will become an /in if game has not started by Friday
Newbie Mini Mafia XLIII
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will become an /in if game has not started by Friday | ||
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On June 20 2013 07:30 geript wrote: NMM XLIII is now over. Dandel Ion has won. I will start up a new NMM game for anyone who wants to join. + Show Spoiler + Ace will coach mafia gg go next? | ||
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On June 20 2013 10:32 Aquanim wrote: Is someone who is jailed by the Yellow Ranger (roleblocker) informed that they have been roleblocked? I know they are not informed if they are saved, but what about the roleblock itself? The role description doesn't specify. Never mind, I read the setup notes spoiler and the answer is yes. | ||
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On June 22 2013 20:16 Spicydinosaur wrote: This would be my fourth game. I played 2 newbie games and Les Mafia. Thought it was 3 games max, regardless of type. I'd play if a mod gives an ok. The OP states: This game is open to players with 3 or fewer games on this forum. You have three games, so this game is open to you. This is my fourth game too (The wording is a little confusing, it's true). | ||
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On June 24 2013 12:30 FirmTofu wrote: Quoted Player List for reference: We still have yet to hear from Onegu, fyfy, Alakaslam, and LoneMeow. You wound me. Regarding claims I'm of the opinion that the Nosy Neighbour/Alpha 5 should claim now. This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles. The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. If we establish that a Nosy Neighbour should claim now, anyone claiming it later is caught scum. Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means. No other power roles should claim, that would be daft. (However, scum should feel free to claim their roles.) Regarding scum Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons. 1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me. On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote: Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up. What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread? Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous. 2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own. ##Vote: Chromatically | ||
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On June 24 2013 13:33 Hurricane Sponge wrote: The argument against NN/ Alpha 5 claiming as it was explained to me in this thread is that it won't take a shot away from the power roles, but in fact do the opposite. Mafia might keep him around all game and take shots at the OTHER people since there is now a higher % chance that they are Power Roles. But what if our Parity Cop claimed NN! Brb WIFOM Hell. (That was joke.) There are apparently a lot of other reasons NN should not claim now, but I'm not in the best position to elaborate since they are not my thoughts. That's certainly a possibility, but I think it's more important that we deny scum the opportunity to fakeclaim Nosy Neighbour later. | ||
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On June 24 2013 13:36 Onegu wrote: As I have said before he provides a buffer to protect other blues, if there is a tracker for scum and it is likely and they know who nn is they can look to find other blue roles. Who cares if scum claim NN later we kill them anyway. If something wierd happens and the only explanation someone can give is I am NN we lynch them. All NN reveal does now is take away what little protection blues have. It's more likely that town (with two possible track/watch roles) will be misled by an unclaimed Nosy Neighbour than scum. I'd prefer to know that anyone claiming it later is scum than to have scum know that one particular person does not have a PR. Scum generally prioritize shooting strong townies over blue-sniping anyway, and if a claimed Nosy Neighbour (who is thus likely town) plays a strong towngame they are FAR more likely to be shot. tl;dr The advantage to town derived from scum not knowing who the NN is is tenuous at best and in my opinion non-existent. | ||
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On June 24 2013 14:10 hzflank wrote: My take on this: NN claiming is a bad idea as they are likely to be lynched day 1, which ensures that a town is lynched day 1. I come to this conclusion because the person claiming NN may be scum, but even if they are not they do not have a useful town power role and the NN might harm the town later. For me, the day that an NN claims is the day that an NN is likely to be lynched. What. Just... what. If somebody claims Nosy Neighbour day 1, they aren't counterclaimed, and they aren't scummy, there is NO REASON to lynch them. If somebody is a Nosy Neighbour, they are MUCH MORE LIKELY to harm the town if the town doesn't know they are (likely to be) the Nosy Neighbour. Making scum claim Nosy Neighbour day one (which would be brave) or not at all is the optimal play. If we later have the choice between lynching two people who are NN or scum and we lynch the wrong one then we just lynch the scum the following day anyway. And if scum claims Nosy Neighbour at Lynch-or-Lose, which is not unlikely, we have to guess right or lose. I think that a day 1 NN claim would benefit the scum more than the town. Hurricane suggested the day 1 NN claim already and a few other people said it was a bad idea, but did not give Hurricane too much of a hard time for it. now you are making the same suggestion, which is a suggestion that will benefit scum, and I assume that you also do not think that you will get a hard time for it. Oh, I didn't agree with Hurricane's plan either, at least not the part about directing town roles such as the tracker. Players with PRs should basically always direct their powers at their own discretion. I was going to give you a hard time for voting for Chromatically as I do not agree with your first point about his initial posts. I think your second point is correct although he has said he might soon make a case (but it's against me!). Still, I find the regarding claims section of your post very scummy. Even if you think I'm wrong about the Nosy Neighbour claim, what about that makes me scummy? You need to explain this more. | ||
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On June 24 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote: I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim. Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize. Event: NN roleclaims Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing. Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets. Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation. If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum. First, scum is unlikely to claim NN day 1 for fear of being counter-claimed. Somebody who claims NN is obviously not confirmed town, but they're considerably more likely to be town. I have personally never seen a day-one miller claim (analogous to a NN, with different investigative rolls) end up being scum, and plenty end up being town. A miller/NN who is thus likely town and can thus play a strong, town-leading role is a HIGHER PRIORITY for scum to kill than a possible bluesnipe. Also, a day-one NN claim avoids two possibly disastrous situations later on: 1) An actual NN being seen visiting someone and being lynched for it. 2) Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody. Auto-lynching any NN claim is bad for in the first case, treating NN as town is bad in the second case. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes both of these. The gain in information which scum gets from a day-one NN claim IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. Even IF scum has a tracker, a NN claim reduces their pool of players to track by something like 10% (I haven't done the math but it's about that). And like I said, if the NN plays a good town game he becomes EVEN MORE IMPORTANT for scum to shoot. Scum knowing not to track the NN is less valuable than town knowing not to track him. I'm tired of trying to beat sense into y'all about this, and I'm tired of y'all calling me scum over a difference of opinion about game theory. Someone man up and vote me over this trash or start playing the game properly. On June 24 2013 16:15 Onegu wrote: I agree with this the first person who wrote about NN made me feel noob town, but the second person to post after hearing what was said against it is very odd/scummy. The other guy's plan was bad for other reasons. In this case, however, I am right, the rest of you are wrong, and I am trying to persuade you of that. I'm starting to feel like this is a waste of time though. My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please. | ||
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On June 24 2013 16:48 FirmTofu wrote: As for Chromatically... Your case is extremely weak. Addressing your point 1), you are going off a bad feeling. Feelings don't cut it for me. I need evidence to make a move. I suppose that's a fair enough position to hold. I've personally found that my reads based on 'feelings' are often more accurate than those where I carefully assemble 'evidence'. This doesn't feel to me like the town Chromatic which I played with in Newbie XXXIII. Addressing point 2), it seems quite town to me because it's forcing lurkers to talk. Talking is good for town, so I see this move as something a townie would do. Asking questions is a town-y kind of thing to do, I agree. However, in my mind it is only significantly town-y when there is an actual plan behind those questions. By comparison, Chromatic was asking pretty generic questions without any real point or follow-up. Asking other people for their reads while having shared none of his own does not sit well with me. There are a few other things that make me think Chromatically is town. He was the first person to point out the foolish aspects of Hurricane's poorly thought-out claim. What incentive would mafia have to steer town in the right direction? Pointing out that some plan or another is stupid before anyone else does is a really cheap way of accumulating town-cred without committing to anything. Someone was going to shoot that plan down either way, so a scum player would have nothing to gain from not shooting it down. All this being said, I think that what he's done so far could plausibly be explained by a town mentality as well as a scum one. If he comes back tomorrow and starts playing a good town-game I'll be looking to lynch somebody else. For the meantime, though, my vote and intention stays. | ||
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On June 24 2013 16:59 Onegu wrote: It is better to vote for lurkers who have posted one time and stopped then to vote for someone who hasnt posted anything because they will most likely get replaced or modkilled. It is even better to vote for people who have posted some stuff but haven't been useful, since you'll probably get a reaction out of them (and others) which will help you find scum. Voting a lurker doesn't accomplish much at this point in the day. | ||
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On June 24 2013 17:55 Hurricane Sponge wrote: I'll drop the whole NN thing if people feel like we're getting off-track with it, but it seems like we're in a holding pattern while we wait for inactives to defend themselves. Regarding the NN Claim: This is a part of the game I clearly don't understand the far-reaching implications of. Addressing point #2, specifically: "Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes (this)." Is the value of preventing a mafia NN claim later in the game more than the benefit of having a real NN around to counter-claim it in the moment, catching the scum in the act? (This assumes the remaining townies have pegged the real NN as more town than the first claimant). Do not get discouraged- I would like to hear your thoughts on this subject, and it's important to emphasize that people make up their own minds on this matter as there is likely at least 1 scum trying to steer public opinion in the 'wrong' direction on this issue. You seem to have already convinced FirmTofu, and this is the kind of matter we can get Town Consensus on now in the early game. The trouble with relying on a Nosy Neighbour counter-claiming later on is that we have no guarantee that there is even a Nosy Neighbour in the game. If there isn't, and scum fake-claims it, they get away scot-free. Sure, we could lynch an uncounterclaimed Nosy Neighbour, but enforcing a claim of it day 1 avoids considerations of "did he only claim it to avoid a lynch?". If there is an actual NN, and scum fake-claims it, then they get counter-claimed and lynched, which is OK. Also, if there is a Nosy Neighbour and they are forced to claim at LYLO, then scum can counter-claim and leave us with a 50-50 chance (which might be a lot better than what they faced before). Since scum would probably only claim NN if it was a choice between a fakeclaim and being lynched, if the NN claim is not available to them they're just as dead (if not more) than if they were counter-claimed anyway. Thus there is no advantage to leaving a NN claim till later in the hopes of counterclaiming a fakeclaim. | ||
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On June 24 2013 18:55 fyfy wrote: I don't know why I'm being voted day 1 when I haven't posted anything yet, I'm sure this kind of behaviour is exactly what the scum wants us to do. I'm sorry if there's no meta on me cause this is my first game and I would like to have my first game where I am not dead the first day. I can honestly assure everyone that I am town and killing me is a bad idea. EDIT: I know I sound scummy but I guess that's what you're all going to have :/ You're being voted because FirmTofu wasn't man enough to put his vote on somebody he thought would talk back. Don't worry about it, just read the thread and let us know who you think is suspicious. I'd appreciate hearing your thoughts on what's happened in the game so far sometime in the next few hours. | ||
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On June 24 2013 20:43 Chromatically wrote: Aqua, are you scum? Both of these things are towntells. Explain to me the scum motivation in getting discussion rolling early day 1, which was OBVIOUSLY the reason that I pressured Spicy (and it worked). Sorry, if you thought that it was "ludicrous", but it doesn't make me scum and you know it. Oh, I don't have a problem with you starting the discussion - but the way in which you chose to do it made me feel uneasy. Calling somebody out for leaving for five minutes? Really? A very slight gut read was really all that ever boiled down to. If you wanted to know about someone, you could just asked me. I'm not just going to randomly post reads if I'm not going to push for their lynch, but I'll definitely tell you what I think of someone or who my scumreads are. Why wouldn't you ask me for my scumreads if you wanted them? Probably because that's not actually what you want at all. Someone else asked me for scumreads, and I posted mine right below your post, but you haven't reacted to that at all. Does this point still stand even after I've posted my scumreads? Or did your opinion not change at all for some reason? Those reads were pretty weak, I'd like to see more from you. No, it didn't feel like either of them, but I don't expect your scumgame to be the same as XXXI - you have learned a lot since then, I think. I am very, very uncomfortable with you, Aqua, because you are usually very town from your first post. This game, you've done a lot of shitting up the thread with stuff about claims and NNs. I kept getting asked about and called scum over the NN stuff, I would really have preferred for that not to drag out the way it did. tl;dr I had uneasy feelings about you but I feel a lot better after reading this post. My vote was fundamentally to draw reactions from you (to clarify my read) and other people, and to start some meaningful discussion (I don't think anything is accomplished in a thread until somebody's thrown down a vote). Go find some scum. ##Unvote | ||
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On June 25 2013 00:06 Onegu wrote: Umm what does TL;DR mean? too long; didn't read. I've been using it to indicate the summary of my longer posts. | ||
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Aquanim hopes that he can get a few town to agree that the NN should out themselves. Then his scumbuddies can also agree and the NN might claim, giving an advantage to the scum team. Since Hurricane did not get a hard time, Aquanim does not think that he will be lynched for being the first to make the suggestion. Aquanim is fairly sure that when the time comes he can rely on Hurricanes vote for NN to claim, so he really only needs two more town votes, which makes it worth a try. Has it even crossed your mind that I might think I'm right about the Nosy Neighbour? The rest of the case on me is primarily related to the nature of my case on Chromatically. Remember that when I made that case it was (by a long way) the first vote of the game - nobody had any significant cases at that time. I took my case more seriously (despite its flimsiness, which I admit) because in my experience a game of Mafia only starts to progress significantly when somebody has put down a vote and is pushing, in some way, for a lynch. The reason why I backed off my case so fast is because I'd previously had only vague feelings that Chromatically was scum, and his replying post felt a lot like aggrieved town to me. You can come up with convoluted reasons as to why I would ask people about their opinions on my case, or you can accept the simpler and correct explanation that I wanted to draw reactions and make other players express their ideas and thinking about the game, which is a strong tool for finding scum. | ||
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On June 25 2013 10:44 Chromatically wrote: I think that Xzavier is actually the one I want to lynch today. Is there anything in particular that makes you want to lynch Xzavier over Onegu? Their posting to date seems to be of a similar character to me, except that Onegu has been in the thread while interesting things have happened and still hasn't contributed much. | ||
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On June 25 2013 11:40 Chromatically wrote: Tofu, you still don't like Spicy? And Aqua, who's your top read? Everyone, Xzav? I'd prefer to see Xzavier's reply before I comment on either of these in detail. I don't see any reason to believe he's town from his posts so far, though. | ||
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On June 25 2013 12:25 Chromatically wrote: Nothing else to say, Aqua? I'm not used to prompting you for reads and opinions. Don't you have any thoughts on the events of today? hz/Spicy/Tofu? I'm not interested in lynching any of those three today, if that's what you're asking. I can see the thought process of all three and I can easily see all of it coming from a town mindset, even if I don't agree with a lot of it. My current suspicions lie with Onegu and Xzavier, since they have posted a fair bit but actually said little to nothing of value. | ||
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On June 25 2013 12:44 Chromatically wrote: Alright, that's pretty much where I'm going too. But with more Alakaslam and less Onegu. I have to admit I've been having trouble understanding what Alakaslam has said so far... but I'm having difficulty seeing his thing about "spamming up the thread with bad bbcode -> scum" (link) coming from a scum player. It just feels too... enthusiastic. I get the overall impression that he is trying. I'd love to see more from him but I'd prefer to lynch Xzavier or Onegu at this point. (A quick note: LoneMeow did say pregame that he would be on vacation until the 27th, so I'm inclined not to lynch him today.) | ||
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On June 25 2013 12:50 Xzavier wrote: This post just moved Aqua to my number 1 scum list. ##VOTE Aquanim uhhh. dude, this is your first post in 12 hours, and all you did was a gree with everybody, and say whats already been said. your filter isnt that impressive and you havnt reacted or responded to pressure. you talked alot when it was about the NN meta, which all iv gleaned from is lynch anybody who claims NN at any point in the game. Because it means that they are scum, if they WERE Noisy neighbor, then they would be okay getting lynched, post all of their biggest cases before they died, become confirmed (and dead) town. We re-read his case. If its strong we lynch who he suspects and win. That would be the best way to play noisy neighbor. Claiming NN to stay alive is pretty pointless, you can say it, but it wont keep you alive. So you pretty much were encouraging a useless may as well be spam topic. you havnt actually done anything pro-town, and are using the heat on me and Onegu as a cover in order to not make a splash and still get a mislynch. Seriously? This is all you have? You want to lynch me over a single post? (Also, even if I was being a hypocrite that is not very scum-indicative.) And is there something inherently scummy about broadly agreeing with other people's opinions? I didn't go into depth with my reads because I wanted to see what you and Onegu brought to the table. You hadn't said much before, but I thought that if you were town you might pick up your game now that there is more to talk about. I am not impressed by this 'case' of yours. Also, I fail to see how making the first real case of the game, putting down the first vote of the game, and seeking reactions to it is not pro-town. I didn't read the last newbie in detail other than knowing you're not completely incompetent, so I'm not judging you based on however strong your previous towngame was - your play here is just straight-up scummy. This isn't a read based on an understanding of the thread overall, this is a read based on jumping on a post in the last page or so and trying to milk something out of it. ##Vote: Xzavier | ||
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"This scumread of yours isn't based on a understanding of the thread overall..." etc. | ||
