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On January 22 2013 10:27 DearestSnot wrote:
gimme gimme gimme
I was just gonna ask you if you think sandro is scum for being wrong about prpl, but w/e.
Axle looks really fucking weird if you think about what he said about smurfs and prplhz. Maybe that's just me though, I might have a bias against people who were against smurfs being elected and/or prplhz getting lynched.
The oddest thing about Axle is that he was vehemently against electing a smurf on the basis that smurfs were difficult to read, but was quite happy to vote Chezinu.
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Please don't edit out anything related to this game. I don't think that's what you meant, but yeah.
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ok Toad, I guess that's fine.
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Thank you Toad. That does make me feel better about sandroba actually.
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Honestly, prplhz's mafia flip just makes Oats look even worse than before. I could well have been choosing between two mafia in my deliberations.
Oats dismissed the prplhz case for no particular reason, while supporting the Stutters case, despite his general tone of not lynching for lurkers.
It's very hard to see a town Oats right now, with his attitude towards me/austin/stutters/prplhz.
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On January 22 2013 11:21 DearestSnot wrote:
neither annul nor mocsta mentioned prpl, Oats was pretty waffly about prpl, and JX has no mention of him either other than in response to Chezinu to ask wtf the Chezinu rule is.
fuba has one mention of prpl, and it's to say he believes prpl is the best lynch but he's not really so sure. Kinda waffly. debears has one mention of prpl, agrees with the lynch.
My guess:
not everyone on the mafia team will have avoided mentioning prpl, but these players give us a good direction to look in.
Right now I'm willing to bet on fuba being town. He had his vote on austin and could easily have left it there, but instead sheeped on to me and the prplhz case.
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A couple of things for the moment.
On January 22 2013 16:01 DearestSnot wrote:
Also it's pretty townie of Oats to call out debears like he just did.
This is lazy and incorrect. It's extremely easy for anyone of any alignment to call out someone posting nonsense. How you read this as pretty townie is baffling, bugs.
On January 22 2013 15:49 DearestSnot wrote:
Mocsta you should read more carefully. Oats was against electing FT because FT wanted to kill him.
Upon rereading and looking back at things I actually think Oats is town. Anyone agree?
As soon as FT is back perhaps he can explain further why he thinks Oats actually looks worse, because I disagree on that.
Please explain in detail why you believe this to be the case. I can find few, if any, redeeming features for Oatsmaster. I would specifically like sandroba's thoughts on this. Oatsmaster has attacked me twice since the deadline, when there is no basis for doing so:
On January 22 2013 12:12 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2013 11:02 FiveTouch wrote:
Honestly, prplhz's mafia flip just makes Oats look even worse than before. I could well have been choosing between two mafia in my deliberations.
Oats dismissed the prplhz case for no particular reason, while supporting the Stutters case, despite his general tone of not lynching for lurkers.
It's very hard to see a town Oats right now, with his attitude towards me/austin/stutters/prplhz. I dismissed the case cause I didnt think that the changes in meta were particularly scummy. Although his random WIFOM vote for you without any explaination probably put the nail in his coffin. I didnt want a mayor lynching a lurker like BroodkingEXE and Clarity. See the difference between them and Stutters? I attacked you earlier because you wanted to lynch me. I dont see how you being townie means that I am all nice to you when you want to lynch me. Its not a contridication, now it looks like you are making things up in order to discredit me for whatever reason.
On January 22 2013 17:36 Oatsmaster wrote:
Why do you think that 5touch is Palmer, when he said that he wasnt palmer? Has that influenced your read on 5touch?
Given I'm pretty much guaranteed to be town, these are both really out of place.
On January 22 2013 18:12 Toadesstern wrote:
Actually screw what I said about JX earlier... he was voting palmar when he openly stated he's going to lynch prplhz. That's not a mafia.
I don't believe this is a correct way of approaching things. JieXian voted for me late - my mayorship was almost 100% guaranteed by the time JieXian gave me his vote. You could think of it as a late bus on a mafia wagon that was already in the lead. I'm hoping to find the time to re-read Day 1 to find the point where my candidacy was assured, or at least very likely. The reactions of mafia are likely to change throughout the day.
