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On January 07 2013 16:36 OmniEulogy wrote:I just got rudely woken up by my cat... I'm extremely out of it but from what I've read and what I understand at 2:30 in the morning... if your % are right and I can explain this clearly enough, I believe yourself and Syl to be confirmed town. I've decided that at this point (and after reading everybody's filters while I was alone all day) that if you(mocsta) are scum we've lost but I'm convinced you are town and syl is a town read. I Know I am town and although it is a lot to ask I'm begging you to trust me on that. That leaves us with 3 players, 4 with TeMiL that are possible scum. I believe that gives us slightly better than 50% odds on a scum lynch. Personally I think Jampi looks like the easiest target for the lynch. However if this is true with who I've identified as town it also means TeMiL roughly has as you said (maybe.. I'm tired) a 50% chance of being scum. so if we look at it as jampi, spag and zare and only 1 scum among them, I think I'd pick Jampi. I'm gonna go get a drink and then on my way back to bed I'll see if anybody else is awake. Idk how long I'll be up either way though lol and if this makes less sense than normal... well... I'm tired 
Omni..
will you be online in say 7hrs? If so, I will ensure that I am available for discussions (will be 11pm my time).
Lynches at at 08:00am for me.. I can be there from 0600 to 0800, but between 0200 and 0600 is asking too much  and the final 2hrs are not enough for town to evaluate a good case (as I proved on Day 1)
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On January 07 2013 16:36 OmniEulogy wrote:
Personally I think Jampi looks like the easiest target for the lynch. However if this is true with who I've identified as town it also means TeMiL roughly has as you said (maybe.. I'm tired) a 50% chance of being scum. so if we look at it as jampi, spag and zare and only 1 scum among them, I think I'd pick Jampi.
Omni... I agree on your choice of 4 possibilities for scum.
jampidampi
spaghetticus
zarepath
TeMiL
Below are my rough outlines of thoughts on the four candidates.
TeMiL
+ Show Spoiler +
obivously a loose cannon, and not even posting currently, hence null read. I think the best approach is to focus on lynching a scum, and dealing with TeMiL day 3... he might even get replaced the way this is going.
TL;DR
Leave for Day 3 and pursue a top scum read.
zarepath
+ Show Spoiler +
For me. i still think his motives are town based, but obviously real life has gotten in the way of more contributions. Because of this I would say null with a town vibe (which is what I have been saying since Day 1).
If you can find scum motivations, I am more than willing to hear them out and consider him as a candidate (due to being null)
TL;DR
I still think his actions are taken with town in mind. He may be aggressive, but heck, so am I and OmniEulogy.
Spaghetticus
+ Show Spoiler +
Many, Many fishy things in his play... but he has also been active. I think the second scum is between TeMiL (no read) and spaghetticus. Best approach I think is to leave for Day3, and monitor his voting activities for Day 2. (Will be difficult as he changes his vote a lot)
TL;DR
Leave for Day 3; his actions on day 2 may go a long way to proving innocence.
jampidampi
+ Show Spoiler +
Has been weak all game, filter is minimal (just over 1 page); and has only released information when asked. All classic scum traits.
Then there is the case on me (if you can even call it a case). That is so riddled with lack of conviction, you can actually visualize him shaking while typing because he knows hes just creating and fabricating meanings for his (scum) agenda.
TL;DR
This is my #1 scum read. Was before his case on me, and is definitely after his case on me.
With the last post Omni... treat TeMiL as useless town.. 33% of scum for jampidampi, spag, zarepath.
I think spag/zarepath/TeMiL can be worked on Day 3.
as you said, jampidampi is the easiest candidate, as I outlined above.
I shall re-iterate with my vote from prior.
On January 06 2013 18:28 Mocsta wrote:
...
##VOTE: Jampidampi
...
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On January 07 2013 20:13 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Omni
This is lazy sheeping. [b]NK's are not automatically put down on the player that is the most obvious threat to scum[b], that would make this game damn easy. [b]NK's are a premeditated action that have calculated results, ....
Hi Spag.
You have convinced me about NKs. What you said there, is spoken with [true] conviction.. straight out of the 'proverbial' horses mouth.
Guess you were right when you said the below...
[B]On January 03 2013 19:51 Spaghetticus wrote:
I am relatively knowledgeable in scum behaviour.
You have indeed proven this is true...
