EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXXIII - Page 2
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FatChunk
Canada93 Posts
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FatChunk
Canada93 Posts
On December 27 2012 18:22 cakepie wrote: The town who may be among the lurkers are in fear that whatever they can bring to the table now will not be enough, and they fear getting mislynched, what with how we did on the first two days. So ironically while we are pressing them for substance, we cannot hope for much substance anyway. If they have been playing lazily, the task of catching up, and then stepping up to the plate, can be too daunting. I literally just kept delaying posting for this reason. I have been quite lazy. OMGUS? First, I'd like to address something that gave cakepie a scumread on me: Me lynching omni for information. In that post of mine I prefaced the post with such a statement. I later began to develop why I think this would be a good lynch, followed by stating that I had a scumread on him. The town flip on omni makes us doubt Mocsta's cases on chrom and cakepie, and helps us look at relationships omni has with other players. My scum reads are for Kickstart, and orangeremi, and sHz. Followed by Sylencia. basically, the lurkers. Now i realize this is hypocritical because i lurk too. I think that mafia have let town go crazy and lynch themselves while they wait in the back on a weak LAL policy. But I think we're all learning now - posters that are coming active NOW are the ones trying to establish themselves as town (sHz, orangeremi,). I guess kickstart is an exception though, busy holidays? no defense whatsoever can't be smart. Kickstart: -Basically in the early game he makes the vote on the spag train to a town lynch. -Is very narrow-minded in whom he suspects scum. Poor scumhunter, makes a small effort in the vein of "I'll make a weak case against someone for them to shut it down, so that i look like a scumhunter!" against cakepie, shz. -His reads are basically shz. nobody else except a well-deflected stand against cakepie. Kick: who are your other two scum reads besides sHz and why? -bandwagonner -no effort to help town sHz: -One of the players who is attempting to establish themelves as town. -after 2 days of afk from christmas, shz posts: + Show Spoiler + On December 27 2012 13:42 shz wrote: while Orange declared him scummy on a few occasions but never actually voted or applied any real pressure. I don't think that anyone actually looked into Kick because of him, which could be a very clever scum-play. But is it? I don't know. I'm not sure if we could actually get any information on their relation if we lynch any of them. But I don't know if we actually could gain more information by lynching anyone else, and out of all the lurkier players, he seems to be the scumiest. I will probably vote for him. At this point, no one is a safe bet, but the safest seems to be Kick. This is really hard to get a grip on and in no way I am confidend in this days lynch. Fuck. -very mild reads, not confident in his scumread on kick. basically 50/50 read. What happens if Kick turns town, he looks like scum. if kick turns scum he looks like scum because he tried to save kick. Orangeremi: -my third suspect, basically the same as all the other lurkers -suspects me early on, with no explanation why. He just agrees with the case that Chrom put forward, and then claims that its his suspicion. why? because he has to pick another player in the lurkers to keep the attention off himself and his team. Is forcing it now to get pressure off his back. -one-sentence scum reads on players who are already under suspicion. -forced town-sympathetic posts of frustration. And regarding the discussion question: Chrom: i used to have suspicions on because he would aggressively twist my words and throw them back in my face. but I now realize that this can just be the aggressive nature of a towny. Has had some pretty good logic and scumhunting, however, like everyone else, has been wrong 100% of the time. Honestly, the effort put into this game makes me think he's town. From what I can tell he is the best scum read for alot of us: ##Vote: Kickstart | ||
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FatChunk
Canada93 Posts
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FatChunk
Canada93 Posts
##unvote ##Vote: sHz | ||
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FatChunk
Canada93 Posts
Chrom made some interesting observations about sHz, enough to cause me to make my read slightly stronger about sHz than Kick. After all, kick was a lurker more than anything, and scum lynch > lurker lynch. I was pretty confident in following someone with town rep like chrom, especially someone who is willing to risk his town rep on a scum read. but at this point I think that sHz is cleared, right? if shz was scum, Kickstart, a player with some experience, would not accuse sHz of scum that early in the game: it is just bad play. Unless kick was making bad cases to be shot down and appear to be scumhunting. Distancing himself from fellow scum? I don't know. Orangeremi, kickstart's scum partner, chooses to try and swing the vote toward sHz as a last minute attempt. His explanation is that he didn't think kickstart was scum, and that he voted me to judge my reaction. | ||
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FatChunk
Canada93 Posts
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FatChunk
Canada93 Posts