I would like everybody to read Vivax's case on JieXian, made shortly before the deadline. Please tell me why you agree or disagree, and what conclusions you have.
debears - you were part of the fiasco that was LVIII, yet your contributions remain mostly unproductive. Please step it up so that we don't risk repeating such events in this town. Now is the time for your Djodref case, or indeed any case.
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On January 22 2013 22:38 AxleGreaser wrote:EBWOP Show nested quote +On January 22 2013 22:12 FiveTouch wrote:
Given I'm pretty much guaranteed to be town, these are both really out of place.
On the basis of Lynching Scum D1 I take it? I know its uber ballsy as a scum Bus for Mayor to Lynch a team mate but..., but doesn't the 3 vote situation kind of level that? Are there any conditions under which you would no longer be "guaranteed to be town, these are both really out of place." Just asking for your reasoning and any limits you have on your new status.
There really is no reason for a mafia mayor to lynch one of his team-mates on Day 1. An often neglected aspect of mafia lynches on Day 1 especially is that it gives a large amount of information on a lot of players in the game. There's far more to be gleaned from a mafia flip than a town flip, so the lynch isn't just about me, it's about all the players.
I pushed my candidates in an open and transparent way, and perhaps even more importantly I managed to close the chasm that was threatening to open between the more experienced and the newer players.
I'll continue to play in the same vein, and people can continue to judge me on my play, but there is no reason to think I could be mafia.
A question for you Axle - given you were so against electing a smurf on the basis of readability, how does this line up with your decision to support Chezinu, another player notoriously difficult to read?
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On January 22 2013 23:06 Oatsmaster wrote:
Well 5touch, I asked the question to gauge Toads reaction, nothing to do with my read on you, I already said I think you are town.
Im really confused about Vivax case, he rambles a lot and doesnt conclude at all, doesnt tell a story on how JX is scum, just links a few posts and summary. Seems like basically his case rests on the fact that JX isnt following up.
Which after reading his filter, I dont agree with. I think that JX is town.
I'm happy to give you a fair hearing and not condemn you out of hand, Oats.
On January 22 2013 01:25 Oatsmaster wrote:
Ok with Austin's reappearance, I am inclined to vote for him as mayor. Why? Because I feel that he has put in more effort into finding scum than 5touch and that he is willing to be transparent and all the things various people have said that the mayor be.
He also stood up to lurky sandro early about JX when he couldve ignored the incident. That is one of the reasons I have a town tell on him. I also agree with his lynch target now that I read his reasoning and Stutter's filter.
Stutter's posted 4 posts and just disappeared, I feel that as a town player, his start wouldve been continued through the thread but it was not to be which makes me think that he is putting up a front of activity at the start to allay all suspicions then lurking his way through the rest of the game.
Vote: Austinmcc
This was your reasoning for liking the push on Stutters. Would you argue that prplhz contributed in any meaningful way? I made it clear that prplhz showed a complete lack of interest in town affairs, and this is also clear from his filter. What did you see as town in prplhz, as opposed to the mafia in Stutters?
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On January 22 2013 23:41 Oatsmaster wrote:
Prp was town in my view because:
I liked this question
@Vivax Why are you running for mayor? All you say is "I might do this, I might do that, I don't like scum, vote for me." and it seems like you don't know why you are running for mayor either. Why would we put you into office over these vets that you're not going to lynch because of how valuable they are to town?
It seemed to me that no one was picking up on Vivax and the fact that his town campaign was pretty fluffy, including me. I didnt think that scum prp would do that because it focuses the attention on you and causes your actions to be more scrutinized especially since people were rolling with Vivax until his disappearence IIRC.
This sounds reasonable. The problem is that prplhz was the third post after Vivax's mayoral case, with Toad saying he won't vote Vivax, and Axle questioning Vivax. So your interpretation:
It seemed to me that no one was picking up on Vivax and the fact that his town campaign was pretty fluffy, including me.
is simply completely incorrect, given how early prplhz made that post, and the fact that the two posts preceding it were casting doubt on the Vivax campaign.
