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Wow. Discovery made.
Not sure if anyone has pointed this out, but here's the reason for the Aqua bandwagon:
On June 25 2013 12:49 Xzavier wrote:
This post just moved Aqua to my number 1 scum list.
##VOTE Aquanim
sry i wasnt able to go as in depth as i wanted to on alot of posts. I had like 6-7 quotes i wanted to talk about, but my brother just got home an hour earlier than i planned. T.T i WILL actually post more in the morning before i go to class.
By the way i work tomorrow so i wont be around for the vote, so my vote will be cast like 8 hours prior to the deadline. :O
If Xzavier is scum, the mafia are COMMITTED to whoever Xzavier votes for because that's who Xzavier left his vote on when he goes offline for the day. If the mafia want any sort of reactionary mobility, they're going to have to do it a man down.
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Reacting to what I just posted, the ideal mafia play if they were down a man and the Aqua bandwagon looked doomed to fail would be to switch to Stim. They'd figure I'd switch my vote, and I think FirmTofu mentioned he found Stim fishy as well. Of course, they wouldn't do this if Stim were mafia.
We're about to see some interesting play, I think.
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On June 26 2013 03:43 Xzavier wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 02:45 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Reacting to what I just posted, the ideal mafia play if they were down a man and the Aqua bandwagon looked doomed to fail would be to switch to Stim. They'd figure I'd switch my vote, and I think FirmTofu mentioned he found Stim fishy as well. Of course, they wouldn't do this if Stim were mafia.
We're about to see some interesting play, I think. IF i was scum. they would probably buss me. But since im not scum i hav no fucking clue whats aboht to happen. I work in 15 min. For 8 hours. so i get two breaks and a lunch. I promise much more activity day2. as i hav friday off. I also dont think i work tomorrow.
@Xzavier
You may not have a Day 2. If you have any scumreads (or town reads, even) you better post them now so your death will not be in vain should you flip town.
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On June 26 2013 04:00 Xzavier wrote:
Also im not posting town reads. I dont want to inject wifom.
What? If you're town and likely to be lynched, your opinion on who else is town is valuable, not WIFOM. If you were mafia, I'd understand if you were scared to tell us your Town reads in the event you die today.
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EBWOP:
@Xzavier
Read the previous two posts (one by myself one from Alakaslam)
(Xzavier requested we tag him in any posts directed at him, I assume for ease of use while browsing / posting on his phone)
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@hzflank
I just went through your filter. You're the only vote on Aqua that I can't explain. You mention yourself in the case you make on him that it's pretty weak, and you were more posting it for his benefit to refute it than as a serious post.
To be clear:
No one suspects you. Now, everyone is getting his bandwagon ready.
I'm wondering if you are still experiencing the lack of conviction on your pick, or if having people jump on board has convinced you? What is your play here?
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Sure, why not. The two immediate post-lynch scenarios as it appears likely now are:
1. Xzavier is lynched and flips scum
2. Xzavier is lynched and flips town
If he flips scum, the mafia team may have played a really primitive game and we can chase down their team fairly easily. I'd most likely continue to pursue StiM (especially if he remains inactive) and will end up most likely putting some pressure on Spicy for burning his vote on me and not really contributing to the Xzavier / Aqua bandwagon debate. If hzflank doesn't answer me during the night time, I'll make a case on him as well. (There's material there, and the silence is unnerving)
If Xzavier flips town, I still probably won't be that convinced that Aqua is scum. These two events are independent of each other in my mind. It could be that both players are Town, and the mafia were simply supporting the bandwagon on the stronger pro-town player. Aqua hasn't posted in a while, but when he does, I like what I feel from him. Depending on Alakaslam's action, he may be a person of interest in questioning.
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On June 26 2013 05:40 Chromatically wrote:
Onegu's apathy about this lynch is very bothersome to me, as town your vote is your strongest weapon and Onegu is just wasting his.
Not sure what it means until I see the flip, but not having an opinion on either of these candidates is weird.
He has an opinion. He thinks both of the current lynch candidates are scum. It's weird, but I see where he's coming from. My guess is that he's trying to establish a voting track record on who he believes is the most scummy person out there. Which happens to be neither of the current candidates. Even though he does believe they're both scum.
Huh, yeah... I guess that is weird.
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It's super weird to me that both Alakaslam and Stimaddict both made voting action with promises of more content to come and then vanished. Stim voted Aqua (in a rather ill-timed post) with literally no reasoning, and Alakaslam unvoted Aqua and then made some kind of moon-eyes at Xzavier. Pretty baffling plays.
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[QUOTE]On June 26 2013 06:00 FirmTofu wrote:
[QUOTE]On June 26 2013 05:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
[QUOTE]On June 26 2013 05:40 Chromatically wrote:
Onegu's apathy about this lynch is very bothersome to me, as town your vote is your strongest weapon and Onegu is just wasting his.