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Him saying the bolded part really bothers me, it is a failsafe for him to later say his gut lead him to make votes without having to make cases behind it http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381931¤tpage=18#344 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=386911¤tpage=53#1045 Mate, are you in any way familiar with my meta? If I lead a wagon with serious intent to lynch somebody there WILL be a case. The other big thing about him is he kept the NN thing going way to long almost half his posts deal with the NN, when it is a bad idea, what if the NN claims day one but scum counterclaims day 4 we still dont know who is who it only give scum an advantage and for him to harp on it over and over is scummy to me. STILL this? 1) A difference of opinions on policy is not scum-indicative 2) If I knew that the NN claiming was obviously scum-favoured and that I had no chance to make it happen, why would I suggest it as town or scum? It would make me look bad either way. Your reasons for voting me are all 12 hours old. It seems a very convenient time for you to bring those up now that there are a couple of other votes on me. On June 25 2013 13:13 Xzavier wrote: OMGUS more Still pathetic. Make a real case or eat rope. | ||
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On June 25 2013 13:36 Onegu wrote: As I have said meta is useless in a noobie game as people are still figureing out thier playstyle and as I was about to sleep 12 hours ago and I just woke up I dont see how the timeing is wierd... Meta in newbies is of limited usefulness, particularly for assessing scuminess directly - people's scumgames could change dramatically. However, if someone has demonstrated a capability for making cases/scumhunting/not being utterly useless/etc. there is no reason why that capability should disappear. I won't magically choose to start playing worse just for the sake of changing my playstyle. I am making the point that I can and will make cases to justify my vote when necessary, which I can prove by citing previous games. As far as I can tell, I've refuted both of the points which make up your case on me. Is there any reason your vote is still on me? If so, please share it. | ||
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On June 25 2013 14:02 Xzavier wrote: I suppose im not catching scum fast enough for you? your entire arguement is based off meta lol lalalalalala meta I FUCKING GET WHAT YOUR SAYING. But i think what im saying also makes sense. For the record, my "LA LA LA" thing was directed at Onegu. | ||
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On June 25 2013 14:07 Xzavier wrote: Oh okay. i take it back. But do you understand that me not having a case made now doesnt mean i wont make any day2 after i have faaaaaaar more information. Like I said, I don't really know your meta and it's not relevant to my read. Your play today, in as of itself, may be summed up in three points: 1) some useless talk in the first 12 hours 2) a vote on me with poor justification 3) some unconvincing defence It's not so much that you haven't made a case as that I see no indication in your filter that you are interested in finding scum. Sure, you've put a vote down, anyone can do that, but besides that? Nothing. No questions, no pressure, no evidence that you are reading deeply into the thread as a whole, nothing. | ||
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On June 25 2013 14:32 Onegu wrote: If there will be a case then why post this about your gut? Because it's true. If I have a gut read, I do seek to substantiate it with a case to convince other people though. I don't expect anyone else to be convinced by my gut. What about this statement makes you think I couldn't say it as town? (NB. You should be thinking this about any scum read.) Sure a differance on opinion isnt scum indicative, but you postion on something pro scum and makeing multiple posts on it is. And if you make a case on it and people agree with you because they dont see the reasons could let it happen. You weren't the first person to ask for the reveal so it did have a chance to convince the NN to come forward. This is ridiculous. You just keep repeating the same thing over and over again. Even if it was a pro-scum position, plenty of people had already said they thought it was a bad idea. I knew when I made that argument that I was arguing against thread sentiment and did it anyway, because I thought (and still think) that that claim would lead to town advantage. You can't say that someone is scum just because they did some stuff which they MIGHT do as scum. You have to find something which they WOULDN'T do as town. | ||
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On June 25 2013 14:51 hzflank wrote: In my opinion, Alakaslam has posted the single most scummy sentence in this thread. On the whole I do not think Alakaslam is scummy, but I do think the following post aimed at Onegu should be taken notice of. Alakaslam, at the time that you posted that, what gave you such a strong town read on Onegu? If Alakaslam isn't your scumread, who is? Do you still think I am scum after my replies to the cases against me? In either case, who are your other scumreads? | ||
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On June 25 2013 15:13 Onegu wrote: Necause you dont have to convince everyone just the NN to reveal. And the hell I cant say someone isnt scum because they do things they might do as scum. When people do scummy things normally they are scum... I don't think you understand how the NN claim would work. It only works if EVERYBODY agrees on the plan. The reason for this is that if there is no Nosy Neighbour at all, we have to KNOW that if there was one, they would have claimed. If only a few people agree, and then don't claim it, we don't know whether there is a Nosy Neighbour among the people who didn't agree or not, and so we don't accomplish anything. In response to your second point... if there is a plausible towny explanation for all of somebody's actions, then they are likely town. Things which someone might reasonably do as both town or scum are not scummy, in fact they are not alignment-indicative at all. I have given my reasons, as a town player, for doing all of the things which you've asked me about. (And to forestall Xzavier jumping on this last part and asking what about his play could only be from scum, it's the total lack of interest in seeking new information and finding scum.) | ||
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On June 25 2013 15:29 Xzavier wrote: Honestly not today. he did a really good jpb as town last game and gave some good insights. After going threw his filter it seems like he was forced into a defensive posting pattern due to pressure. he hasnt said much recently. Honestly i wouldnt mind lynching alakazam day 1. But ill giv him a chance to respond. Im really not liking chrom or auqa for their tunnelling me while ignoring logic and basing everything off of the fact that i havnt caught scum yet or made a case. Oh for... I don't expect you to awesomely catch scum day 1 or to make some super-excellent case. I expect you to be doing SOMETHING conducive to finding scum, and you haven't at all. | ||
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On June 25 2013 15:37 Xzavier wrote: But i really dont need to right now lol. I was in the middle of making a case against you when i had to get off the pc. so i posted the little i had. you cant make a case on a phone. sorrym and im not the only one guilty of not pressuring people. hellvim one of the seven who has casted a vote and given a reason why. So why arnt you going after the lurkers who havnt even voted yet by this logic? - LoneMeow's two posts feel more constructive than the entirety of your filter - StiMaDDict is a coinflip - I feel like fyfy, Hurricane Sponge and Alakaslam are at least trying, even if they are not being very effective so far. There could well be scum in this group but I'm not nearly as confident about any one of them as I am about you and Onegu. Voting in as of itself is not scumhunting. You aren't trying to gain information by voting me and your case is pretty bad, which doesn't really leave any possible towny motivation for your vote. | ||
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On June 25 2013 15:48 fyfy wrote: I'm getting the read now that Aquanim is more scum than Xzavier as Aqua seems to be extremely defensive and I maintain my belief that Xzavier just types like a scum. Reading through the discussion, I am under the belief that Aquanim is scum. ##Vote: Aquanim Can you explain this some more? What exactly about my play do you think is scum-motivated? | ||
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On June 25 2013 15:58 fyfy wrote: Something about the way you type is off, I can't really put my finger on to it. I can't really decide whether you're really town or actually scum doing a good job pretending to be town. If anyone could help me clarify how many mafs/SKs are usually in a 12p game I think I would be able to make better decisions. There's not really much I can say to "you feel a little off". My current thoughts are that I can't believe that four people are voting me on cases this sketchy, and I'm trying to show them why they are wrong, if that helps you understand my mindset at all. Most games of this approximate size on TL have 13 players: 10 town and 3 mafia. Depending on the power role distribution, a Serial Killer could conceivably replace a townie or a scum (that is, 10T-2M-1SK or 9T-3M-1SK). However, Serial Killers are generally rare, even when they're listed as a possible role. Given that there is one less player in this game, I would expect either 9 town-3 mafia or 9 town-2 mafia-1SK. 8T-3M-1SK feels a little too difficult for town. | ||
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On June 25 2013 16:01 Onegu wrote: Can you please post your case against me as the only thing you have said is I didnt respond when things were going on, well I was going to sleep when HZ posted his case, I responded to the NN thing and have scum hunted and tried to create a useful town atmosphere. I have no idea what this request has to do with the post you quoted, but whatever... The first page and a half or so of your filter is just talking about policy, power roles and random fluff without any particular intention of finding scum. This isn't damning in as of itself, early game does tend to be like that, but the entirety of your efforts in the direction of finding scum is an overwhelming tunnel of myself. As far as I can tell, you haven't looked at anyone else at all, and endlessly tunneling a likely lynch target for the day while repeating the same old arguments (made by other people before you, mostly) over and over is a good way to look active while not actually bringing anything new to the table or having to pretend to do some original scumhunting. You haven't made any significant and new contributions to the thread, which is scum's natural state. That being said, I think it's possible that you're town and that you think tunneling me like this is accomplishing something, which is why I'm voting Xzavier over you. | ||
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On June 25 2013 16:45 Onegu wrote: Actually I have made a scum hunt albit small on alakaslam, I think he is noob scum which isnt as important as killing a scum who knows what they are doing. You mentioned that he might be scum, but I haven't seen any attempt from you to pressure him, to solidify your read on him, or to suggest him as a lynch for today - that is, you haven't committed much to your read. What about his play is scummy to you? | ||
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On June 25 2013 17:27 hzflank wrote: Xzavier, Onegu and I all seem to have similar opinions on scum voting, yet we all seem to have greatly differing personalities. This leads me to believe that Xzavier and Onegu are town, as I think they arrived at their opinions by looking at the situation from a town point of view. The only slight worry I have on Xzavier is: But that could just be a character trait or a lack of time. On the whole I am uncomfortable with the votes on Xzavier. Is there anything about Xzavier and Onegu's play which makes you think they're town besides where their vote is? Personally, I can't see anything about their play which makes me think they're looking at this game with a town mentality and actually searching for scum, rather than just jumping on the only other wagon going. I think they are likely scum but I have a much townier read on you because I can see you're thinking about the game and critically evaluating your reads. Their arguments, on the other hand, are mostly "herp derp he disagreed with us about nosy neighbours" and "look at this single post and how it agrees with something someone else said, that's so scummy!". I don't think either of them could sincerely believe I'm scum based on the arguments they've presented. You said you had some questions for me, will they be forthcoming soon? | ||
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On June 25 2013 18:08 Onegu wrote: Ok fine I will admit my case on you with my own findings isnt that strong. And looking at Alakaslam again he is my stronger case. ##: UNVOTE ##: VOTE ALAKASLAM But if we lynch Xzavier and he flips town we will be lynching you day 2. Okay. The ball's in your court now to convince the rest of us that Alakaslam is a better lynch than anyone else on the table. | ||
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I agree with Onegu that Alakaslam has been useless, but unfortunately scum has no monopoly on uselessness. That being said, there's only so much uselessness that I can tolerate. If for whatever reason we decide not to lynch Xzavier my next preferred lynch would be Alakaslam now - I don't think my read will ever get any better on him and this copout doesn't look good. Onegu's effort on the Alakaslam case hasn't removed him entirely from my scum reads, but he's certainly in the "wait and see what he does for another day to clarify read" pile now. | ||
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On June 25 2013 23:11 Spicydinosaur wrote: I'm not liking Xzavier as a D1 lynch but i see why others are voting him. Before chrom threw a vote down on him he did 0 scum hunting and his posts were just policy and/or fluff. With that i can clearly see a vote. However what he has done since the votes started piling on has convinced me he's town. An unproductive town before the vote, but a townie no less. Insulting 1/2 the people in the thread is not the best way to stop a lynch on you, in fact its a good way to guarantee it. Then he throws a quick vote on aqua with a weak reason to back it up. The vote felt very reactionary like he was going for the first scummy thing he could find, not very calculated. I know some people dont like meta in newbie games, but here i feel Xzavier was just being a lot more cautious with his scum hunting after what happened last game which didnt go so well. I also feel that a scum xzavier would be more self conscious of his 0 scum hunting up to this point and would have put something down at this point. On a lesser note, I'm very cautious of the first bandwagon (not necessarily of the person who started it) but because with the piling on its easier for scum to hide in it. I'm going to look at those who jumped on xzavier and also look at the case on aqua next. I don't see how insulting half the thread indicates townieness to you at all. If he had in fact come back and shown half the thread they'd made a huge mistake, I'd be with you, but his posts after that didn't have anything mindblowing like that. It feels to me like he was just trying to intimidate people into not voting him, rather than having an actual plan - not a completely impossible reaction from town, but I think it makes more sense as a scum move. What about "going for the first scummy thing he could find" is in any way a reaction which can only be explained by Xzavier being town? In fact, how is this not more likely as a scum reaction? I also feel that a scum xzavier would be more self conscious of his 0 scum hunting up to this point and would have put something down at this point. His vote for me was him trying to put something down at that point. Lastly, what about the first bandwagon do you think makes it easier to hide on, as opposed to later wagons? I can't see any difference. | ||
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On June 25 2013 23:31 Spicydinosaur wrote: What im getting at is that Xzavier's play doesnt feel calculated at all. What i meant by the insult comment was that it wasn't smart from a scum perspective so it gives a townie vibe to me. Xzavier's quick reaction vote can be explained 100 different ways but to me felt like he thought "oh shit im getting votes, let me make a case quick." THAT can look objectively scummy as it does to many others but to me it doesn't. As for the bandwagons, there really is no difference between hiding. If there are two bandwagons going then scum could split. But usually in the games ive played, the first person to get a wagon going typically isnt scum. Like i said before not a huge point as more of a cautious observation. I don't see how insulting the thread is bad from a scum perspective. It gives the illusion that you're confident and whatnot (and thus town) without having to do any scumhunting or anything else useful. In fact, it sounds a lot like what I've heard about Ace's style. In any case, he did do it and it hasn't "guaranteed" his lynch by any means, so I can't see how it's a bad scum move. For that matter, if it was going to guarantee his lynch, there's nothing about His case on me, while bad, isn't inherently super-scummy in as of itself. If bad cases were a scumtell this game... My problem with it (and with his play as a whole) is that he never did anything with it. Xzavier isn't pushing on me to improve his read, he isn't trying to convince anyone else to lynch me, he isn't looking at anyone else... he just dropped a lacklustre case and said "I'm done with scumhunting for the day, time to whinge about how everyone's being nasty to me and expecting me to play up to my meta". | ||
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In any case, he did do it and it hasn't "guaranteed" his lynch by any means, so I can't see how it's a bad scum move. For that matter, if it was going to guarantee his lynch, there's nothing about that which makes it a good move as town, either. The insult was noise to me - plausible from town and from scum, so it doesn't affect my read on him much at all. | ||
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My opinion on the StiMaDDict wagon: His play hasn't helped town at all so far, but the sheer volume (or lack of it) of his filter makes it difficult to establish a solid read on him. He could be scum, but he could also just be lazy/busy/trolly town, it's too early to tell. In any case, it is possible to establish a much better read on Xzavier. I'm far more confident on my scumread of him than on StiMaDDict. In addition, knowing Xzavier's alignment for certain tells us a LOT about what's happened today. Knowing StiMaDDict's alignment would tell us next to nothing. + Show Spoiler [An aside] + On June 25 2013 15:29 Xzavier wrote: Honestly not today. he did a really good jpb as town last game and gave some good insights. After going threw his filter it seems like he was forced into a defensive posting pattern due to pressure. he hasnt said much recently. Honestly i wouldnt mind lynching alakazam day 1. But ill giv him a chance to respond. Im really not liking chrom or auqa for their tunnelling me while ignoring logic and basing everything off of the fact that i havnt caught scum yet or made a case. On June 26 2013 03:50 Xzavier wrote: I dont get why aqua and chrome are voting somebody they know can be a good town. I havnt made huge cases yet, i havnt had time to. ill be active during night one if im still aliv. I would prefer to delay my lynch until day2. today id like a lynch on alakazam or aqua. idc which. ill probably choose between the two on my break fepending on the situation. IF I DO GET LYNCHED: everybody take a long hard look at aqua and chrom. and look at alakazam now he lurks and one of his few posts was saying im sheeping and doing no scumhunting this game until the guy im sheeping looks scummy. the godfather last game i was in said something almost identical to that. its a pretty big noob scum tell imo. alone it judt warrents serious investifagation. There's a pattern here of wanting not to lynch people based on their strong play in previous games... which has absolutely no relevance to this game. Could be a side-effect of him not having time to read this thread properly, but not wanting to commit to anything relevant to this game is characteristic of scum. | ||
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On June 26 2013 09:07 Xzavier wrote: Unfortunately. im going to dissapoint you by flipping green. I will say this: i firmly believe firmtofu is town. :D no really iv gotten that vibe. not all that strong. HZ flank also stfikes me as town. or hes playing the riskiest scum gambet. but all he would be gaining is a little towncred. so in pretty confident hes town. Heres list of people to look ibto: lonemeow. aqua. alakazam. Chromatically. Because they hav tunneled me and ignored logic and focused on tgeir silly probably purposely bad logic. Do you seriously not understand why we are voting for you? I think you're scum because you have contributed nothing original in terms of scumhunting to the thread, just poking weak fingers of suspicion at whoever else happens to be suspected by other people at the time. Explain to me what about this is "silly probably purposely bad logic". Martyring defences do not impress me. I don't expect you to make a good contribution, I expected you to make a contribution, and I just haven't seen one. | ||
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On June 26 2013 09:12 Xzavier wrote: Aqua. holy motherfucking shit your lucky i cant quote right now. I was saying that because your entire scumread is based on my previous game. Everybody read his filter and then that post please. On June 25 2013 14:19 Aquanim wrote: Like I said, I don't really know your meta and it's not relevant to my read. Are you serious? | ||
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On June 26 2013 09:19 Chromatically wrote: I also like the part where he said that I was letting you do all of the posting. If we were to do some voteswitch shennanies, I assume that you'd want to switch to Onegu? Not any more. I'd prefer to let him post for another day and improve my read on him, I can still believe his play from town or from scum at this point. If we absolutely had to switch, I'd say Alakaslam or StiMaDDict, but they would basically be policy lynches for me. I don't think this thread is going to progress much until Xzavier flips though, so I'm very much opposed to shenanigans at this point. Let's face it, if we don't lynch him today, we'll spend tomorrow deciding whether to lynch him too. I'd prefer to move on. | ||
