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On May 24 2013 09:08 Dandel Ion wrote: Except that it's wrong and it isn't.
But you prefer not to search and find mafia while having a 50:50 chance to outright lose the game to boot.
Meh, it's your town. Do what you want with it.
Try to disprove it if it's wrong. Here's a clue - you can't.
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On May 24 2013 09:09 VayneAuthority wrote: Also WoS and marv's posting from after this kill are extremely suspicious, WoS is up more on my scumdar and marv is breaking into it right now. I think I might need to reconsider this.
Why is marv pushing so hard for this lynch? Is he part of a 4 man mafia team trying to end game us right now?
Why is WoS dumbtelling?
If you read my posts it should be pretty clear.
Also BH calling me 100% town, iamp calling me certain town, yada yada yada.
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Do the maths yourself, Vayne.
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On May 24 2013 09:12 VayneAuthority wrote:I did and I pride myself on percentage play which is why I won't be changing my vote. Kudos if you're mafia though.
Ok. So if you did the maths yourself you know why I'm pushing this lynch. Silly boy
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On May 24 2013 09:12 Dandel Ion wrote:Show nested quote +On May 24 2013 09:10 marvellosity wrote:On May 24 2013 09:08 Dandel Ion wrote: Except that it's wrong and it isn't.
But you prefer not to search and find mafia while having a 50:50 chance to outright lose the game to boot.
Meh, it's your town. Do what you want with it. Try to disprove it if it's wrong. Here's a clue - you can't. All I see is "I don't care if I could autolose the game I need CONTROL! CONTROOOOOOOL"
I see. So you can't disprove the airtight argument that for your own wincon you need to shoot town tomorrow to have a chance at a win/draw.
Good stuff dandel.
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On May 24 2013 09:13 VayneAuthority wrote:Show nested quote +On May 24 2013 09:12 marvellosity wrote:On May 24 2013 09:12 VayneAuthority wrote:On May 24 2013 09:11 marvellosity wrote: Do the maths yourself, Vayne. I did and I pride myself on percentage play which is why I won't be changing my vote. Kudos if you're mafia though. Ok. So if you did the maths yourself you know why I'm pushing this lynch. Silly boy  Yea I am just saying that it makes sense for you from both a town and mafia perspective lol, while other people wrote you off as sure town no one gets a free pass from me
Of course. Fair enough.
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ok Dandel. Good luck floundering on my iron logic <3
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The gk roleblock is... interesting.
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I'd have expected mafia to roleblock the Serial Killer. Which by Dandel's reactions was clearly him after Blazing's lynch (as mafia would know he's not one of them)
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On May 24 2013 21:55 JarJarDrinks wrote:OK, I get that everyone respects and listens to marv, but I think he's wrong here. Lynching the SK is a bad play. If we lynch DL then we're crossing our fingers that there's only 3 scum. Otherwise we lose to the NK. Now marv already acknowledged that in his analysis. Show nested quote +On May 24 2013 06:57 marvellosity wrote: If it's 5-4-1, we have two options:
1) lynch SK, we lose immediately to the nightkill 2) lynch mafia, when after nightkills it would be either 4-1-1 (where we can lynch the SK) or 3-2-1, where the game is out of our hands Now first off this math is wrong. After nightkills it doesn't go to 4-1-1 or 3-2-1. It goes to 4-2-1 or 3-3-1. But I don't even think that's what would happen, for 2 reasons: 1. I don't think DL can afford to shoot town and risk it going to 3-3-1. That gives way too much power to mafia and he almost surely can't win. I think he either has to shoot mafia or not shoot @ all 2. Wouldn't mafia shoot @ DL? They don't really differentiate between non-scum. Doesn't it make sense that they shoot @ the guy who has KP and will almost surely not get protection? And then like marv said, if it's 6-3-1 then we're fine either way. The only issue is that we have to be pretty positive that we're lynching scum today. That's the only way we guarantee that we don't lose the game on this lynch.
Serial Killers on TL often have at least a one-shot bulletproof protection. I don't see why the SK would be defenceless here.
And again, if there were 4 mafia and we killed mafia (5-4-1 -> 5-3-1) then mafia would shoot at town for aforementioned likely bulletproof reason (so 4-3-1) and then SK is forced to shoot at town otherwise a 4-2-1 situation arises where town gets to lynch the SK for free.
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The game is over at 3-3-1, for town at least. The fact the game goes on does not equate to town having any chance of actually winning.
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do you have a 100% mafia lynch s0lstice?
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s0lstice actually has a point though. maybe my thought process was wrong
*grumbles about maths n shit*
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On May 24 2013 22:52 s0Lstice wrote: How much of a chance does an SK have in a 3-3-1 marv?
In various scenarious town becomes kingmaker
3-3-1, town and SK join together to lynch mafia for 3-2-1, mafia shoot town and SK shoot mafia, 2-1-1, town gets to decide who wins (SK or mafia) but town loses either way.
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On May 25 2013 00:08 s0Lstice wrote: If the scum KP is on the JK, does his protect still go through for the night?
yes, the real question is whether a roleblocker can prevent a JK's protection (usually it will prevent it, but not always)
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On May 25 2013 00:53 Dandel Ion wrote: You just need to lynch scum, then you don't have to rely on me to do anything :3
simply totally untrue
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On May 25 2013 00:59 Dandel Ion wrote: I thought you finally noticed how wrong you were when that guy that's not me pointed it out.
5-3-1 after the lynch, if you shoot town and mafia shoot town the game is over, therefore it does rely on you
we done?
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Killing you reduces anti-town KP by one, killing mafia doesn't.
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