Not sure what it means until I see the flip, but not having an opinion on either of these candidates is weird.[/QUOTE]
He has an opinion. He thinks both of the current lynch candidates are scum. It's weird, but I see where he's coming from. My guess is that he's trying to establish a voting track record on who he believes is the most scummy person out there. Which happens to be neither of the current candidates. Even though he does believe they're both scum.
Huh, yeah... I guess that is weird.[/QUOTE]
Apathy is a sign of defeatist scum trying to win back the town's favor. Initially, he was very pro-lynching Aqua, now he is apathetic with a fairly low amount of developments?
[QUOTE]
Scummy see, scummy do.
Onegu might just be more scummy than Spicy at this point for me. That's quite a turnaround.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE][B]On June 26 2013 05:40 Chromatically wrote:
Onegu's apathy about this lynch is very bothersome to me, as town your vote is your strongest weapon and Onegu is just wasting his.
Not sure what it means until I see the flip, but not having an opinion on either of these candidates is weird.[/QUOTE]
Right, but Spicy is burning his vote in much the same manner. If anything, Spicy's actions should be viewed as at least as scummy at this point in time.
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EBWOP: GOD DAMMIT my first broken BBCode. My bad.
TL:DR Spicy is wasting his vote just like Onegu is. Why would Onegu be MORE scummy at this point?
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Fair enough. I'm just keeping an eye on Spicy because he really flew off the handle at me early when I linked him and Xzavier on really weak evidence, and then decided to come after me with a lynch case.
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On June 26 2013 09:49 Spicydinosaur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 09:27 Chromatically wrote:Your case on Sponge? I have Sponge (and you) as strong town. I didn't much like Sponge's early game policy stuff either, but his recent posting is really townie. Look at page 2-3 of his filter particularly. He's freely offering opinions, posting a lot, interacting with others in a very townie way. Your case only looks at his early posting, but look at his recent posting, because that's where the towniness is. When I said "my case on Xzav", I meant this one: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417692¤tpage=25#495Has everyone read this?I'm getting the feeling that it was missed. I dont like the vote for the lurker as it seemed an easy cop out. Then his switch to xzavier doesnt help as i think xzavier isnt scum. He has picked up commenting about cases a lot more, but that's to be expected when accused. There was a huge shift in his play style before and after my vote on him. Perhaps he became more active to push the mislynch? I honestly dont know but looking at his filter it just feels scummy. And your new case didnt really add anything new, just commented on xzaviers posts. At this point xzavier is going to be lynched barring some big last minute vote switches.
For the record my 'huge shift in playstyle' had nothing to do with you. I was unable to post yesterday, and I am East Coast, so I posted my big case as soon as I woke up. It is unfortunate timing, but if you look at the time stamps, you'll see you had nothing to do with my posting. In addition, as I'm not going to be lynched today, barring a mafia NK on me, you'll see that I will maintain this level of activity for the rest of the game. Keep an open mind to new information, my friend. A tunnel is a terrible thing to waste.
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Both of the confirmed townies (see: dead) have stated support for Xzavier and suspicion of Aqua. Spicy also briefly mentioned that he was "not convinced on the aqua vote either and ill post my thoughts on that later", and was the most visible supporter of Xzavier. However, either I can't find those thoughts, or he never got the follow-up out because it was the opener to his Case against yours truly.
@Spicy
Do you feel like elaborating on your thoughts about Aqua now, or are they no longer relevant / valid?
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On June 26 2013 12:15 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 11:51 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Both of the confirmed townies (see: dead) have stated support for Xzavier and suspicion of Aqua. Spicy also briefly mentioned that he was "not convinced on the aqua vote either and ill post my thoughts on that later", and was the most visible supporter of Xzavier. However, either I can't find those thoughts, or he never got the follow-up out because it was the opener to his Case against yours truly.
