EPTOn December 29 2012 08:57 Chromatically wrote:
My advice is to sheep Aqua.
My advice is to sheep Aqua.
Chrom, you are terrible for suggesting this, and had better have a good explanation for it.
We're far from home and dry yet.
Newbie Mini Mafia XXXIII - Page 6
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
cakepie
985 Posts
Chrom, you are terrible for suggesting this, and had better have a good explanation for it. We're far from home and dry yet. | ||
|
cakepie
985 Posts
Just out of the shower, give me some time to digest the new information. For now, I want to call attention to the fact that with the wagon at the critical 3 of 7 votes, and despite me being obviously around, I have chosen not to hitch the wagon to the horse, so to speak. Shz, syl: keep going, I really want to you guys in this discussion, and want to have your thoughts, now that we've calmed down from the D3 madness. roleclaims: not yet. I am still toying with the possibilities in my mind. | ||
|
cakepie
985 Posts
On December 29 2012 15:56 shz wrote: I can't, it's 7:55am and I haven't slept yet. If I can't sleep, I'll be around. Alright, but I will expect you to be back later. We do need all hands on deck this day phase. | ||
|
cakepie
985 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + 7 players remain: I see two most likely setup possibilities in my mind: - 5 town vs 2 scum, with town RB and scum RB or - 4 town vs 2 scum vs SK, with town RB, scum RB and one more blue role (I see cop more likely than X-shot vig due to framer.) Note 1: SK also aims to scumhunt early game, and wants to maintain town : mafia ratio within certain bounds while blending in. Note 2: one kill in N3 could have been an incredibly patient and confident SK, or a successful RB blocking either scum KP or SK KP. Do not discount the possibility of scum RB blocking SK. Remember, mafia start with the knowledge of alignments, but do not know the distribution of power roles to begin with. Thus far they have managed to take out mocsta, who stuck his neck out too far, but have subsequently gone after most threatening townies, who turned out to be VTs. How effective have mafia been with their RB? And if we have a cop, did the framer make a difference? The town PRs have an incredible amount of information, but we cannot squander this too easily. We cannot afford to out the blues if we may need them still. Likewise, it is important for PRs to really step up to the responsibility that comes with their role. As long as we don't mislynch into blue, we'll be in good shape for tonight. Caveat: we might also be in a different setup than the two I raised. so caution is still the best approach. tldr: Is there a watertight plan to win with very high likelihood, in any eventuality, any setup, with any scumteam, with the information we have? If not, then it is not time to roleclaim yet. | ||
|
cakepie
985 Posts
On December 29 2012 16:53 cakepie wrote: tldr: Is there a watertight plan to win with very high likelihood, in any eventuality, any setup, with any scumteam, with the information we have? If not, then it is not time to roleclaim yet. EBWOP: And any plan had better be openly discussed, scrutinized and endorsed before anyone jumps the gun with roleclaims. Unless you're about to die, in which case we will have to weigh the claim accordingly together with other arguments for/against. | ||
|
cakepie
985 Posts
On December 29 2012 16:02 cDgCorazon wrote: Lets just say you are right, and FC/Orange is 1 scum and 1 town. Who is the scum to you, and who is the town? Orangeremi for horribly lost town, FC for scum. I've been thinking and working on a bad townie hypothesis for orangeremi. Give me more time to organize my thoughts and put them down coherently. ----- A 3/7 wagon with no alternative candidates is no way to foster discussion and is not going to coax anyone to talk to us. On December 29 2012 08:57 Chromatically wrote: My advice is to sheep Aqua. ##Vote: Chromatically You are sorely mistaken if you think town can kick back and relax now and sheep the way to victory. Get out here and explain yourself, and then start helping. ----- @FatChunk At least orangeremi had some reverse-psychology reasoning thing going on with his voteswitch. Also, he switched off you onto shz. On the other hand, you left the Kickstart wagon and followed him onto Shz. You have not provided enough justification or reasoning for your switch. You have not sufficiently addressed the questions directed at you. I've got one more for you too: + Show Spoiler + Here at 