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On December 27 2012 06:05 kushm4sta wrote:
So hapa let me get this straight: im scum if djo flips town. im also scum if djo flips scum.
Yep.
In the beginning of the game you said, and I paraphrase,"Im fucking awesome guys but my only weakness is I always think active people are town."
Then you proceeded to use activity for every town read and also your own defense.
And this makes you not-scum why?
Anywho, I have family over so I'll be away until the deadline. Peace.
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On December 27 2012 06:11 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Wait, Hapa, you would seriously lynch kush over me if djo flips scum? Wtf?
Just twisting some titties. Again, if djo flips scum, I'm much less sure on the 2nd scum, but yes I'd lean to lynching Kush.
That's if djo flips scum of course. Does that seem likely at this point?
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On December 27 2012 06:12 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Like, that makes no sense at all. If Djo is scum, I'm fucking 100% guaranteed scummer scum.
Uhhhh. That's a pretty odd path of analysis.
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And goddamnit I need to leave. See you post-flip
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On December 27 2012 06:17 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2012 06:14 Hapahauli wrote:On December 27 2012 06:12 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Like, that makes no sense at all. If Djo is scum, I'm fucking 100% guaranteed scummer scum. Uhhhh. That's a pretty odd path of analysis. No it's not. Djo kush makes no sense, djo jx makes no sense. djo me makes much more sense.
So you're going to vote yourself if Djo flips scum? >>
On December 27 2012 06:18 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
@Kush + JX
If you're both town and think Hapa is scum, vote for Djo right now for witchcraft. Both of you. If you guys are town, djo wins the election and I don't.
Let's not get carried away here. You're introducing too many variables. All we need to do right now is confirm Djo's alignment.
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Ok I didn't actually expect that to happen. So who would be scum #2... My thoughts and more tonight.
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On December 27 2012 07:17 ghost_403 wrote:
Well, good news everyone! I guess scum really didn't have a silver bullet left. That's fantastic. I was like 90% sure I was going to die on the spot.
Obviously, Djo is confirmed scum. Lynch him first and then worry about his partner. I've been thinking that MrCC is his scumbuddy based on everything that happened Day 3, but that's just me. When I get back to Ohio, I'll spend some more time poring through all of that for my final thoughts on the matter. As for right now, we have plenty of time to figure out what's going on. The important thing is don't rely too heavily on the blue roles. Scum hunting should be able to end this game for us no problem at all.
And I've randomly selected my actions from make myself a veteran, RB'ing our dear friend Djo, and JK'ing whoever is left. GL guessing what I've done, scum <3
Nah. I was pretty comfortable with the plan given that I didn't die when I claimed your check. At that stage of the game, everyone saw me as town anyway.
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On December 27 2012 07:26 JieXian wrote:
wth I was expecting hapa and mrcc together.
I find it funny how it's about how it's about voted for witchcraft and we have a player named ghost.
You were convinced it was Me and CC pre-flip. Why is this impossible in your view now? Couldn't a hypothetical CC/Hapa scumteam just be lying about this?
And btw, no one answer this for him.
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On December 27 2012 14:10 JieXian wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2012 07:32 Hapahauli wrote:On December 27 2012 07:26 JieXian wrote:
wth I was expecting hapa and mrcc together.
I find it funny how it's about how it's about voted for witchcraft and we have a player named ghost. You were convinced it was Me and CC pre-flip. Why is this impossible in your view now? Couldn't a hypothetical CC/Hapa scumteam just be lying about this? And btw, no one answer this for him. If even you believe that, I can't help but to agree lol lol so are you going to do the honours and vote yourself tomorrow?
I'm testing to see if you're thinking. You did not pass the test.
A CC/Hapa scumteam is impossible based on how the witchcraft actions went down. I'll give you another chance to find out why.
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Question. Do you believe ghost is confirmed town?
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Decided to filter dive Djo a bit:
Regarding JieXian
As much as I'd love to lynch JX for being an idiot, he's probably not scum. Djo goes after JX with such persistance in his filter that JX pretty much must be town. Djo is pretty much trying to get JX lynched in every phase/day of the game. Unless this is the most persistant bussing-attempt ever, JX is town. It's my general feeling that JX is playing far too suicidal to be scum anyway. It seems to fit.
Regarding Kush
Djo bombs cases on Kush throughout the game, Kush is similar, and his contributions (only major contribution) are his cases on Djo.
I can't dismiss a double-bussing possibility (Kush/Djo scumteam would be capable of this). Such a plan would be plausible, because Djo really never followed through with his cases on Kush in any meaningful ways, and Kush, given the opportunity to secure a Djo lynch at the end of D3, consolidated on Eywa- instead.
Is this likely? I'll have to look into it some more, but I doubt it's the case. For one, Djo seemed to be very genuinely threatened by Kush's case and started spamming "scumslips" in an active attempt to discredit Kush:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=386816&user=284165¤tpage=12
The above doesn't seem like a scum vs. scum interaction.
Regarding Mr. CC
Mr. CC is really the only one that's left. He's been behaving really townie in my eyes, so I'll have to comb over a kush/djo double-bus possibility some more. Of the 3 players above though, it feels like he has the highest chance to flip scum, activity or not.
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Oh, and for the sake of completeness, there is no possible way (short of a town-Djo fucking things up royally) that Djo flips town.Why?
1) CC would have won the election if Djo was town.
2) The above has to be true - there is no combination of two other scumteam members that could account for Djo getting framed. "Possibilities" are explored below:
Scumteams not involving Mr.CC
Any scumteam not involving Mr.CC means that Mr.CC is telling the truth about not winning (after all, he would have no reason to lie as town). Therefore, no scumteams not involving Mr.CC make sense.