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On June 26 2013 10:49 StiMaDDict wrote: Early in the game concerning NN, Aquanim favored NN claiming. His reasonings were: 1) NN is useless and do more harm to town than good if left unclaimed. + Show Spoiler + This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. 2) There is no drawback for town from NN claim. + Show Spoiler + I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles. 3) Mafia can't fake claim NN later on if they are caught visiting later in the game. + Show Spoiler + The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. I have no problem with proposing an idea and giving proper reasonings, however assuming certain things, contradicting logics, and planting a wrong idea to others, are things which I see as scum behaviors. First, he goes ahead and pronounce to the world that NN is useless. Furthermore, NN will harm town by confusing our blues. Sidestepping from the argument whether NN should claim or not, he plants an idea that NN is bad. It is town's goal to get as many advantages as possible from what we are given, not to eliminate certain role as useless right on. ...Please explain to me how town can make sure of getting any kind of advantage out of the Nosy Neighbour role. Second, he assumes that watcher or tracker will not be able to figure out who the mafia is. Think about it for a second. It is very rare that NN will visit the same target mafia will visit. Even if it is the case, it is two out of one. They can incorporate that information to their scumreads. Mafia has power roles besides their nightkill, and one of them could conceivably be used on just about anyone. If a mafia power role is seen visiting someone, I'd prefer for them to have to claim a town PR and justify all of their actions than to claim NN and say "Welp I have no idea who I visited". Third, why would it be a good thing if NN get shot for playing good town. It would be good for mafia of course. SOMEBODY is going to get shot for playing good town. I'd prefer to take the Nosy Neighbour out of the game entirely if possible. Fourth, this is the most bothering thing. Mafia can't fake claim NN if they are caught visiting. How would we find out mafia was visiting? Unless tracker/watcher claims (not a good thing) telling the town that they saw it. Basically At some point the tracker/watcher (if one exists) will either claim, or die (revealing their role) and (hopefully) leave breadcrumbs which will allow us to work out what they saw. Are you seriously saying that these roles will never be useful to the town? If so, what is the point of the roles at all? Also if there aren't more than 1 person visiting the victim, isn't it obvious that he is mafia regardless of what he says? Again, other mafia power roles. Also you're only considering the watcher. Incorporating his later posts.. + Show Spoiler + That's certainly a possibility, but I think it's more important that we deny scum the opportunity to fakeclaim Nosy Neighbour later. + Show Spoiler + It's more likely that town (with two possible track/watch roles) will be misled by an unclaimed Nosy Neighbour than scum. I'd prefer to know that anyone claiming it later is scum than to have scum know that one particular person does not have a PR. Scum generally prioritize shooting strong townies over blue-sniping anyway, and if a claimed Nosy Neighbour (who is thus likely town) plays a strong towngame they are FAR more likely to be shot. His main concerning is trying to catch mafia fake claiming later BUT why the fuck do would you say it out so loud and clear so even the mafia can hear all our plan. Aquanim's so called "plan" could have worked if only town knew about it and agree to it but, hello, we are playing this game where we don't know who the mafia is. If mafia know about the plan then they won't claim NN and by extension will HAVE to claim something else, which I would prefer (see above). This bit is little nip picking but here he sounds like he himself is mafia now. + Show Spoiler + Scum generally prioritize shooting strong townies over blue-sniping anyway, and if a claimed Nosy Neighbour (who is thus likely town) plays a strong towngame they are FAR more likely to be shot. This one sums up why he is contradicting himself. + Show Spoiler + What. Just... what. If somebody claims Nosy Neighbour day 1, they aren't counterclaimed, and they aren't scummy, there is NO REASON to lynch them. If somebody is a Nosy Neighbour, they are MUCH MORE LIKELY to harm the town if the town doesn't know they are (likely to be) the Nosy Neighbour. Making scum claim Nosy Neighbour day one (which would be brave) or not at all is the optimal play. + Show Spoiler + Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means. So we don't lynch whoever claim NN Day1 but we are not sure whether he is town or mafia and a scum wouldn't fake claim Day1 unless he is brave but again whoever claimed or fake claimed NN Day1 is shouldn't be lynched unless he is suspicious? Can someone explain this to me.. But in all seriousness, Aquanim is just trying to somehow magically make it sound logical and get NN to claim Day1. THAT really looks like scum play. Convincing town to do what he wants without making sense. The point is that we can't automatically assume a claimed Nosy Neighbour is town, but they are likely (not certain) to be town. Aquanim's case and voting on Chromatically was both strange and suspicious as well. 1) If it was semi-serious case, then it went on longer than I should have. 2) If it was a serious case, it was way too weak without enough evidence. 3) If it was a pressure vote, then it did not accomplish anything useful. I would even say that it came down too easily. + Show Spoiler + Regarding scum Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons. 1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me. On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote: Show nested quote + Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up. What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread? Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous. 2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own. ##Vote: Chromatically Rather than guessing what was his purpose, I will save time by referring to one of his post. + Show Spoiler + tl;dr I had uneasy feelings about you but I feel a lot better after reading this post. My vote was fundamentally to draw reactions from you (to clarify my read) and other people, and to start some meaningful discussion (I don't think anything is accomplished in a thread until somebody's thrown down a vote). Go find some scum. ##Unvote So if he was pressuring voting, why did he take it off? You were satisfied with this? + Show Spoiler + Aqua, are you scum? Both of these things are towntells. Explain to me the scum motivation in getting discussion rolling early day 1, which was OBVIOUSLY the reason that I pressured Spicy (and it worked). Sorry, if you thought that it was "ludicrous", but it doesn't make me scum and you know it. If you wanted to know about someone, you could just asked me. I'm not just going to randomly post reads if I'm not going to push for their lynch, but I'll definitely tell you what I think of someone or who my scumreads are. Why wouldn't you ask me for my scumreads if you wanted them? Probably because that's not actually what you want at all. Someone else asked me for scumreads, and I posted mine right below your post, but you haven't reacted to that at all. Does this point still stand even after I've posted my scumreads? Or did your opinion not change at all for some reason? You also said: On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote: This doesn't feel to me like the town Chromatic which I played with in Newbie XXXIII. Oh, this feels more like the scum Chromatic from XXXI? I am very, very uncomfortable with you, Aqua, because you are usually very town from your first post. This game, you've done a lot of shitting up the thread with stuff about claims and NNs. Furthermore, you didn't ask a scumread from Chromatically. He himself said that Aquanim should ask him if he wants to know. This seems as if Aquanim wanted, not something, but anything from Chromatically. And as soon as he gets a reply, comment oneliner to each of the paragraph, boom, vote comes off. Lastly, a small thing. "Go find some scum" would not be something I would say to someone I tried to pressure. The goal of my vote for Chromatically was to get a reaction from him (which I did, and I read him after that reaction and now as town) and to start people thinking seriously about a lynch, and I think I accomplished both of those goals. Next few posts are null. I will not try to make everything Aquanim said as my evidence. His response to hzflank's case was actually very town like, I will admit. He explain his action and nothing more. He did not try to defend Chromatically or anything. + Show Spoiler + I've tried to pull out the parts of hzflank's case which are primarily about me. Aquanim hopes that he can get a few town to agree that the NN should out themselves. Then his scumbuddies can also agree and the NN might claim, giving an advantage to the scum team. Since Hurricane did not get a hard time, Aquanim does not think that he will be lynched for being the first to make the suggestion. Aquanim is fairly sure that when the time comes he can rely on Hurricanes vote for NN to claim, so he really only needs two more town votes, which makes it worth a try. Has it even crossed your mind that I might think I'm right about the Nosy Neighbour? The rest of the case on me is primarily related to the nature of my case on Chromatically. Remember that when I made that case it was (by a long way) the first vote of the game - nobody had any significant cases at that time. I took my case more seriously (despite its flimsiness, which I admit) because in my experience a game of Mafia only starts to progress significantly when somebody has put down a vote and is pushing, in some way, for a lynch. The reason why I backed off my case so fast is because I'd previously had only vague feelings that Chromatically was scum, and his replying post felt a lot like aggrieved town to me. You can come up with convoluted reasons as to why I would ask people about their opinions on my case, or you can accept the simpler and correct explanation that I wanted to draw reactions and make other players express their ideas and thinking about the game, which is a strong tool for finding scum. But he does not explain what exactly he got out of his pressure vote. What about Chromatically's response was appropriate and what desired response did he get from other players. Next few posts.. (getting real tired of referring..) + Show Spoiler + On June 25 2013 11:00 Aquanim wrote: Is there anything in particular that makes you want to lynch Xzavier over Onegu? Their posting to date seems to be of a similar character to me, except that Onegu has been in the thread while interesting things have happened and still hasn't contributed much. On June 25 2013 11:44 Aquanim wrote: I'd prefer to see Xzavier's reply before I comment on either of these in detail. I don't see any reason to believe he's town from his posts so far, though. On June 25 2013 12:36 Aquanim wrote: I'm not interested in lynching any of those three today, if that's what you're asking. I can see the thought process of all three and I can easily see all of it coming from a town mindset, even if I don't agree with a lot of it. My current suspicions lie with Onegu and Xzavier, since they have posted a fair bit but actually said little to nothing of value. On June 25 2013 12:54 Aquanim wrote: I have to admit I've been having trouble understanding what Alakaslam has said so far... but I'm having difficulty seeing his thing about "spamming up the thread with bad bbcode -> scum" (link) coming from a scum player. It just feels too... enthusiastic. I get the overall impression that he is trying. I'd love to see more from him but I'd prefer to lynch Xzavier or Onegu at this point. (A quick note: LoneMeow did say pregame that he would be on vacation until the 27th, so I'm inclined not to lynch him today.) Maybe it's just me but it sounds to me as if he is trying to find a lynch target rather than an actual scum. He keeping going on about how Onegu and Xzavier haven't contributed to the scum that he himself hasn't really contributed either. All he did was pressure vote Chromatically for a little and backed off. Nothing more. Also he seems not concerned about lurkers at all (me, yeah..). Finally he puts his vote on Xzavier, because Xzavier made the first move. It is more of a response like, "uhh, I'm torn between Onegu and Xzavier. What?! You bit me, Xzavier? Alright, bring it!" (exaggerated, I know). Some more bullshitting after that.. It is an irony that his so called case on Xzavier apply to himself. Do you seriously think my case on Xzavier applies to me as well? I've been looking for more information the entire day while Xzavier went "oh woe is me". + Show Spoiler + 1) some useless talk in the first 12 hours 2) a vote on me with poor justification 3) some unconvincing defence 1) Aquanim really haven't said much after first 12 hours. 2) A vote on Xzavier with poor justification. 3) Aquanim's unconvincing defence. Conclusion: My vote is on Aquanim for now. To me he seems to be a frustrated little man who is trying to make it sound as other people are not making sense while he himself is not really making much sense. His NN policy definitely smell like mafia. Lastly, why are you trying to choose lynch targets rather than putting out a solid case on someone and back that up with evidence and analysis rather than just general "not contributing" or "not making sense." Quote and point towards exactly where is scum rather than tied down by lynch. Not contributing at all to looking for scum IS a scumtell. I've posted plenty of analysis and evidence and you're simply blind to it. Your case is piss-weak and mostly a repetition of what little has been said before. I'm not impressed. | ||
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Well, a double townie flip is distinctly less than good, but Xzavier being green still tells us a lot. Obviously I'm the only one who knows certainly that I am town, but from my perspective (seeing this as a double-townie-wagon kind of day) I doubt scum took a hugely active role on Xzavier's wagon or on mine. | ||
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On June 26 2013 12:50 FirmTofu wrote: I disagree. vigi should shoot the target most likely to flip scum, and that is most definitely Onegu at this point. P.S. I wouldn't mind Spicy either *wink wink* I think that a hypothetical Vigilante should probably NOT shoot tonight for the following reasons: 1) Statistically speaking, the vigilante is unlikely to die between now and the next night phase. They could get shot by scum, but they're unlikely to be lynched (since they can claim Vigilante). I expect that by night 2 our reads will be a lot stronger and a vigilante will be able to shoot scum with much higher confidence. 2) If the vigilante does shoot tonight and shoots a townie, then (after a scum NK) there will be 8 players remaining in the game, and probably 3 of them will be anti-town. This will be a MYLO situation on day 2 - that is, if we mislynch again, we almost certainly lose right away (barring lucky night actions), and even if we lynch scum we're faced with the same situation again. While obviously the goal is to lynch scum every day, I'd prefer not to have to lynch 3 scum in a row or instantly lose... Don't get me wrong, if StiMaDDict were to go mysteriously missing in the night I wouldn't grieve much, he's been bloody useless so far. However, I think it's worth waiting the extra day to be sure that he (or whoever else is being considered for a Vig shot) is actually scum, since the consequences of shooting a townie are so dire. Spicy, on the other hand, would be a poor vigilante shot IMO - he's posted enough that we would get more out of discussing lynching him than simply shooting him. | ||
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I played a large role in lynching a townie Day 1 and I acnowledge that some of you probably suspect me because of this. I believed he was the most likely player in the game to flip red, and I explained clearly why I believed that. If you suspect that I am scum, I suggest you read my filter and ask yourself two questions: 1) Does this person believe in the arguments they are presenting? 2) Is this person afraid of getting attention and being scrutinised? (These questions could profitably be applied to a read through the filter of any player in a game of Mafia, hence the third person. In fact, I would suggest that you do apply these questions to any of your reads.) If you have any questions I'm happy to answer them. I don't plan on posting anything huge until the night-action deadline (one hour before the daypost) since the next move is mostly scum's and I don't see anything to be gained by showing my reads before then. | ||
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On June 26 2013 13:31 Hurricane Sponge wrote: This post made me really sad. I have to completely disagree with you. There's been a lot of content, and every townie worth their salt has to have at least a couple names on their Scum List. The longer he waits to take the shot, the longer something can go wrong (NK, mislynch, etc.). I hate seeing you come out on the wrong end on two policy discussions, considering the first one got you nearly lynched and I was leaning toward believing you to be town. Sure, I have a couple of names on my scumlist, but I'm not willing to bet the farm on any of them just yet. Like I said, a Vigilante is unlikely to be mislynched since he can claim, and the odds of him being shot are relatively low. A Vigilante is likely to be alive in the next night phase, and being able to take a shot when there is more information to decide a target is a good thing. Also, a successful Vigilante shot at this point does not increase the number of mislynches before scum win. An unsuccessful Vigilante shot DOES decrease the number of mislynches before scum win. The town has a lot to lose through an unsuccessful Vigilante shot, and not as much to gain as might otherwise be the case. Obviously shooting scum is good, but a missed shot would be catastrophic. Perhaps instead of thinking I'm scum because I have a different opinion on Mafia theory to you, you should seriously consider my arguments? | ||
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On June 26 2013 13:50 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Whoa there. I never said I thought you were scum. Look at my filter, I never went after you because of differences of opinion on policy. (That feels like a pretty scum move to me personally; blowing something small and ultimately constructive way out of proportion.) Hopefully you'll return the favor and not attack me for thinking you're wrong on this point. Your reply here doesn't really affect my read of you, I just wanted to blow that out of the water before I had to spend another page of filter arguing with people about it :/ Do you see what I'm getting at about the Vigilante, though? | ||
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On June 26 2013 13:52 Hurricane Sponge wrote: EBWOP: And I would be willing to take the shot at one of my reads in particular if I were the Vigilante tonight. But that's either a difference in confidence, or just my personality to want to make 'Big Plays'. Your math is sound, and if the vig is not confident, he should not shoot. But if you've got the read, climb the ladder, kid. Make yourself famous. EBWOP: I guess I just got ninja-d. I'm satisfied with that answer, even if I don't 100% agree with your point of view. | ||
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On June 26 2013 14:10 Alakaslam wrote: ... Medic, I really hope you exist. You should know who to protect right now. If you think I'm asking for guard you are daft, but I assume you know who needs it. There is no medic in this setup (check the OP). There is the possibility for a Jailkeeper, which is similar. I'm not interested in discussing who they should or shouldn't target and I suggest nobody else discusses this either. This is because unlike the Vigilante a Jailkeeper can't do much harm to town and can do a lot of good, especially if scum have absolutely no idea who they are or who they're targeting. | ||
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On June 26 2013 14:42 hzflank wrote: ... My point was: Aqua is bulletproof tonight (from the scum NK). Even if they are both town and the scum want Onegu lynched day 2, they still will not NK Aqua tonight. I'm curious to know why you think this is so. | ||
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On June 26 2013 14:48 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Please, dear god no. Before anyone starts down this line of thinking, indulge me: Tell me how this gets us closer to finding scum? I asked the question to hear your reasons for thinking I won't be shot tonight, so as to get a better idea of how seriously you're analysing the game. I can see your point though about direct relevancy and the answer isn't vitally important to me at the moment, so I'm willing to let that question go. | ||
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On June 26 2013 16:11 Hurricane Sponge wrote: (Quick note, Spicy definitely defended fyfy from Tofu for WAY longer than any sane person would have, much less a mafia. Based on that encounter, Spicy is supertown. I didn't manage to quote the entire exchange in the broken case post, but if you don't believe me, it's pretty easy to find. Just control-F 'Hitler' and work your way backwards.) Could you explain to me how defending a townie is a "supertown" move? I see it as a pretty good way for a scum to be seen sincerely arguing something (because they know they're right about a townread), while not actually contributing to finding scum. A quick glance over Spicy's posts indicates to me that all he's saying is "fyfy isn't the scummiest person in the thread" which is a long way from a committment to fyfy being town (which could be inconvenient for scum later). Townies can defend other townies, but scum can do it too IMO. | ||
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On June 26 2013 16:30 Alakaslam wrote: Yeah, that was an ASSUMPTION alright. But what of this: as you are active, whose filter do you read at this time aqua? I'm not reading filters at the moment, I'm living the rest of my life and occasionally checking the thread to see if anything interesting pops up. | ||
