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On June 29 2013 03:33 FirmTofu wrote:
There are too many people on the Alakaslam bandwagon, meaning that scum has to be on it.
Q: Why would scum vote out their own man?
A: They wouldn't. They are voting for someone they know to be town.
Hurricane, I am deeply disappointed in you. You need to consider what the mafia team could possibly be at this point if Alakaslam is mafia.
Or they could be bussing and trying to get ahead of the wagon. you ever consider scum splitting up the votes? Also suprising you didnt apply this logic to the xzavier vote. 7 people were on him and you didnt go "oh shit this guy has to be town," no you kept your vote on him and lied to get others to join. You cant use this logic when you completely ignored it in the past.
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On June 29 2013 03:54 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 03:51 FirmTofu wrote:On June 29 2013 03:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
2. The information we'd gain from an Onegu mislynch is inconsistent with the rest of the game.
If you truly believe 2. is true, wouldn't you also have to agree that the Onegu mislynch is unlikely BECAUSE it is inconsistent with the rest of the game? I think the problem is that we see the same issue with the Onegu mislynch, but I attribute it to the fact the Onegu is scum and you are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he is town because of it. Of course, you can see it both ways, but I would say that these two scenarios are equally likely and thus should cancel out. You cannot say this inconsistency makes Onegu more likely to be town. I ask you again. If Alakaslam is mafia, who constitutes the rest of his team? What are your reads? Likely, my reads would be StiM and LoneMeow. I'd have to briefly re-evaluate you, Spicy and HZ. There are more open ends with that situation than any other, but the point is moot because we'd have lynched a mafia, which is good.
I would suggest relooking at tofu now as he's heavily trying to change your vote. He's already proven once that he lies to get a vote on a townie, and then again this morning he tried lying to me to get more to vote on onegu. He's also been wrong about most of the connections between people in this game (ie me and xzavier being scum buddies, onegu's town read being me or hz).
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On June 29 2013 03:59 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
The time will come for that. A tofu lynch is not productive for the town at this juncture.
Didnt mean it as a lynch candidate for today, but the way he has manipulated people voting in the past is relevant.
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On June 29 2013 04:01 FirmTofu wrote:
Again, I want to reiterate that I am not voting Onegu because he is 100% scum. I believe the evidence against Onegu outweighs anything placed on Alakaslam. I also cannot see how or why a scum team would tell the flustering and bumbling Alakaslam to claim.
Alakaslam genuinely looks like he is acting independently of any external input(aside from maybe a town coach).
Your assuming he did this with the other's consent. As you pointed out right after, he acts independently.
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On June 29 2013 04:09 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 04:08 Spicydinosaur wrote:On June 29 2013 04:01 FirmTofu wrote:
Again, I want to reiterate that I am not voting Onegu because he is 100% scum. I believe the evidence against Onegu outweighs anything placed on Alakaslam. I also cannot see how or why a scum team would tell the flustering and bumbling Alakaslam to claim.
Alakaslam genuinely looks like he is acting independently of any external input(aside from maybe a town coach). Your assuming he did this with the other's consent. As you pointed out right after, he acts independently. Why would he act independently if he had a mafia team, though?
For the exact purpose of getting you to think like this. We both know there are general assumptions of how scum players act or are supposed to act. We also know that scum change up their game and do things that wouldnt exactly line up as scummy to better hide.
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On June 29 2013 04:16 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 04:13 Spicydinosaur wrote:On June 29 2013 04:09 FirmTofu wrote:On June 29 2013 04:08 Spicydinosaur wrote:On June 29 2013 04:01 FirmTofu wrote:
Again, I want to reiterate that I am not voting Onegu because he is 100% scum. I believe the evidence against Onegu outweighs anything placed on Alakaslam. I also cannot see how or why a scum team would tell the flustering and bumbling Alakaslam to claim.
Alakaslam genuinely looks like he is acting independently of any external input(aside from maybe a town coach). Your assuming he did this with the other's consent. As you pointed out right after, he acts independently. Why would he act independently if he had a mafia team, though? For the exact purpose of getting you to think like this. We both know there are general assumptions of how scum players act or are supposed to act. We also know that scum change up their game and do things that wouldnt exactly line up as scummy to better hide. Spicy, this is WIFOM, and I don't think it's the most likely scenario. I think 'Slam may have acted independently because he has to. If StiM and Lonemeow are afk in mafia QT, 'slam is having to make these plays himself.
I agree its probably not what occurred, i just didnt like tofu assuming it away like he has some additional knowledge of the situation.
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On June 29 2013 05:15 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Going through the filters, I now think I have figured out who the entire scum team is if 'Slam mislynches. I will vet it properly before I post it, but it will be ready for posting once Night Time hits.
Got a list as well, though i have a feeling its not going to line up with yours. I'm still hoping that 'slam is scum and that the vote was overwhelming because of bussing. Would make this figuring out a lot easier.