I went back and read the comments from ~page 63 on and will address comments made regarding my play: @Chrom regarding shz's post on 27th the post i referred to regarding shz was a different one. Dec 27 13:42. Scummy to me because he is lynching for information, and and declares kick the scummiest and decided that he will probably vote for him. no confidence, no assertion. No confidence in lynch at this point in the game - what does this mean? can we never trust shz's sheeping vote for his own opinion? Note that this is pre-lynch. @cake, all My vote for shz was prompted by chromatically. Quite simply, I thought that sHz would be a better lynch and the decision was not based solely on shz's post I am referring to. I wanted to stand by my read at that point in time. 5-3 to 4-4 would result in kick being lynched anyway, and it was clear that only one of the two were scum. My read changed based on posts from chrom, kick, and so my vote changed. i.e. to sHz. I didn't think about the repercussions of voting so late, and to be honest, I probably would have still made the same decision. I sheeped to Chrom on the premise that scum reads come before lurker reads. And to those saying I never mentioned kick in early game, it's cause he didnt do anything (@chrom). we had all focused on hunting scumreads over lurkers. He flew under my radar, just like the other lurkers. This point is null to me, as everyone has done this at one point in the game. @Corazon I made a post that you missed, regarding how I changed my read on chrom based on the agressive townie hypothesis. The OE/chrom scumteam was quickly discarded as to chrom's defense. But you're saying that I am scum, changed my "read" on chrom to town read just so I can sit back and hope that chrom picks the townies to lynch under poor evidence? That would be awful scumplay. @Aqua's case You keep attacking me and making it seem like the reasons for my decisions are influenced by one single line that I typed. he says i switched my vote to shz because of shz's post a day ago, when I never actually stated that I thought 1) kick was my top scumread, 2) shz was less scummy than kick. My inability to contribute is because im lazy, and I post basically once a day. Take from that what you like, but I'm not breaking my back over this game like the rest of you. OJR: On December 28 2012 22:20 Orangeremi wrote: The wagoners? I don't know, Syl and Aqua seemed to hop on that train with little initiative and rode it undercover. With what they've contributed, I'm surprised they haven't been nk'd yet. then.. On December 28 2012 23:17 Orangeremi wrote: Why haven't they been night killed yet? I'm trying to figure it out. I suppose mocsta and yamato weren't bad nightkills, but I think these players (maybe aqua more than syl) should be up there. No reasons for the things he says. Town read on aqau/syl. He's after me, initially as a pressure vote, now as a lynch vote because I'm the only other option. Quick Q to orange: who is your 3rd scumread after myself? If you are town you should have a good idea. Now, being in my shoes, I am telling you that there is one more scum out there besides orangeremi. I know this isnt too helpful but please consider sylencia. Quick note: has town read from orangeremi - attempt to distance himself and give sylencia final shot to win as he gets lynched. Maybe I'll write something up on him before I get lynched. At this point the kick/shz interplay simply tells me that there is no way shz is mafia unless kick is a mastermind genius, planning this from day 1. If I missed anything please ask again later. | ||
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FatChunk
Canada93 Posts
There were numerous posts by you before i changed my vote to sHz: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 07:25 Chromatically wrote: That's a good point. I think it's less likely though, given that Orange has voted FC before. Also, I think that Kickstart would have been a better bus candidate, given that he has 0 influence with the town. In fact, I think that this, along with his other scummy posting, is enough to warrant a shz lynch today: ##Unvote ##Vote: shz On December 28 2012 07:40 Chromatically wrote: He hasn't been scumhunting or even caring about the lynch. d1 he sheeped some cases, d2 he defended Omni and didn't even vote. Especially during d2, there's no way that he's honestly scumhunting but is unable to find a scumread to vote on d2. I'm on my phone, so I can't quote posts, but he's just very uninterested in who is lynched. On December 28 2012 08:18 Chromatically wrote: In fact, you can ignore the thing I posted. There's no reason for a townie to not care at all about the d2 lynch. No pushing, no voting, nothing at all. Not town behavior. Voteswitch time, everyone. You influenced my vote to be moved to shz. sHz was not caring about the lynch, he sheeps, and votes null. I was sheeping kick. They were both top scum reads to me and so I thought either would be a fine lynch to get either, especially with you backing that switch too. cake i can do that, sure. ##Vote: Orangeremi Regarding who my reads besides orange and syl? the rest are probably town then. Am I missing something? I am still a little suspicious of shz, kick could have easily attacked shz early to get shz far after he [kick] gets lynched for lurking. Will post once more with lots of time before the lynch, but it looks like its me or orangeremi. thus i will save my post on sylencia, shz, for the next days' discussion. | ||
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FatChunk
Canada93 Posts