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EBWOP:Damm BBCode
On January 07 2013 20:13 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Omni
This is lazy sheeping. NK's are not automatically put down on the player that is the most obvious threat to scum, that would make this game damn easy. NK's are a premeditated action that have calculated results, ....
Hi Spag.
You have convinced me about NKs. What you said there, is spoken with [true] conviction.. straight out of the 'proverbial' horses mouth.
Guess you were right when you said the below...
On January 03 2013 19:51 Spaghetticus wrote:
I am relatively knowledgeable in scum behaviour.
You have indeed proven this is true...
[/QUOTE]
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On January 07 2013 21:06 Spaghetticus wrote:
This is like the umpteenth time you have either uncharitably appraised my motive.
This is the first time it's sounded like you might want to make a case. Your thoughts on me are required anyway, as either you me or Syl die tonight.
Don't u worry Spag.. you me, or Syl are not dying tonight.. Its still Day 2, just in case you forgot.
Just so you know.. My interests are firmly trenched with the Day 2 lynch. Town has a golden opportunity to lynch scum, and we all need to band together. Naturally you are welcome to join us.
Now. Just in case your post clutter has made it forgotten who the prime target for Day 2 is.
Let me remind you.
On January 06 2013 18:28 Mocsta wrote:
...
##VOTE: Jampidampi
...
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On January 07 2013 20:07 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Mocsta.
I'd also like to point out that atm town is losing, and so not accepting a course of action that leads to a 50% win-rate is silly.
We are behind, which in SCII would mean making riskier plays hoping to luck ourselves back into the game. I am yet to see a 50% win-rate option, and if I did see one I would take it immediately. Give me a coin to flip and I would gamble the outcome of this game on it, because right now we are looking at below 50%.
What we are actually after is the highest win possibility, which will probably be below 50% anyway I'm sure.
Furthermore, while statistics are very useful and I'm grateful we have someone like Sylencia around to produce them, they are currently being misused. You can't just remove your null reads from the equation, they still represent a percentage chance of being scum. Treating TeMiL as useless town when he is pretty much by definition a null read is ridiculous.
Wow.. you are doing your best to campaign for TeMiL arent you... you know..
Since you directed this post at myself.. i will personally do the courtesy of breaking this down into (4) components for you.
(1) On January 07 2013 20:07 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Mocsta.
(1)I'd also like to point out that atm town is losing, and so not accepting a course of action that leads to a 50% win-rate is silly. + Show Spoiler +Town is losing... odd logic? 7 players... 5 - town; 2 - scum... how are we losing?
If we vote off a scum player and 1 town dies from NK; we are left Day 3 with 4 (Town) and 1 (Mafia), does not sound like losing to me? Heck, even right now 5 to 2.. it doesnt look like losing.. This is such an interesting perspective you have Spaghetticus.
If I point you to the "guide to playing mafia" in the OP; A townies first priority is to establish innocence.. (the 2nd is to read posts; 3rd is to scum hunt)
Out of 7 players.. i have confidence 3 are innocent; have townish reads on 2, and scummish reads on 2.. doesnt look like a losing position to me?
TL;DR
How can town be in a losing position we we out number scum. 5 town to 2 scum?.. Even after a mislynch and NK, we are still outnumbered scum, 3 town to 2 scum..
Town is in a position to scum hunt.. make a calculated lynch decision...vote as one town... and lynch scum; paving our way to victory.
(2)On January 07 2013 20:07 Spaghetticus wrote:
We are behind, which in SCII would mean making riskier plays hoping to luck ourselves back into the game. I am yet to see a 50% win-rate option, and if I did see one I would take it immediately. Give me a coin to flip and I would gamble the outcome of this game on it, because right now we are looking at below 50%. + Show Spoiler +
Well Spag.. 50% just aint good enough for me as I suggested in the Sylencia vetted vote logic (linked above).
The objective of the scum hunt is to raise that % as high as positive, and I agree with OmniEulogy, we can get the top scum reads down to 2 or 3 players, thus increasing the probability to lynch scum to over 50%. A fine town goal to achieve.
Why are you against this again?
TL;DR
Town can achieve success through determined scum hunting, and joining our vote together.
