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@Vivax:
One problem I have with the reasoning in a) is that I don't feel like any scum is ever all too afraid of bussing oats right from the start. He's a hard read D1, and is also (I feel) oftentimes an unlikely lynch D1 because of that very fact. I'd have to take a closer look at how sent was pushing oats, but if it's just "his case on ace is ridic" then it's nothing that I'm sure most of the people here weren't thinking before sent said it himself. Because of this, I don't think scum oats excludes scum sent.
As glad as I am that there's a lot of discussion going on (I have excuses for not participating up to this point, but I'll leave them out unless someone really wants to hear them), I don't see myself voting for someone other than ace or oats today. The likelihood of these two players being town and getting the exact roles that would put us in this situation given their previous interaction is negligible, imo. Therefore, at least one of them is scum. Oats seems most likely to me, given that it would be silly for ace to fakeclaim and expect "guess he was miller" to get him off the hook. I agree that if ace did fakeclaim, it's more significant than a 1-for-1 trade, but it's still a pretty big swap.
##Vote: Oatsmaster
I've been asleep for a pretty long while, and I'm gonna go get food now. I also might have plans in a few hours, so I'll disappear again for a bit. Please tell me if there's anything in particular you want me to think about/look at/consider, since my time will be mostly focusing on oats/ace. In addition to being the most likely place to find scum, I feel that will give us the most to go off of going into D3.
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Well... that was quite possibly my least expected flip ever...
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On June 09 2013 08:14 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
Oh wait he got lynched...
lol
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Yeah, sorry about that. Apparently most of my motivation to post is typically not getting mislynched, otherwise I'd just spend my time reading and thinking. The fact that many consider(ed?) me confirmed town made me really lazy. That, on top of the necessary Ace lynch today (as well as what I expected to be a guaranteed scum lynch yesterday) kinda wrecked me. Not really excuses, I know, but at the very least explanations.
In any case, I'll be spending the next few hours (possibly all hours up to the lynch) getting better acquainted with the thread.
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Oh, I forgot (not that it matters)
##Vote: Ace
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Wow, nice.
Looks like we're waiting for cop to claim. I wasn't anything (afaik).
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Sorry, I don't like to gamble.
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So who's the doctor? And where's Sent?
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And who got roleblocked?
Oh... Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
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Yeah, sorry. I was doc, and I protected kita last night.
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As much as I'd like to think that I saved kita tonight (maybe I would have, but who knows), I believe the RBs blocked scum both nights. I'm gonna go through the thread again to double check, but everything I've remembered/checked out seems to fit pretty well. It looks like Vivax is the preferred lynch of the two at the moment, so I'll go with him.
##Vote: Vivax
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I'd like to solve the puzzle, Pat.
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Yes, I narrowed it down to feeling pretty confident in scum sentinel (reasoning has been given by just about every dead townie in the game, as well as many of those still alive), and a few people I didn't feel particularly confident were town. Among them were vivax, prplhz, and stutters (actually, I'm pretty sure that's all of them). As the events following the day post unfolded, a scenario developed in my head involving scum sentinel and scum vivax that seems to fit perfectly. Essentially, the way things happened in the game make sense given this scumteam.
Admittedly, I may just really want myself to be right. That's why I said I was going to reread the thread (probably just certain parts of it, it's kinda long), to make sure it still fits. Gotta get some sleep now, though.
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On June 14 2013 09:40 jaybrundage wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2013 08:23 layabout wrote:
lynchlist:
prplhz
sentinel
vivax
kitaman
mkfuba
also didn't most if not all of fuba's towncred come from Ace attributing the rayne lynch to him? Fuba has been laying low just relaxing in the town cred that Ace (a scum mind you) gave him. I can see him being scum his contribution is close to replacement material. Incorrect.
My own actions gave me town cred, or you wouldn't have accepted it in the first place. My own actions have also taken some of it away. Ace had nothing to do with my contributions to the rayn lynch other than announcing me as "confirmed town" afterwards, something that I would have honestly assumed was going through most peoples' heads at that point. It's an easy thing to do as scum to not only appear to be giving the game thought, but also to cast shadows on someone in the future.
Back to the game, I'm not so sure about vivax anymore. Sentinel remains the most likely to flip scum based on play alone, imo. A vivax and sentinel scumteam makes sense to me going off of night actions, but vivax's play D1 makes me feel less confident about scum vivax, and particularly that pair together. prplhz seems considerably more likely, but I'm only on page 29 at the moment.
To explain my thoughts last night:
The most recent claims made me really suspicious about vivax, because he certainly appeared reluctant to post his role and the results of his check. Not only how long it took for him to post in the first place, but that neither he nor sentinel had posted in the thread at all at the time. On top of that, his whole "guess who and what" game reeked of fishing for information. My thoughts were that if these two were scum together, then they were trying to decide who should claim the role, who they should claim they checked, and what the results should be. This isn't something scum can do in advance. They need to know who the power roles are so they know who they can fake-check and still be safe. The fact that the end result was a green check on sentinel, the *only* person that scum vivax could trust to not be a power role, compounded these suspicions. Then I considered that vivax was roleblocked one night with a missing NK, and then sentinel was roleblocked the next night with a missing NK, and it spiraled out from there. It also makes sense why vivax would have had one KP N2, and Sentinel would have the KP N3. All of these things fit together so perfectly to me.
It still feels instinctively right... But it also somewhat ignores the possibility of WoS or kita being the NK targets during those nights. Naturally, both of them were potential NK targets, or I wouldn't have protected kita last night. But I also feel like with that scumteam, they would go for "sure thing" NKs, not ones that could potentially be protected. Essentially, I feel that it makes more sense to believe that scum was roleblocked (assuming the blocker is trustworthy and the blockee was suspicious) than to trust that the doctor picked the right scum target that night. In any case, I think I'm caught in some light circular logic when it comes to this last paragraph, but it does fit within the scenario I've stated above.