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Axlegreaser, I asked you a question and I don't expect it to be ignored:
On January 22 2013 22:59 FiveTouch wrote:
A question for you Axle - given you were so against electing a smurf on the basis of readability, how does this line up with your decision to support Chezinu, another player notoriously difficult to read?
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On January 23 2013 01:09 DearestSnot wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2013 22:12 FiveTouch wrote:A couple of things for the moment. On January 22 2013 16:01 DearestSnot wrote:
Also it's pretty townie of Oats to call out debears like he just did. This is lazy and incorrect. It's extremely easy for anyone of any alignment to call out someone posting nonsense. How you read this as pretty townie is baffling, bugs. On January 22 2013 15:49 DearestSnot wrote:
Mocsta you should read more carefully. Oats was against electing FT because FT wanted to kill him.
Upon rereading and looking back at things I actually think Oats is town. Anyone agree?
As soon as FT is back perhaps he can explain further why he thinks Oats actually looks worse, because I disagree on that. Please explain in detail why you believe this to be the case. I can find few, if any, redeeming features for Oatsmaster. I would specifically like sandroba's thoughts on this. Oatsmaster has attacked me twice since the deadline, when there is no basis for doing so: On January 22 2013 12:12 Oatsmaster wrote:On January 22 2013 11:02 FiveTouch wrote:
Honestly, prplhz's mafia flip just makes Oats look even worse than before. I could well have been choosing between two mafia in my deliberations.
Oats dismissed the prplhz case for no particular reason, while supporting the Stutters case, despite his general tone of not lynching for lurkers.
It's very hard to see a town Oats right now, with his attitude towards me/austin/stutters/prplhz. I dismissed the case cause I didnt think that the changes in meta were particularly scummy. Although his random WIFOM vote for you without any explaination probably put the nail in his coffin. I didnt want a mayor lynching a lurker like BroodkingEXE and Clarity. See the difference between them and Stutters? I attacked you earlier because you wanted to lynch me. I dont see how you being townie means that I am all nice to you when you want to lynch me. Its not a contridication, now it looks like you are making things up in order to discredit me for whatever reason. On January 22 2013 17:36 Oatsmaster wrote:
Why do you think that 5touch is Palmer, when he said that he wasnt palmer? Has that influenced your read on 5touch? Given I'm pretty much guaranteed to be town, these are both really out of place.
On January 22 2013 18:12 Toadesstern wrote:
Actually screw what I said about JX earlier... he was voting palmar when he openly stated he's going to lynch prplhz. That's not a mafia. I don't believe this is a correct way of approaching things. JieXian voted for me late - my mayorship was almost 100% guaranteed by the time JieXian gave me his vote. You could think of it as a late bus on a mafia wagon that was already in the lead. I'm hoping to find the time to re-read Day 1 to find the point where my candidacy was assured, or at least very likely. The reactions of mafia are likely to change throughout the day. I would like everybody to read Vivax's case on JieXian, made shortly before the deadline. Please tell me why you agree or disagree, and what conclusions you have.
debears - you were part of the fiasco that was LVIII, yet your contributions remain mostly unproductive. Please step it up so that we don't risk repeating such events in this town. Now is the time for your Djodref case, or indeed any case. I would give you a 90-95% confidence that Oats is town. Look at how active and transparent he is being; in hindsight all of his posts look like that. His wariness to electing you and his initial backlash is very natural for almost any player, given that you initially ran on the platform of killing him. From his perspective you were some vet he can't even specifically accuse gunning for his lynch, with not much to say other than "you're wrong, I'm not scum." Secondly, his attitude on prplhz is not that surprising. Almost every player in the game found a better lynch than prplhz and I honestly would have myself if I were not aware of prplhz's meta. In fact, meta is almost the sole reason I was suspicious of him in the first place. You can't peg his alignment to the validity of his opinions when you know he doesn't perceive the game in the same way you do. How can you expect a less experienced player, whom you just tried to kill, to see the game in the same light as you? It doesn't make sense and quite honestly isn't fair.
To the bolded - the issue is that Oats did not have a single scumread at the time, so an explanation of having found a better lynch simply doesn't ring true.
There are also the multitude of points where he wilfully twisted points that I was making, or questions that had already been directly addressed, for example:
On January 21 2013 10:17 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2013 07:47 FiveTouch wrote:
This is an extremely odd defence of JieXian. Why are you making it?