8:50 you respond to my 8:49 post: On December 28 2012 08:49 cakepie wrote: shz is here, but obviously not likely to vote for himself. Aquanim is here. Who else have we got to work with? On December 28 2012 08:50 FatChunk wrote: i am here, lurking. are we considering switching to shz? So you are capable of refreshing webpages quite rapidly. Kickstart appeared at 08:50, causing Aquanim and myself to start flipping out. Orangeremi switched at 08:55. You switch-voted at 8:58. Never mind Chrom's case and wagon initiation; please justify how you can possibly switch your vote even after these two guys jumped in? Especially Kickstart, who was your other strong scumread besides shz. Do alarm bells not ring for you when you see the convenient timing of his appearance and vote? Why would you follow the voting of a strong scumread, even if the target of the switch is also a strong scumread for you? Did it not occur to you how bad it would look? ##FoS: FatChunk Speak up. Fearlessly, as you promised early in the game, if you be town. I want to get Chrom's ass in here right now, but once that is done, my sights are on you. Prove to me why we should not lynch you today or tomorrow. ----- @Orangeremi: get out here and talk to us. You've got some thoughts on FatChunk, depending on various hypotheses we've been tossing around: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 11:44 Orangeremi wrote: I'm not that stupid. I don't think any of the combinations are correct, but FC is most likely. But his partner ? On December 28 2012 22:20 Orangeremi wrote: 1) I'm leaning towards neither, unless it's just bad scum play. If I had to choose, it'd be FC since he hopped on last and could use that fact as an excuse. 2) I wouldn't say I'm on chrom's case. I am suspicious because of that move, but his motives seem sound. I don't understand what Kickstart was doing AT ALL. The only thing I can think is that the rest of the mafia planned this lynch to avoid their own suspicion. [snip] Care to expound? Also, go back and answer outstanding questions directed at you. I'm sure I had a few I wanted to hear from you about. FatChunk drew a lot more flak than you did for the D3 voteswitch attempt, and you might not be looking this bad if not for your two terribad N3 posts. At the very least, corazon and I are still looking at FC, and not tunnel-sheeping on you yet. Come, give us something to work with if you are town -- at least, you won't be faulted for not trying at this critical juncture, regardless of any poor play earlier. | ||
|
cakepie
985 Posts
----- Can we explain Orangeremi using a terribad townie hypothesis? D1: It's the first day, none of us really have very strong reads or high confidence in anything. Initial no-lynch is a not unexpected, and by the time he checked in again and actually put in a vote it was very late. The vote was not accompanied by any justification, but it was inconsequential anyway -- consider it as just a flag to indicate one of his top suspects. D2: Starts by sheeping onto Chromatically's OmniEulogy wagon, and stays put. Given the massive sheepfest that occured, we cannot hold this against orange. In any case, Chrom's case convinced him enough to overtake his own suspicions (on kick and FC) He shares some thoughts on Kickstart and FC when prodded, also asks me about mocsta's OE+chrom+me scum team theory -- some minimal due diligence following cues left by the deceased. D3: Confused, and feeling pressured due to Yamato directing suspicion his way. Indicates his concern about the Kickstart wagon: On December 28 2012 01:59 Orangeremi wrote: The overwhelming vote count for Kick right now leads me to believe the scum are just hopping on his wagon. If he was actually scum, wouldn't the mafia would find another player to try and start a wagon for to save him. But that isn't happening. I think we need to reevaluate. This is an attempt at trying to figure out what scum would do in the situation, some reverse psychology going on. He genuinely doesn't think scum would bus Kick, perhaps because kick is the most experienced player among all of us? Votes onto FatChunk, who he has had suspicions on before. When the voteswitch happens, he still really does not think scum would bus scum kick, and is convinced therefore that kick is town. But numerically, the only way to avoid kick being lynched was to hope that the alternative shz wagon would work -- the FC wagon, which he would have preferred, certainly wasn't going anywhere. This explains his exasperation at Chrom for moving from FC to