EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXXIII - Page 8
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cakepie
985 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 31 2012 09:04 Sylencia wrote: OH FFS ARE YOU SERIOUS WE JUST LOST A COP WHEN WE COULD'VE JUST WON THE GAME BY DOING A ROLECHECK ON EITHER ONE OF THE ROLEBLOCKERS. THIS SO VERY MUCH. WTF! | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
Chrom, I am so glad you were on point, because I had a fatal flaw in my logic that you saw through and pointed out in time. I knew that town RB had the game won as long as he did due diligence with the roleclaim logic. But I was wrong about who town RB was (and a whole boatload of other things to boot, as Hapa would know). | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 31 2012 09:45 Dandel Ion wrote: You could have known by looking at roleblocks by night 3 IIRC. This. But even with this information, you could not have safely come out to save FC anyways, even with my flawed logic. And we'd have lynched FC and found you easily soon after. Don't beat yourself up over it. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
I made exactly one breadcrumb. Anyone found it? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
In any case went back to look over what he did, and am sharing this analysis for the lessons to be taken from it -- we are all trying to learn in this game after all. Poor Orange, I really hope this game doesn't scar him for life and deter him from trying again in the future. Note: Hindsight is 20/20. This is not intended to assign blame. (We won, after all.) ----- So, I had a newbie cop read on him for the way he was behaving D1 -- patient yet uncertain, he gave me a vibe of waiting for something "concrete" and "convincing". On December 23 2012 21:16 Orangeremi wrote: However, none of my suspicions from then compare with how convinced I am with my D2 vote. After viewing Chrom's evidence towards Omni and then reviewing it myself, there's no way he's town. But he got really screwed over by the frame on OmniEulogy -- a wicked good play by scum right there. He does his due diligence based on mocsta's association case and his investigation result, but is cautious about the weakness of the case: + Show Spoiler + On December 22 2012 14:01 Orangeremi wrote: @cake I'm interested in his theory regarding you+OE+Chrom scum team, but I don't know how much credibility it has. And he definitely smelled the same thing that I did re:kickstart blue hunting: + Show Spoiler + On December 22 2012 17:38 Orangeremi wrote: The one thing I'm trying to figure out is his reaction to cake 'claiming blue role' and the possible implications. It's a very plausible towny reaction, but could it be something else? But he had to test the veracity of his investigation. Hence his reaction to the D2 mislynch: On December 24 2012 17:51 Orangeremi wrote: I'm flabbergasted that Omni turned town. This really puts a wrench in things for me. I did take note of how this alludes to mocsta's posts + Show Spoiler + On December 21 2012 22:21 Mocsta wrote: I do not mean this to be facetious; however I was genuinely not expecting that type of post from you. Its thrown a spanner in the works for me. I am going to have to digest this before jumping to a conclusion. Man I wish this wasn't Friday night, will look into it when I get home  On December 21 2012 23:26 Mocsta wrote: I do not mean this to be facetious; however I was genuinely not expecting that type of post from you. Its thrown a spanner in the works for me. I am going to have to digest this before jumping to a conclusion. [Sarcasm is not intended] I dismissed it as WIFOM, but was he trying to softclaim blue? In any event, by this time he had been relying too much on his PR and had not tried hard enough to do basic scumhunting in thread, and so has nothing to work with: + Show Spoiler + On December 24 2012 20:43 Orangeremi wrote: Chrom's going to come under pressure (understandably) but I do think we need to pressure the less active players come next Day phase. I'm really thrown for a loop right now and don't know what to think. Looking over filters and after recent events I'm stumped  On December 24 2012 23:15 Orangeremi wrote: I'm not really looking to throw names out there if I'm not confident after that lynch. I'm sticking with my statement that lurkers need to come out before anything else. I think the existence of framer drove his reverse psychology processes into overdrive starting around this time (which I noted in my town hypothesis on him) Fatal error: still does not do any useful scumhunting over the extra-long night phase. AND gets roleblocked by Chrom. Must be feeling really screwed over about now. This is what happens when you start looking scummy from not scumhunting at all! His gut feel is so close here!: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 01:59 Orangeremi wrote: I'm really curious if that's the best course of action, Corazon. You seem to just have a hit list that ultimately will lessen the size of town more than anything. Doesn't seem all too beneficial to me. The overwhelming vote count for Kick right now leads me to believe the scum are just hopping on his wagon. If he was actually scum, wouldn't the mafia