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Maybe we can clear this up:
@Kurumi:
On March 31 2013 07:22 Kurumi wrote:
Obviously, you are going to use that only once, because people are pretty angry that they are getting killed and rigging them more than once would result in your inevitable death
Does this mean that Acro *could* use his power twice, but that would kill him? On first read through, I assumed you were just saying it was a 1-shot power because using it twice would be suicide, but please clarify your wording.
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On April 01 2013 01:13 marvellosity wrote:
Phone posting - did rayn claim Grack shot too? I forget and I'm trying to mull things over
No. Pretty sure its still un-claimed.
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We've told you like 10 times that we (probably) have zero mislynched to give. We have to get every lynch right from here on out.
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On April 01 2013 01:24 Oatsmaster wrote:
Assuming 4 scum.
Lets say we can mislynch 4. Cause this isnt exactly a mini and such.
Im pretty sure its not Lylo, Mylo.
Considering that Acro's death gives us another mislynch.
Zzzzz. I'll go through this again.
We started 12 town/4 scum. Grack was killed, that put us at 11 town/4 scum. We lynched a townie, that put us at 10/4. NIght 1 starts, and scum (at least very very likely) had 2 KP, but one was blocked and 1 townie died. Day 2 starts, and we're at 9 townies/4 scum. 2 townies get lynched, putting us at 7/4. Night 2 starts, Acro dies putting us at 7/3. It's a reasonable assumption that scum still has 2 KP, which puts us at 5/3 when the day starts tomorrow (in the worst case scenario with no saves). 5/3 is LYLO.
Aka no mislynches left.
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EBWOP: Actually, assuming scum loses 1 KP at 2 members, we will get 1 mislynch back after tomorrow assuming we lynch scum. But tomorrow is MYLO, *THEN* we get a mislynch back.
Still, only 1.
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On April 01 2013 01:38 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2013 01:36 Oatsmaster wrote:On April 01 2013 01:34 cDgCorazon wrote:This is why I don't see Sinani as scum: On March 31 2013 07:33 Hapahauli wrote:
Sinani initially seems more active than normal, but all he's really done is tunnel a bunch of people. I'd say of the group of four, he's the one I think is the likeliest townie due to how Acro pushed him. I do need to read into Acro's suspicions on him again just to see if it is compelling enough to vindicate Sinani completely.
I know scum can be risky, but bussing two of your scummates out of 4 total scum is borderline stupid. I don't think Acro is stupid. Dude. Acro could totally change the lynch to screw with us. Why not do that and hope we wifom out of lynching sinani? What in HIS PLAY that is scummy? Also prp. Talk to me about prp. This is actually a very good point.
How is it a good point?
Looking at it objectively, either sinani is scum and obviously Acro wouldn't have used the vote rigged lynch to kill him, or sinani is town and still a viable mislynch opportunity and wouldn't use the vote rigged lynch to kill him :o
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On April 01 2013 01:43 Oatsmaster wrote:
Im bored again and its night.
Why dandel ion and OO? Seems incredibly weird especially with the 3 confirmed townies and marv.
This is actually an interesting question. And its 4 confirmed town + marv (Me, cora, Hapa, S&B). And yes, I am including Cora and myself in there because 1) if rayn is town, then he confirmed us as town with his "Mason check" thing and 2) if rayn is scum, then Cora and I can't be scum with him because that would be 5 scum (again, assuming Smurf actually is scum, which I'm like 99.9999% sure of).
So, I would never have lynched OO. He might not have been "confirmed" town, but something very very drastic would have had to have happened before I would have ever stopped fighting against lynching him.
Dandel was a weird kill though. I think most of us had him as a slight town read early (?), but towards the middle of day 2 I started thinking he might be scum because he hadn't really been doing a whole lot.
But Hapa and S&B. They are only confirmed town through each other. And we really have no idea if scum actually have 2 KP or not. It could have been an elaborate ploy, but if it is, then Hapa is literally playing the scum game of the year and 100000x better than he played scum in Mario and (what I remember of) Duel.
I'm really not sure why none of us were lynched. It doesn't make sense. Maybe they were random? Acro's role PM doesn't really say exactly how he rigs the votes.
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On April 01 2013 01:56 Oatsmaster wrote:
Actually what did OO say about marv? (Checking now myself)
On March 30 2013 12:17 ObviousOne wrote:
Keirathi, trust me on Marv town.
This is not a joke, this is for serious.
If I could tell you exactly why, I would, but my role does not permit it.
On March 31 2013 07:00 Kurumi wrote:
ObviousOne the Setup Guy
Oh look! You are Qatol. The guy who does not play a lot, but balances a lot! It would be weird if you weren't balancing this one! The problem is, you are such a cool guy you balance pretty much every game, so you don't remember all the details about this one. At the start of every night you are going to be given an information about the setup, because you just remembered it! You win with Town when you kill the Scum! Did I mention that you can't ever claim that information in the THREAD? You probably should find a mason circle...
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On April 01 2013 01:48 marvellosity wrote:
The point is that mafia can bus with impunity with the vote rigger
Somehow I missed this post.
But thinking back, this is really the biggest reason that my Acro->sinani analysis falls apart. First off, when Acro made the case on sinani, it was pretty obvious that Smurf was still going to be lynched first. And Acro had no idea that the day would be a double lynch, because that was Palmar's night action (presumably).