shz. N3: Already looking bad from the failed voteswitch, frazzled from questioning, and feeling under pressure, he botches his answers to my questions. But there is undeniably another attempt again at trying to fathom what scum is doing. I should highlight: it's not like he doesn't have a history of trying to use reverse-psychology reasoning: + Show Spoiler + On December 20 2012 19:02 Orangeremi wrote: Completely reasonable. Clever, in fact. I'm happy you caught that, I never would've thought about it. I'm not sure what kind of rationale you're looking for. The only thing I can think of is how foolish it would be of me to post what I did if I were mafia. I'd have no reason to defend a non-mafia claiming to be one since he would be an obvious distraction and good lynch target for me to bandwagon without suspicion. + Show Spoiler + On December 22 2012 13:26 Orangeremi wrote: I don't like how Threesr is playing if he's town. He's helping very little and I could see him playing a reverse psychological scum the way he is acting. I just don't think the whole reverse psych thing has been working very well. Best stop trying to do that. @Orange: if you are town, you have got to make a last shot, and step it up, or we are all doomed. You've had some beef with fatchunk before, and voted him twice already -- sure some things have changed, but I don't see why is it hard for you now to at least scrutinize him and his play. If you are concerned about botching your answers from before -- well, come out and explain what happened. A townie loses nothing by being honest. See, when I carelessly made up cool story about sipping coffee while the voteswitch occurred, I got called out for it -- but a clear explanation in good faith can go a long way. Staying quiet is not going to help you, and most definitely does not help town, so the longer you remain clammed up, the worse it is for all of us. | ||
|
cakepie
985 Posts
Anyhow my vote was clearly to get you in here and has achieved its objective. Stick around, yah? ##Unvote I like the vote balance as is; under the 1 scum, 1 town hypothesis, both orange and FC have equal incentive to come out and talk to us. Let's hope we may learn something more, yet. | ||
|
cakepie
985 Posts
On December 30 2012 01:35 cDgCorazon wrote: Do you really feel like theyre both going to defend themselves? Orange hasn't even defended himself at all the whole game. FC has done a little work defending himself, but they've been inconsistent and weak. If you go out and attack Orange, he just kind of sits there and posts other things, pretending your argument is not even there. That's why I've been after him since D2. He's afraid to rise to the challenge of defending himself, and just hopes that no one notices his lack of defending himself. At least FC has done a few things to try to prove he's not scum, even if they aren't very convincing. I'm not saying FC is 100% town, but I think Orange is still the most likely scum, trying to get FC to be lynched. Well, being bad at defending oneself isn't a new problem in this game: + Show Spoiler + On December 20 2012 10:04 threesr wrote: Wow chrome is so good at defending me. On December 20 2012 10:04 threesr wrote: <3 chrome On December 20 2012 10:05 Chromatically wrote: You're pretty bad at defending yourself. On December 20 2012 10:05 threesr wrote: That goes without saying Of course, we know how that turned out. I don't want to read too much into ability or willingness to defend oneself. If attacking them did not work before, why should we expect continued attacks to yield any different results? The point of the 1 scum / 1 town hypothesis is, if we're making a terrible mistake with the theory of Kick/orange/FC scumteam, and one, or even both of them is innocent, they have nothing to lose in talking to us (we're close to lynching them!) and everything to lose by staying silent (we mislynch, shit happens, town loses). | ||
|
cakepie
985 Posts
A couple loose ends before I sign out for the night: 1. Can someone else try formulating a townie hypothesis for FC? Although I expect it will be quite a challenge. 2. Implicit in 1 scum/1 town is that there is one more scum hiding among the remaining five besides orange/FC. So, qualified scumhunt, gogogo. (Please clearly indicate that you are working on 1 scum/1 town assumption) | ||
|
cakepie
985 Posts