would find another player to try and start a wagon for to save him. But that isn't happening. I think we need to reevaluate. In the meantime I'm going back to one of my initial reads. ##Vote: FatChunk But: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 02:06 Orangeremi wrote: Well we've just fucked ourselves by not finding any scum thus far and at this point we don't have many options. We cannot afford another townie loss. We need to be certain or very close to certain that our next vote is mafia. Y U NO SCUMHUNT? His guts were right, but I think he could have been leaning too much on the cop power as a crutch. So all he has are gut feelings on Kick, FatChunk, shz, and to a lesser extent, corazon. This sums up what I think was going on through his head as he switches votes -- muddled by reverse psych speculation: + Show Spoiler + On December 30 2012 01:14 cakepie wrote: When the voteswitch happens, he still really does not think scum would bus scum kick, and is convinced therefore that kick is town. But numerically, the only way to avoid kick being lynched was to hope that the alternative shz wagon would work -- the FC wagon, which he would have preferred, certainly wasn't going anywhere. This explains his exasperation at Chrom for moving from FC to shz. Which is a terrible shame, really, since it was the last straw that attracted all the attention onto himself, in addition to his incredible lack of scumhunting. He calls attention to the framer flip: And tries to confirm a cop in play: It goes unnoticed, and would be WIFOM anyway. On December 28 2012 10:01 Orangeremi wrote: We have a night to go through, and the options to lynch will shrink. It might be simpler to decide then. "Hey, without a framer around, I'll be able to do whatever I want and carry town to victory, right?" Wrong. Incredibly on point here: On December 28 2012 11:44 Orangeremi wrote: I'm not that stupid. I don't think any of the combinations are correct, but FC is most likely. But his partner ? As we now all know, he knew that he could not simply check FC, and then come out with his investigation on FC as basis to lynch FC. He did not have anything to back the case up with, and did not have the towncred to pull it off, plus he risked being killed in the nightphase for his cop claim. So he actually did the best that he could: try to find FC's scum partner: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 22:20 Orangeremi wrote: 1) I'm leaning towards neither, unless it's just bad scum play. If I had to choose, it'd be FC since he hopped on last and could use that fact as an excuse. 2) I wouldn't say I'm on chrom's case. I am suspicious because of that move, but his motives seem sound. I don't understand what Kickstart was doing AT ALL. The only thing I can think is that the rest of the mafia planned this lynch to avoid their own suspicion. The wagoners? I don't know, Syl and Aqua seemed to hop on that train with little initiative and rode it undercover. With what they've contributed, I'm surprised they haven't been nk'd yet. I still want to wait to see who gets killed tonight. I'm really curious who they'll pick. It was pretty clear to everyone that Aqua was going to get killed if he was town. So he checked Syl, and was prepared to finger Aquanim, if aquanim somehow lived. Too bad that his reverse psychology didn't work out correctly. Corazon had done a really good job of being hidden. And despite my townie hypothesis to support him coming out, he could not -- he had nothing! ----- I feel like if I had further developed my cop hypothesis, I might have found something. But that is pure speculation with the benefit of hindsight. Truth is, I did not have the clarity of vision to want to try to develop an Orange cop hypothesis, because a) I did not want to out blues, b) I had another competing cop read, c) I knew that in the absence of SK, town RB already wins the game for us. It's a good thing scum stuck to killing Aqua and not me. I don't even want to imagine the WIFOM if Aqua lived and orange fingered him. I can totally see Aqua and Corazon piling on to orange for the OMGUS value, and I don't know if Chrom would have enough clout to prevent a mislych of Orange. ----- GG orange. You tried to do what you could in N3, but it was too late. I hope we all learn from what happened here, and I hope it does not scare you from playing again. And we would all do well to remember not to rely too much on powers. Information gained from powers cannot be revealed openly until late in the game when a roleclaim becomes necessary. Fundamental scumhunting is bread and butter for town and blue alike, in order to build strong cases. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 31 2012 12:49 cakepie wrote: Fundamental scumhunting is bread and butter for town and blue alike, in order to build strong cases. Also brush and floss daily! So cheesy when I read it again. ----- I know I'm just a boring VT, but if anyone would go over my play and critique specific bits I would really appreciate it! I already know my logical flaw, which Chrom caught: FC could be anything other than RB and still lead to Chrom+Cora RB pair. I was tunneling too hard at FC as one of (scum RB, town RB, or VT) with confirmation bias from Syl's roleblock accounting attempts (town RB read) to see the other possibilities. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 31 2012 13:06 Hapahauli wrote: Also, while I really liked your roleblock analysis, be careful of making too many assumptions in your analysis. You had Syl pegged as the "town RB" and it was pretty clearly wrong. Try to avoid setup/blue-role speculation without very concrete and straightforward information. The game is more about scum-hunting than anything else. Yeah, that was a really awful flaw in the logic. Although I had thoroughly convinced myself that a town RB who had responsibly accounted for the roleblocked claims would clearly know who the scum RB was and could win the game out, I did not check off all the possible role-speculation possibilities, and relied too heavily on unreliable reads to peg the roles. With the benefit of scum QT I can now see the insane self-propagating bias that arose out of me asking FC for his reasoning, prompting his case against syl that only added more confirmation bias to my FC+syl RB pair read. Still a confirmation bias problem, even after pointing it out myself earlier in the game. =/ Before-lynch thought process:
----- On December 31 2012 13:28 Dandel Ion wrote: Sure, the mafia could have deduced him too, even earlier. But they didn't and there's really no reason to point their attention towards it. Some things you don't need to immedeatly share with everyone. This. Hapa kept reminding me that scum may not have figured everything out yet, with this being a newbie game. He was right. I kept assuming the worst, which was that scum had already figured the roleblockers out. They didn't, and we won based on that. I am acutely aware that I could have lost us a won game right there. If I had come out earlier with this BS logic, I think scumteam could have digested the information and tried to WIFOM play around it. Chrom might have ended up having a hard time convincing us (shz, sylencia and myself) given the suspicion that had been thrown his way for shepherding the shz voteswitch. So the timing was fortituous, in that scum did not have time to digest the information. Clearly, the effort is a step in the right direction, I just need to direct my efforts more carefully and efficiently. This game will serve as a reminder to myself to do just that. ----- On roleblocked claims: Coming out with the analysis too early was a mistake, but am I right to say that in general it is a good policy for roleblocked claims to be aired out openly? If townies don't lie about it, then scum are also forced to honestly declare when they are roleblocked... right? Is there any circumstance in which town would want to lie about roleblocks? I imagine it would be convoluted and would involve multiple powers, like in a theme game perhaps. The obvious downside is that the information is open for both town and scum to see, and I'm sure in a non-newbie game scum would have figured out our blues easily from the information available as of D4. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On January 23 2013 16:19 Aquanim wrote: I'd like to think that if Threesr hadn't been replaced by someone like Yamato but Orange hadn't been modkilled that his cop checks and Cakepie could still have carried it home, but I guess we'll never know  I'm fairly certain we'd still have tried to lynch Kickstart on D3 without Yamato replacing in -- I know that was my intention after reflecting on D2 -- but I can't be certain that we'd manage to take him down without the added impetus that Yamato provided. As it was it did come down to the wire; we very nearly mislynched Shz. Also if Threesr did not get replaced out but stayed in the game, I think he would have been a distracting, if not destructive presence, and it would be quite likely for us to waste a lynch on him at some point in days 3~5. Seriously, replacement OP. As for solving the game based on cop checks, I don't think it would have been likely at all -- investigations were very effectively stifled N1+2, and Orange certainly could not come out with a cop claim on D4 since he had hardly any useful information, plus the fact that we'd already lost our only protective role, the JK, when mocsta died N1. Also note that this hinges greatly on a successful lynch of Kickstart D3, otherwise the cop checks could not be trusted -- Orange himself knew there was a framer in play based on the Omni mislynch. Furthermore, Orange had pretty poor towncred by D4, due to voting with Kickstart, it would have been really hard to turn that sentiment around, he'd have had to step up his play incredibly to pull it off. On the other hand if things happened differently he might not have been under such heavy suspicion on D4, so who knows? Rather than Cop powers, I think it was roleblocks that played a far greater role in this game. In any case, Threesr staying in game would have given us quite a different dynamic, so it is really hard to speculate about what might have happened in that case. Last thing: you give me waaay too much credit, I nearly screwed us over with that last minute stuff. Seriously, Chromaticity had Corazon nailed even before I did, plus he used his role well; he really should get more props for that. | ||
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