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I'll reply to Onegu's above case later, don't have time at the moment. | ||
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Actually pressureing people who lurk at that point in time is one of the best things we can do because again makeing people interact is pro town allowing for lurkers at this point lets it be ok for scum to lurk also because there will be no pressure to post and give up information. So why defend lurking here? Again, if you actually read my post I am not defending lurking. I am saying that one can bring out more information in the thread by voting someone who is actually present than by voting a lurker, which is a statement of fact. If a lurker isn't actually available they can't post and so pressuring them accomplishes nothing. If somebody is in the thread, but saying nothing of value, THEN you pressure them. You cant use meta to prove your case. You even say it is only limited in usefullness but you will use it to prove your case, sorry it doesnt work that way. And it does dissapear just look at xzavier this game compared to last game he was town both games but played much different this game and he played worse this game. Useing something that has almost no usefullness in a newbie game to prove something is scummy. If you look at my post in context I was using MY previous meta to say that I can and will make cases when the need arises. This IS a valid use of my meta. I have made cases in the past; therefore, I am capable of making cases. It's a direct, logical proof. There is NO WAY in which this is wrong or scummy. And again, my read on Xzavier was NOT strongly dependent on his play in previous games. From my perspective, his play in this game deserved to be lynched on its own merits. I do keep having to repeat myself when I talk to you... This actually seems like you are covering for scum teammates who aren't playing calculated. I don't think there's any reason to believe I'm covering for anyone besides wild speculation on your part. The subject of this statement was Xzavier, who flipped town. Who would I even be covering for? He says this is a characteristic of scum but he contridicts himself here when he talks about past meta and useing it to prove his cases, because you can be useful in a previous game and not useful in this game but that doesnt automaticly make you scum. There's a difference between my argument and the one Xzavier was using. My argument: Xzavier was useful in a previous game and isn't being useful here, in a way that indicates scumminess. This is an indication that he is scum, so we should lynch him. Xzavier's argument: Spicy and I were useful in a previous game, you should leave us alive because I might be useful later. However, somebody's good play in a different game doesn't make them any townier in this one by extension. Xzavier's argument made absolutely no sense, whereas mine did. Why put the claim part in here, so you want the NN and Vig to claim? Blues claiming this early is the worst possible thing for town, scum already have more information than us why give them more? Also I really dont like directing blue actions especially in a noob game that is what coaches are for, also there is a great guide on teamliquid forum about vig role and who and when to shoot, we dont need to tell them who or when to shoot, have confidance they will figure out the right thing to do. 1) I have no idea why you're bringing up the NN in relation to this 2) If you'd actually read my post and understood it I'm saying that the vigilante claim is only in the case that he is about to be lynched. What makes you think I want the vigilante to claim now? I never said anything of the sort. 3) What about this post is more "directing" blue actions than the posts I was replying to? Directing blue actions is as a general rule bad I agree, but what I said does not benefit scum to know in any way and was important for the vigilante to know. It is important to consider the specific case rather than applying blanket rules. 4) I don't have any way to know that anyone else in this game has read any guides (as I recall the guide, it doesn't talk about this particular situation anyway) or is talking to their coach. So you are bleimeing people for not seriously scumhunting when you arent doing it yourself? Do you seriously expect me to be playing the game and reading into everyone 24/7? Are you bloody serious? I can't even fathom why you think this is noteworthy, unusual or scummy. I'm not sure if I kept these points in order, and I didn't reply to all of them, but frankly I'm bored of repeating myself. In short, Onegu's case on me is largely speculation as to possible (and in some cases, unlikely) scum motivations which some of the things I've said could conceivably have. Again, I don't see any reasons why what I've done (or what FirmTofu has done) are definitely scum-motivated. These cases read to me like Onegu is trying to pull something together to justify his predetermined scumreads, rather than determining his scumreads by the quality of the cases he can present (which is obviously an awful plan from a town perspective). I still don't know that he's scum for it (townies do the daftest things) but if he is scum I would be disgusted to lose to this play. I honestly don't think he understands my posts and arguments at all. Whether that's because he's incapable/lazy as town, or incapable/lazy/deliberately obtuse as scum, I'm not sure at this point. | ||
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On June 26 2013 23:14 hzflank wrote: @Aqua: Do you realize how many negative little posts you made about Onegu on day 1? If you are town then this is a good reason for someone to start a wagon on Onegu on day 2, because you were on the wrong wagon on day 1 and it looks like someone can easily get you on Onegu's wagon on day 2. Then you get outed on on the day 3 lylo and the scum get an easy win. If you are town, I would suggest you make yourself very sure of Onegu's guilt before you jump on his wagon, because I think that you are being played. Believe me, I'm not anyone's patsy. I read Xzavier's filter myself and came to my own conclusions. I'll do the same for any prospective wagon on Onegu. | ||
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(Honestly I doubt I'm going to die tonight, but between unknowable scum motivations, overzealous vigilantes and inscrutable Serial Killers one can never quite be sure...) If I die tonight, town should increase their scum-read on "X" and "Y" because of "Reasons" Spicydinosaur. See the section on him below. In case I die tonight, for the record, I believe "Z" and "B" to be very town. Chromatically and, to a lesser extent, Hurricane Sponge. Hurricane has picked up his play a lot since the lynch (which is a little odd) but both of them and I are too much on the same wavelength. In case I die tonight, give "L" some space to play: LoneMeow. I've liked what I've seen of his play so far, but there just hasn't been enough of it. Apparently he's been on vacation, but the fact that he hasn't felt the need to say it ingame, let alone use it as an excuse, is a good sign. @LoneMeow: You mostly weren't here day 1 and you've got some catching up to do in terms of proving your credentials as a townie. I appreciate there are some people <glares at StiMaDDict> who've done even less than you, but don't use that as an excuse. If I live through tonight, I look forward to speaking with you. If I die tonight have a good long think about your scumread on "V": Onegu. See the section on him below. If I die tonight, "κ" and "∅" are still basically policy lynches in my view: Alakaslam and StiMaDDict. Alakaslam's incessant martyring is really making me grind my teeth, but... fundamentally it's just another of those things I wish was scummy. He is posting some arguments and thinking about the thread a little, but is the analysis he's provided something scum could cook up? I still have no idea. StiMaDDict continues to do sweet fanny adams. We may just have to lynch him, or threaten to enough that he bloody well talks to us. If I die tonight I never got around to thoroughly reading " " and " ": FirmTofu and hzflank. I'm feeling townish on both of these two but if I'm wrong on my townreads I think it's probably these ones. On Spicydinosaur + Show Spoiler + The point was made early in the thread that Spicy was playing defensively. I would rather term his play as "reactive". Spicy's reply to this was as follows: On June 24 2013 12:39 Spicydinosaur wrote: I do this in all my games, check out Les Mafiafor a good example. Though i don't see how that is alignment indicative as no one wants to get lynched. I thought maybe I should actually go and read Les Mafia. Oh boy..... In Les Mafia, Spicydinosaur was a Parity Cop. I would characterise his play in the following way:
I strongly suggest that everybody read Les Mafia and get your own feeling for Spicy's play in that game. (Before anyone yells out that meta isn't a valid tool for analysis, Spicy provided this HIMSELF to justify his actions. Obviously, he thinks that it is a valid tool to analyse his play.) His argument with FirmTofu (you know the one) isn't particularly alignment-indicative to me. He is flinging a lot of shit at FirmTofu, but I can't say that he wouldn't do this as town too. This section of his filter could bear further analysis I feel. Spicy's reads so far (shortly summarised) are as follows:
I may have missed some reads but I don't think any of them were significant. In short, none of these reads make me think "town" and they all seem pretty convenient from a scummy perspective. Do I think Spicy's scum for not arguing harder for a switch away from Xzavier onto Hurricane? Not really, the thread sentiment was pretty strong against Xzavier at that point and it would take an awfully strong townie to face up to that. But it certainly isn't a towny indication, either. tl;dr I haven't found much of anything in Spicy's filter which makes me strongly think town, and unlike Onegu I'd expect there to be something if he was town. My gut says scum, but I want to look for more before drawing final conclusions. On Onegu + Show Spoiler + As far as I can tell the case on Onegu boils down to a few main points: 1) His 'apathy' to the day one wagons - generally indicative of scum not wanting to take responsibility. 2) The less-than-persuasive nature of his cases Is this a plausible interpretation of Onegu's actions if he's scum? I think it is. However, it is not the only possible interpretation. 1) Onegu did, and always has had, a scumread on me. I suspect it's mostly a gut read, since the reasons he's raising are not very strong. He was at one point the primary force behind my wagon, I'd say; at least he was arguing his point. However, at a certain point he jumped off my vote and went to Alakaslam instead. If he's scum, he could have convincingly stayed on my wagon for a great deal longer than he did - hell, he could have rode that wagon all the way to a mislynch without looking terminally scummy. He wasn't under a great deal of pressure to move his vote at that point, except from me - I have difficulty seeing the direct scum motivation for this move. Question: After switching vote to Alakaslam, do you think Onegu *could* have switched his vote back to me without looking absolutely awful, whatever his actual alignment? As such, was he actually as apathetic to the lynch as the final place his vote ended up might indicate? Onegu had already taken a fair bit of responsibility for his read on me. Furthermore, do you think Onegu was capable of effectively arguing against the strong prevailing thread sentiment towards the end of the day? I don't. 2) Just because he's wrong, and hasn't made accurate cases, is no guarantee that Onegu is scum. The question you have to ask yourself is "Is Onegu honestly searching the thread and trying to find scum?". Again, for me, this is a definite maybe. I still want to see Onegu play some more to convince myself whether he is sincere in his accusations. Other people in this game are reading filters and making high-level, rational conclusions from their overal understanding of the game, and that's a town indication for me. Scum prefer to nitpick because it's harder for them to be caught out in a lie or inconsistency, and is inherently less work. They're not interested in That being said, just because someone isn't effectively hunting for scum doesn't mean they aren't trying to hunt for scum. I think the most important thing in trying to read Onegu is to assess whether he is honestly and sincerely trying to find scum. tl;dr I think there is a reasonable explanation for Onegu's actions from both a town and a scum perspective. | ||
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Also, I think Spicy would have looked a LOT worse if he'd backflipped on his Xzavier read. In fact I can't see any reason why he'd vote Xzavier if he was scum. | ||
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Especially in a case like this where I don't think there's a single obvious target that scum really should shoot, trying to second-guess their reasons for choosing one plausible target over another is pretty heavy WIFOM. | ||
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On June 27 2013 10:40 Chromatically wrote: In theory, there's a somewhat plausible town explanation for every scum action. That doesn't mean that it's likely. I think that Meow has been trying to stay under the radar too much to by town (by completely sheeping town sentiment and leaving his lynch options open). I disagree with most of your reasoning on Spicy. First of all, I'm not looking at his meta. According to Xzav's meta, he was scum. I could make an argument that you're scum based on meta, because you're not as much of a town leader that you were in XXXIII. You could make a meta argument that I'm scum because I haven't used associations and I opened differently. Meta is not useful in newbie games. His stance on Xzav wasn't wishy-washy at all, it was that Xzav was town. He believed this enough to argue it against me, and logically stand his ground. Spicy might have looked worse if he had switched to Xzav, but if you read his reasoning, there's no reason to think that it's fake because it looks very genuine. I'm surprised that you see nothing townie in his filter. Look at the giant fight he had with Tofu, look at how he interacts with me about my cases and his cases. I think he's town. I have read it and I say again there is nothing about it I can't believe from a scum Spicy. Look at the giant fight he had with Tofu, and think to yourself: what would Spicy have done differently if he was scum? That argument was mostly just those two flinging mud at one another, with not a whole lot of rational thought. I don't see any reason to believe he's town over that - I think he played that exactly as scum Spicy would. Again, look at his discussion with you and think to yourself: what would Spicy have done differently if he was scum? Backing off his Xzavier read would have been SUICIDE considering how defiantly he'd defended it earlier. His argument to you that Xzavier was town basically consisted of "I said he was town before for those shitty reasons and I stand by them" and for some reason you're buying this. I don't see how or why you think defending a townie with bad reasons, and resisting all arguments to the contrary with "You're wrong" without any further justification is a town indication. At best it's null. You think he's genuine apparently - I don't. If you feel the need to ignore meta, then let me rephrase it: If player Y says that player X is one of his more likely speculative scumreads, very early in the game, and player X responds by throwing an ill-thought-out case at player Y mostly based on "he said I'm scum so he's scum" and other assorted rubbish without actually defending his own play, is that a scummy or towny thing to do? I think it's pretty obviously more likely from scum, regardless of Spicy's meta. | ||
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On June 27 2013 10:55 Hurricane Sponge wrote: And alakaslam, if I die, listen hard to Chrom. He won't screw with you. Seconded. Hell, I wouldn't say it only to Alakaslam. | ||
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That makes his reads 100% confirmed sincere. Guess I'll go back and read Spicy again and see if I can see what he was on about. | ||
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On June 27 2013 11:02 FirmTofu wrote: Okay we probably have a 4 mafia team, am I correct? No, there's almost certainly three. | ||
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On June 27 2013 11:06 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Spicy is town. This is a winnable game. It's super bad luck that our best role happened to be our most skilled player (easily drawing the mafia shot), but the game is close to being figured out. I guess I'll start the wagon, if no one objects. ##Vote: Onegu As far as I can tell, your entire town read on Spicy is based on Chromatically being the shot rather than you. As you said, he was in general the best shot. I don't see how this argument makes sense at all. hz and onegu are my worst reads. You're on your own for them until I can collect my thoughts better. I haven't breadcrumbed some secret message about them, so if I'm about to go down, you all have to sort out that mess on your own. I'm going to need an actual case from you on Onegu, including a reply to my comments about him here before I take your vote seriously. For that matter, I'd like to see your opinion on my comments on Spicy, too. If we start a "wagon of justice" on Onegu, ride it all day, and he flips town, we're pretty screwed. I'd like to at least discuss other options. | ||
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##Vote: StiMaDDict This is no more nor less than a pressure vote, which is something I don't normally do, but we badly, badly need StiMaDDict to get in here and play the game seriously. If nothing else, I refuse to let him win by playing like this if he's scum. I will continue to assess Onegu and Spicy (as well as other vague reads). Disturbing thought: If we mislynch and StiMaDDict (or any other townie) is modkilled we lose the game. Immediately. Don't edit any posts guys | ||
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On June 27 2013 11:15 FirmTofu wrote: Aqua, Chromatically and I have made the case for Onegu's lynch extremely clear. Please read our respective filters for more information. I wouldn't expect Hurricane to be the one to justify the wagon to you. You can just see that confirmed town flip Parity Cop Chromatically wanted him dead. Being confirmed town makes him sincere, not right. Every townie has believed cases from the bottom of their heart and been wrong. Hell, Chromatic has done it once this game already. I'm not going to lynch Onegu just on his say-so. As I've said, I can easily see Onegu as an newby and ineffective town player, as I suggested earlier. It's on you, Hurricane, and anyone else who votes Onegu to convince me that I'm wrong; I've done my work on Onegu and come to my own conclusions, it's not my job to convince myself that you're right. | ||
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Show me things Onegu has done that there is no reasonable town explanation for and I'll take them into consideration. | ||
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On June 27 2013 11:31 hzflank wrote: EBWOP Sorry my bad, that was Aqua who thought that Lone and Spicy were scummier than Onegu. Still wrong. My read on LoneMeow is null. | ||
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I will continue to examine his play myself, and if my view of his play should change my attitude to his wagon will change also. For now I'd like to discuss Spicy and StiMaDDict, as well as Onegu, as potential lynches today. To date the only person who has responded to my points about Spicy was Chromatically. I'd like to hear some other opinions. | ||
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On June 27 2013 13:33 hzflank wrote: I agree with what you say about him playing defensively. I also got a complete null read from his argument with FirmTofu. Regarding voting I think Spicy is in a similar place to Onegu. I don't really have anything else to say on it. Most of your individual points are valid, but reading it all made me feel apathetic towards Spicy, rather than scream Scum at me. This is exactly where I'm at with Spicy. If I was confident he was scum my vote would be on him rather than StiMaDDict. My case was intended to show why the reasons that other people thought (and I previously thought) Spicy was town are in fact not particularly good reasons for thinking that. Hurricane's reason for thinking that Spicy is certain town (because Hurricane wasn't shot) doesn't even make any sense. I think Spicy is worth at least as much consideration for a lynch today as Onegu. Elaboration of my read (or lack thereof) on Onegu: Sidestepping the two main wagons of the day is a generally scummy thing to do. However, the question you must ask yourself is why is it indicative that this person has a scum mentality? The reason, as far as I'm concerned, is that it means you don't have to commit as hard to your reads (which can be used against you later) and you don't have to pretend to analyse the thread. (There are probably other factors and I've generalised a lot here, but I hope you can see what I'm getting at - it's important to look at WHY a "scummy" thing is actually indicative of a scum mentality, and check in each case whether the "why" applies. If anybody has another fundamental reason why dodging the wagons is scum-indicative, I invite you to share it and talk about whether or not you think it applies.) Onegu indeed sidestepped both my wagon and Xzavier's in the end. However, he has been analysing the thread (see his cases on me, Alakaslam and FirmTofu). I don't think I've agreed with any of his analysis, but that isn't inherently important. The only relevant question is "Did Onegu believe in the cases he raised?" and my gut feeling is yes. Onegu has certainly not been shy about posting his reads and showing his reasoning, no matter how questionable I or anyone else may think his reasons are. Am I certain Onegu's sincere? No. But I find it (slightly) easier to believe than the alternative, based pretty much solely on my gut feeling. I could try to justify this (and I will if somebody asks), but I think it really does just come down to my personal opinion - you will have to make your own judgement, even if I tell you where to look. Every time I can remember that somebody has hardcore tunneled me in a game of Mafia, they have been town. Perhaps I'm wrong, and perhaps you can convince me of that - but I'm getting bad feelings from an Onegu wagon. | ||