On December 30 2012 04:32 FatChunk wrote: Quick Q to orange: who is your 3rd scumread after myself? If you are town you should have a good idea. Now, being in my shoes, I am telling you that there is one more scum out there besides orangeremi. I know this isnt too helpful but please consider sylencia. And what are your reads apart from orangeremi and sylencia? We can grant that you were lazy and posted with very low frequency, but if you are town and care enough about winning you should be more concerned right now, and step up your play a bit. I'm not asking you to play with mocsta-exuberance or write super long posts like some of mine, but you'll need to give more reads and build better justification for your cases -- I can understand if you feel that writing more on orange would be beating a dead horse, but what of syl? Play to win. This means you play your best to help your team win while you are alive and in the game. Right now, assuming you are still playing to win, I can explain your play better with a scum hypothesis than a town hypothesis. I'm going to need more convincing before I will consider a Syl case stronger than a FC case. ----- @Sylencia you need to get in here and respond to Corazon [edit before post] oh good, you're here. | ||
|
cakepie
985 Posts
On December 30 2012 04:32 FatChunk wrote: Now, being in my shoes, I am telling you that there is one more scum out there besides orangeremi. I know this isnt too helpful but please consider sylencia. Actually, it is clear that you very strongly believe that orangeremi is scum, even if your justification is minimal. Care back up your strongest scumread with your vote? | ||
|
cakepie
985 Posts
My putting out the 1-1 theory has two key aims: - provides a failsafe in case orange/FC scumteam is a horrible mistake. It is pretty much a last chance for one or even both of them, if town, to step up and prevent this game from being basically lost by a mislynch on themselves. - it keeps the discussion going. The lessons of D2 are ever in my mind, and in D3 I did not manage to move the discussion despite my questioning. Let's be honest, we caught a lucky break from Kickstart's play. Sure both aqua and I explicitly said to push orange, then FC -- but I will not allow us to all vote orange and twiddle our thumbs for 48 hours! | ||
|
cakepie
985 Posts
General consensus seemed to have strongest suspicions on orange and FC, and a kick/orange/fc scumteam was at the forefront. Aquanim, Chrom both mentioned at some point that it is the simplest, most obvious solution. And I actually agree. But what if we're making a mistake, and one of orange/fc is actually really just a terrible terrible townie? Corazon has pointed out already: given the way orange and FC have played so far, if we simply continued to pile on huge pressure on them, they would not have readily or capably stood up as a townie, defended themselves, and made a case that would compel us to look elsewhere. Let's be clear about this. My predawn post unequivocally states: I am actually fairly convinced that FatChunk and Orangeremi are the most likely remaining scum, and that we saw very frazzled scum in mid to late D3 in the absence of kickstart. Occam's razor says this is the simple and obvious solution (yes, in spite of me raising the possibility that there is some complex masterplan behind it). But we need an environment where we are willing to listen to orange and/or FC, whatever they choose to step out and speak about. We must not drown out what they wish to say with continued accusations and arguments against them, and we cannot simply dismiss or shut out what they are trying to tell us. We've all seen their D2 and D3 play. If we pile on the pressure, they will simply clam up, and that is not going to help us. I am not saying that we should simply accept what they tell us. But give them a chance to speak, and think on it. Also think of it as insurance in case orange or FC turns out to be a mislynch -- at least, we'll have kept the discussion going in a useful direction. Right now, I still want to push both orange and FC to be lynched, in whichever order. But let's see what they have to say, shall we? At least, FatChunk has come out, and as you can see, I'm looking to get more from him. In particular, will he commit to a vote on orangeremi? If not, then who else is more suspicious? ----- I'll be back after lunch. | ||
|
cakepie
985 Posts