That's because I find what Oats said to be the scummiest thing in the thread at the time, and I still feel that way. Given this is a mayoral election day, there is no risk whatsoever of a fast bandwagon on to JieXian, so his defence of him was completely unwarranted. Why did Oats not want any pressure on JieXian? Oats wasn't even defending his play, rather the fact there was pressure on him. It's scummy Why is me commenting on the pressure and the fact that it could snowball scummy?
He's asking a question which is answered within the quote he's answering. Or this post, made shortly after I explained why I was voting for myself:
On January 21 2013 11:34 Oatsmaster wrote:
So you made up your mind that town was useless after 12 hours?
Why didnt you push to be mayor before? Cause you wanted to see how you could manipulate town? Or cause you are lazy and wanted other town to have the responsibility?
Or again here, where he misrepresents what I said:
On January 21 2013 11:58 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2013 08:32 FiveTouch wrote:
I'd really much rather lynch Oatsmaster at the moment. For the reason I already mentioned, and in addition he asked me a terrible question on why me not running for mayor is not the same as sandroba not running for mayor. This means he read my post where I quite clearly stated it was sandroba's continuing lack of input that was the real problem, so he's twisting my words for no discernable reason. Terrible questions equal scum? I didnt know that bad play was scummy play as well :O
Further, look at the vast differences of opinion he has on me:
On January 21 2013 11:58 Oatsmaster wrote:
What does 5touch have done to deserve the mayorial position? Is it because all of you agree with his reads? Or think he is town? Cause all I see in his filter is a lot of 1 liners and not much else.
FiveTouch./Everyone sheeping him.
On January 21 2013 22:21 Oatsmaster wrote:
Ok on to FiveTouch,
He is leaking town through his pores, but I dont want to vote for him because day 1 lynch will be a mislynch. Me. However, if he changes his target, I would think about voting for him based on his reads.
This is in addition to the original problem of his defence of JieXian, which he defended to the hilt, but was finally forced to back down when I provided evidence that what he claimed wasn't true. The first quote is simply a flat-out lie:
On January 21 2013 12:17 Oatsmaster wrote:
It was quickly becoming, YEAH IM IN FAVOUR OF LYNCHING JX CAUSE VETS SAID HE WAS SCUM.
yeah, which is dumb as fuck.
On January 21 2013 12:35 Oatsmaster wrote:
Ok 5touch, I was wrong and you were right, I just feel that JX wasent scum off those 2 posts.
HOWEVER, his disappearance since then is not good for him being town.
I dont want to vote for a mayor that advocates lurker lynching because it removes the responsibility that the mayor has to justify his lynches. I want the mayor to not be fucking retarded and actually takes some responsibility for his actions.
I will take your opinions into account, but there are a whole plethora of reasons to think Oatsmaster is mafia.
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On January 23 2013 02:16 Toadesstern wrote:
back. Palmar you're okay with me giving the names of the bodyguard to Sandro later on, right?
There's a reasonably good argument for telling the whole thread who the bodyguards are.
For example, if mafia chose to have 2 bodyguards and simply shot both of us.
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On January 23 2013 02:27 DearestSnot wrote:
I think we're just going to have to disagree on Oats, I don't actually see how he is misrepresenting you. I honestly (no offense to oats) don't see it being likely that he would be able to subtly twist words like that under duress. It simply looks like he was clouded and didn't understand why you wanted him dead-under that kind of pressure players are not likely to read very clearly.
There are meta arguments that point to him being mafia as well, although obviously they aren't that strong on their own. I will bring these up later. Whether you agree on the misrepresentation, there still remains:
- his fast about-turn on me, going from "posting 1 liners and not much else" to "leaking town through his pores"
- his extremely suspicious defence of JieXian, which he defended based on a lie. If his entire defence to this suspicious action was a lie, where does that leave us? He said that he was defending JieXian against a fast-bandwagon, and was forced to admit that one didn't even exist, nor looked like it exists. So what is the explanation for what he did?
