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RED Team's Prize - Page 147

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
Prev 1 145 146 147 148 149 153 Next
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 03 2013 18:45 GMT
#2921
Or I guess zero if it turns out prplhz is town.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 03 2013 18:52 GMT
#2922
I still kinda think prplhz should shoot sinani. Why does the fact that Ryan might have reason to kill town with his powers change our calculus? His claim being true and him being scum have no difference except that if his claim is true we don't need to kill him to win.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36160 Posts
April 03 2013 18:57 GMT
#2923
dont be stupid

if rayn is mafia we want him dead asap so he stops shooting townies. same if he's town actually.
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 03 2013 18:59 GMT
#2924
but we know sinani is mafia. we want him dead asap so he stops shooting townies? I don't see the difference?
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36160 Posts
April 03 2013 19:01 GMT
#2925
if rayn is mafia he can kill multiple townies per cycle.
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36160 Posts
April 03 2013 19:05 GMT
#2926
it actually raises the question of why he hasn't day-vigied Hapahauli this cycle.
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 03 2013 19:08 GMT
#2927
but he can't kill any more if we leave him alive and lynch him than he can if we kill him tonight. he can kill hapa for free at any time, and hapa is the last person left he can kill aside from his one night action.

If we leave him alive, and prplhz kills sinani and the game doesn't end, then we can be sure that he's mafia.

If we leave him alive, and prplhz doesn't kill sinani, then we most likely have a prplhz/sinani scum team. In that case, we have to try and work out some deal with ryan where he doesn't kill any townies tonight, then we lynch sinani, then he kills some masons but leaves hapa alive, then he kills hapa right before the lynch on prplhz, securing both town's and his win conditions.

Finally, there's what I think is the most likely scenario - if we leave him alive, and prplhz kills sinani, then the game ends. I think "three scum plus one townie with an anti-town win condition and a shitload of KP" is stupid, but makes more sense for a setup than "four scum, one of whom has a shitload of extra KP", plus I'm kind of leaning towards agreeing with Keirathi's analysis from the last page or whatever.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
April 03 2013 19:08 GMT
#2928
That's the weird thing. Like we definitely know he can (with Acro + Grack), so I'm not sure why I'm still alive.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 03 2013 19:09 GMT
#2929
On April 04 2013 04:05 marvellosity wrote:
it actually raises the question of why he hasn't day-vigied Hapahauli this cycle.


if he is mafia, then the reason not to day vig hapa is that prplhz would be town and would night vig him asap.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36160 Posts
April 03 2013 19:10 GMT
#2930
On April 04 2013 04:08 strongandbig wrote:
but he can't kill any more if we leave him alive and lynch him than he can if we kill him tonight. he can kill hapa for free at any time, and hapa is the last person left he can kill aside from his one night action.

If we leave him alive, and prplhz kills sinani and the game doesn't end, then we can be sure that he's mafia.

If we leave him alive, and prplhz doesn't kill sinani, then we most likely have a prplhz/sinani scum team. In that case, we have to try and work out some deal with ryan where he doesn't kill any townies tonight, then we lynch sinani, then he kills some masons but leaves hapa alive, then he kills hapa right before the lynch on prplhz, securing both town's and his win conditions.

Finally, there's what I think is the most likely scenario - if we leave him alive, and prplhz kills sinani, then the game ends. I think "three scum plus one townie with an anti-town win condition and a shitload of KP" is stupid, but makes more sense for a setup than "four scum, one of whom has a shitload of extra KP", plus I'm kind of leaning towards agreeing with Keirathi's analysis from the last page or whatever.


there's no guarantee prplhz's gun would kill sinani. None whatsoever.
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36160 Posts
April 03 2013 19:10 GMT
#2931
On April 04 2013 04:09 strongandbig wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 04 2013 04:05 marvellosity wrote:
it actually raises the question of why he hasn't day-vigied Hapahauli this cycle.


if he is mafia, then the reason not to day vig hapa is that prplhz would be town and would night vig him asap.


prplhz is killing him anyway.
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36160 Posts
April 03 2013 19:11 GMT
#2932
On April 04 2013 04:08 Hapahauli wrote:
That's the weird thing. Like we definitely know he can (with Acro + Grack), so I'm not sure why I'm still alive.


Could be limited at 2-shot. Who knows.
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 03 2013 19:19 GMT
#2933
On April 04 2013 04:10 marvellosity wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 04 2013 04:08 strongandbig wrote:
but he can't kill any more if we leave him alive and lynch him than he can if we kill him tonight. he can kill hapa for free at any time, and hapa is the last person left he can kill aside from his one night action.

If we leave him alive, and prplhz kills sinani and the game doesn't end, then we can be sure that he's mafia.

If we leave him alive, and prplhz doesn't kill sinani, then we most likely have a prplhz/sinani scum team. In that case, we have to try and work out some deal with ryan where he doesn't kill any townies tonight, then we lynch sinani, then he kills some masons but leaves hapa alive, then he kills hapa right before the lynch on prplhz, securing both town's and his win conditions.

Finally, there's what I think is the most likely scenario - if we leave him alive, and prplhz kills sinani, then the game ends. I think "three scum plus one townie with an anti-town win condition and a shitload of KP" is stupid, but makes more sense for a setup than "four scum, one of whom has a shitload of extra KP", plus I'm kind of leaning towards agreeing with Keirathi's analysis from the last page or whatever.


there's no guarantee prplhz's gun would kill sinani. None whatsoever.


okay in the hypothetical situation where prplhz is town and sinani is vanilla scum, then say we lynch sinani tomorrow and he flips vanilla scum. Next night, prplhz kills ryan, and we still win because prplhz plus either you or I are still alive even if ryan kills all the masons somehow.

Or, if scum NK's prplhz and he flips town, we know to lynch ryan tomorrow, and we still win.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36160 Posts
April 03 2013 19:20 GMT
#2934
or you just stop thinking because it's not doing you any good. off you toddle.
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 03 2013 19:20 GMT
#2935
Basically though, the fact that ryan didn't shoot any masons last night, when he could have done so essentially for free, makes me think he's very likely to be town. That means we need him alive, purely for numbers reasons.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36160 Posts
April 03 2013 19:21 GMT
#2936
no.
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36160 Posts
April 03 2013 19:22 GMT
#2937
if rayn shot masons last-night he becomes an auto-lynch regardless of his alignment, and whether he's town or mafia he fails, either in his townwincon, or if he's mafia he fails because he dies and then sinani dies.
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 03 2013 19:23 GMT
#2938
le sigh.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36160 Posts
April 03 2013 19:23 GMT
#2939
Here's a thought that'll blow your mind - what if he is MAFIA with the wincon of killing all masons, meaning he had to kill Acro?
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 03 2013 19:24 GMT
#2940
so this is a counterfactual, but if we had seen two kp last night and one of them was on a mason, we would still have lynched smurf today.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
Prev 1 145 146 147 148 149 153 Next
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