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On January 24 2013 10:08 wherebugsgo wrote:
I thought you meant more recently, tbh. That was over 4 days ago.
The upsides to a lazer lynch: he's escaped close lynches already
downsides: there are plenty of sort of vague heuristics that we can apply to his play to call him town.
Why is jay town? Can we answer that question? What has he done?
im gonna read jays filter tomorrow he really hasn't been on my radar
from my skim through i see lots of questions being asked which is ok i guess
but he does have tendency to just sumarize what has happened which is something i think is scummy because its a way to appear to contribute while not actually doing it.
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On January 24 2013 10:17 wherebugsgo wrote:
actually I think I'm just running complicated circles around myself again. I remember why I considered jay town again, despite his inactivity he seems to be up-front in his questions and he seems to at least want to win the game.
Lazer's still not here, and neither is xata.
Let's go back to the simplest explanation I had, and that was in my votecount analysis before my seeding the thread with reads pulled grush out of his inactivity.
if grush left his vote on Lazer over Hopeless on d2 it could have meant Lazer would have died. If grush is scum with Lazer this is a really scary thing to do. Certainly if he places his vote and then moves it inexplicably it doesn't matter, since he's planning on squandering it anyway (as scum.) It makes no sense as town to waste your vote like that EVEN IF you have suddenly changed your mind about Hapa/Hopeless. It only makes sense if you intend on pushing your read to a lynch, but grush was not intending that. He was intending to afk, to leave his vote there, to waste it.
At that point even if one of us wanted to switch off Hopeless onto lazer, Hopeless still would've died because he reached 4 votes first. (it was 5-3-1 at that point)
The only way this makes sense from a town grush perspective is if he thought both Hopeless and Lazer were town, but it's clear by both his votes and his talk that he did not view lazer as town. He's not dumb, he knew the vote was between those 2. It's simply a scum move to waste it by putting it on Hapa, regardless of what we know now about Hapa's alignment.
I'm very tempted to simply go with Occam's Razor here and simply say we should lynch grush and then lazer.
no reason not to examine all the possibilities we cant be wrong
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On January 24 2013 10:42 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2013 10:30 grush57 wrote:
WBG, you forgot one thing.
STARSENSES!
Also you're over thinking the vote I thought hopeless was dead and wanted to show my vote on Hapa.
And Lazermonkey is lurking so lynch him? yeah, maybe the simplest explanation in reality is that you weren't thinking. lol. iamp, when you're back: do you think scum could have chosen to hold their roleblock after slOosh claimed that Xata is blue? (i.e. Xata is scum) Right now the two players notably absent from this conversation are Xata and Lazer. Jay was around earlier.
based on the setup we should have another blue correct?
i'm not good at that stuff.
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so then xaltos is almost certainly town correct
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On January 24 2013 12:09 grush57 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2013 09:35 grush57 wrote:On January 24 2013 09:21 iamperfection wrote:
hrmmmmmmm
pondering the possibilities.
Mr lazer any updated thoughts because i have some thoughts on you now.
But would like to hear what you think of the remaining players. lazer thoughts on the wbg case
is that all your going to do with your time?
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I thought you were asking lazer
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im probably going to be dropping reads on everyone as i have time today.
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if bugs is scum he almost certainly deserves to win. However the simpler explanation is simply that he is town. Outside of me he has been the most active and seems to care the most about who gets lynched (townie traits to me)
He also has some recent tells that make him almost certainly town.
showing doubt on the hapa lynch here
On January 22 2013 14:55 wherebugsgo wrote:
okay so including the RB claim, why would Hapa as scum push Hopeless so hard with not even a shred of a backup plan?
Would a scum really suicidally push a townie that hard? I'm not getting that part at all.
sure, some of his reads look strange in hindsight, after knowing that Hopeless flipped town, but I think you can find town motivation behind most, if not all, of the things that he did. I'm super confused at why a scum, who knows Hopeless is town (and that Hopeless is one of the better players in the game) would just push him so hard for two days straight with not even an ounce of hesitation.
Tunnel-syndrome is almost exclusive to townies. If anyone has seen Hapa play a scum game before in this style I'd love to see it, It is troubling that he didn't do a read-dump and that he's afk now but this is mind boggling to me.
wbg as scum would know that hapa was scum and there was simply no way that hapa was not getting lynched at this point. It would have been far easier for a scum wbg to just sit and bus his buddy. In this situation he would have had to recognize the idea that him showing doubt here might come across to some as townie since there was zero chance of hapa being saved.
Therefore the simple explanation is that wbg is town would you combine it with his activity and caring of who gets lynched.
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as we concluded last night xaltos is town not gonna bother going through his filter.
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i might have to save the rest of you to this afternoon.
some questions though while i ponder
1- jay describe your town play to me if you would be so kind.
2- grush wbg is town who is your scum team?
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On January 24 2013 23:48 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2013 22:58 iamperfection wrote:
as we concluded last night xaltos is town not gonna bother going through his filter. AFAIK, we didn't really conclude Xata being town. But it is very likely due to the fact that he got RB when scum knew there probebly were more blue roles.
this is an educated guessing game after all...
very likely concluded same thing.
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jay and grush are the scum in your view lazer correct?
Why are you not trying to convince me?
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i started righting a case on jay but i now think he is town. He seems pretty active and he asks a lot of questions regarding the current reads hes pushing and asking what people think of his case.
Seems townie to me
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which would lead to the conclusion of lazer grush scum team.
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grush should die first imo
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maybe we should have them duke it out the next few days.
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On January 25 2013 08:06 Xatalos wrote:This is Kush's filter from Witchcraft (he was scum): http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=386816&user=200457Notice the drastic difference from that game to this game. He has a much more serious, cautious and diplomatic attitude to everything. But here... He just didn't seem to care if he appeared scummy or not, doing all kinds of scummy things and otherwise gathering negative attention.
that is correct but he wasnt in this game very long i would put more stock into kush's actions. Plus since lazer is still in the game that is how i would judge it.
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On January 25 2013 08:17 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2013 08:11 iamperfection wrote:On January 25 2013 08:06 Xatalos wrote:This is Kush's filter from Witchcraft (he was scum): http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=386816&user=200457Notice the drastic difference from that game to this game. He has a much more serious, cautious and diplomatic attitude to everything. But here... He just didn't seem to care if he appeared scummy or not, doing all kinds of scummy things and otherwise gathering negative attention. that is correct but he wasnt in this game very long i would put more stock into kush's actions. Plus since lazer is still in the game that is how i would judge it. You mean put more stock into Lazer's actions? I guess that's fair, since Kush was forced out of the game early D1, but it's hard to shake the initial townread I had on Kush.
ya thats what i meant
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On January 25 2013 08:23 Lazermonkey wrote:Okay, seems I cannot sleep so I figured that I could just as well stay up untill deadline. Show nested quote +On January 25 2013 07:36 iamperfection wrote:
i started righting a case on jay but i now think he is town. He seems pretty active and he asks a lot of questions regarding the current reads hes pushing and asking what people think of his case.
Seems townie to me The case you are refering to his case on grush, right? He asked people what they thought of it once IIRC... And he never even voted grush. Comments on my case on him? Your obviously disagreeing with it but I'd like to see exactly why.
like i saw a lot posts like what do you think of my case.
More like he wanted his voice to be heard and stuff like that. Town want to be heard because that want to kill scum. Scum just to survive so they blend in.
Looks like jay wants his voice heard.
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EPT