As for stim, im more looking forward to his explanation of the vote rather than the vote itself. Town or scum can easily be seen on either side, especially with the votes the way they are.
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On June 29 2013 18:09 FirmTofu wrote:
Spicy, I would like to extend the same courtesy to you. Please make a strong case on your best scum read so that we may ascertain your alignment. Tell us why we should vote for him instead of you. If you do not do this, you will be the default lynch after Onegu dies.
Cant do quotes right now because im posting from a phone.
Onegu is obviously scum at this point. Though everyone will admit that so its irrelevant.
Either lone or stim is scum or both. Im not convinced of stim as he jumped in the conversation at the last moment. What he said sounded towny, but with the way the votes were, and if he were actually mafia, he would obviously know which way alakaslam would flip so he made a nice posts to get town cred.
Lone for pretty much everyone else's reasons, 2 votes on townie, activity level is the bare minimum not to get noticed D1.
Im still not convinced tofu isnt scum. He lied to get people to vote a townie. His defense of 'slam can easily just be for town cred as his two scum buddies were already on him. Mostly everyone in the thread knows our sentiment towards each other so ill move on.
Aqua i have a null read on and will need to look into his filter a lot more. He voted to kill two townies and made a big case against 'slam that i agreed with to an extent. I didnt find his call for people to claim roleblock scummy though as its standard mafia game practice to claim (learned this lesson the hard way). His interaction with onegu is the most troubling as others have pointed out. They were butting heads D1, and onegu put a vote on him, but when it looked like there could be a real chance that aqua would get enough votes, onegu switched off. And then D2, Aqua defended onegu when there was a chance onegu would flip.
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A quick aside about me. Theres no point in convincing tofu im not scum at this point as he has his mind made up. But for everyone else look at my filter. I defended xzavier because i didnt think his play made sense from a scum perspective and for meta reasons at the end of last game. I defended Gotard in the last newbie game D1 using the same logic (minus the meta) and argued that it didnt make sense for scum gotard to play that way.
For my vote on hurricane, i stand by it at the time as his filter was complete fluff and he had posted a case on a lurker which i felt was a cop out. I had since revised my read and he is town.
For the 'slam vote, i stand by my reasoning as it seemed like there had to be too many coincidences for scum to figure out who hurricane was. The odds seemed to be in Onegu's favor due to hurricane admitted (or at least implying and everyone else assuming that he visited 'slam) vs 'slam's word. Obviously i was wrong but i never saw a case on the other side that pointed out how scum figured hurricane out, i think that was the key for me.
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On June 29 2013 18:58 Onegu wrote:
So just a thought you guys have me confirmed mafia, so why not wait to lynch me doesnt it give you more info to see where my vote goes
nope you die
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On June 29 2013 12:59 StiMaDDict wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 12:55 Aquanim wrote:
If I were scum, trying to mislynch Alakaslam (who I would, as scum, know to be a townie and soon to be confirmed) would indeed be the correct play.
As town, who did not know which of the two were scum but believed that Alakaslam was scum and that Onegu would be confirmed town in that case, trying to lynch Alakaslam (who I did not know was town) is STILL the correct play. I swear.. is it just me or does Aquanim sounds like he's CHOOSING who the lynch target would be rather than actually lynching scum. It might just be me but it was like this Day1 as well. He was like, "Who should I vote, hmm... Xzavier!"
If i recall i dont think aqua had any suspicion on xzavier before his vote and it did feel retaliatory. In aqua's post where he votes for xzavier, he just posts a defense of himself and then throws a vote down at the end. It then looks like he goes back and looks at xzaviers posts to fill in the reasons for his vote. Retaliatory votes dont show alignment in my book though.
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On June 29 2013 11:10 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 11:06 FirmTofu wrote:
@Aquanim
I want your new reads. Please explain why as well. I'll have to think about association with Onegu and that might take a while, but for now this is where I'm at: Spicy: didn't commit hard to either lynch today. Still got no reasons to think he's town. Nothing much has really changed about Spicy since my read at the end of Night 1. StiMaDDict: still hasn't done jack LoneMeow: hasn't done much of anything, and vote for Alakaslam now doesn't look real good. Still pretty sure everyone else (besides Onegu, obviously) is town but I suppose I'd better take another look at everyone to be sure.
Just wanted to comment on this. I committed to lynching slam by my vote. I already posted why i thought slam would flip red more than onegu due to the number of events that needed to occur.
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@everyone, please look at the relationships between everyone, not just the individual filters.
Quick FYI: i will be traveling for the next couple of days so i will be posting from my phone.
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On June 30 2013 00:26 FirmTofu wrote:
Spicy, I asked for something very specific. I wanted your case on ONE player. Please do this. Explain why that one player is scum. Convince me of it.
You are already convinced im scum so theres no way im convincing u. My biggest scum read is on stim. Ilk post why in a separate post since Im posting from my phone.
