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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
First off, Ace's "if Oats flips town you can cop check me" idea is absolutely terrible. If oats flips town then we lynch Ace and use the cop check on a player who know don't already know the alignment of.
1:1 trade is deceiving in name. It's really 1 mafia in exchange for two wasted cycles of discussion, a mislynch, and an extra kp by preserving the mafia numbers.
10v3 would end up as 6v2, assuming no saves, although saves are pretty likely in this setup. Speaking of the setup, I think a shorter game definitely benefits mafia and mafia do appear to be playing the numbers game based on the night hits.
From a mafia perspective, in Ace's position, I would only make the fake claim if I deemed the upcoming cycle to be doomed from the start, whether it be the top two mafia candidates being scum or the top scum candidate being unquestionably lynched. 6v2 gives the mafia a fighting chance, but 9v2 is pretty much over.
I hate that Ace is the one providing the check, but I think a cop check is a sub-optimal mafia strategy from his current position. If I were a mafia Ace, I'd go for the mislynch this cycle and pull shenanigans on day three if the opportunity were available. If he is indeed offering himself up in a poor exchange, then I suppose we take it and go into day four in a good position.
If I had a town read on Oats, I might reconsider, but with him flopping from Sent to prpl and then considering for a moment that someone other than Ace should be lynched,
##Vote: Oatsmaster
I do question in what world Ace considers being afk as a viable defense. If you're busy, yet still signed up for the game, give up some sleep if you have to. I'm quite willing to switch back to Ace if he doesn't provide a scum read outside of a cop check on Oats. As a town cop, he certainly has put no effort into establishing his credibility and he needs to comment on other individuals.
Oats, I'd suggest you provide as many reads as possible. Calling people scum in caps doesn't count. Maybe you can sway me.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 07 2013 23:31 Oatsmaster wrote:
I dont think prp is currently scum, sent scumslipped so there's that too. Ace/Sent wouldve probably been discussion topics, and now its Ace and me.
Could you explain why prpl is town and why sent is scum (outside of a slip?). Also, a guess regarding the 4th suspect and a case would be helpful. Thoughts about layabout?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 07 2013 23:31 Oatsmaster wrote:
Why are you so dense?
Mostly because said that you hated me. That really, really hurt 
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 07 2013 23:48 Stutters695 wrote:
Absence isn't a scum tell on its own.
I think you have to treat continued absence as a scum tell, otherwise it establishes a policy that it's fine to disappear without consequence.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 06 2013 10:10 layabout wrote:
jarjar, vayne and sent look bad but i will go over all that stuff tomorrow
Do you still plan to go over jarjar and vayne or have you changed your mind?
Also, Vivax has been very forgettable, does anyone have a strong opinion on him?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 08 2013 00:48 WaveofShadow wrote:
Ohai guise. I back.
Random thought before I begin hardcore diving for the day.
What if scum got cop (not necessarily Ace, but whatev), checked town Oats for whatever reason, and just happened to get miller back?
This sets up a really good situation for them where a risky claim might lead to a miller lynch and a near town confirmation for a scum.
Unlikely I know, but it might explain why Ace would attempt the trade....because if the above is true there would be no trade.
Make of that what you will. Time to filter dive.
#Wave'sconspiracytheories
There is no way to distinguish between a scum fake claim and a scum cop checking a miller. Oats would flip town (not miller) either way and Ace would get lynched the next day.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 08 2013 02:06 Oatsmaster wrote:
Kita, thoughts on huge post a few pages back where I say reads that arent Ace?
You deserve a sticker.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 08 2013 02:25 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2013 02:21 kitaman27 wrote:On June 08 2013 02:06 Oatsmaster wrote:
Kita, thoughts on huge post a few pages back where I say reads that arent Ace? You deserve a sticker. can you use your considerable influence to change the tide of this lynch?
Generally I don't make a habit of convincing people to vote against me, but I'll consider it because of the <3.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
By the way Oats, have you drawn any conclusions based on how anyone has reacted to the claim? Do you find it more scummy for a player to side with Ace in the majority or you in the minority?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 08 2013 03:57 VayneAuthority wrote:
Im pretty much confirmed town after rayne flipped red, anyone pushing on me reminds me of goodkarma from the les mis game, except im goodkarma this game.
If you feel that you are confirmed town, why were you running around like your head was cut off last night referencing non-existent vig shots?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
If Ace doesn't start posting, I'm canceling the NBA finals. Don't test me! (Me and Stern former scum buddies),
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 08 2013 04:05 WaveofShadow wrote:
Regarding layabout: His thoughts have basically coincided with mine all game. I have absolutely no reason to think he is scum right now above other people.
layabout's only real read is that Sent is scum, which conflicts with your own view. I'm not following your train of thought.
I'm confused by layabout's reluctance to lynch into Ace/Oats, refusing to acknowledge that the kp is reduced with a mafia lynch. He shared multiple STRONG town reads on Ace prior to the cop claim, so it appears that his only reluctance is that both Ace and Oats are town. With a 8/9 chance of Oats not being a town Miller, he wants to lynch into a large pool players likely containing only two scum. A future check has an even better chance of getting impacted by the godfather/miller, a night hit, or a mafia cop.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 08 2013 05:01 WaveofShadow wrote:He gave a reason for his switch onto Ace. Read it.
It's not a very good reason however.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 08 2013 05:09 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2013 05:02 kitaman27 wrote:On June 08 2013 05:01 WaveofShadow wrote:On June 08 2013 04:59 JarJarDrinks wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote Sentinel He gave a reason for his switch onto Ace. Read it. It's not a very good reason however. So you don't agree with Vivax?
On June 08 2013 01:18 Vivax wrote:
Now, imagine Oats is scum and Sentinel too. That doesn't really fit, right? Sentinel has been pushing Oats throughout D1, then he added Vayne and prplhz as his scumreads, and ace revealed the cop check, and Sentinel thinks "Oh well two scummers are on another scummers' wagon so ace is scum", and Oats can't be scum.
I think the alternative to this argument is that Sent's scum reads aren't actually legitimate and he is willing to push whatever doesn't lead to the dreaded 10v2 scenario.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
I'd double check your numbers layabout
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
If Ace doesn't post tonight, I think I'd switch over to him.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 08 2013 08:26 Stutters695 wrote:
Kita what do you think about that meta read?
More an observation than a read in my opinion. I wouldn't put much value into it one way or the other.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Ace, you defending yourself and trying to argue with the player you have a red check on is incredibly uninteresting.
Could you share your thoughts about who we should lynch tomorrow, beyond a couple one liners of suspicion?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 09 2013 02:02 WaveofShadow wrote:
Not to mention the imp of the perverse just stuck his 3-pronged fork into my prefrontal cortex saying, "hey! What if Ace and Oats are both scum and this really is just one megascumplay.
That would be the best scenario. Guaranteed 10v2 with all this blues? I'd take it in a heartbeat.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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EPT
