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Newbie Mini Mafia XXXIII - Page 8

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 27 2012 15:31 GMT
#1135
On December 27 2012 08:08 Aquanim wrote:
So, Orange, who do you think we should be lynching today?

Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 27 2012 19:34 GMT
#1145
On December 28 2012 02:14 shz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 27 2012 23:38 Chromatically wrote:
On December 27 2012 13:42 shz wrote:
...

This is really hard to get a grip on and in no way I am confidend in this days lynch. Fuck.

Were you more confident in the other lynches?

Seriously, this is the definition of the "hand-wringy scum thing" that marv talked about with Kickstart in XXXI. It's a lot easier to take a stand as scum if you act really uncertain about it, and that's exactly what he's doing when he's pressed for reads.
Shz hasn't been confident in a single lynch all game. He nearly completely ignored the lynches d1 and 2, and didn't even vote for someone d2. Not only is this the scum trait of being uninvolved in lynches, it shows how the above quote is bs. There's no reason for shz to act all uncertain about todays lynch when he hasn't participated in any other lynch. By doing this, he also excuses himself from giving any confident scumreads, like he's been avoiding all game. He's being pressed for reads so he chooses the easy one but acts nervous to make himself look better when he flips town.

I would be up for a shz lynch. At the very least, I'd have a very hard time voting Kickstart because of this.


I explained why I'm not confidend. But being not confidend seems to be scummy, so if I just pull something out of my ass you will be satisfied? I don't think so, thats why I will not do it. I see the points on all the candidates, but I don't feel overly strong towards anyone. FC still didn't contribute anything. I would lynch kick and FC at least for t
he lurking and on top of them for leaning towards scum. But I'm not vonfident that they will flip scum, but at least flip lurker.

I will not spam two pages of player X IS 100% SCUM. That seems like your approach to his game.

Uh, two posts. I said that in two posts. Not spam.

The problem is that you haven't been confident in anything all game long. You have not taken a single stance all game. You didn't even vote on d2. D2 you blamed lurkers to excuse yourself for not having a a single strong scumread. There is NO reason for a townie to not even try to push their preferred candidate to lynch, but you didn't even vote. And now, you excuse yourself from having a scumread by talking about how unconfident you are. I would rather you spam "100% scum" than do what you're doing now.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 27 2012 21:56 GMT
#1151
Can someone debunk my crazy theory:

If we assume that all three scum are in this group (excluding myself, Aqua, Cora, and cake):
Kickstart
FatChunk
Orangeremi
Syl
shz

and we assume that certain people are not in a scumteam:
shz + Kick (Kick's top scumread was shz, pushed shz a little, shz will probably vote for Kick)
Syl + Kick (Syl was one of the first to vote for Kick, still voting for Kick)
Orange + FC (Orange is voting FC, has also voted him in d1)

The only possible scumteam left is:
shz + Syl + (Orange/FC)

I don't see any scumteam that doesn't include shz and Syl, and I see no scumteam that includes Kick.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 27 2012 22:10 GMT
#1154
But why would scum be bussing today? There's no reason to; a town lynch today practically guarentees a scum victory. Scum, especially new scum, wouldn't risk voting their buddies when the votes are this close and the victory is so near.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 27 2012 22:25 GMT
#1158
That's a good point. I think it's less likely though, given that Orange has voted FC before. Also, I think that Kickstart would have been a better bus candidate, given that he has 0 influence with the town.

In fact, I think that this, along with his other scummy posting, is enough to warrant a shz lynch today:
##Unvote
##Vote: shz
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 27 2012 22:29 GMT
#1159
Oh yeah, I actually forgot that FC voted Kick. FC's also probably not in a team with Kick, then, making my team more likely.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 27 2012 22:40 GMT
#1161
He hasn't been scumhunting or even caring about the lynch. d1 he sheeped some cases, d2 he defended Omni and didn't even vote. Especially during d2, there's no way that he's honestly scumhunting but is unable to find a scumread to vote on d2.
I'm on my phone, so I can't quote posts, but he's just very uninterested in who is lynched.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 27 2012 23:18 GMT
#1163
In fact, you can ignore the thing I posted. There's no reason for a townie to not care at all about the d2 lynch. No pushing, no voting, nothing at all. Not town behavior.
Voteswitch time, everyone.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 27 2012 23:24 GMT
#1166
You can ignore the thing about associations, shz is just scummier than everyone else.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 27 2012 23:41 GMT
#1169
Will there be a modkill or replacement for Kickstart?
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 27 2012 23:42 GMT
#1170
shz had no scumreads all of d2 and had no original scumreads all of d1. How is this town play? Everyone who's not switching to shz needs to answer this.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 27 2012 23:46 GMT
#1172
Kickstart had an original scumread in shz, who he pushed a little d2.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 27 2012 23:48 GMT
#1174
Also, shz hasn't presented any strong opinions on anything. FC, Orange, and Kick all at least gave opinions of players and justified them.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 27 2012 23:50 GMT
#1178
On December 28 2012 08:47 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 28 2012 08:42 Chromatically wrote:
shz had no scumreads all of d2 and had no original scumreads all of d1. How is this town play? Everyone who's not switching to shz needs to answer this.

Well... it's slightly more town than parking your vote on someone with no explanation who flips town, and then leaving without trying to learn anything or generate any new information. Which is what FC and Orange did, I believe. Same for Kick, with the exception that his vote was for Shz (who hasn't flipped).

I disagree that it's more town than that, first of all. Townies can be bad at explaining themselves or pressuring, scum are the ones who have a hard time finding scumreads.
Also, Kick didn't do that, and he's the one that we're lynching.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 27 2012 23:54 GMT
#1182
Of course that's what Kickstart does, shz has been his top read for a while and he'd vote in self defense anyway.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 27 2012 23:55 GMT
#1183
The Kickstart vote has to be a bus, if he's scum. There's no reason for him to try to swing the vote as scum.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 27 2012 23:59 GMT
#1191
Because I was set on a lurker lynch and I was less confident about my reads after Omni. I saw the "hand-wringy" thing that he posted and that put me back on him again. I should have said it earlier, yes.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 28 2012 00:00 GMT
#1194
Okay, I actually hate how all of these lurkers are jumping on the wagon.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 28 2012 00:11 GMT
#1206
I am terrible at this.
So this basically clears shz.
Orange and FC look very bad from how they tried to switch onto shz at the lat moment. They're really the only scummy players left in the game.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
December 28 2012 00:58 GMT
#1222
Mkay, here's my thought process:
Omni flips town after I was super confident in his scumminess. I was still suspicious of shz, but I was far less confident and think that a lurker lynch is better at this point. You can see that I was still suspicious of shz, I was posting things about that.
I vote FatChunk as pressure. The Kick wagon was taking off really fast and I wanted to hear from all lurkers today, so I put some pressure on him.
shz posts something that I find very scummy, I write a post about it and say that "I would be up for a shz lynch today". I start pushing shz more and become more confident in my read on him, far more confident than what I think about the lurkers. I then come up with my amazing pre-flip association theory that I pretty quickly realize is a bad idea and start pushing shz hard until the lynch.

So basically:
1. Tell people not to lurker lynch because of confidence in Omni
2. After Omni flip, think lurker lynch is good.
3. Not convinced on any lurker, see shz as way scummier.
4. Start pushing shz.

Why I changed from lurker lynch to shz: unconfident in any lurker reads, confident in shz scum.
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