@Spicy
Do you feel like elaborating on your thoughts about Aqua now, or are they no longer relevant / valid? O.O Can I do nothing right. Now I see how scummy ^^ looks (I mean my post.) Feh! What am I worried about. My Lynch would give town a lot of confusion though. Not good. I get a strong feeling Mafia are actually pretty active this game, kind of puppetmastering and doing a good job of it. They've got me so far XD No case for the above? Well, it's because of my general feeling based on the whole thread. A lot of people accusing with weak cases or, like me, just avoiding accusing because they're worried their case will be weak (which is in itself scummy in a way- that worry). You know? Really, I'm just very new and very wishy washy. Feel free to ask me stuff, I'll see it on my spare time and I'll try to answer. A lot of stuff I've done I have done to try to be a sideline resource to town. I haven't the best of skill at reading people anywhere, but one thing I can do is tell the truth and navigate TL. So ask me, try to entrap me and make me guilty worse than I am. I need some Town confirmation if I'm going to be useful, and that is the only way I can think of to confirm myself town. Otherwise, please just lynch me. + Show Spoiler + "After all, you just lynched two townies with me. I'm CONFIRMED red, aren't I? So I'd be one less KP when gone" If everyone thinks I'm scum, I'm just dead-weight because nobody believes me. So even scumreads from me become spam, and useless fluff. Has anyone actually considered the motivation behind my filter? I know why I look scummy, heck you guys convinced me (lol). So, I ask you. How do I fix that? What is at my disposal to help town? I thought towniness was any effort to aid town, not YOU MUST SCUMREAD THAT IS ONLY AID TO TOWN AND NO SHEEPING BRO, IF YOU DON'T KNOW HOW TO USE YOUR VOTE AT ANY GIVEN TIME BECAUSE YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT + Show Spoiler + what I just did with most of us. mind you, because trying to read scum less carefully... . If that is actually true, then expect me to suck in the future. I will be a quick lynch. + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=301748 I haven't followed this because I got nutzy after people said I was lurking. Like on page 11. "You don’t have to be a super-active poster to prove your innocence or be useful to the town." WELL AREN'T I A CLASS-A EXAMPLE OF THAT TRUTH. Rather, I have been disobeying "Don’t babble. If you speak without having a clear goal in mind, you impede the town and decrease everyone else’s productivity. This paralyzes town analysis and decision-making and allows mafia to hide in the chaos."
Not sure why you quoted me, but I just went through your whole filter. On a scale of Scum-to-Townie, I'd put you as a solid 'Potato'. I tried following your train of thought, and it damn near gave me a headache. If you can post thoughts in a much more concise manner from here on out, I'd consider it a personal favor.
You seem to be asking for homework, so I will give you some:
You associated yourself early with Onegu, even declaring that you would donate your vote to him to use as he pleased. What are your thoughts on him at this moment in light of his attitude toward how the the Day 1 lynch was shaping up late in the day? (Go read his filter. You do not have to respond in the next 10 seconds.)
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On June 25 2013 01:09 Alakaslam wrote:
Voting is requested! I will bandwagon out of bitterness until I see a really good defense. Not so much against the bbcode error (that would be hypocritical) but against... Baseless lurker accusations at the start of day 1!
See how I roll? Am I going to make those accusations? Maybe (I'm kind of doing just that) but in this case, it's because he already has a vote, and I am thinking of helping a bandwagon.
I WANT firm to show up as town, I am super nervous about mislynching! But I need to make a case it seems, and this is what I got because frankly I don't see any great cases yet.
##Vote: FirmTofu
Out because work
@Alakaslam
I also need you to tell me what is wrong with this post. (Class, don't help him.)
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On June 26 2013 12:29 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 09:49 Spicydinosaur wrote:On June 26 2013 09:27 Chromatically wrote:Your case on Sponge? I have Sponge (and you) as strong town. I didn't much like Sponge's early game policy stuff either, but his recent posting is really townie. Look at page 2-3 of his filter particularly. He's freely offering opinions, posting a lot, interacting with others in a very townie way. Your case only looks at his early posting, but look at his recent posting, because that's where the towniness is. When I said "my case on Xzav", I meant this one: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417692¤tpage=25#495Has everyone read this?I'm getting the feeling that it was missed. I dont like the vote for the lurker as it seemed an easy cop out. Then his switch to xzavier doesnt help as i think xzavier isnt scum. He has picked up commenting about cases a lot more, but that's to be expected when accused. There was a huge shift in his play style before and after my vote on him. Perhaps he became more active to push the mislynch? I honestly dont know but looking at his filter it just feels scummy. And your new case didnt really add anything new, just commented on xzaviers posts. At this point xzavier is going to be lynched barring some big last minute vote switches. Spicy, work with sponge please. This will lead to town victory. You two (and Onegu) are the most clearheaded in the thread so far, and you've both been right in the face of bandwagon. Learning, learning....
We don't know if I was right until StiM flips. And that's not likely at this point because he's doing exactly what he needed to do to get me to drop my case on him (assuming he follows his M.O. and posts a ton of Pro-Town Day 2 stuff like he did in XLII).
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@FirmTofu
Does this exonerate Alakaslam in your mind? (Onegu seemed to have the idea of planting the seeds for a Day 2 Alakaslam lynch)
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EBWOP: Or, for that matter, Aqua?
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Just putting out there for the record that StiM has once again vanished into the void. I have to revise my case on him, but it seems I won't have to entirely scrap it.
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EPT