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PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT If you have been roleblocked (you will have been notified by a PM from the host), claim in the thread in your next post that you have been roleblocked. This is NOT a claim that you have a role to be blocked. A player with no powers may also be blocked. This information is far more valuable to the town than it is to mafia when revealed. If you doubt this, check any recent normal game with roleblock/jailkeeper roles. (It just occured to me that no-one has said this yet, and perhaps there's someone who doesn't know.) | ||
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I would like to see Onegu's reply before making my comments. | ||
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Im not sure i follow when you say "My feeling is that in Les Mafia Spicy is giving reasons for his suspicions, whereas in this game he is giving justifications for his vote." I gave my reasons for suspecting tofu early on and there was no vote there. Also can you explain the difference between reasons and justifications the way you use it? I meant to make that distinction more clear, but ran out of time before the deadline and then forgot about it. My impression of your play in this game is that you're not looking for scum (and finding reasons why they are scum), you're finding somebody you can justify putting your vote on. Town look for scum, scum look for a convincing place to put their vote and thus look like they're looking for scum. I can't believe an intelligent townie could seriously believe that Hurricane was more likely to flip scum than Xzavier at the end of day 1. I also completely disagree with how you claim i defended myself in les mafia. Barely batting an eye? Here is what i wrote in response to someone voting me: "If you want to bring my meta into this then fine. the newbie game reads were a hell of a lot easier. My analysis has been the same in both games, posting analysis of players. Simply because some of my earlier analysis didnt come up scum doesnt mean that my play is different. Take my recent read on you that you haven't responded to. Called you scum for your consolidation and rampant vote changing. Your tunneling of me this late goes against everything you said about consolidation in your earlier posts. You are scum and your attempt to get a late day bandwagoning going is evident of it. " The rest of it is just explaining my fucked up post. (quick aside for anyone who didnt want to read les mafia, i was voted for posting a horrible case on one person but contained posts of another). That's exactly it. People voted for you in Les Mafia. FirmTofu didn't vote for you at the start of the game and yet you jumped all over him with an approach I can only describe as mud-slinging, making the conversation about him rather than about you. On the other hand, in Les Mafia you defended yourself rationally, even though the accusations levelled against you were much more serious. Reacting reasonably to four votes on you that have been made for an objectively valid reason is an entirely reasonable thing to do - reacting violently to a single person saying they are moderately suspicious of you, only a few hours into the game, is not. You also now think my initial case on tofu is "trash" and yet earlier you stated this: On June 25 2013 12:36 Aquanim wrote: Show nested quote + I'm not interested in lynching any of those three today, if that's what you're asking. I can see the thought process of all three and I can easily see all of it coming from a town mindset, even if I don't agree with a lot of it. Clear contradiction. I thought it was trash then too, I just thought it was towny. (Townies are not always right - hell townies often don't even make sense.) I reread it more thoroughly during the night, and I changed my mind. Townie's prerogative. Laslty, my read on hurricane was bad because he was afk and posted nothing but fluff? How does that make it ok? Well, if I'd looked at Hurricane's filter at that time I would have thought "This guy hasn't been here to post since the initial phase where most everything is fluff... I'll see what he posts when he comes back and there's actual material in the thread for him to work with before I commit to a read on him". You, on the other hand, apparently thought that case was good enough to stick with up until the lynch (even though he'd posted considerably more content since then, which pretty much nullified your original case). | ||
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On June 27 2013 23:52 FirmTofu wrote: A few things to be wary of: Onegu is probably shitting his pants right now along with his scum team, who are currently trying to come up with the best plan that minimizes their losses. You need to hold Onegu accountable not only for his response, but also the time he takes to formulate one. The longer he takes, the more indicative it is that he is scum. I apologize for all the grammatical and spelling mistakes in my case against Onegu btw, I was really tired when I wrote that. I don't think you should ever try to judge someone's alignment based on how slowly they reply to you (within reason, of course <stares at StiMaDDict again>). You never know whether real life interfered, or they just needed to think about it for a while, or anything else. | ||
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@Onegu: If you are in fact town, the way to convince us of that is to post and to show you are seriously analysing the game and looking for scum. | ||
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On June 28 2013 08:32 FirmTofu wrote: I believe his "strongest town read" is hzflank or Spicy By the process of elimination, it cannot be Alakaslam, me, or Aquanim because he has stated his suspicions for all of us. It cannot be LoneMeow or StiM because a lurker cannot be rational person's strongest town read. It probably isn't Hurricane because Hurricane is currently pushing a strong case against him. The only players left are Spicy and hzflank. I'd really prefer not to speculate about it. | ||
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Here it is. + Show Spoiler + I'll go through FirmTofu's case point by point. + Show Spoiler + On June 27 2013 20:43 FirmTofu wrote: FirmTofu's Case Against Onegu Point #1: Onegu seems to be looking for reasons to vote me that he doesn't necessarily even agree with. Example: Onegu initially states that meta is bad and you should "stop trying to meta peoples play." Then, when he wants to make a case against me, he uses my failure to use meta as an excuse to call me scummy. It seems like Onegu has differing views on meta depending on when it is convenient for him to think one way or another. Inconsistency can be a sign that a player is not seriously analysing the thread, which reflects a scum-mentality. However, I don't think Onegu is being inconsistent with his views on meta here. The first of Onegu's posts quoted here is saying that Onegu thinks that we should not use meta. This post isn't particularly useful but not all posts are. The second of Onegu's posts is observing that FirmTofu's post (which also states that we shouldn't use meta) does not contain a particularly good reason for not using meta. And to be honest, I partially agree with him. While it's a legitimate view for FirmTofu to hold, just because something is "boring" doesn't mean it's a bad idea. Onegu's post does NOT say that he disagrees with FirmTofu about whether meta should be used, only with the argument which FirmTofu used. Summary: I see no contradiction here. In fact, observing that someone whose opinion you agree with has nevertheless justified that opinion poorly indicates a reasonable level of analysis to me. + Show Spoiler + Point #2: Onegu switched his vote from Aquanim to Alakaslam rather arbitrarily, suggesting that he knew Aquanim would flip town and everyone would blame him, so he moved to his "second best" scum read. Example: Here we see Onegu buiding a case for Aquanim and establishing that he believes Alakaslam is "noob scum" and is a lower priority lynch to Aquanim. I have bolded all relevant areas. Then, as soon as he is pressured, he backs away from Aquanim. CONTEXT! At this point, removing his vote caused the tiebreak scenario between the lynch of Xzavier and the lynch of Aquanim to be lifted. In essence, this move sealed Xzavier's fate and saved Aquanim from being a probable lynch. This ensured that Onegu would not look suspicious post-lynch because he wouldn't be responsible for the death of a townie. The explanation that Onegu jumped from voting me to Alakaslam because he didn't want to take responsibility for my lynch is plausible. However, I also think it's plausible that Onegu, as town, reassessed his case on me and found that it was weaker than his case on Alakaslam, which is indeed how he justified it: On June 25 2013 18:08 Onegu wrote: ... Ok fine I will admit my case on you with my own findings isnt that strong. And looking at Alakaslam again he is my stronger case. ##: UNVOTE ##: VOTE ALAKASLAM ... But if we lynch Xzavier and he flips town we will be lynching you day 2. I think this is an entirely reasonable town reaction. He realises that the case he's not voting is the stronger one for as long as he doesn't know Xzavier's alignment, and so he switches to it. Obviously, knowing the alignment of Xzavier could change his reads - a lot of the play in day 1 centred around Xzavier, knowing his alignment is obviously going to give you a lot of context for your reads. Making decisions conditional on which way somebody flips isn't something which I think would come naturally to scum. + Show Spoiler + Point #3: Onegu was wanted to lynch Aquanim if Xzavier flipped town, but post-lynch, he didn't even pursue Aquanim at all. (See last quoted post) The most critical part of this post lies in the last sentence. What changed? Why did he give up on Aquanim? Nearly all of Onegu's case for me relies on events that happened prior to this post. There is absolutely no reason for him to suddenly switch his vbest scum read from Aquanim to me. A townie in this position after Xzavier's flip as town would pursue Aquanim to no end. The only explanation here is that Onegu is scum, and he sees me as a greater threat to his mafia team than Aquanim. I distinctly recall him making a case on me after the lynch. He chose to pursue you as his primary target, but he still has me on his scum list. I don't see how partially changing his mind makes Onegu scum. In fact, flexibility in changing one's reads as you get more information about your targets is a clear town sign. + Show Spoiler + Point #4: Onegu declared his apathy to both the Xzavier and Aquanim lynches shortly thereafter with no developments other than his case for Alakaslam. Note: He reiterates that if Xzavier flips town, Onegu's vote will go to Aquanim. This is further evidence for Point #2 and is also indicative that Onegu still has not shifted his suspicions onto me. He says he has scum reads on Alakaslam and Aqua, but doesn't vote for Aqua who was the only one likely to be lynched that day. The scum reasoning behind this is that he doesn't want to be suspected post lynch(Point #2). A townie would be willing to push their second best scum read(Aquanim) if he was the only scum read that was even on the table. Only scum would try and pretend as though Alakaslam was a viable option. Elaboration on why apathy is a problem: Onegu's apathy towards the lynch on day 1 is a clear scum tell. An honest townie, in his position, would never have switched from voting Aquanim to voting Alakaslam. Even if the townie thought Aquanim was a sub-optimal lynch, he would have been willing to pursue it was the lynch that was even remotely likely to go through that he agreed with. However, scum Onegu was obviously apathetic about the lynch because he knew that, no matter what, a townie would die. Therefore, to clear himself of blame, he quickly got off the wagon he was currently on and allowed the other wagon to take precedence. This way, no one could accuse him of being the reason for getting a townie killed. It was a brilliant move, until of course, he was honest about his true intentions. This is a plausible reason why a scum Onegu would do this. However, there is a reasonable town explanation, and it's quite simple. Onegu thought that Alakaslam was more likely to flip scum than either myself or Xzavier. I admit that Onegu did not raise hell to convince other players to switch to Alakaslam. However, he did in fact make a case on Alakaslam, so it's not like he didn't apply any effort at all to convincing us. This raises the question of "Could Onegu have reasonably believed that Alakaslam was more likely to be scum?". I believe the answer to this question is yes. His case on Alakaslam is basically "Alakaslam has posted nothing of worth when there was plenty of worth that could have been said", which is pretty much all you can actually say about Alakaslam. This is a pretty decent reason for thinking Alakaslam was scum, as opposed to his case on me (which never made any sense). Actually saying that "I don't care who is killed" is a pretty impressive slip of the tongue. However, I don't think it's entirely implausible that a town Onegu could be largely apathetic as to which of his null-to-scum reads is lynched, given that he doesn't think his main read Alakaslam is going to get lynched. He tried to convince the thread to lynch his main suspect, Alakaslam - when that failed, he was justifiably not hugely invested in the lynch. Towards the end of the day, the Xzavier wagon was clearly leading. (In fact, the only two votes on me at the end IIRC were Xzavier himself and StiMaDDict.) Jumping on my wagon again would have been absolutely futile, and since he didn't think that Xzavier was scum obviously he wouldn't jump on that one either. Staying on Alakaslam was a REASONABLE thing for a townie to do in Onegu's position. Sure, it would have been better to argue even more for an Alakaslam lynch, but not everybody has the backbone to stare down the rest of the thread over a read nobody else shares. + Show Spoiler + Point #5: Onegu's entire case against me is a scummy OMGUS that only serves to maim my authority and credibility. The only thing that happened right after post-lynch was that Chromatically and I drafted up separate cases against Onegu. Nothing else changed. There was absolutely no reason for Onegu to change his scum read of Aquanim to suddenly attack me. Here is his case for reference. + Show Spoiler + On June 26 2013 20:58 Onegu wrote: Going to make a case on FirmTofu also as looking over his filter looks scummy also. His first post is nothing, it doesnt promote a good town atmosphere nor does it get anyone to defend themself as the cases are just BS. Again this is jsut posting about a discussion we were haveing and posting something on it but not actually giving a good reason. Sorry it is boring is not a legitimate reason to do or not do something in mafia. As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim. Such a wierd choice on who to vote but more on this in a moment. But it was pure spam, when you say it was something fun that means it is spam. But why try to get someone who hasnt talked at all to try to talk? Someone who you know has posted and is most likely to post again is a much better choice to pressure, unless of course you dont want them to have to talk more... So you agree with almost everything? You agree with almost everything but its just plausable and you have town reads on both of them. What a quick backpeddle there, why so fast? But there was a big differance and in no way were they interchangeable as all you have to do is look at the ammount of posts they have had. It makes a HUGE difference that one line means you know someone has posted and more likely to post again, while you do not know if the other will post or not. Why do you keep on there is no difference when there is one and spicy wasnt the only one to point it out, with fyfy fliping green this becomes much more relevant. Why post this all it is is fluff and takes up space. So you are happy at first with my statement what changed? So you blast me for saying I have a better read on alakaslam but not voteing him then when I do vote him I am scum, but you didnt think the xzavier lynch didnt have the highest chance to flip scum? And me saying before the lynch I am ok with either lynch because the xzavier lynch gives town the most information, but when you say the same thing after the lynch that is perfectly ok? REALLY? Directing blue roles is bad and wrong dont do it. This is bullying you say if you dont vote how I want you to then you are scum and I will come after you also. If he doesnt make the choice you want him to then there will be consequences is the definition of bullying. Where are these people and I would ask them to look at your filter again and go ahead and say you are one of the most pro-town people in this game. You have tunneled spicy, xzavier and me and havent done much else other than bully alakaslam andmpost fluff. And when Xzavier flips town you say you didnt even expect him to flip scum. Nearly all of his points refer to supposed "scum-tells" that occurred pre-lynch. If he thought those were scum-tells, why didn't he bother to bring it up when it actually mattered? Why did he conveniently start to think I was scummy RIGHT AFTER I accused him? The only explanation for this sort of behavior is that he doesn't actually think I am scummy, he is just looking for reasons to convince others to think I am scummy so no one will vote him. Are you seriously trying to tell me that there is something scummy about rereading day 1, with the retrospective knowledge of who got lynched, and drawing new conclusions based on that? I guess that makes me scum then... and you... and everybody else in this game (with the possible exception of StiMaDDict). I'd also like to tell a little story here. Imagine you are a townie named Q, making scumreads and generally playing the game. Suddenly one of your scumreads says to someone else: "Vote Q or I'll assume that you're both scum and lynch you!". What is your reaction to that going to be? While I personally don't think that that statement makes FirmTofu scum (if only because it would be way, way too stupid) I'm not even suprised that Onegu went apeshit over it. I probably would have, in his position. Summary: It's a nice little case FirmTofu has built up here, I believe that he believes it, and I think he's townier as a result... but he's wrong. None of this makes Onegu scum, and a fair bit of it in fact makes me think that Onegu is town. Why Onegu is town He's looking for scum. No, really... In this game, Onegu is suspicious of a lot of people, I might even say paranoid. Most of his posts are talking directly about why another player is scum. Staying on-point with this approach to the game strongly indicates to me that his goal in the game is in fact to find scum. + Show Spoiler [meta] + In the last game, where he was scum, Onegu was MUCH less direct about his suspicions and his posts generally contained a lot more fluff. In my view his suspicions this game have been both consistent and flexible, both marks of a town-y thought process directing them. Consistent in that he hasn't suddenly changed his mind about anything without justifying it, and Flexible in that he has in fact changed his mind when new evidence presents itself. Looking at a player's overall attitude to the game is in my mind a far more reliable approach than focusing on individual scummy things they did. (Learned through painful past experience of mislynching townies who made dire mistakes.) | ||
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On June 28 2013 08:59 Spicydinosaur wrote: Neutral/scummy. His chaotic play feels very deliberate which doesnt tell me anything about alignment. He voted for a townie so that's why its in the scum direction. His read on onegu is hard to understand, at least for me as it seems he sheeps other's opinions, dead chrom and tofu. Haven't seen his own "case" yet. He's at least posting more than stim did, though with about 95% more fluff. Assuming that we conclude Onegu's claim is legit, who do you want to lynch today? | ||