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On January 23 2013 02:26 Toadesstern wrote:
I actually considered doing the bullshit and protect you tonight for that very reason. If they want to all-in they might be able to do so with a Jack by shooting you, me and Sandroba after all as well.
Yes, we absolutely cannot presume we're safe tonight. Planning under that assumption is risky. I don't particularly see many downsides to the thread knowing the bodyguards. If the bodyguards are indeed town and mafia want to shoot them to get through to us, they will have made a fine sacrifice in the line of duty, and I will commemorate them with statues of gold.
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On January 23 2013 02:57 DearestSnot wrote:
Defending people unnecessarily has been endemic to the forum recently. I don't see how Oats doing this is any worse than people inexplicably defending prplhz or whomever after only one or two suspicions have been raised. Perhaps he saw a bandwagon on a weak townie in a previous game, perhaps he simply viewed the situation differently at the time and only realized in hindsight he was wrong, who knows.
Also I think town are far more likely than scum to admit a mistake or change their opinion as drastically as he did regarding you. Most scum find it too hard or scary to change their opinion on the fly like that, because it calls too much attention to themselves.
Anyway this is all I'm going to say on the matter since I'm not terribly concerned that Oats will get lynched. I think annul or debears are far better targets for tomorrow, or even someone like Clarity or BKE.
You're rather missing the points. Oats did not defend JieXian directly, he attacked the bandwagon that didn't exist. His entire explanation was relating to the bandwagon. This is not the same as randomly defending people from accusations, which is simply bad (as well as possibly mafia-oriented).
Oatsmaster was almost forced to change his opinion on me, for the sake of survival. He could have been asked to change his stance on me in a scumQT, who knows? There is absolutely no explanation for the about-turn. Actually the simplest explanation isn't a townie willing to change his mind with no explanation, the simplest explanation is a mafia doing what was best to try to ensure his survival. Just note prplhz voting for me at the end of the Day. "posting only one liners" -> "leaking town through his pores" is not a natural progression.
Most of your arguments are either unconvincing or based on weak premises.
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On January 23 2013 03:16 sandroba wrote:
@palmar that attack was indeed weird but the subsequent posting doesn't feel mafia oriented to me. Actually plenty of the quotes you posted are kinda townie, freaking out about how you are getting so many votes is one of them. His stutters being mafia read is okay with me, his gonzaw being mafia read is kinda weird I guess, but I've thought about it as well.
I'd much prefer to lynch into annul/bke/stutters tomorrow. Looking at how things have gone yesterday an inactive mafia team looks much more likely.
JieXian is no longer on your list? mkfuba?
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On January 23 2013 03:53 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2013 03:47 DearestSnot wrote:
I don't understand the scum Oats motivation for pushing you, gonzaw. It seems almost suicidal to me.
In another game I had recently I was inclined to vote someone for calling me scum in a situation where he was under heby pressure. My gut said that he was town based on the unlikelihood of him being willing to call me out so hard when I was the deciding vote. I decided to stubbornly ignore my suspicion and the guy flipped town.
I just don't see what kind of scum would come to the conclusion that one of the mayoral candidates is scum and then proceed to attack the one who is most likely to put forth a strong backlash with a serious and solid response. But it doesn't make sense from a town perspective to be honest. Like....he instantly OMGUSes me back on D1, seemingly accusing me of being scum, but backtracks it for some reason (saying "This doesn't mean I think he's scum"). That felt out of the ordinary almost instantly, and didn't seem like a townie would post that at all. Now it seems to me he wanted to stay "consistent" with that. Since he already posted "some" suspicion on me, I would think it wouldn't be that "hard" for him to just keep up with it to the "extreme". Also I've had my fair share of scum just blatantly OMGUSing me and FoSing me for no reason in like, every single game I'm town  I think you guys are attributing a little too much meaning to something that maybe doesn't matter at all.
This is correct. Most of what bugs has been posting tonight is simply incorrect. sandroba is calling things townie when there's no reason to do so, similar to how he called prplhz's posts genuine or sincere (...).
bugs has made two assertions in the last few hours:
1) mafia are unwilling to change their mind on someone as easily as town, used in conjunction with Oats' volte-face on his read on me.
2) mafia are unwilling to attack a stronger player with some influence, used in conjunction with Oats' case on gonzaw.