So I said I'd give something on sylencia. I don't know how this guy has been allowed to lurk for as long as he had, only to come forward when the scumhunt begins to target the lurkers. This happens roughly @ December 24th and on Early Game: + Show Spoiler + On December 19 2012 11:55 Sylencia wrote:Not saying I'm always going to be busy, I was just stating that you might consider me a lurker for now but that's just due to the schedule I have over the 2 days in which this period runs. I wasn't using it as an excuse to try exclude me from a vote. -says he will be afk, and may be considered a lurker + Show Spoiler + On December 20 2012 14:05 Sylencia wrote: In the case of voting for Corazon - this is the easy path for me, I can simply sheep and jump onto the corazon train but I don't know if that's the right way either. He was targeted early, but this was due to the lack of reads at the time and I think that scum have jumped onto the opportunity to get someone out easy, and honestly to me the thing with Corazon is that while he is defensive, he is still clear with what he is saying and is direct in replying to things which are targetted at him. Downside is he did make a slip, and it most definitely could've been subconciously done and I don't know if I should overlook that or not - since I learned from last game you should go with the most obvious pick from the most obvious reads. I chose to ignore it last time and I paid the price by losing us the game essentially. Fatchunk I still have no idea about, I read his filter but I didn't get much from it. I really hate this, but for now I am leaning towards Corazon, since I don't want to be ignoring 'obvious' tells like I did last game. ##Vote cDgCorazon I can still change my vote for the next couple of hours before I leave but at the moment this is where I stand -sheeps threesr, then corazon (the easy lynches). In this post he basically says he doesn't have a scumread on corazon, and then votes him anyway because he wants to sheep. In the post right after that one he blames it solely on corazon's scumslip. Mid Game + Show Spoiler + On December 22 2012 21:10 Sylencia wrote: I would say I would stick to Cora, but it's really hard to say objectively since it's already in the past and there's some bias now as to my thought process. -He still claims that corazon would be his day 1 vote after the death of Mocsta. This post seems really safe to me, and shows that he has no reads. -This is followed up by lots of maybe reads, being pretty sure about something, etc. -He is basically doing, in the mid game, the same thing that everyone was persecuting shz for. + Show Spoiler + On December 24 2012 02:54 Sylencia wrote: Why are you STILL bandwagoning onto someone else rather than voting on someone you think is scum? At the very least, why are you not at least making a case on Cora rather than making these claims and leaving them be? Your day 1 vote was apparently a pressure vote which turned into believing what people said., but now we're on Day 2 and been defending yourself against the pressure laid against you and Chrom - however unlikely the links were - but you never thought to bring up any more points against Cora, rather you just say that he is scum and vote for who everyone else is/was again? ##vote Omni -Seizes the opportunity to "put" omni under suspicion. Claims he has a <100% scumread on omni. Then cakepie's post about omni. Sylencia then changes his vote to omni. The reason I think this is odd is because he is attacking someone for bandwagonning instead of voting for your scumread. Late Game + Show Spoiler + On December 26 2012 12:49 Sylencia wrote: Yamato seemed to back up my thoughts on Kickstart playing the opposite game to his usual, which is not something I would expect - so for now my vote goes to Kickstart since he was my 2nd most suspicious player after Omni. ##Vote Kickstart -suspicious of Kickstart based on a two-sentence post saying he thinks kick is supicious: [spoiler]He says, "Kickstart: Hard to say, since it's a complete opposite to last game where he posted a lot and was very active, he did make a case, but it didn't really cover too much new information it was the same as what Aqua already said, just reflavoured."[spoiler] Then he claims that yamato comes on with fresh eyes and convinced him of kick's guilt. Isn't this a little bit odd? It's like he notices the town view moving in one direction, then banks on one of his previous one-liner reads that would satisfy the equation. Recent day or so: He votes orangeremi as his highest scum read. Then he easily switches to me because town is leaning that way too. Basically I think Sylencia is a hypocrite, and he is playing way too safe. He has no original scumreads and is a heavy bandwagonner. Consider his votes: D1:Corazon D2:Omni D3:Kick Aside from corazon, has voted for each lynched player. The Corazon lynch wasn't taking off yet he decided not to switch his vote. Spag, most likely one of sylencia's town reads, was lynched. Now I know this doesnt really mean anything but it's worth mentioning his targets. I guess it seems like he hasn't been examined hard enough and has been allowed to fly under the radar. Sure, he hasn't had any ridiculously scummy plays, but isnt that what mafia goes for? It's the subtle things that matter. These days, all the flak has gone to me and orangeremi and he's happy to just sit there and lynch his teammate. It would be smart for mafia to bus either myself or orangeremi, because if either one of us town the other one is screwed. I can tell you right now that the 1-1 theory is probably true, but my opinion means little at this point, right? BTW. I repeat; was role blocked last night and the kill went down. So either A) i'm not scum, or B) One of me and remi, or neither of us are scum and the town RB chose the wrong player to roleblock. In this case, look for the last scum(s). Hence my post. | ||
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FatChunk
Canada93 Posts
He didn't even address the spag lynch. He stayed on corazon and let spag get lynched. Since he didn't vote for spag, i assume he had a town read on spag, yet he didn't do anything to defend him | ||
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FatChunk
Canada93 Posts
@cake Well I've been claiming town all along. so yes, I am VT. | ||
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FatChunk
Canada93 Posts
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FatChunk
Canada93 Posts
Kick was like, at :58 before the lynch of him or shz: FC GET IN THERE AND CHANGE YOUR VOTE. so I did. I thought it'd be a no-lynch or at least maybe a lynch for shz, but i was also trusting kick to know better cause he'd played before. Hilarious in hindsight. GG Cora thanks for carrying us. sorry for sucking. | ||
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