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Why I've been voting StiMaDDict It was a convenient place to start a counter-wagon to Onegu. If Onegu's was the only wagon, I was concerned that the town would tunnel him, he'd flip town, and we would accomplish less than nothing today. However, if Onegu was scum, I didn't want to start a strong wagon which would draw townie votes off him. Ideally, scum would jump on the StiMaDDict wagon to draw the lynch away from their scumbuddy, and it would be so obvious that they would be catchable. (Thanks to hzflank for making the StiMaDDict wagon look convincing, btw.) The StiMaDDict wagon was serious enough to look convincing, but not serious enough to make today a one-wagon day on him. Do I think StiMaDDict is scum? I'm leaning towards it, but only by process of elimination. I'd prefer to lynch someone on whom I have a better read than that. Who do I think is a better lynch? Alakaslam. There's honestly not much to say about his filter since it's largely fluff and a lot of it has been said, but I'll sum it up here. Filter is almost entirely fluff + Show Spoiler + I'm not going to prove this one to you. Read his filter for yourself, it's pretty damn obvious Very concerned with what the town thinks of him + Show Spoiler + I am thinking of how I can establish my innocence. Everyone should be doing this. The more town we confirm, the better off we are finding/accurately reading scum. I also think that I've messed that up, since I actually would like FirmTofu's case against me. I kind of went all Blazinghand, and I'm just not him. + Show Spoiler + So for establishing MY innocence: I haven't been the best town so far, I posted mostly defensive fluff, and the above in the spoiler. HOWEVER, as making the thread difficult to read is not the best thing for town, I put it in there. You are not obligated to read the contents of the spoiler! But feel free to. I haven't posted much, posting from the table is kind of rude just as is texting from the table. But I managed, and that was probably unwise. I plan to read the thread, and give a case for people IN SPOILERS with a TL;DR above each one so as to keep stuff organized. Remember, scum wants: Confusion, lack of info, and difficulty to read thread. So town: Keep it organized, I will be doing the same, and see you in a couple minutes. Let's go find some scum! I do agree that much of what I have posted has been odd. You know where a lot of that comes from? + Show Spoiler + Which I appreciate but late at night it was killing my confidence. Don't worry about doing that further though. I have nothing to hide. Show me some substantial posts so far! I don't want to drop a deuce on everyone but what HAS been very useful so far? Chromatically has been attacked, hasn't really defended himself yet, but others have defended for him. Odd. Then he came in and kind of defended himself. I have attacked FirmTofu, mostly out of bitterness due to the bbcode. Aqua has been attacked, almost for attacking chromatically and for the same reason you have been and I have been- "inactivity". Note I am bound to be bad town this first game. I have learned much from you my good man. If it helps, you guide my vote until you look scummy. Well Define: quality. Senseless accusations? No, there are people who have done that that there is suspicion toward. I don't see how that helps. Accusing, from me, is going to require more evidence. I'm sorry, I just don't read people very well (yet), and I don't want to do what I have been doing. Well then, does aiding town count? "Shouldn't town be accusing and whatnot because it establishes innocence and is how you scumhunt etc etc" paraphrase. "Oh meta is allowed? People have decided they want meta? Here you go, last three newbie games, top of page 13!" "Well shit* guys I posted nothing but fluff, really sorry about that" See the above Venn diagram, read my filter, then put it in context reading the thread. It's not scum play it's just try hard bad town. Give me a day/ night cycle and it won't be so bad, more info and I might find one. He's voting because it was requested, not because FirmTofu is a serious scumread of his? What the hell? See y'all around, when I was looking scummy to myself I knew OMGIS, it wassa comin! Good luck my friends, you will need it. DON'T not lynch me just because I had a hard day, if I really look scummy Lynch me dammit! Towns must know how to COMMIT! >: ) Now I see how scummy ^^ looks (I mean my post.) Feh! What am I worried about. My Lynch would give town a lot of confusion though. Not good. I get a strong feeling Mafia are actually pretty active this game, kind of puppetmastering and doing a good job of it. They've got me so far XD No case for the above? Well, it's because of my general feeling based on the whole thread. A lot of people accusing with weak cases or, like me, just avoiding accusing because they're worried their case will be weak (which is in itself scummy in a way- that worry). You know? Really, I'm just very new and very wishy washy. Feel free to ask me stuff, I'll see it on my spare time and I'll try to answer. A lot of stuff I've done I have done to try to be a sideline resource to town. I haven't the best of skill at reading people anywhere, but one thing I can do is tell the truth and navigate TL. So ask me, try to entrap me and make me guilty worse than I am. I need some Town confirmation if I'm going to be useful, and that is the only way I can think of to confirm myself town. Otherwise, please just lynch me. + Show Spoiler + If everyone thinks I'm scum, I'm just dead-weight because nobody believes me. So even scumreads from me become spam, and useless fluff. Has anyone actually considered the motivation behind my filter? I know why I look scummy, heck you guys convinced me (lol). So, I ask you. How do I fix that? What is at my disposal to help town? I thought towniness was any effort to aid town, not YOU MUST SCUMREAD THAT IS ONLY AID TO TOWN AND NO SHEEPING BRO, IF YOU DON'T KNOW HOW TO USE YOUR VOTE AT ANY GIVEN TIME BECAUSE YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT + Show Spoiler +. If that is actually true, then expect me to suck in the future. I will be a quick lynch. On June 26 2013 12:36 Alakaslam wrote: Yeah, maybe, check my late filter. Depends on cases against him. I just gave my vote to a mislynch right after reading town off his filter. Do not expect voting confidence from me yet! Going to homework, I need it! :p. Potato may = paranoia. Possibly acute. Along with this homework, I am going to read the town section of the thread I linked again. If you make cases against me folks don't do it based on the "lurking" I'm about to do for obvious reasons. -_- In particular, he's planting the idea that he has no confidence in his votes. Town has no reason to do this. There's yet more of this (I didn't believe anyone could martyr this hard) but if you want to see it you can read his filter. I'm well and truly bored of quoting this stuff by now. Alakaslam seems to constantly think he's under pressure when he's barely been mentioned so far... I gave him a free pass for a while because I figured he was a newb, but enough is enough. Isn't looking for scum + Show Spoiler + Day One: Voted for me with no explanation, got called on it and quickly removed his vote. Eventually moved his vote to Xzavier with the justification that he'd read my filter now and seen my argument that Xzavier was scum. ... Let me repeat that out here, this one is important. On day 1 Alakaslam voted for me, at that time one of the leading wagons, WITHOUT having seen anything I had to say about Xzavier. This is not somebody who is putting any effort into finding scum. + Show Spoiler + Night 1: Tries to "vote" Onegu... On June 26 2013 14:38 Alakaslam wrote: Vote: Onegu. EZ PZ but "revenge is not sweet" if I can really do this. I really felt he was a helpful fellow... can we vote in advance at night? If not then please understand the intent firm, I believe you. If so bolding upon reply from mods, and mods please consider it a vote. I want to establish myself town and I understand tofu's case, I am NOT taking this lightly. Like I said I don't like mislynch in a mini like this! and then backs out of this for no apparent reason. On June 26 2013 16:11 Alakaslam wrote: Same, but the counter he made at you early game is bs. Blue claiming is so stupid, I haven't seen it help when I read the epic threads of the bamcis. I see why people didn't like him early. He attacked your attack on him with "your clarifying common sense IN A NEWBIE GAME is just spam. Spicy! But yeah I think he's town. Will keep reading to make sure. (He's not specific but I'm pretty sure this is a reply to FirmTofu above, who adressed a question to him about Alakaslam.) Day 2: Says his primary suspect is StiMaDDict (the easiest target in the game), doesn't vote for him, and disappears. This is the same guy who put a vote on me without even having looked briefly at my filter. If he's that free with his vote on an ongoing wagon, why doesn't he want to be seen starting a wagon on his primary suspect? Alakaslam is constantly sheeping the prevailing opinions in the thread with absolutely no input of his own. A few other things + Show Spoiler + On June 26 2013 10:19 Alakaslam wrote: UM, Maybe he is a blue role. If so though, careful with that hz. But yeah good point Chromatically, why would you post this at all hz? If I was scummy before for sheeping Onegu, what is this? I see no possible town motivation for saying this. Basically the only defence possible of Alakaslam is that he's too scummy to be scum, and that's a ridiculous argument. I'm still thinking about other possible lynches for today but my vote is on Alakaslam. ##Unvote ##Vote: Alakaslam | ||
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I can't see any indication in his filter that Alakaslam is thinking about this game like a townie. | ||
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@Alakaslam: Are you claiming that you have a power role? I don't understand what you're saying here. | ||
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You have said you don't want to reveal who you saw visiting Alakaslam because you don't want to out a town power role, and you believe that the person you saw is town. The possible town power roles in this game are: Veteran - doesn't visit anybody Vigilante - Alakaslam is not dead so it can't be this Parity Cop - is already dead, there won't be more than one Jailkeeper - If somebody in fact JK'd Alakaslam they should claim and he will be confirmed scum Tracker - If there was another tracker in the game they would counterclaim Onegu Watcher - there won't be more than one Therefore, there are NO town power roles which you can expose by claiming who you saw visit Alakaslam. The only possibilities are Nosy Neighbour or a scum power role. I see no possible downside to you claiming who you saw visit Alakaslam. I would like for you to do this. | ||
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On June 28 2013 15:51 hzflank wrote: @Aqua, I got some mechanics confirmation from the host. He could of seen a Tracker or a Jailkeeper. This is true. However, if he did see a Tracker or a Jailkeeper, whoever that is should claim as they will 100% prove that Alakaslam is scum. Revealing a power role is definitely worth a 100% confirmed lynch. | ||
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On June 28 2013 15:54 FirmTofu wrote: Not true. The host has stated that there can be more than one of the same blue role. Yes, the hosts do state that. There never is in a normal mini. EVER. Trust me on this. Even if there is, I think that a parity cop check on Alakaslam is conceivably worth the claim at this point. | ||
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On June 28 2013 15:57 Alakaslam wrote: I would kiss your feet for this aqua if not for the mod note that said there can be as many of anything. On June 28 2013 15:56 Aquanim wrote: ... Yes, the hosts do state that. There never is in a normal mini. EVER. Trust me on this. ... | ||
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On June 28 2013 16:01 FirmTofu wrote: I agree that the claim is worth it, but the fact remains that you are deliberately lying. If I recall correctly, I was crucified for this a few pages back. Just saying. (I don't actually think it's bad to lie as town) I am not lying. I have never seen a doubled power-role in a normal mini game, I think that they are a fundamentally bad idea, the play of experienced players in every normal mini I have ever seen implicitly assumes there is only one, I have seen a host laughed at in the Obs QT for saying to the newbies that there might be more than one of a role... I can tell you for a fact that there is at most one of any power role in this game. | ||
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On June 28 2013 15:55 hzflank wrote: If you are JK do NOT claim! Talk to a coach if you need to. I do not want to see a Jailkeeper claim right now. Please! I agree that a Jailkeeper should talk to their coach. Make sure you explain the entire situation! | ||
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On June 28 2013 16:26 FirmTofu wrote: Aquanim, can you please unvote? At least temporarily? No, for the same reason I can't imagine you'll unvote Onegu: because we're lynching one or the other and I think I'm voting for scum. | ||
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On June 28 2013 16:54 Hurricane Sponge wrote: What a shit storm. I'm seeing my name throw around a lot. Trying to come up with a scenario where both Onegu and Alakaslam are Town (which is my belief). Can someone save me some time and double-check my work by stating in the simplest way the conflict between Onegu's and Alakaslam's claims? Onegu has claimed that he is the Watcher and that he watched Alakaslam. Alakaslam has claimed that he is the Tracker, and that he tracked Onegu to Hurricane (you). If Onegu visited Alakaslam, Alakaslam is lying about tracking Onegu and so he is scum. If Onegu did not visit Alakaslam, Onegu is lying about his night action and so he is scum. Either way, one of them is lying and is scum. (Onegu claims to have seen somebody visit Alakaslam but it's not central to the contradiction.) | ||
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I believe that of these two Alakaslam is the scum. I don't trust Spicy or StiMaDDict to listen to me (because I suspect they're scum) and I don't think that FirmTofu is capable of detunneling from Onegu at this point. I will need both of you to listen to turn around this lynch. | ||
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On June 28 2013 18:31 Hurricane Sponge wrote: If this is gonna work, you're going need to speak plain, or I'll need to get some sleep and get at this with a fresh brain. Is the information you're trying to convey too sensitive to just say outright? If so, I will put mental energy into this as you have requested. (But I won't like it.) Nah, I just wanted you to think about it for yourself to see if you came to the same conclusion I did. I'm still working on my post (could take a while) but I'll explain my point then. | ||
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On June 28 2013 20:07 hzflank wrote: I just want to put this out there for anyone who cares to answer: What are the odds that there is a Mafia Tracker who tracked Hurricane? Better than you might think. I think I saw one or two small slips from Hurricane indicating he had some kind of role, so there's no reason scum couldn't have as well. This is still a good point, though. Another interesting point is: If Onegu is scum, how did the mafia know that nobody else visited Alakaslam? Wallpost along these lines is incoming as soon as I check it for typos and bbcode faults. | ||
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On June 28 2013 20:31 hzflank wrote: I do not like the fact that Hurricane's first reaction was: "The mafia tracked me and Onegu is scum". If I were Hurricane, my first reaction would of been: "I can confirm Onegu's claim so Alakaslam is scum". Btw, I have been through all the possible scenarios. I was weary of telling the scum who our blues are, but to be honest I already did that a couple of pages ago because I am a compete idiot. So, either... Onegu is town Alakaslam is scum Hurricane is Mafia Framer Onegu is town Alakaslam is scum Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane Alakaslam is town Onegu is scum Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane Either the scum tracked Hurricane, or Hurricane is the Mafia Framer. Why does the Mafia Tracker have to have tracked Hurricane in the second instance? Onegu's power would let him know that Hurricane visited Alakaslam, and Alakaslam's claim does not reference Hurricane's actions. | ||
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On June 28 2013 20:40 hzflank wrote: Because the mafia did not know who Onegu's number one town read was. Why did they have to know? Alakaslam's claim that Onegu visited Hurricane (as opposed to visiting anyone else) could just be a coincidence. | ||
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On June 28 2013 20:42 Aquanim wrote: Why did they have to know? Alakaslam's claim that Onegu visited Hurricane (as opposed to visiting anyone else) could just be a coincidence. On June 28 2013 20:43 hzflank wrote: That's a big gamble for them to take. They have no reason to take such a big risk when they are winning. Let me rephrase this: Alakaslam could claim that Onegu had visited anyone other than him and it would have made Onegu just as guilty. The fact that Alakaslam happened to claim that Onegu had visited the person who Onegu in fact saw is irrelevant to the scum's plan if Alakaslam is scum. | ||
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Or: Why Onegu is town and Alakaslam is scum We can examine three possible situations here: Situation 1
+ Show Spoiler + Why did Onegu fake-claim what he did? In my opinion, fake-claiming Watcher is inherently a risky proposition for two reasons: 1) It is likely that there is a town Watcher or Tracker, and either of these could counterclaim you (the counterclaim from the Tracker is uncertain and probably won't happen immediately, but I very strongly doubt that there is a Parity Cop, Watcher and Tracker for town - too much investigative power). 2) All it takes is one person to have visited your target that you don't know about and you are completely busted. Claiming Tracker is inherently less risky, since you can perfectly replicate that with a scum power. Veteran less risky still, since you don't even have to fake any powers and it's perfectly explainable why scum haven't shot you. My guess is that Hurricane will claim Nosy Neighbor (which we could believe with much more certainty if he'd claimed it Day 1... just saying...), so if scum happened to track Hurricane then they might use that to partially "confirm" Onegu's power. It doesn't really matter what he claims though. I also don't think the time that Onegu chose to claim Watcher is particularly indicative that he is scum. I would think that scum would only take such a risk if they thought they were very likely to be lynched, just the same as a townie would only claim it (without evidence to convict scum) if he thought he was very likely to be lynched. In either case, seeing as Onegu knew he would largely be unavailable today, he wanted to get it out in the open fairly early so he would have enough time to discuss it. Summary: Onegu's Watcher claim makes very little sense as a scum fake-claim. Fakeclaiming Watcher is inherently risky since even if scum knows that somebody visited Alakaslam, they cannot possibly know that nobody else visited Alakaslam. I also don't see the timing of it as inherently scummy, nor do I think his target is completely unbelievable if he is town (see below). Situation 2
+ Show Spoiler + Why did Onegu check Alakaslam? + Show Spoiler + Damned if I know. Maybe he was hoping to catch the framer? Alakaslam is one of the most likely people in the thread to be framed IMO regardless of his alignment. (Yes, framer can frame either alignment to be its opposite, I checked.) PRE-EDIT: This is indeed the reason that Onegu claims to have watched Alakaslam. I wrote the above before he claimed this, so the fact that we are both thinking the same way is major town-points in my book. With all respect to him and his play (since I think he was the only one of us voting scum Day 1 ), based on his play so far I don't expect we can reasonably expect for Onegu to have made the optimal decision with his night actions. Watcher is a very uncommon role, and Onegu isn't very experienced. You can say "why didn't he ask his coach?" but the sad fact is that most townies don't consult with their coaches as much as they should :/ If he truly had no idea who the nightkill would be then I can see what he did as a reasonable play. tl;dr If Onegu had watched someone more likely to be killed my townread on him would be better, but I don't think a suboptimal decision with his Watcher power is sufficient grounds to lynch him, especially considering the sheer unlikeliness of Watcher as a fakeclaim. When comparing an unlikely option to a stupid and incredibly unlikely one, I prefer unlikely. Why did Onegu claim when he did? I don't see anything wrong with his explanation: On June 28 2013 19:28 Onegu wrote: I was going to sleep and I wanted to get the information out there, I knew I would be busy and I felt like the information was important to create a good town atmosphere and help people make reads with the information I provided. Why did Alakaslam fake-claim Tracker? + Show Spoiler + Hypothesis: Besides Alakaslam, the scumteam is composed of two players from the set {Spicydinosaur, StiMaDDict, LoneMeow}. I personally think that at least one, and probably two, of these three are scum. + Show Spoiler + Even if you don't agree with this hypothesis, all that is required to follow the following argument is that removing Onegu as a possible mislynch greatly decreases the likelihood that scum can secure the required mislynches for victory. I don't think this is debatable. At the start of the day, scum required two more mislynches from town to win. The playerlist was as follows: + Show Spoiler + Hurricane Sponge FirmTofu Aquanim hzflank Alakaslam LoneMeow Spicydinosaur StiMaDDict Onegu I think all of the names in green are town and I don't think scum could reasonably expect to mislynch any of us. However, they don't need to: two of the other names are town and are reasonable mislynches for scum to aim for. However, if Onegu is confirmed town through his claim, the list looks like this: + Show Spoiler + Hurricane Sponge FirmTofu Aquanim hzflank Alakaslam LoneMeow Spicydinosaur StiMaDDict Onegu There are now not enough plausible mislynches for scum to win. Clearly they are going to have to do something drastic. To get enough mislynches in this situation, scum have to convince us that one of the people we previously thought was town is in fact scum. The most plausible way to do this is to find a way to counter Onegu's claim, since there is still some thread sentiment against him, and without the claim FirmTofu at least has proved his desire to see Onegu lynched. Alakaslam is probably the most expendable of the scumteam, since there have been widespread suspicions of him in the thread, and if he starts saying anything meaningful in the thread to further a scum agenda it will be utterly uncharacteristic of his previous play; therefore he is the obvious member of the scumteam to claim. If Alakaslam is in fact telling the truth, he happens to be the tracker, who happened to track the one person who claimed today, to someone who he claims not to have visited. It is an incredibly convenient claim - in fact, I think it's the only claim he could have made which would make Onegu scum, besides straight-up counterclaiming as Watcher. As I said in the first section, Watcher is a risky fakeclaim for scum. (Since Onegu would have claimed to have been roleblocked if he had been, as either alignment, JK would not have worked to make Onegu scum.) Sure, if we lynch Onegu first Alakaslam will be the next one to die. However, at that point we will be at LYLO, which gives scum a good chance to win; that's more chance than I think they had before Alakaslam's claim. (This rationale doesn't apply to Onegu's hypothetical fakeclaim because at the point he claimed the scumteam would have had no expectation at all that they could trade lynching someone else, like Alakaslam, for lynching Onegu.) tl;dr If Onegu became confirmed town there aren't enough plausible mislynch targets left for scum to win. Scum had to stop this at any cost. They don't mind trading Alakaslam for Onegu. Summary: There is a clear scum motivation for Alakaslam to claim Tracker, and the way that his track implicates the recently claimed Watcher is incredibly convenient. Situation 3