The problem is that 2 does not go with 1 if we're talking about Oats' attitude towards me on day 1. Oatsmaster attacked me early on when I was a random smurf calling him out as mafia, and then when it seemed clear that I was in a position of big influence, meekly backed down from his aggressive stance on me. This is in fact the polar opposite of 2.
What stance does bugs propose a mafia Oats takes on me during Day 1? If he keeps attacking me then he's attacking a strong player with influence, and mafia are unlikely to do this. If he turns his read around, mafia are less likely to do this than town. So whichever options Oatsmaster chooses, it's a town-tell in bugs' book.
Lazily applied heuristics.
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On January 23 2013 04:24 DearestSnot wrote:
These aren't weak reasons. Oats didn't attack you, FT, for being a smurf. He attacked you for wanting to kill him. Plenty of people will do that regardless of their alignment.
I didn't say this. He attacked me at the beginning of the game when my influence was least, and it wasn't even clear if I was a decent player or anything. What I'm getting at is that he attacked me while I was comparatively 'weak' and then backed off when I was 'strong'.
Then, he said that despite your willingness to lynch him, you appeared town. How many mafia willingly say something like that? That's a knowing self-contradiction and it's a huge attention-drawing move. It's also incredibly honest and it takes a very transparent player to be able to admit that their attacker is town despite being wrong about their own alignment. How many noob scum do you see that do this? How many scum on the forum are even capable of doing that?
Plenty? Not every single mafia calls their attacker mafia. It's much easier for mafia to call their attacker town than it is for a townie, because mafia know the guy is town, and a townie has no idea of the alignment of his attacker. From a mafia point of view, backing down from attacking me has obvious motive - basic survival. From a town point of view, his radical change is bizarre to say the least.
My opinion? Throw out all of the shit that oats did in response to the attack on him. It was far townier than what I'd expect scum to do, which is more in the line of what prpl did. He vaguely threw dirt on the case and simply lurked as a means to an end. I didn't find any particular anomaly with respect to Oats' activity nor his attitude. The reasoning you're using for him to attack you is flawed in my opinion. Townies under duress don't think initially of the calibre of their opponents, only the fact that they are wrong.
This is meaningless
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On January 23 2013 04:42 sandroba wrote:
@palmar that's a bit of confirmation bias on your part. If you already think oats is mafia, yes, you can fit everything he posts into a mafia mindset, trying to explain how he is mafia in that situation. I really don't think we can tell for sure whether oats is mafia or not right now, because there are certain aspects of his posting that do feel a lot like a townie. My initial suspicion on Oats was based on when he called me out, I came back to the thread to answer him then posted something on JX, which he proceeded to ignore until Vivax brought it up. He then came up with a made up defense that looked bad.
Now if I set my mind on him thinking I'm scum I can see him ignoring my comment and being alarmed on someone ressurecting it afterwards, then defending my suspect based on his own bias. His subsequent posting look kinda townie as wbg pointed out, and I agree with his reasoning. Of course it's possible he is pretty good at scum and is faking all that, but I don't think it's likely, and at least we should chill a bit and check out subsequent behavior, especially regarding tomorrow's lynch.
Simply enough, my read differs to you. From the mafia filter you linked:
On December 05 2012 00:30 Oatsmaster wrote:
Currently I have a slight town read on yamato, however he seems to be acting differently as opposed to last game. Probably because he wants to improve like me, but you never know.
On December 05 2012 01:05 Oatsmaster wrote:
removed
Im leaning slightly scum on yamato and kickstart
removed
On December 05 2012 09:31 Oatsmaster wrote:
I changed my read on yamato because at that time, I had the impression that he was null to slightly town, then when I looked through yamato's filter, I found some scummy stuff.
He starts out with the introductory post then has no content otherwise.
That gives me the impression that he is asking questions to look involved and notice, he asked so many questions to axle who looked ill-equipped to answer, so its not very effective in finding scum.
A contradiction, albeit the other way round. A mafia Oatsmaster has problems keeping his story consistent.
In any case, you're right that I don't need to push it right now. Suffice to say I disagree with bugs' reasons to call him town.
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