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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On June 08 2013 11:18 Oatsmaster wrote: you are fucking awful if you think im scum. What useful stuff do you suggest? your reads. Everyone else wants to kill one of you. You have a red check, it makes more sense to lynch you than Ace. Bite me. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On June 08 2013 11:25 Oatsmaster wrote: It makes more sense to read the thread, and see that I am obviously the more townie out of me and Ace. Not going. "Red check, dont care bye guys." Reads about who? There are 3 mafia and 10 townies. If you are one of the townies then your goal is to identify and lynch the 3 mafia. So far you have 1/3. If you think all i have said is "red check don't care bye guys" then i guess it's my turn to call you fucking awful. You are fucking awful. Isn't it nice when we are so pleasant to each other? | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On June 08 2013 12:42 jaybrundage wrote: Well if it works for me don't fix i say. If i can use my badness to attract mafia to target me. Then i should do that. And if another townie sees this happening and comes in to stop a mislynch. Then they are prolly town and i can use that information. Regardless I'm town this game. But I believe you my friend are not. How about you do something layabout. And say who you think is scum outside of Ace/Oats. Also who's your biggest town read. I am not telling mafia who my biggest townread is. That's dumb. I would rather see another flip before i push scumreads in thread. You can only lynch 1 person at a time and it's not going to be me. Also there are currently 3 mafia players alive. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On June 08 2013 16:51 Oatsmaster wrote: I dont like this sentence. I dont know why. Ace, can you explain what risk is involved fake claiming a red check that turns out green? If mafia get cop the next night one of them can claim a green check or if the player that fake claimed gets miller and is checked then they will get a green check and the claimer can probably dodge the lynch. If town gets cop and gets a red check then that player they they will get lynched. If somebody other than that player is checked town will lynch the claimer since miller is unlikely. It's a total gamble that favors town but the odds for mafia aren't all that bad but it involves a bunch of conditional probability and i am not sure how the rng works. It should be about 30% for mafia 70% for town (taking P(not mafia cop)=10/13 P(Claimer doesn't get miller)=11/12) | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On June 08 2013 22:16 Vivax wrote: Layabout, are you suggesting lynching outside of Ace/Oats and then get a town cop to check one of them? No i am explaining the risk for mafia fake-claiming since it's not as bad as Ace is telling us it is. I would have preferred if we had done that earlier on but that's actually a terrible idea. I think there would be more value in a check on someone else. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On June 08 2013 22:25 JarJarDrinks wrote: OK, but I feel like a an Oats/Sent team is kinda unlikely and Sent is just blatently scum right now. I'd still rather Lynch Oats than you for all the reasons I've already said. But I;d rather Lynch Sent than either of you Ace, you do realize that is Oats flips green, you're autolynched tomorrow. The cop isn't gonna waste a check on you. I really don't like how you're already making contingency plans for a town flip. If we're planning on wasting a copcheck on you in the case of a mislynch, it makes more sense to not lynch you or Oats today and wait till we get results back. This is why I think we should lynch Sent today. An unlucky miller check basically means we lose 6 townies before we get back to the game. We should lynch Sent cause he's scum, have the cop check Ace tonight, and lynch one of Ace/Oats tomorrow. But if we do that then: If we mislynch today and mafia get cop or Ace get miller then we are boned. If ace is mafia they can give him a green check (or if he gets godfather) and then we follow the check and flip Oats. In this scenario Oats is going to be green and we are at lylo, we then lynch ace but remain at lylo. If ace is town they can give him a red check (or if he gets miller) we then lynch Ace who flips town. We are at lylo with a red check on Oats the chance of him being town miller and 3 mafia alive. Again this assumes no saves but i think a single save would still put us at lylo. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
If we don't get a green check then we aren't going to start playing mafia again for a long time. Just mindless boring shitty follow the cop claim we can't trust. If Ace has made this play as mafia then it was a bad play and it can only work if he gets lucky with the odds stacked against him. If Ace is town then we have been horribly screwed by the rng but that is a part of the game. But i would rather lose to rng than by assuming mafia are bad. So roll the dice and check Ace. Odds are we have cop and he isn't miller/gf. + Does anybody even want another red check? | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
kita ace's play is consistent and makes sense as town. In order for him to be scum you have to assume that he has taken silly risks (copcheck on Oats) that he didn't need to take. I would rather pick the scenario that makes more sense and that is with Ace being town. If Ace is town the best thing to do is check him to stop a mislynch. If Ace is scum then checking him should confirm that. There is a risk associated with checking him but that cannot be helped. But i would rather we take it than mislynch and have only day1 where people had to justify their votes beyond it being the perceived optimal play because of a check. + Show Spoiler + have stolen a laptop i have access for 10 mins or so | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On June 10 2013 04:47 Ace wrote: kita, Wos here is a simple question: assume I am Scum. Why would I be begging you to check me for 2 days ahead of time to prove my innocence? Because you are taking a risk that has a potentially huge payoff | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On June 10 2013 04:55 Ace wrote: right, but I would have needed to get lucky 2 nights in a row and setup Oats ahead of time. Without checking me we mislynch and get up to 8 Town deaths and lylo. Which one seems like the smarter option here? You don't have to tell ME? wait 8? | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
if ace is town the ONLY WAY TO AVOID A MISLYNCH WOULD BE TO CHECK HIM if he is town YOU INSURE THAT WE MISLYNCH TODAY AND SCUM KEEP 2 KP | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
Too mad right now. I am disappointed in all of you. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On June 10 2013 10:47 VayneAuthority wrote: dumb posts like this make me assume town but I don't know if I should. At least he has inno on him. That's about the most unlikely scumteam I can think of. Did you even read any posts after the night post? Why would I potentially save town as scum? Why would sent continually try to get me lynched throughout this entire game? How does kita come into all of this? Does anyone else see this as a completely asinine post don't call me dumb. don't ask me to explain stuff Mr "he isn't the mafia power role i swear, reasons? shit! errr.... gutread " | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On June 10 2013 11:02 VayneAuthority wrote: haha if you're still on day 1 buddy you might as well find yourself a replacement, completely useless. fuck you and your awful playstyle. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
Ace had a role a player i am 95%* sure is town had cop and instead of clearing things up or helping me to find mafia i get to find out that i am green. + Show Spoiler [*] + arbitrary high number | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + i am traveling today | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
##vote mkfuba07 | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On June 10 2013 08:06 prplhz wrote: i roleblocked vivax On June 10 2013 08:06 prplhz wrote: i think it's more likely that vivax is scum than that scum hit something that was docced On June 10 2013 08:25 VayneAuthority wrote: and cop claimed so I will now. I was doctor and I was on WaveofShadow. So either Vivax is scum or WaveofShadow is town, or both. points to anybody who figures out what these posts are missing | ||
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