Summary: Unlikely but concievable as some master scum move. As far as today goes we can't go wrong by lynching either of them anyway if this is true so I intend to ignore this situation for now. Fakeclaiming Watcher is inherently risky for scum. Scum do not like to take risks. Fakeclaiming Tracker is inherently less risky. If Alakaslam is scum they know Alakaslam will be confirmed scum after Onegu flips. Even so, they could be confident enough in lynching Onegu first, and happy enough with a one-for-one trade (which further allows them to kill two town leaders before serious lynch discussions recommence), to make it a winning proposition for them. This is particularly true since failing in this gambit has almost exactly the same consequences as not trying it at all, i.e. a likely town win. Previous to their claims I thought Alakaslam was much more likely to be scum than Onegu based on the character of their play, and nothing about these fakeclaims changes that for me. My vote is staying on Alakaslam. I want anyone who disagrees with this read to say exactly what in the above case, and in my previous investigations of Onegu and Alakaslam, they disagree with. | ||
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On June 28 2013 20:57 hzflank wrote: Simplified: Onegu is town Alakaslam is scum Hurricane has a power role Alakaslam is town Onegu is scum Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane If "power role" in case 1 includes NN and scum roles I think this is correct. | ||
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On June 28 2013 21:01 hzflank wrote: I think I can make a case against Alakaslam in one sentence: Apply Occam's Razor: if Alakaslam is town then either the Scum team quickly guessed that Hurricane was Onegu's town read, or the Mafia Tracker targetted Hurricane. If Alakaslam is town then Onegu is scum and so his "town read" is irrelevant. I think this should read: Apply Occam's Razor: if Alakaslam is town then the Mafia Tracker targetted Hurricane. which isn't totally implausible. Furthermore, if they hadn't Onegu could easily have just claimed that nobody visited whoever he targeted. (Like I said, though, this has the inherent risk that someone did - just like any fakeclaim of Watcher. I agree that Alakaslam is by far the most likely of the two to be scum, but I don't think this reason quite holds water. | ||
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Scum essentially have to shoot a Watcher since he is too great a threat to them. A Tracker? - not so much. There's a reasonable chance that they won't target the scum, at least not the ones with the nightkill. Scum could plausibly shoot a strong townie over the Tracker IMO, if only to introduce WIFOM. A Watcher, on the other hand, is much more likely to watch the nightkill target - and get a basically confirmed scum every time he does. If a claimed Watcher doesn't die he is very likely to be scum - Watcher is a crazy powerful town role. | ||
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On June 29 2013 04:01 FirmTofu wrote: I did consider it, but have since ruled it out as a possibility. We have already established that either Onegu or Alakaslam MUST be mafia. This puts mafia in an awkward position. They need to save their teammate because a lynch on them would spiral out of control and likely end up with multiple mafia lynches through consecutive days. If Alakaslam is mafia, StiM will likely get lynched the following day. If Onegu is mafia, we get (basically) get another confirmed mafia the next day. Thus, I do not think that mafia, in this circumstance, would be willing to give up two of their members just to split the vote and appear innocent. They must choose the same wagon to prevent a snowball effectno matter which one flips mafia. Whichever one we lynch, we end up with the same information - one is town, one is scum, and whatever corrolaries that one being mafia has. I don't even think this argument makes sense. Again, I want to reiterate that I am not voting Onegu because he is 100% scum. I believe the evidence against Onegu outweighs anything placed on Alakaslam. I also cannot see how or why a scum team would tell the flustering and bumbling Alakaslam to claim. Alakaslam genuinely looks like he is acting independently of any external input(aside from maybe a town coach). After Onegu's claim Alakaslam was the next likely lynch. I can't see why a scum team wouldn't tell Alakaslam to make a claim that contradicted Onegu's, on the grounds that they might at least trade a town PR for his death. I think Alakaslam is less bumbling and incompetent than he'd have us believe. If Alakaslam is scum there are probably scum voting for him - why would they do that? If all the scum in this game voted for Onegu at this point they'd stick out like a sore thumb. Furthermore, I don't even think it would save Alakaslam at this point (there are enough townies that even if the entire scum team votes with you on Onegu, Alakaslam may still be the lynch). They would have voted Onegu if it looked certain that he would be lynched with a clear majority (which would make them look less suspicious). If they would be strongly culpable for lynching him, it probably wouldn't be worth it to them. Lynching Onegu gives us more information than lynching Alakaslam. This argument is almost completely irrelevant, even if it's true. Lynching the scum, rather than the town PR, is much, much more important than whatever "information" we would gain either way. | ||
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I agree that unless it is necessary to decide the lynch one way or another there is no need for Hurricane to claim. | ||
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On June 29 2013 09:18 StiMaDDict wrote: Explain this to me? I thought Alak claimed Onegu visited Hurricane and that he himself visited Alak. Since we are lynching Alak, I'm assuming that he is most likely telling a lie, therefore it is correct that Onegu visited Alak. How is it that Onegu knows where Hurricane visited? Still trying to catch up. What am I missing? Onegu has claimed Watcher. He claims to have watched Alakaslam, and to have seen Hurricane visit Alakaslam. | ||
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The hypothesis that Alakaslam is town appears to largely rest on the fact that he appeared to be confused as to the ramifications of his claim (regarding whether it confirmed Onegu and him as town). If Alakaslam is the scum tracker, could he have thought (by the same logic as whatever he used above) that his claim made them both (look) town? There are some serious logical problems with the latter... but then again there are serious logical problems with every explanation of Alakaslam's actions. | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:35 hzflank wrote: @Aquanim: So when Onegu flips red, who else is scum? Onegu flipping red is not a situation I've thought much about the ramifications of. I'd have to think more about association cases, but basically whichever of these two flips red I think most to all of the scumteam is in {Spicy, LoneMeow, StiM}. Spicy's desire to talk about stuff that's not relevant to today's lynch does not sit well with me. | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:36 hzflank wrote: EBWOP, I meant when: Alakaslam flips red: Who else is scum? Oh right :/ Still the same answer though. Simply through having townreads on everyone else, Spicy, LoneMeow or StiMaDDict. | ||
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I'd really prefer if you put your vote down to prevent last-minute shenanigans. | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:42 FirmTofu wrote: Alak is a 75% town read right now for me. My reasoning is that 1) I had a pre-flip scum read on Onegu (See my case) 2) Alakaslam and Onegu CANNOT be the same alignment. 3) Alakaslam seems to be acting independently of any potential mafia team, which is odd. 4) Alakaslam's claim would be extremely silly to make if he was scum. It unnecessarily places him directly in the spotlight and increases his chances of being lynched to 50% automatically. I don't think you've actually read what I've written. 3) The mafia team doesn't want to associate themselves with Alakaslam's gambit. If it works, good - if it doesn't, they haven't thrown the game away on it. 4) Alakaslam was very likely to be lynched before his claim. 50% was an improvement on his odds of survival IMO. | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:45 hzflank wrote: Vote:##Onegu You were voting for Alakaslam before. What changed your mind? | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:48 hzflank wrote: If Alakaslam is scum then the only possible 3 man scum team is Alaka, Firm and Stim. If I can convince you that I am town then we win. Therefore, we have nothing to lose by mislynching Onegu, but a lot to lose by mislynching Alakaslam. WHAT? SCUM WON'T NECESSARILY ALL BE VOTING FOR THE TOWNIE HERE WTF | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:51 hzflank wrote: Look at when the votes went down. LoneMeow dropped the important 5th vote. You made the important case. The read on Hurricane is independent of is vote. LoneMeow voted for Alakaslam FIRST He just decided to vote again, god knows why | ||
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On June 29 2013 10:53 hzflank wrote: He voted before the claims, then unvoted when the claims occurred. Then voted again later. He unvoted, did he? Guess I missed that. | ||
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On June 29 2013 11:03 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Well played, Aqua. Too bad you and Onegu had to die now for that. A mislynch always sucks, but Slam was radio silent this whole time. He mentioned himself he was mentally checked out of this game, so as long as the rest of town stays motivated going forward, we'll win this. This may be pretty hard for you to believe, but I got a town role PM. Just because I was apparently completely wrong in my read doesn't mean my play this game has been scummy. | ||
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On June 29 2013 11:06 FirmTofu wrote: @Aquanim I want your new reads. Please explain why as well. I'll have to think about association with Onegu and that might take a while, but for now this is where I'm at: Spicy: didn't commit hard to either lynch today. Still got no reasons to think he's town. Nothing much has really changed about Spicy since my read at the end of Night 1. StiMaDDict: still hasn't done jack LoneMeow: hasn't done much of anything, and vote for Alakaslam now doesn't look real good. Still pretty sure everyone else (besides Onegu, obviously) is town but I suppose I'd better take another look at everyone to be sure. | ||
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On June 29 2013 11:16 Hurricane Sponge wrote: StiM cast a crucial vote against Onegu. If you're still suspecting him, you're obviously not analyzing from a pro-town perspective. When StiM voted Onegu, he was still two voteswitches away from being lynched, which at that time looked pretty unlikely. It's a point in StiM's favour but not a conclusive one. | ||
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On June 29 2013 11:19 Hurricane Sponge wrote: If the remaining townies don't see that Aqua is scum, we deserve to lose. (Not that we already don't deserve to lose with the quality posting content of StiM, Xzavier and Alakaslam on our side...) The mafia play here is to kill me tonight (since I'm probably the only one who can convince Tofu of anything at this point), resulting in a split vote on Day 4 and a mafia win. If the remaining townies can't tell that I'm town we're going to lose. | ||
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On June 29 2013 11:21 hzflank wrote: Then why did you push so hard to lynch Alakaslam? You must of played out endgame scenarios. Because I thought he was scum and that if we lynched Onegu we would essentially be in the position we're in now. Look back at my arguments that Alakaslam (and Xzavier, for that matter) was scum and decide for yourself if a townie or a scum made those arguments, aped the spotlight and pushed them hard. I sincerely believed that both of them would flip scum, and hoping that you can see that is the only defence I can make for my play. If you have any questions as to my motivations and my reasons - ask them. I have nothing to hide. | ||
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On June 29 2013 11:29 Hurricane Sponge wrote: We all let this slip by. Mafia want to know if they're contending with a JK. <facepalm> Claiming roleblocks is standard play in every TL mafia game. Check with your coach. | ||
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Make a case explaining why these things make me scum and I'll tell you why I did them as a townie. | ||
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On June 29 2013 11:34 hzflank wrote: Bad answer. If someone was roleblocked they would of contacted a coach if they needed to. You needed to know whether someone was roleblocked. Why? Enforcing that anyone who is roleblocked must claim it is beneficial to town. It's common knowledge in normal TL mafia games but it occured to me that people in this game might not know. I never assume that anyone asks their coach about anything, even if they should. That was my only motivation behind this post. If you still think that's scummy, I tell you again to check with your coach. | ||
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If I was scum, and I was going to coach scum, I'd do it in the scum QT. What exactly is the point you're trying to make? | ||
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On June 29 2013 11:48 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Asking leading questions. Instead of 'defend yourself' it is 'who should be lynch instead'. WHAT IS SCUMMY ABOUT THIS ARE YOU EVEN LISTENING TO ME It was already clear that Onegu would have to defend himself. I wanted to see what his reads were, to put more information into the thread. Knowing what his reads were may now make it easier to find his scumbuddies. | ||
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On June 29 2013 11:54 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Literally no townie thought like this. Displays a completely different frame of reference I was RIGHT. Can you seriously not understand this. | ||
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On June 29 2013 12:11 hzflank wrote: You said yourself that our town list was: Aquanim, Hurricane, FirmTofu and hzflank. So, if you actually believed the above quote then you would of pushed for the four of us to work together. In the end, what you have actually done is ”convince us that one of the people we previously thought was town is in fact scum” Your case against Alakaslam did the exact same thing that you claimed the scum fake claim was trying to do. My case against Alakaslam was intended to push for all of the townies in the thread to get behind it. My read was in fact wrong and the end result is that a townie was mislynched. As a townie, that was obviously not my intention. | ||
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On June 29 2013 12:19 hzflank wrote: No. That quote contains your reason as to why the scum team would be motivated to fake claim. But if you apply that same logic to the reason why you should or should not of defended Onegu, then you should not. it is inconsistent I don't actually understand what you're saying here. I defended Onegu because I thought he was town. I wanted to lynch Alakaslam because I thought he was scum. Can you rephrase what you're saying? | ||
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On June 29 2013 12:37 hzflank wrote: If you actually believed what (you claim is) is the scum team's motivation for a fake-counter-claim is, and you had played out end game scenarios (which you obviously had in that very post) then your vote would of voted for Onegu. This is because by playing out your end game scenarios you would know that if we mislynch Alakaslam while you are on the wrong wagon, then we end up in the exact same end game scenario that you claim we must avoid. Therefore, you did not believe in the reason that you gave for the motivation behind the scum's fake claim. So what you're saying here is that I shouldn't have voted for the person I believed was scum because if the person I strongly believed was scum was actually town I would look bad? You think that I should have instead voted for the person who I thought was town because if the person I strongly believed was town, but voted for them anyway, flipped town you think I wouldn't look bad? Check your logic. You seem to be assuming that I knew Alakaslam would be a mislynch, which I did not. | ||
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On June 29 2013 12:49 hzflank wrote: Yes. And I am a horrible communicator so I will try to put it another way again. Aquanim is looking at the end game scenarios. Aquanim states that the motivation behind the scum making a risky play is because we have 4 confirmed town reads. Aquanim acts in the best way to get an end game scenario where we no longer have those 4 confirmed town read. You think that as scum I would try to ensure that I was no longer a confirmed town read? What are you even trying to say? | ||
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As town, who did not know which of the two were scum but believed that Alakaslam was scum and that Onegu would be confirmed town in that case, trying to lynch Alakaslam (who I did not know was town) is STILL the correct play. | ||
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You seriously considered it, Hurricane believed it and voted for Alakaslam at least partially based on it... there were no serious flaws in it. I think the knowledge you have now (that Alakaslam is in fact town) is warping your judgement as to whether I could have believed that case. | ||
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On June 29 2013 16:41 FirmTofu wrote: Aquanim. Read carefully. I think I have figured out the best way to exonerate yourself. Pick your strongest scum read(other than Onegu) and make the best possible case you can for their lynch instead of yours. If you do this, I will definitely be able to ascertain your alignment. If you refuse to do this, I will peg you as mafia and you will likely be lynched after Onegu. I have thought about this a lot and this is the best possible play I could come up with. I will post my case on various people after you follow through. Okay, I can do that. If you want my best possible case, it will take some time though. I intend to post it at the start of the one-hour night action resolution phase, unless you have some objection. | ||
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First, some process of elimination. I don't believe FirmTofu, Hurricane Sponge or hzflank are scum. If any of them are, I think we have probably lost already. I can't imagine they wouldn't be in a position to last-minute switch and secure one last mislynch at some point in the next three days. Onegu is confirmed scum, and I know I'm town. This leaves Spicydinosaur, LoneMeow and StiMaDDict as my remaining possibilities for the two extant scum. I am most confident of my scumread on Spicydinosaur. On Spicydinosaur A fair bit is pretty much a repeat of my thoughts on him at the end of Night One, maybe refined a little. Spicy is playing very defensively and reactively. At the very start of the game Spicy reacted quite strongly to Hurricane saying he was weakly suspicious of him for posting largely fluff: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417692¤tpage=9#178 The most notable aspect of his reaction to these comments is that he doesn't seem to want to talk about himself much. Spicy could have just said "Yeah, my filter is kinda fluffy at this point, I'll be working on that"; hell, he could have just ignored it, it's not like he was seriously being accused of being scum. Instead, he becomes agressive and points out problems with their filter while barely acknowledging the weakness in his own. This is quite different to his reaction in a similar situation as a townie in the previous newbie (see the Meta section below.) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417692¤tpage=14#272 I've already gone over the problems with Spicy's case on Tofu in my post at the end of N1, go back and read that. The whole thing about 'voting fyfy over stim to pressure' seems awfully nitpicky, too. I'm starting to ramble and just cherrypick posts at this point, but before I stop: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417692¤tpage=14#273 He says says LoneMeow is 'on his radar' but spends most of the post saying that LoneMeow played like this in his last game and flipped town. Not sure what the point of this post was at all, except to bring to the thread's attention that this is LoneMeow's town meta... I know some of you don't like meta, but if you want my read - the strongest case I can bring on Spicy - I'm going to use it here. You can ignore this if you like. + Show Spoiler [meta] + In Les Mafia, Spicy seemed to react with far more tolerance and understanding to people being suspicious of him. However, I know from my own experience that town meta changes a LOT once you get into a normal game (rather than a newbie) and the situation under which he was pressured was quite different. I think it's a lot more interesting to look at Spicy's play in the last newbie. In particular, I'm interested in this reaction here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=412757¤tpage=24#465 On June 06 2013 21:38 Spicydinosaur wrote: I just did a little theory to get the game going. Wasn't much discussion going on before I went to bed. And if you are going to vote me, at least get my theory right... I said pressure lurkers. Anyways, here are some thoughts. @Firere345 seems to be only sheeping. He agrees with Umasi's post about iVLosK! and then asks a pointless mod question about a jester. Reading the first page of the thread tells you what roles are possible in this game and jester is NOT on it. So why ask it? A true newbie to this game would probably read that first page up and down multiple times. So far he feels pretty scummy. @Skanjab1s You throw a vote on me for theory yet your only post is just to throw a vote with nothing else. Town read for now. @Umasi is my most worrisome read right now. He is generating some discussion but a lot of his posts are full of fluff. Taking a wait and see on him. @Yavanna strongest town read atm. Generates discussion and asks good questions. This is quite similar to the situation in the current game: Spicy has been pressured (in this case, even voted) by someone who hasn't contributed much to the thread so far (this was Skanhab1s' first post of the game, in fact). However, in this case Spicy responds calmly and acknowledges that he hasn't posted much of value so far. In fact, Spicy obtained a tentative townread on Skanjab1s, apparently based solely on the fact that Skanjab1s correctly identified he was posting fluff. I'm not going to pretend that this is some ironclad 100% proof that Spicy is scum. Perhaps he was just in a different mood this game. Who knows? It's just an indication that his mentality this game is different, and that he is more unreasonably reactive to what other people say about him than he has been in the past as a townie. Spicy's case day 1 does not indicate to me that he'd made a serious analysis of the thread. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417692¤tpage=24#461 Spicy's case, and where his vote ended up Day 1, was on Hurricane Sponge. His case was essentially that Hurricane Sponge had only posted fluff and blue-related stuff, which was in fact true. However, Hurricane had only actually posted during the early part of the game when that was pretty much all that anyone had posted. I don't see how "being AFK while the thread became serious" is grounds for a scumread, and that's basically what this case boiled down to. I don't think that this case warranted a vote on Hurricane, and I certainly don't think it warranted keeping his vote on Hurricane when the latter returned to the thread and gave his reads, etc. Spicy's read on Hurricane changed a lot, to reading him as town, when the overall thread sentiment became that Hurricane was town. There's no good reason why a town Spicy wouldn't have his mind changed by the change in Hurricane's play during the night (which definitely happened) so this isn't really alignment indicative. Spicy hasn't pushed his vote targets as lynch targets for the rest of the thread. In day one Spicy didn't try to get anyone to vote for Hurricane (besides through his fairly uninspired case). His case and his play was not aggressively trying to get Hurricane lynched - Compare this to the play of, say, Chromatically, who strongly pushed other people to vote for Xzavier. Same deal for day 2. Spicy basically summed up the arguments made by others for the two wagons, voted for Alakaslam and... returned to pressuring and arguing with FirmTofu? The Onegu/Alakaslam issue was hanging over the thread, it could have gone either way, and which one of them was lynched would likely be pivotal to the outcome of the game, and Spicy decides to go do something else rather than pushing for his read to be lynched? Spicy did argue against one or two of the points raised by FirmTofu, but I get the feeling that this had more to do with sniping at FirmTofu than any actual desire to persuade him (or anyone else) to vote for Alakaslam. Compare this to hzflank or Hurricane (who both remained kind of undecided and were seriously considering both lynches up until the deadline) or to FirmTofu and myself (who vehemently pushed our respective reads). Either of the above is the reaction of a competent town player to the day 2 situtation. Spicy's reaction was not this. StiMaDDict and LoneMeow haven't done this either, but they've never had the thread presence to. Spicy has had the thread presence, is more likely to have the skills, and has not done so. Spicy isn't trying to clarify his more difficult reads. I don't think I've seen Spicy trying to get answers/reactions/whatever out of any of his null reads - if he has it's very rare in his filter. Townies typically try to get their null reads to express themselves more, or answer questions, so they can improve their reads. Spicy just keeps harassing FirmTofu. Spicydinosaur is one of the most experienced players in this game - like me, this game is his fourth, and my impression of him as a player is that he is pretty decent. If he were town I would expect to know it by now, in the same way that I know about FT, Hurricane and hzflank. I've felt no such indications from him. For instance: If Spicy had seriously pushed the Hurricane (day one) or Alakaslam (day two) lynches, instead of just saying enough to justify his vote and then not pushing it any further, that would be a town indication. If Spicy's case day one had been meatier than "Hurricane hasn't posted much of substance" that would be a town indication. If I'd seen a single thought from Spicy this game and thought to myself "Scum wouldn't think to say that", that would be a town indication. I'd expect at least one of these out of a town Spicy - and I've seen none. A lot of the above applies to StiMaDDict and LoneMeow as well... but I expect more from Spicy. The other reason I think Spicy is scum is that I only think one of LoneMeow and StiMaDDict is scum, and thus Spicy is likely scum by process of elimination. FirmTofu only asked for my strongest scumread, but if you want to know about these I don't mind saying who and why. | ||
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On June 30 2013 00:25 Aquanim wrote: @LoneMeow and StiMaDDict: I think it would be a good idea for both of you to tell us who your main suspect is as well. EBWOP: WITH YOUR REASONS. | ||
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On June 30 2013 09:33 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Also, Onegu doesn't have to be a Mafia Power Role. One of his scumbuddies (the real mafia tracker) could have just told Onegu what he knew to help him save himself when he felt under pressure. Alakaslam saw Onegu visit you, didn't he? You're not dead, so Onegu wasn't carrying scum KP. Therefore, Onegu has a scum PR. | ||
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On June 30 2013 09:59 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Down in the game, sometimes you have to go for a big play. If a LoneMeow - Aqua connection makes sense, and there is plausible Mafia tenancies in both, I wouldn't fault you guys for pulling the trigger. We're getting down to desperation time, and if a red flip on one means a red flip on the other, it's worth considering. To paraphrase an earlier metaphor, I'm with Tofu now. It's time to buy lotto tickets. For what it's worth I'd prefer to lynch LoneMeow over StiMaDDict after the way yesterday's lynch turned out. Reasons:
But Aqua, this is a reversal of the read you've had all game? What changed? Alakaslam flipped town. Also, StiMaDDict's filter quadrupled in size. | ||
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hzflank, FirmTofu and Hurricane are the obvious shots for scum to take. They will need to take at least two shots between now and the next lynch that isn't Onegu. Why would scum not shoot someone who might be the Veteran tonight and get it over with? If they happen to shoot the Veteran they can shoot him again and kill him before he gets to directly control the next day's real lynch discussions as a confirmed townie. | ||
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##Vote: Onegu | ||
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On June 30 2013 00:33 FirmTofu wrote: This is what we need to see next. @LoneMeow and StiM You both need to make a case for ONE top scum read and convince us that he is mafia. You may give us what you think the rest of the mafia team is, but the necessary input is a good case on one read. StiM's been here but I don't know if he saw this. | ||
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On July 01 2013 07:22 StiMaDDict wrote: I don't think shortening the day is a great idea but I'll consent to the majority. Well, if we'd agreed to shorten the day it would have ended three minutes ago... Also, what's the point in having a longer day if you're not going to say anything either way? Your best scumread, StiMaDDict. Please? | ||
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I'd like to know who else LoneMeow thinks is scum. | ||
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On June 29 2013 21:42 Spicydinosaur wrote: @everyone, please look at the relationships between everyone, not just the individual filters. Quick FYI: i will be traveling for the next couple of days so i will be posting from my phone. On June 30 2013 00:56 Spicydinosaur wrote: Case on stim. d1 he picks aqua as a target and votes him at the very end not really affecting the vote. he blows up aquas position on nn policy and r a ils on him for the xzavier vote. What I see here is a scum on scum vote meqnt to be used later for cred in the event aqua dies. D2 stim disappears again till qn hour before the vote and claims ignorance of the situation. He fake buys his time asking questions and seeing the votes. Knowing that slam will be killed regardless of the vot3, he votes against it for town cred. Also he is actually active in the post lynch talk.... but why? Because scum only need 1 misslynch to win so hes trying hard now to get there. On June 30 2013 01:02 Spicydinosaur wrote: Also forgot to add something. He had a scum read on aqua d1...and then aqua has a huge post on slam is most likely scum which led to a misslynch... but he now only has a null read?? Doesnt make sense except that hes protecting him or at least not throwing him under the bus yet. Spicy, your entire read on me (and for that matter StiM) appears to be based on relationships (and mostly speculative between the two of us rather than to the confirmed scum Onegu), rather than individual filters. I appreciate that there isn't a whole lot in StiM's filter to go off, but FirmTofu had a strong town read on me based on my play viewed individually. If you think I'm scum, what in FirmTofu's analysis (link) do you disagree with? | ||
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On July 02 2013 18:00 hzflank wrote: @Aqua, what do you think of this post by LoneMeow? Well, it hasn't explained as much of what he's thinking as I'd like. @LoneMeow: Could you justify your reads from this post some more? These reads basically align with mine - I would say Hurricane is as good as confirmed town, Stim is possible scum and Spicy is likely. A little curious that he's chosen to base it on "associations betweeen players" seeing as how Spicy (at least) is calling me scum (rather than 'not likely') based entirely on association... A question we have to ask ourselves is: What is the plan of scum likely to be at the moment? I see three options:
Of the three I think the third is perhaps more likely (covering both bases might feel safer than going all-in one way or the other), but all three are viable possibilities. This makes it difficult to analyse reads given at this point in the game - scum could have reasons to push the lynch of basically anybody. As such, I think this post by LoneMeow, and the reads he's given here, aren't particularly useful to me in terms of determining his alignment - especially seeing as he hasn't given any reasoning behind them. Unjustified reads given at LYLO are WIFOM hell. The thing which bothers me about LoneMeow's case on you (hzflank) as a scum move is that I don't see how scum could reasonably expect to lynch you at this point... and furthermore, they don't have to. Scum only need one mislynch to win and there's plenty of easier lynchbait. It does have the advantage that he hasn't had to say anything much about the more likely lynches, though. | ||
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Xzavier (7): LoneMeow, Chromatically, Aquanim, FirmTofu, Hurricane Sponge, hzflank, Alakaslam Aquanim (2): Xzavier, StiMaDDict Alakaslam (1): Onegu Hurricane Sponge (1): Spicydinosaur That's right, nobody on the Xzavier wagon. While scum generally don't want to draw attention to themselves by driving a wagon on a townie, there's also security in numbers - voting for someone all out on your lonesome also draws attention to you and I doubt they'd be comfortable with none of the scumteam hiding among the large proportion of players on the Xzavier wagon. This doesn't make a Spicy/StiM team impossible but I think it's less likely. | ||
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On July 02 2013 20:19 hzflank wrote: @Aqua Considering the bad position that the town is in, can you explain to me the benefit of even looking at the game as though there is a reasonable chance of Stim being scum? If he is scum I'd prefer to work it out (somehow) and lynch him. If he isn't I'd like to find whatever can convince me of that, for my peace of mind if nothing else. | ||
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On July 02 2013 23:27 hzflank wrote: Do you realize that to beat a Lone/Stim we have to lynch Stim on day 4? If we lynch Lone then day 5 is Aqua, Spicy and Stim. Do you think Stim will get lynched in that scenario? Look, if you think Stim is scum make an argument for it and I'll listen. I'm not so tunneled on Spicy that I won't listen to reason. | ||
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Spicy's reasons for saying I'm not scum with LoneMeow are reasonable enough, though hardly enough to be as certain as he is IMO. I feel that in the association case with StiM (link) he's trying to twist the facts to make them suit his read, rather than the other way around. StiM had no previous posting history, he could have voted anyone - I don't see any reason for him to vote his scumbuddy and push his wagon again just when it was starting to die. LoneMeow still hasn't really given us much of anything and StiM, as you say, appears not to be reading the thread thoroughly... which makes it hard to read him. | ||
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On July 03 2013 10:55 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Spicy's suspicion of hz comes from a weird place. Nothing about his thought process screams 'Town' to me, and it does smell a lot like scum trying to scumhunt. Spicy suspects hz? Do you mean LoneMeow? | ||
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On July 03 2013 10:57 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Also, in my opinion, LoneMeow is the 'safe' lynch. It's a policy lynch, sure. But there's a real case there, and it won't get you yelled at in Post-game. I agree with this up to a point... but the concept of 3-man LYLO with Spicy and StiM scares me a lot. If we decide to lynch into LoneMeow today, whoever dies tomorrow night had better leave StiM some very specific instructions. | ||
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@hzflank, I'm pretty sure I have a better townread on you than you do on me so I'm willing to let you call the shots. Of Spicy and LoneMeow, I think LoneMeow is probably the safer lynch as far as today goes - but I think it might be easier to get StiM on-side to lynch Spicy while you're still alive. If you're scum you've outplayed me and if StiM's scum I guess I'll just be pissed off. Although I just had a nasty thought... - StiM thought that Onegu was a tracker - Onegu was in fact a (scum) tracker Do you think that could have been a scumslip? | ||
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On July 03 2013 11:21 Aquanim wrote: Although I just had a nasty thought... - StiM thought that Onegu was a tracker - Onegu was in fact a (scum) tracker Do you think that could have been a scumslip? meh I reread this and I think the answer's no. If StiM missed the part where Onegu actually claimed watcher (which was a pretty small post IIRC and didn't make a humongous splash until Alakaslam's claim) his position makes sense... kinda. I don't like the whole business much but, then again, that's nothing new. | ||
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##Vote: Spicydinosaur | ||
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On July 03 2013 23:53 Spicydinosaur wrote: .... I also dont see how night kills exonerates aqua in any way what so ever. Killing tofu just put more pressure on me which is exactly what scum wanted. We have a whole day and everyone is just playing into aqua's hands. Please dont let the night kill order be so persuasive that it clouds aqua's scummy filter. As most others think stim is town im voting for my second scum pick of aqua. ##vote Aquanim I don't really think there's anything to say to this, other than that I don't have a scummy filter [source: 3 NK'd townies and my own appraisal]. Besides that I don't see a case to argue against here. | ||
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TIL: Messing around on the edge of being mislynched from start to finish of a game is bad for one's nerves | ||
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Still balanced but Town has less room for error. My condensed analysis of this game would be that once myself and StiM became townreads there were simply too many "unlynchable" townies for scum to win. Fundamentally scum needed three mislynches, and they just weren't in the game to be had at that point. There just wasn't anything to discuss from day 4 onwards. In particular, in terms of my analysis Spicy played a decent game but sheer process of elimination left him as the only possible scum. On July 06 2013 06:51 StiMaDDict wrote: If I get to be scum, would it be a good play? Afterall, I didn't get lybched in either of my first two games. Meh... at least as far as I'm concerned, the reason I didn't want to lynch you was some towntells you dropped (which you wouldn't have done as scum). If you were scum and played a lurky style of the same magnitude I think you'd quite likely get lynched. If you play a little more active town will be so thankful they'll let you get away with murder (literally). | ||
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On July 06 2013 11:50 StiMaDDict wrote: @Aquanim What exactly did people see in me that made them think I was town? It's my play but even I'm not so sure XD Only thing I can think of is when asked questions and voted Onegu at the end of Day2. IIRC it was your confusion about the ramifications of Alakaslam and Onegu's fakeclaims. I figured a scum would have a better idea of what was going on from reading the scum QT. It's hardly the kind of thing that I like to base a townread on since I think it could possibly be faked, but under the circumstances... Your posts in day 4 also read as very town to me. On July 06 2013 11:35 geript wrote: The goal of this setup that WoS, Cora and myself had discussed was to have an investigation heavy setup. My goal was that 3 mislynches would mean scum wins, which feels fine to me. I think most of the actions taken were quite good. Like I said, I think the setup was balanced - just a different dynamic to most of the recent newbies that I've seen, which appears to have been your intention. Thanks to you guys for hosting this game, I enjoyed myself and I think you did a good job (even if there was a hiccup or two ) + Show Spoiler [my shameful hosting story] + The first time I hosted a Mafia game IRL I modconfirmed a cop and broke the game... particularly sad since the two remaining scum were the towniest-looking players by far and had the game on lockdown The third scum had been nightkilled (by scum) night 1 since he didn't look up during the night and I was too stunned by their choice to fix it :/ At least the game was hilarious, everyone wanted to play another after that | ||
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On July 06 2013 12:10 Chromatically wrote: On June 25 2013 15:49 Aquanim wrote: ...There could well be scum in this group but I'm not nearly as confident about any one of them as I am about you and Onegu. Now if only either of us had retained those reads at the end of Night 1... | ||
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On July 06 2013 06:27 Spicydinosaur wrote: Also any comments/criticism on my play is welcome. I've never actually rolled scum so I'm not sure how useful my comments will be, but there are one or two things I've thought of. I think you played a pretty good scum game - you were the only one of the scum team with a significant amount of thread presence and sway over the town after day one. There was never any one thing in your filter I could point to and say "scum did that". I think what you might need to keep in mind is your overall attitude to the game - your reads generally made sense, you didn't out yourself through those, but you never tried to make anything much happen in the thread. You don't have to make any huge gambits like hzflank's Veteran fakeclaim but you do need to look like you're having an impact and trying to push a (town) agenda. If you look at the filter of Hurricane, hzflank, FirmTofu, Chromatically or myself I think there will be a lot more proactive behaviour than in yours. Obviously there's a limit to what you want to do as scum, but you would like to look at least similar to a townie. EDIT: I don't necessarily mean pushing for a lynch by "proactive behaviour", though obviously that is a good example. Actively trying to generate useful information, and synthesising it into a relevant conclusion, is another example. | ||
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<hint hint> | ||
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If you look at the playerlist at that point: + Show Spoiler + FirmTofu Hurricane Sponge hzflank Aquanim Onegu Alakaslam Spicydinosaur LoneMeow StiMaDDict The green indicates the people who I think scum could not reasonably count on mislynching (if Alakaslam was scum). If Onegu goes uncounterclaimed he's almost certain not to be lynched, and after that there aren't enough mislynches in the town for scum to win. If they secure an Onegu mislynch, even if Alakaslam is lynched afterwards, they only need to make sure the last null-zone townie is lynched before both of them - a reasonable proposition. You said that scum can't trade 1 for 1 because the numbers aren't in their favour, but if you look at the math in this way: - Scum need two mislynches to win - Town need three scum lynches to win a 1 for 1 trade might actually benefit scum. Also, momentum was building for an Alakaslam lynch prior to his claim - without that claim, I think we'd have either lynched him or (possible) policy-lynched StiM. Trading his likely lynch for a chance of a lynch into a town PR would have been worthwhile IMO. The whole thing about not understanding the ramifications of his claim should have been a tell but I've always been mistrustful of such tells, even though they generally turn out to be correct :/ This is pretty much a repeat of the argument I made at the time. Obviously it turned out not to be correct, but I think it offers a reasonable justification for why a scum Alakaslam would have "counterclaimed" Onegu. Is there some flaw with this argument I've missed? | ||
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