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Case on stim.
d1 he picks aqua as a target and votes him at the very end not really affecting the vote. he blows up aquas position on nn policy and r a ils on him for the xzavier vote. What I see here is a scum on scum vote meqnt to be used later for cred in the event aqua dies. D2 stim disappears again till qn hour before the vote and claims ignorance of the situation. He fake buys his time asking questions and seeing the votes. Knowing that slam will be killed regardless of the vot3, he votes against it for town cred. Also he is actually active in the post lynch talk.... but why? Because scum only need 1 misslynch to win so hes trying hard now to get there.
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Also forgot to add something. He had a scum read on aqua d1...and then aqua has a huge post on slam is most likely scum which led to a misslynch... but he now only has a null read?? Doesnt make sense except that hes protecting him or at least not throwing him under the bus yet.
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##vote onegu
Can someone point out why my stim aqua connection is off? Is it because they voted each other?
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On June 30 2013 22:23 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2013 21:03 Spicydinosaur wrote:
##vote onegu
Can someone point out why my stim aqua connection is off? Is it because they voted each other? Day 1: Stim votes for Aqua, making it 4-4 (or possible 3 on Xz 4 on Aqua) at a time when it was very possible tat Aqua would be lynched.
and isnt that when onegu moved his vote off unexpectedly so aqua was no longer in danger.
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On June 30 2013 23:11 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 08:04 Spicydinosaur wrote:On June 29 2013 05:15 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Going through the filters, I now think I have figured out who the entire scum team is if 'Slam mislynches. I will vet it properly before I post it, but it will be ready for posting once Night Time hits. Got a list as well, though i have a feeling its not going to line up with yours. I'm still hoping that 'slam is scum and that the vote was overwhelming because of bussing. Would make this figuring out a lot easier. As for stim, im more looking forward to his explanation of the vote rather than the vote itself. Town or scum can easily be seen on either side, especially with the votes the way they are. Spicy, defend thyself.
Still posting from mobile fyi.
my play all game has been townie. Early d1 tofu and I went at it for a few pages, greatly elevating my presence in the game. If I were scum id want to blend in a lot more. Same goes with my vote on hurricane and defense of xzavier. My logic on xzavier made sense. .. why would scum play like that. And added some meta thqt convinced me he was town. I also dont like how people are slamming my hurricane vote wfter the fact when he started to finally act townie. When the vote was on him he had nothinv but fluff and then a lurker vote.
The onegu slam vote could have gone either way and I picked the one that had someone backing it up, the pick was wrong.
As for lone, I talked about him during n1 where I said he flew under the radar. Couldnt pursue anything wbout him because d2 was all about slam and onegu.
I have been a critic of onegu's vote switch and didnt feel he adequetly explained it. The fake claim threw me off because someone else backed it up.
That's why I think its stim and aqua. Onegu and aqua were going at it and then aqua posts a big case on slam. Didnt make sense other than to defend a scum buddie. Stims late game postings means he can drop a vote and sheep a town explanation. I really dont like his level of activity. Couldlonre still be scum... possible. Just reading the connections between the suspects makes a stim aqua conn3ction more likely.
Stim had a scum read on aqua after d1 and after aqua leads a lynch of a blue it drops down to a null. Just doesnt make sense.
will be at family reunion all day but will try to post when I can
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On June 30 2013 23:23 hzflank wrote:
I'll be specific.
What's your list? Why don't you think that it will line up with Hurricane's?
Why do you not care about Stim's vote? I withheld my vote because seeing where Stim put his vote is an absolutely vital piece of information.
A different list bc of stim.
the stim vote made no difference in the lynch as it was already secured. So scum stim can easily position himself on the other side for town cred knowing the misslynch went through. If he voted for the lynch he could just cit3e aquas reasoning. Its the lateness of thr vote and him asking obvious questions thqt were answered already in the thread
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Finally back after traveling 7 states. Time to catch up
On July 01 2013 19:37 hzflank wrote:
@Spicy:
If at all possible I need you to make a day 4 case against someone. Even if you can only post by phone, I do not need to see an elaborate case.
If you had to place the first vote on day 4, who would you vote for and why?
kinda late but figure its still relevant. Still would vote stim, he hasnt said anything since so nothing to really change my mind over. Though lone's case against hz is very weak, and i dont like how he hasn't named who he thinks the second scum is.
On July 01 2013 21:41 hzflank wrote:
What was your list?
stim/aqua. i still cant understand stim having a null read on aqua after he leads a lynch against slam when he had a scum read the night before. No explanation.
As for the tofu killing, i dont think it changes much at all. Everyone but me had him as townie and he was very vocal, thus making him a good target. He pegged me as scum and aqua town. So what i think you're getting at is why would a scum aqua kill him? I cant answer that as im not aqua and i can only speculate. Would be an easy way to throw more suspicion on me and use tofu's reads as a stronger guide which would lead to a mislynch.
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EPT