This will set us up for a 4 Town, 1 Mafia Day 3. We need to join our votes together
(3)On January 07 2013 20:07 Spaghetticus wrote:
What we are actually after is the highest win possibility, which will probably be below 50% anyway I'm sure. + Show Spoiler +Agreed, we need the highest scum lynch possibility. We we use deduction, and eliminate sound town reads we can achieve 50% scum lynch rate. If we take a gamble, and eliminate null reads, we can achieve a 66% scum lynch rate (3 candidates, 2 = scum, 1 = bad town). If you disagree on using deduction to remove town reads.. let me point you to Spaghetticus from a former life. (Newbie Mafia 33.. btw.. you were town) On December 20 2012 13:26 Spaghetticus wrote:
"I dislike your post saying that we should "expect a town lynch". Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty. Your post reads like you're not going to even try to find scum."
Well.. i agree with a lot of this. Good towns can find scum, day 1, day 2 or day 3.. In fact it gets easier from Day 1 -> Day 2. We have a good town, so using your logic, we have no reason not to chase scum. Why are you advocating we vote TeMiL again?
TL;DR
By using deduction to remove good town reads. We can reduce the possible mafia players from 7 players, down to 3 or 4.. This increases our chance of lynching scum up to 66%.. We can increase this further by additional scum hunting.
(4)On January 07 2013 20:07 Spaghetticus wrote:
Furthermore, while statistics are very useful and I'm grateful we have someone like Sylencia around to produce them, they are currently being misused. You can't just remove your null reads from the equation, they still represent a percentage chance of being scum. Treating TeMiL as useless town when he is pretty much by definition a null read is ridiculous. + Show Spoiler +Well. we didn't just remove null reads. Read the Sylencia Vetted Vote Logic. We treated 3 scenarios. 1. The generic, 5 town, 2 mafia to consider. 2. The town perspective.. 4 town, 2 mafia to consider (don't incldue yourself.. assuming you are town) 3. The deduction perspective.. . 2 town, 2 mafia to consider. (with 3 recognised townies) We left the null reads in there.. interesting you didn't pick up on this Spag, especially for an analyst with a keen eye such as yourself.
TL;DR
Spag misquotes here, but we will give him benefit of the doubt. Perhaps real life led him to posting in haste.
Spag, thank you for sharing your thoughts. I disagree with your reasoning to vote TeMiL. I suggest town join forces on one lynch candidate.
BTW, Out of respect for TeMiL.. I need this to be clear.
I personally found this post of TeMiL,,
+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2013 00:02 TeMiL wrote:ive just make a chart with your connections. i want to know for each one your nationality and the country of residence, or maybe everyone are native from each country that TL says: TeMiL - Peru Sylencia - Australia Spaghetticus - Australia Mocsta - Australia StriX - Australia OmniEulogy - Canada jampidampi - Finland cDgCorazon - USA zarepath - USA i need to make some conclusiones with this information Show nested quote +On January 04 2013 23:50 Spaghetticus wrote:
@TeMiL
If you stick around after we're both out, I would like to talk to you also. //fluff :$
more useful to town than the Spag post I just broke down.
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Lol
whats the problem? I extracted the important component.
If i had somethign i hide, I would NOT have inserted the Date/Time stamp.
You are going to have to try harder than that.
Good you see your grasping at (very short) straws.
Fact...TeMiL's post, still has more value than yours...
+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2013 00:02 TeMiL wrote:ive just make a chart with your connections. i want to know for each one your nationality and the country of residence, or maybe everyone are native from each country that TL says: TeMiL - Peru Sylencia - Australia Spaghetticus - Australia Mocsta - Australia StriX - Australia OmniEulogy - Canada jampidampi - Finland cDgCorazon - USA zarepath - USA i need to make some conclusiones with this information Show nested quote +On January 04 2013 23:50 Spaghetticus wrote:
@TeMiL
If you stick around after we're both out, I would like to talk to you also. //fluff :$
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Not that it matters.
But I was searching your filter, and got it from here.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=386911¤tpage=26#501
Theres no evidence of Chromatically posting that in my quote (check the time stamps if you want to be meticulous; so your point is moot.
Any ways, nice attempt @ a diversion.. you have not addressed any of the points. Again, this revised post of yours is a waste of an F5.
LOL "if town does not outnumber scum, town loses by definition" of course, and right now, we outnumber scum.. hence.. town is not in a losing position.
Either way.. im not bothering with your feeble attempts to derail the thread, and the conversation
It is obvious, there is no value to voting off TeMiL due to probability.
Town, we are in a position to scum hunt...
make a calculated lynch decision...
VOTE AS ONE TOWN...
and lynch scum.
OmniEulogy and myself, believe jampidampi is the best candidate for lynch. We have expressed this with our vote.