On December 30 2012 15:41 FatChunk wrote: Will post once more with lots of time before the lynch, but it looks like its me or orangeremi. thus i will save my post on sylencia, shz, for the next days' discussion. No, you may not survive till tonight, let alone tomorrow. We might lynch you yet, or you might be killed overnight, denying us the information. Give us your content on syl and shz NOW. If you are still around tomorrow and something changed, then you can update your views at that time. But everything you have, at this time, needs to come out now, and not later -- if you are actually town, there is nothing to be gained from holding back. | ||
|
cakepie
985 Posts
On December 30 2012 15:27 shz wrote: @cakepie: Okay. So if I understand your post correctly: You think FC and Orange are scum, but the 1-1 theory is there to provide for discussion before hopping on a wagon with 24h to go? Yes, and also as an insurance policy to make sure that we have information to work with in case one of them turns out to be a mislynch. No one should be trying to prove the 1-1 theory. It is not a case, it is a supposition, a platform to enable useful discussion. | ||
|
cakepie
985 Posts
On December 30 2012 13:24 cDgCorazon wrote: I kind of felt like the 1-1 theory seemed to be true. I honestly thought that we were going with it. I apologize for not being clear about the intentions behind the 1-1 hypothesis. I thought I made it clear in my predawn that kick+orange+FC was still the simple and obvious solution. Thank you very much for your Dec 20 8:37 post, too -- lest it seems underappreciated. ----- @ FatChunk On December 30 2012 12:33 cakepie wrote: you'll need to give more reads and build better justification for your cases -- I can understand if you feel that writing more on orange would be beating a dead horse, but what of syl? ----- @ all On December 30 2012 13:32 Chromatically wrote: I think that everyone agrees that the 1-1 thingy is possible or probable. I don't think that we should focus on it today, though. We can looks a associations and the like to find the second scum once we have a red flip, which we should focus on getting today. Let's try to lynch scum today rather than worry about lynching it tomorrow. Chrom is right (emphasis is mine). While we wait on more from FC, and anything at all from orange, let's not forget to work out who we should lynch first out of the two. Personally, I am setting myself a lynch-10h deadline to see what FC gives us -- he has promised: Will post once more with lots of time before the lynch And he'd better not try to ransom his life in exchange for the information he claims to have. | ||
|
cakepie
985 Posts
| ||
|
cakepie
985 Posts
On December 29 2012 16:53 cakepie wrote: This is setup speculation. It is intended provide information that would help decide whether it is right to role claim or not. It is not intended to guide our continuing scumhunting discussion. + Show Spoiler + 7 players remain: I see two most likely setup possibilities in my mind: - 5 town vs 2 scum, with town RB and scum RB or - 4 town vs 2 scum vs SK, with town RB, scum RB and one more blue role (I see cop more likely than X-shot vig due to framer.) Note 1: SK also aims to scumhunt early game, and wants to maintain town : mafia ratio within certain bounds while blending in. Note 2: one kill in N3 could have been an incredibly patient and confident SK, or a successful RB blocking either scum KP or SK KP. Do not discount the possibility of scum RB blocking SK. Remember, mafia start with the knowledge of alignments, but do not know the distribution of power roles to begin with. Thus far they have managed to take out mocsta, who stuck his neck out too far, but have subsequently gone after most threatening townies, who turned out to be VTs. How effective have mafia been with their RB? And if we have a cop, did the framer make a difference? The town PRs have an incredible amount of information, but we cannot squander this too easily. We cannot afford to out the blues if we may need them still. Likewise, it is important for PRs to really step up to the responsibility that comes with their role. As long as we don't mislynch into blue, we'll be in good shape for tonight. Caveat: we might also be in a different setup than the two I raised. so caution is still the best approach. tldr: Is there a watertight plan to win with very high likelihood, in any eventuality, any setup, with any scumteam, with the information we have? If not, then it is not time to roleclaim yet. I forgot one more possibility that looks balanced: + Show Spoiler + - 5 town vs 2 scum, with town RB and scum RB, and cop and godfather. | ||
|
cakepie
985 Posts
On December 30 2012 16:54 cDgCorazon wrote: Maybe I'm putting too much time into this game =P You and me both, good sir. This game is an incredibly scary time sink. | ||
| ||