Mr.CC/Hapa scumteam - Impossible
Impossible. Ghost would be town here, and he would have no reason to lie about winning the elections. I (hapa) cannot be scum in this setup, since no one else voted for Ghost yesterday.
Mr.CC/Kush - Impossible
In this setup, myself and ghost are town. Ghost has no reason to lie about winning the elections, therefore Djo could not have voted for Mr.CC
Mr.CC/JX - Impossible
Same reasons as CC/Kush
Mr.CC/Ghost - Impossible
Impossible, since I am town in this setup again. I would have no reason to lie about my green check on Ghost.
Also by similar logic, I am confirmed town. Wheeeee!
Since Djo is guaranteed to flip scum (as discussed above), one of ghost and I have to be town.
We cannot both be scum, since Djo is scum (and there's only 1 more scum)
Ghost cannot individually be scum, since I DT checked him (I have no reason to lie about this as town).
Hapa cannot be individually scum, since Ghost won the elections and no one else voted him (again, ghost has no reason to lie as town)
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On December 27 2012 16:29 JieXian wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2012 15:35 Hapahauli wrote:
Question. Do you believe ghost is confirmed town? yes but that won't confirm your alignment at all because if scum won the elections, he could have claimed the DT check.
If Ghost is confirmed town, I am confirmed town as well, due to the analysis below:
Also by similar logic, I am confirmed town. Wheeeee!
Since Djo is guaranteed to flip scum (as discussed above), one of ghost and I have to be town.
We cannot both be scum, since Djo is scum (and there's only 1 more scum)
Ghost cannot individually be scum, since I DT checked him (I have no reason to lie about this as town).
Hapa cannot be individually scum, since Ghost won the elections and no one else voted him (again, ghost has no reason to lie as town)
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Oh, and regarding the possibility of "rogue townies" voting for Ghost, that's implausible. Unless you voted for ghost (and it doesn't sound like you did), every other player here agreed to my plan. Unless anyone would like to claim otherwise, there were no rogue players, and I'm confirmed town.
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On December 27 2012 18:05 JieXian wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2012 16:53 Hapahauli wrote:
Oh, and regarding the possibility of "rogue townies" voting for Ghost, that's implausible. Unless you voted for ghost (and it doesn't sound like you did), every other player here agreed to my plan. Unless anyone would like to claim otherwise, there were no rogue players, and I'm confirmed town. Lol you do know that it's not in kush's advantage to publicly claim it because it'll damage the credibility of djo's read and his safety, since kush had a scum read on DJo. Furthermore kush won't have the power to convince Djo to not go along with the plan, because djo was expecting to be a confirmed townie , and ghost doesn't seem to be around at all. There are hints of his suspicion about you: Show nested quote +On December 24 2012 11:36 kushm4sta wrote:
This witchcraft manipulation thing: Can you summarize your proposal so I can just read it and understand wtf you are saying? Because right now it doesn't make sense to me at all.
Cheesecake/djo does not feel right. Cheesecake's hard defense of djo definitely has scum motivation, but it's not a scum-like thing to do.
This shit with you jking me and preventing a NK. It rubs me the wrong way.
-If I were scum hands down I would kill ghost. Confirmed town at this stage of the game is huge.
-You are wrong about ghost flipping green confirms you green. Hypothetically if you are red and ghost is green, what else would you do? You wouldn't call him red if he's green.
What the hell are you talking about? Kush would claim if he went against my plan. He didn't do so, and I'm town.
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On December 27 2012 18:06 JieXian wrote:
And hapa you sure did call in the blazing cops really quick on my little chat =(
Why the fuck do I care if you're speaking french?
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On December 28 2012 03:04 JieXian wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2012 02:45 Hapahauli wrote:On December 27 2012 18:05 JieXian wrote:On December 27 2012 16:53 Hapahauli wrote:
Oh, and regarding the possibility of "rogue townies" voting for Ghost, that's implausible. Unless you voted for ghost (and it doesn't sound like you did), every other player here agreed to my plan. Unless anyone would like to claim otherwise, there were no rogue players, and I'm confirmed town. Lol you do know that it's not in kush's advantage to publicly claim it because it'll damage the credibility of djo's read and his safety, since kush had a scum read on DJo. Furthermore kush won't have the power to convince Djo to not go along with the plan, because djo was expecting to be a confirmed townie , and ghost doesn't seem to be around at all. There are hints of his suspicion about you: On December 24 2012 11:36 kushm4sta wrote:
This witchcraft manipulation thing: Can you summarize your proposal so I can just read it and understand wtf you are saying? Because right now it doesn't make sense to me at all.
Cheesecake/djo does not feel right. Cheesecake's hard defense of djo definitely has scum motivation, but it's not a scum-like thing to do.
This shit with you jking me and preventing a NK. It rubs me the wrong way.
-If I were scum hands down I would kill ghost. Confirmed town at this stage of the game is huge.
-You are wrong about ghost flipping green confirms you green. Hypothetically if you are red and ghost is green, what else would you do? You wouldn't call him red if he's green.
What the hell are you talking about? Kush would claim if he went against my plan. He didn't do so, and I'm town. you're saying if kush claims you're not town?
If kush claims that he didn't follow my plan, than I'm not confirmed town.
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So how do you explain the fact that ghost won the elections?
It doesn't matter who voted for ghost. What matters is that if Djo actually voted for Mr.CC, Mr.CC would have won. Mr.CC did not win.
Mr. CC can't be lying about his check, because ghost claimed he won (and you think ghost is confirmed town). Unless you think ghost is lying as town, then Djo is scum.
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EPT