If you think otherwise, please share your thoughts.
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Yeah thanks Sylencia.
Got lost in the moment.. but your right. its not helping.
Take ya time with the thread catchup, I will go watch a movie.
Hopefully we will have a bit more to discuss when you (+ the USA shift) are ready.
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Spag.. if you are still there.
For the sake of the town, Let us put the last 1 or 2 pages aside.
If I may ask:
You have made your position clear. You want OmniEulogy or TeMiL to be a candidate instead of jampidampi.
Is there a reason zarepath has not entered your crosshairs?
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wb zarepath.. have you read the thread; or just started?
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On January 08 2013 00:22 Spaghetticus wrote:
I would prefer any of the other three (including Jamp), but would not be entirely opposed to lynching Zare. I think there are better targets.
@Zare
Closing the game out for town. Closing town out of the game.
Spag. I am going to need you to re-phase (i.e. spell it out to me) because i can't make sense of your quote?
I assume other three = Omni/jampi/TeMiL??
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zarepath..
wb = welcome back
even though its nice to catch mafia by slips. it still cant be proven. so becomes not a waste of time, but.. hmm.. not a solid foundation for a case.
I noticed the exact same thing you did when Spag posted.
*why did I not bring this to the attention*
because, he can answer the way he just did.. us = town.
Good to know others are reading carefully though as well.
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On January 08 2013 00:45 Spaghetticus wrote:
Cheers Mocsta. I see Syl's words have moved you, I'll endeavor to be so objective.
I look forward to your new approach.
Could you please start by responding to this. [I am still uncertain of your intention / prime lynch candidate]
On January 08 2013 00:29 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2013 00:22 Spaghetticus wrote:
I would prefer any of the other three (including Jamp), but would not be entirely opposed to lynching Zare. I think there are better targets.
@Zare
Closing the game out for town. Closing town out of the game. Spag. I am going to need you to re-phase (i.e. spell it out to me) because i can't make sense of your quote? I assume other three = Omni/jampi/TeMiL??
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In regards to slips.. due to zarepath and now Sylencia.
"General Guide to playing Mafia"
In general, mafia don’t blatantly make “slips” that allow you to find them through any one given post, but you will often find one critical sentence or post that is the key to unraveling their motives.
Regardless, you have identified a variety of points, OmniEulogy does need to address this.
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Lol not so perfect anymore
*zing*
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While we are waiting for OmniEulogy to defend himself.
zarepath? whats going on with you? You joined the thread again over an hour ago, and haven't heard much from you.
For most people you are a null read, and hence, an acceptable lynch candidate.
I do not think your off the hook, because Sylencia has thrown a case at OmniEulogy.
In particular, Spaghetticus has been nonchalant to consider you... why should he choose somebody else over you?
Now that you have read the thread, I would like to know where you stand with all that has happened Day 2.
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@Syl
Not that Omni has replied.. Im not entirely satisfied but thats more to do with his style than the response.
I also appreciate he didnt spend 2hrs making a defense, and holding up the entire Day2 convo.
Take the below with a grain of salt.. because I am a feel player, definitely not a detailed analyst (and yes, Spaghetticus constantly is pointing that out.. and I will not contest)
I thought that a lot of your points while valid, whilst you described the actions as scum motivated.. in my head i could ratoinalise them as town.
I wanted to hear Omni defense.. because.. if he respectuflly brushed off your comments.. then it was simply miscommunication between two players (heheh.. almost identical to me targeting him day 1 actually).
my opinion is a lot of Omni play has been pro-town.
He has two peculiarities of play to me
(1) is the RB.. it just doesnt add up; but then again.. TeMiL/zarepath have said nothing (also.. if JK is around. mafia may have said nothign..)
(2) he was extremely overconfident after day 1 lynch.. . i think this was moreso to do with realising the bandwagon didnt take off (Corazon points this out as well in his final post)
Like i said.. im not a detailed analyst.. i barely use the coaches, and when i do. they tell me im wrong.
but when i read this.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=389091¤tpage=28#558
i just cant see how this guy could be scum.
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EBWOP:Not that Omni has replied
=
NOW that Omni has replied LOLz
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On January 08 2013 00:27 OmniEulogy wrote:
I was barely awake and just noted something in Jampi's filter that also incriminates him,
OmniEulogy.. now that your defense has been made.
Are you going to enlighten us with the evidence.
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EPT
