Aperture is hardly confirmed scum yet.
He might just have been too busy to contribute much.
some other people are also looking reasonably suspicious to me.

/zebezt

RockHydra

Pitcairn222 Posts

February 01 2013 22:46 GMT

#1438

I'm off to bed
have a good one all.

/zebezt

RockHydra

Pitcairn222 Posts

February 02 2013 09:39 GMT

#1466

good morning all.
Seems it wasn't a very busy night.
I agree on the analysis by aperture. This way is fairly subjective and it doesn't really show the bigger picture. Personally posts that are in the range -2 to 2 I dont wanna hear about.

I was surprise though, that

Well crossfire is my number one read but he's been discussed to death. I'll have a post explaining my next best read when I get a few minutes of downtime at work. In the meantime I'll contribute to discussions however I can. I will say I feel a bit better about AS now that he's a bit more into it. Right now I don't think Nova is scum so if X turns out to be town I'd bet on a double hydra team.

scored 4 / 3 scum points. If he wouldnt say "he's been discussed to death" you'd just accuse him of sheeping and give him even more points

What you should bash him for is saying he'll write about his next best read, but as far as I can see he never does. He writes a little about RH, but this is because he is asked specifically about RH by DFTP. What he writes doesn't really indicate that RH is his second biggest scumread.

When Aperture says he will write but he doesn't people freak out. But Stutters gets a free pass? Aperture actually tried with the PBPA, but stutters showed nothing.

/zebezt

RockHydra

Pitcairn222 Posts

February 02 2013 15:03 GMT

#1470

On February 02 2013 23:39 Clockwork Hydra wrote:

Show nested quote +

I am totally okay with you doing something too. Who is Xfire's partner in crime and why?

/Acro

Well by elimination really, I have CH, SMTP, DFTP and duh, myself as town, so that leaves Stutters, Nova and AS.

Of those three, I'm most inclined to see stutters as scum. As zeb pointed out, and both GreY and iGrok pointed out in his analysis, the flip-flop on my "entrance post" regarding the 0/X creatures is the epitome of a Lynch-all-liars policy and has obvious scum connotations (forgot what lies he told) with no clear town motivation behind the how or why that read changed.

In addition, saying he'll put together reads and then not doing so, (which marv says is right up his meta-alley,) is still freaking scummy. As far as associative cases, the "xfire has been discussed to death" is a good way to sheep without saying a goddamned thing.

AS is difficult to read as noted due to his scumhunting methods being "mechanical". While I think stutters is scummier, I am generally fearful of the power of AS's deck, so I'm comfortable sheeping an attack on him if people still feel he's the top candidate. Gonzaw's case is still quite good, but the assumption that random discards fucked up his play and that work is hectic kind of makes me want to stay my hand.

I guess that leaves me null of Nova? He hasn't given a whole lot to the thread (though he has a pretty good excuse for that), and I'd expect scum to be kind of forced to bus xfire. However, in his response to the case on AS:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17688758
he basically ends off with "kill xfire", AS needs more discussion. At the time I don't think xfires fate was sealed by any means, as scum he could have had the opportunity to sheep gonzaw's case, so I consider this to lean him towards a townread.

~Hopeless

RockHydra

Pitcairn222 Posts

February 02 2013 15:11 GMT

#1471

EBWOP:
Oh I forgot Bin in there. Also town, I'm running on the assumption that mafia actually want him dead.
~Hopeless

RockHydra

Pitcairn222 Posts

February 02 2013 19:36 GMT

#1510

yo, I'm back
Don't pat yourself on the back too much Gonzaw.. I mentioned the possibility of a bus ages ago

I have spend the day thinking about it too (well not the entire day, but way too much of it).
I'm going to be doing some analyzing now.. gonna be thinking about the following things:
Why did Xfire out himself so early?
Who defended Xfire? Who attacked him?
Why does Xfire play so badly, does he not get scum advice?
Why was Bin picked as scum target?
Who did Xfire defend/attack?

/zebezt

RockHydra

Pitcairn222 Posts

February 02 2013 20:42 GMT

#1512

don't bother me.. I'm writing a masterpiece!

RockHydra

Pitcairn222 Posts

February 02 2013 21:03 GMT

#1516

I'm Leaving Bin out as a suspect, since he seems town, unless he does not get killed by scum this attackphase.

Ok.. going with the questions I asked myself:

who did Xfire attack? Only CH. Who did he defend? Nobody rly. He basically didn't post much of anything.
Who attacked him in thread? Better question is, who didn't? Aperture did not go further then saying he looked "weird" along with nova. Stutters says he is on top of his suspect list, without going into detail why. Nova says he is looking more suspicious than stutters. SuckMyTopdeck finds him suspicious but also says
Crossfire's point on Clockwork arguing about putting too much power in one person's hands and then wanting power themselves (the zombie thing?) is essentially correct, I think. But it could well be Acro being egotistical.
and in the end goes with DFTP to pick Aperture as most likely scum.
Those are the people that attack him the least. Aperture and Suck come out looking the most suspicious based on this.
I noticed a back and forth between Gonzaw and Xfire about the 0/3 creatures that seemed to be mainly misunderstanding. Did not seem like something scum would set up amongst themselves? (what do other people think about this?)
On the other hand DFTP did attack Aperture instead of Xfire. Was he trying to protect a scumbuddy?
Why did xfire not figure out to sac his stuff to keep himself alive? Well obviously because he is bad at mtg, but didnt he have a scum QT where people could tell him things? Either his scumbuddies are not very involved, or not very good at mtg either. This seems to disqualify CH and DFTP who seem to have their shit in order and are very active.
People qualifying here are: Nova and stutters, know mtg, but are not very active. SuckMyTopdeck is relatively active but marv is not very savvy with mtg. Aperture seemed to be reasonably active during the last period and have good mtg knowledge.
Why was BinOnFire attacked? The most logical reason seems to be because of his deck. Oats is definately not the new Sherlock Holmes and MG didn't seem to do much analysis outside of the mtg stuff.
Who were the other best targets? It seems that CH with his strong deck and DFTP with strong thread presence would be the obvious choices. This would put some suspicion on them, because if they were scum, they would probably not kill themselves. However as I pointed out earlier, they probably would have coached xfire better.
Why did xfire out himself so early? Was this a deliberate choice by scum? If so, what could be the goal? By outing himself xfire gave town more time to look for the next scum. He was already under intense scrutiny, but dftp and suck still seemed to be on aperture and several others were not really outspoken on a choice. If it was a deliberate choice by scum I think the reason must have been because they were afraid to die before the beginning of the attackphase. They needed the extra life to survive longer. People wanted to see a flip, and killing xfire would be the easiest way to get one. Still, he a decent chunk of life left. What other explanation is there?
Maybe a rogue action? xfire is bored of the game and decides to go trolling. This would point to little activity in the scum thread. Nova and stutters are back in view.

Ok.. based on this analysis I have my list of scum suspects in order of most to least suspicious

Stutters (scores above Nova based on not delivering on a promised scumread)
Nova (will have to do a detailed read of his filter to see if I can bump him one up over stutters)
SuckMyTopdeck
Aperture
The not quite as good as Rock Hydra hydra
DFTP
BinOnFire

/zebezt

RockHydra

Pitcairn222 Posts

February 02 2013 21:38 GMT

#1523

On February 03 2013 06:26 Clockwork Hydra wrote:
Crossfire prolly outed himself because we made a bulletproof case on him and he's BY FAR not good enough a (scum) player to wiggle out of it.

Any assumption further than that is crazy tinfoil-hat talk.

~dandel

Well if it was bulletproof, why did Suck and DFTP disagree?
I agree though that any deductions based on this action are not very strong.

/zebezt

RockHydra

Pitcairn222 Posts

February 02 2013 21:49 GMT

#1525

lol
damn baboons!

RockHydra

Pitcairn222 Posts

February 02 2013 21:57 GMT

#1526

Just read through Nova's filter. Very little content except for a case on Suck. Case is decent, but doesn't even use the entire filter.
Stutters is still on top
Since you guys convinced me I shoulnt read too much into the early surrender by xfire, I will check Suck more closely as well.
Not right now though, it's late and I had some beer already.

/zebezt

RockHydra

Pitcairn222 Posts

February 02 2013 22:33 GMT

#1530

So you admit your meta changed?

/zebezt

RockHydra

Pitcairn222 Posts

February 02 2013 22:52 GMT

#1536

On February 03 2013 06:32 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:
I'm sure you see what I see.

I see it too
posted in QT for later proof

/zebezt

RockHydra

Pitcairn222 Posts

February 02 2013 22:53 GMT

#1537

Only 10 minutes to go and I can say what I see.. I guess I can stay up that long

RockHydra

Pitcairn222 Posts

February 02 2013 22:57 GMT

#1540

hmz.. I guess you see something different

RockHydra

Pitcairn222 Posts

February 02 2013 23:06 GMT

#1545

Ok.. new piece of information I wanted to share
Check out which people did not use New Frontier
CH (has no basic lands)
Stutters and xfire
wouldnt any decent scumbuddy have warned xfire to search for 2 lands to sac to destroy 2 more permanents?

stutters was the only one besides xfire that didnt notice the new frontier.

I dont think this coincedence

RockHydra

Pitcairn222 Posts

February 02 2013 23:07 GMT

#1547

ugh.. stutters did get em
damn
I need sleep

RockHydra

Pitcairn222 Posts

February 02 2013 23:09 GMT

#1551

the new frontier is done resolving btw.. so that is save. I checked with artanis

I'll be back tomorrow

/zebezt

RockHydra

Pitcairn222 Posts

February 03 2013 02:03 GMT

#1565

On phone, I will take care of attacking when I get home.
~Hopeless

RockHydra

Pitcairn222 Posts

February 03 2013 11:18 GMT

#1586

On February 03 2013 19:39 zebezt wrote:
Good morning all.
I don't have much time now, but I have a question, can the onslaught fetchlands be used to fetch a dual land?

/zebezt

nevermind. Googled it myself. I suppose it's possible xfire does run without basic lands then. Although I don't understand why he'd keep badlands instead of searching for a dual. But he obviously isnt very mtg savvy.
Not sure how much posting I will do today. Will see.

/zebezt