 1 townie for 2 mafia. Seems terribly unlikely, no? | ||
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Vivax
22314 Posts
On July 27 2013 20:09 FiveTouch wrote: Just one more note on Cora, and this is to Firm especially. Presumably Corazon would be claiming to save his scumbuddy, TAA. There's a couple things to note about that. 1) he's going head to head with getmoript, someone already viewed as significantly more townie than Corazon. Already the chances of winning that battle are pretty small 2) EVEN if he did win that battle, getmoript gets lynched and flips detective. But then that gives away *both* TAA and Corazon. The net of it being that even in the *best case* scenario for Corazon, he's trading 1 townie for 2 mafia. Seems terribly unlikely, no? And yet, TAA flipped, getmoript flipped, and Corazon isn't auto-scum for it in the eyes of everyone, which proves it to be less suicidal than you're trying to portray it. Also, I'm not scum marvelbabe, considering that, who would be your alternative read if you take that at face value. Do you think DrH's D1 play was townie, do you think ALL of scum was on TG's wagon and didn't manage to get him lynched, and that the ones not voting him were townies simply too careless to get to a D1 lynch? | ||
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
Have you looked at my Tofu/Austin case. What problems do you have with it? I see it as an open and shut case for even you because of the scum tells and the interaction analysis. | ||
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TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
On July 27 2013 12:46 Onegu wrote: Null but townie TG his reaction with his rb seems real and I dont see scum makeing a rb on thier own player I just dont, also his activity has picked up markedly with actual scum hunting even though I disagree with his reads. Firm fairly active, makes decent reads answers questions well and in a timely manner, this is my 4th game with him I think and this is concurrent with his town meta Onegu, Don't use meta when you have enough information to do a proper read. Meta for more probabilistic, WIFOM, and low information moments. Scum don't post actively because they might scum slip. This is meta. But once they are active, LOOK for presence and absence of scum slips!! Don't just say. Oh it's town meta. Tofu slipped up on Day 1 quite enough for Rayn. | ||
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Onegu
United States9699 Posts
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TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
Meta strategy fails and works entirely based on whether or not you are ahead of the meta. Use it when you don't have the rest. Reads are so much stronger when you aren't using the meta. | ||
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Vivax
22314 Posts
I think TG should be lynched for the reason that he was spared by scum D1 imo (DrH-probable and TAA-confirmed). I'm not sure if there are three or four scum in this game, in any case, I think TG and Onegu should be lynched next. I am also suspicious of jkirby and Cora. The push jkirby->shoot Oats thing->back to kirby by Onegu and his strange development of his "reads" (town->scum on austin; town->scum on kirby;scum->town on TG, and all of that overnight) make me think of a bus and that he's scum. | ||
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Onegu
United States9699 Posts
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Onegu
United States9699 Posts
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
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TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
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Onegu
United States9699 Posts
On July 27 2013 22:17 TanGeng wrote: Argh. I'm so solid on my read now, I can't even objectively read Vivax and compare him to old austinmcc for the unconvinced. Meaning? | ||
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TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
Just comes off as scummy. | ||
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TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
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TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
Evaluate my austinmcc/Tofu argument for me. The TL/DR is the two of them scum slipped hard by performing a rehearsed conversation for the rest of town to see. Do you see, understand, and/or are convinced by that case? I need to see where I need to strengthen or clarify my case. I also need to take a step back. | ||
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TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
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