All of that being said... based on play alone (as of my reread through page 29, as well as my previous feelings regarding these players), I'd rather lynch sentinel>prplhz>vivax. This, combined with my claim theory, puts sentinel as my preferred lynch today.
##Unvote
##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel
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I see your point kita... Gah, I'm just more confident in sent being scum than either of these two. I agree that if we're not lynching sent, then they're definitely the two to look at, though. I'm going to continue my reading when I get lunch in a little bit.
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On June 08 2013 04:28 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
##unvote
##vote: VayneAuthority
This vote makes the most sense for me. Oats might be miller and Ace might be cop. Who knows. But Vayne is definitely scum. This vote makes the most sense for me.
Was going through the thread (on page 43 currently) and this caught my eye. The bolded strikes me as really scummy. As town, you're considering multiple scenarios. You're not considering whether Ace is cop because to town Ace was cop. The entire bolded portion is from a scum perspective. He only mentions oats being town and getting miller, and he only considers whether Ace is cop (a possibility that should only be considered by scum, since they can pretty much trade roles around).
I am really, really comfortable with my vote where it is. I'm not sure which of vivax or prplhz would flip scum, but sentinel is pretty much confirmed for me.
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On June 15 2013 02:34 Stutters695 wrote:
Lynch vivax first. If he flips scum we know his claim is worthless and sent is probably scum. If he's town then we're looking at the odds of him getting gf compared to just scummy town play.
It's not "just scummy town play" though. It's multiple instances of what I would consider significant scumslips (much like the one that we pinned rayn for). It's almost every dead townie having a scumread on him, and telling us to lynch him. Sure, they didn't have all of the information we do at the moment, but slOosh (who actually made the first case on rayn imo) was right about rayn (and died the first night), and oats was right about Ace (as well as being suspicious of sent), even though most of the people here thought there wasn't enough to go on. I wouldn't be surprised if zephirdd said something particularly key about the other members of the scumteam which got him killed early. It's the general scumminess the entire game, in addition to what I mentioned above and a slight bump from the fact that I consider roleblocking from a trusted source more likely to be successful than a doc save from a trusted source.
Oh, and keep in mind that if we kill scum today, we're both more likely to get power roles (roleblocker, specifically) as well as roleblock the correct person to stop a NK. While I was willing before to go with either vivax or sentinel, this realization as well as my current read through the thread have made me more confident in my sent read, less confident in my vivax read, and more insistent upon which of these we lynch first.
Some other slightly off-topic thoughts:
+ Show Spoiler +Something else I've been pondering is that Ace may have mentioned me as the only one confirmed town so that slOosh or WoS were "guaranteed" unprotected the first night. As I said, slOosh was confirmed town for me, since he brought up a legitimate scumslip on the scum power role. Scum would have been aware of this right when he first mentioned it. Ace certainly was, but he attributed it to me instead of slOosh. He tried to leave WoS out of it, but WoS brought himself back in. WoS as one of the drivers of the rayn wagon and a potential town leader would have been a good NK target, but it wasn't "safe" to shoot him after he asserted his town status.
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On June 15 2013 02:49 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2013 02:28 mkfuba07 wrote:On June 08 2013 04:28 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
##unvote
##vote: VayneAuthority
This vote makes the most sense for me. Oats might be miller and Ace might be cop. Who knows. But Vayne is definitely scum. This vote makes the most sense for me. Was going through the thread (on page 43 currently) and this caught my eye. The bolded strikes me as really scummy. As town, you're considering multiple scenarios. You're not considering whether Ace is cop because to town Ace was cop. The entire bolded portion is from a scum perspective. He only mentions oats being town and getting miller, and he only considers whether Ace is cop (a possibility that should only be considered by scum, since they can pretty much trade roles around). I am really, really comfortable with my vote where it is. I'm not sure which of vivax or prplhz would flip scum, but sentinel is pretty much confirmed for me. I considered both, which is why, instead of voting for Ace or Oats depending on who I thought was more scummy, I decided to go with my primary scumread of Vayne.
It's not what you did, since I assume you tried to consider all scenarios as either alignment. It's what you actually said. Just like oats pointed out before, you're posting from the perspective of someone who already knew who was going to flip what. Your comment about Ace, that he might be cop, isn't even something that townies were considering. Of course he's cop, he claimed it in a game where fakeclaims would instantly implicate you as scum. It's whether or not he was scum that we were thinking about. What at first appears to be an off the cuff comment about how unsure you are of which of the two should be lynched (as either alignment) actually shows you being concerned with something that no townie was actually concerned about.
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On June 15 2013 03:17 WaveofShadow wrote:
Fuba I wish you posted more often.
That analysis realy strikes a chord with me and tbh I'm pretty sure you removed all doubt from mind as to your alignment.
Either that or you're experienced scum? I don't know your history on the forum so I don't really know that. Whatever if you are scum then gg.
I realized just now I'm going to have to vote before the end of the day because I won't be around at deadline and my trouble is based on posting alone it doesn't seem to make sense that Vivax is scum.
I know it's probably the more correct move to hit Vivax before Sent but lynching based on blue role stuff hasn't done us great thus far this game.
I know what I did, and I RBed Sent last night, there was no NK. His posting has been worse than godawful for most of the game. I'm going to take a gamble here.
##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel
My first game on TL was a scum game, and it had to be remade before 48 hours had passed. Aside from that, I don't actually have any experience being mafia. Fun fact about that game: I think it's actually the earliest that I've ever made a case on anyone.
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EPT