Now, lets think about the vote rigger role itself. Presumably Acro asked Kurumi if using his power would affect both of the lynches. Which means 100% that yesterday was the day to use it (why lynch one townie for free, when you can lynch two?).
So, if Acro can affect both lynches, then pushing 2 of his teammates really isn't very risky. The vote rigging is anonymous, and even if the vote rigging "frames" his two teammates and they get lynched successively at a later point, Acro still looks good coming out of it because he was pushing them.
* isclaimer: The other side of that is Acro could "frame" 2 townies with the vote rigging too. Or 1 townie and 1 scum. This is all in a hypothetical where Acro himself didn't get lynched, ofc, but whoever the two town-chosen lynches were, they both come out of the rigged lynches looking much worse.
TL;DR - my analysis about sinani not being scum with Acro is irrelevant. I still don't think there is a ton that points to him actually being scum (the biggest being how hard Acro chainsaw defended him day 1), but I think it is a decent possibility again.
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On April 01 2013 03:09 Hapahauli wrote:
Oh swell. So check someone in the non-confirmed pool (Sinani, Oats, prplhz) and shoot someone else. Maybe we can get lucky.
I believe he can only do one at a time? Either check, or shoot. Not both?
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On April 01 2013 03:21 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2013 03:11 Keirathi wrote:On April 01 2013 01:48 marvellosity wrote:
The point is that mafia can bus with impunity with the vote rigger Somehow I missed this post. But thinking back, this is really the biggest reason that my Acro->sinani analysis falls apart. First off, when Acro made the case on sinani, it was pretty obvious that Smurf was still going to be lynched first. And Acro had no idea that the day would be a double lynch, because that was Palmar's night action (presumably). Now, lets think about the vote rigger role itself. Presumably Acro asked Kurumi if using his power would affect both of the lynches. Which means 100% that yesterday was the day to use it (why lynch one townie for free, when you can lynch two?). So, if Acro can affect both lynches, then pushing 2 of his teammates really isn't very risky. The vote rigging is anonymous, and even if the vote rigging "frames" his two teammates and they get lynched successively at a later point, Acro still looks good coming out of it because he was pushing them. * isclaimer: The other side of that is Acro could "frame" 2 townies with the vote rigging too. Or 1 townie and 1 scum. This is all in a hypothetical where Acro himself didn't get lynched, ofc, but whoever the two town-chosen lynches were, they both come out of the rigged lynches looking much worse. TL;DR - my analysis about sinani not being scum with Acro is irrelevant. I still don't think there is a ton that points to him actually being scum (the biggest being how hard Acro chainsaw defended him day 1), but I think it is a decent possibility again. I see one problem here. Acro claimed his power when the game started in our mason QT. I think he accidently put it there and was thinking he is posting in scum QT (rofl if i am right here, that would be hilarious ^_^). The claim was in our QT for 3 minutes. Me + Grack saw it. Now if Acro ever uses his power and townies get lynched, it incriminates him a lot. Acro didn't mention the vote rigging in any way before he was himself under pressure -> when we started voting him. I do not think Smurf/sinani are both scum and he was gonna use his power in the first place -> scum would have pretty much outed three of them in one phase. Makes sense?
Yea, that makes sense.
Counter-point, though: If Acro could control who was lynched with his vote-rigging, and he lynched you with it instead of say, Dandel, who would have been alive to tell us that he was the vote rigger?
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On April 01 2013 03:22 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2013 03:17 Hapahauli wrote:
oh so just shoot people and go wild on the non-confirmed dudes. They haven't claimed yet, so w/e. Yeah if people do not post before the deadline i'm going to take the safer route and just check someone.
No need to check. Just shoot.
If they are a town mason, they have ABSOLUTELY NO REASON not to claim right now. The only people who wouldn't be claiming are scum.
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On April 01 2013 03:44 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +I'm feeling a bit better about Rayn now that he's decided to talk more about his role. His shots make me want to yell at him though, but I'm not sure if I want to lynch him for it yet. You srsly think there is a possibility that i am scum and shot my teammate?
To be fair, I think there is a *possibility* that you did. However, I don't find it *likely* that you did.
But Acro was dead either way. If you are scum, you might as well shoot him and get town cred to ride to the easy win. The question really comes down to "Does scum rayn have the balls to pull it off?"
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Err
Night ended an hour early? :o
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On April 01 2013 06:03 marvellosity wrote:
... it could also be that. It's the same time for us europeans because of Daylights Savings this weekend :/
If non-Europeans missed night actions because of DST, that would be pretty silly.
Deadline was at 5pm my time yesterday, but 4pm today :o
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On April 01 2013 06:18 prplhz wrote:
okay
i target a player, if he's vanilla he becomes one shot vig, if he's not he dies.
palmar n1 smurf n2
So you're saying Smurf is a VT?
He didn't die.
Then why are you voting him?
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Oh, vanilla as in no power. Not vanilla as in Vanilla Townie?
Does it make them a day vig, or can they only use it at night?
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So thinking about that role, it sounds like an AMAZINGLY anti-town role. Basically its a blue snipe role. And, assuming there are actually mafia goons, you have a very small chance of ever killing mafia with it, AND a chance to give scum extra KP?
Bleh. I just don't see any way that makes sense as a town role.
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And actually, it makes a ton of sense as a mafia role. Lets you blue snipe, but (potentially) punishes you for being wrong.
Yea, I can definitely see prplhz as scum based on his play, and that role just fits more for scum than town.
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EPT
