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On November 23 2012 04:06 Hapahauli wrote: Hopefully his vote should give you some reservations about the current voting Acro... Scum has to place their vote somewhere...
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On November 23 2012 04:02 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2012 03:56 Acrofales wrote:On November 23 2012 03:51 Hapahauli wrote:On November 23 2012 03:46 Keirathi wrote: Hapa, I already explained why a candidate keeping his party hidden was a good idea. Yeah I saw that Kei, and I think it's really really stupid. Being scared of a possible D1 mafia manipulation isn't a good reason to sheep blindly on a player. It's like wanting to no-lynch on D1 in a normal game because there's a supposed "low chance of hitting scum." You lynch D1 anyway because of the amount of information we gain from the votecounts. Syllo is proposing an "optimal" strategy that completely neuters the amount of information we'll gain from the voting. This is fucking retarded. We still know the party, we just don't know his reason for picking them. If you mean that we are voting for 1 person, rather than 4, it has its advantages and disadvantages. Less easily manipulated by scum (assuming the chooser isn't actually scum himself), but gives less of a basis to vote on. Do you think Syllo is not town? I have no idea and that's the problem. Syllo hasn't done anything. He hasn't provided reads, and his only major contribution has been his "trust me I'll do everything" campaign. The only person who I've seen give something resembling a "read" on Syllo is Sandrob, who discussed in vague terms how he thought Syllo was town based on skype convos or something. That's an absurd reason to trust someone at this point in the game. Honestly, I'd insta-lynch someone for doing what Syllo's doing in any other game, but the circumstances in this set-up are quite unique and make me lean more null to him.
I don't think you're doing his filter justice with this post. He has given a rather important scumread. Whether it's right or not I am having a hard time determining, but the fact that Sandro isn't in here telling Syllo he's bad/stupid/scum for not recognizing him as town is almost MORE telling than the read in itself. I haven't seen Sandro allow people to call him scum as town without a fight.
Now Sandro would not be my first choice for a lynch, and I would generally be opposed to a D1 lynch based on this little information, but I am not getting the town vibes that Sandro usually throws off in spades, which, combined with Syllo's read is quite telling. I am not the only one in the thread feeling that way.
Granted, Syllo could be scum and very manipulative, managing to get us all to switch off Sandro, but that would be a completely new meta for him. The only scumgame I played with him, he disappeared from the thread and called everybody stupid. Town was onto him pretty early. He has not played like that at all this game.
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On November 23 2012 04:31 phagga wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2012 04:15 syllogism wrote: The only way me providing information regarding my picks gives you more information is if mafia decides to fight harder against my election due to my team being all town. I don't find it particularly likely that mafia would have behaved any differently today, unless perhaps if I had revealed my team much earlier. Revealing the team right now or even a few hours ago would have achieved nothing as I've been pretty much inevitable for longer than that. The reasons against disclosing the team, however, still stand.
You don't need more information about me than can be found by reading my posts. I'm town and whether town reached the correct conclusion based on blind faith or deduction isn't relevant. The problem is that we cannot hold you accountable. You might very well take a scum on your team and fail the mission on purpose. I guess it boils down to that town is giving up a lot of control over the first event if they don't know who you want to take with you. You are claiming all power over the first team. Do you believe he's town? If you do, why do you think he would take scum along on purpose?
All that really matters here is whether syllo is town or scum (or 3rd party).
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On November 23 2012 04:25 Hopeless1der wrote: MAFIA MIGHT BE ABLE TO KILL/ALTER THE SUCCESS IF THEY KNOW THE PARTY MEMBERS
HERPA FUCKING DERP Night actions are resolved AFTER the mission. Mementos already stated that. Herpa fucking derp yourself.
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Oh, I realize that I was waiting to decide between Syllo and Kita, but have actually already convinced myself.
##vote Syllogism
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On November 23 2012 06:10 marvellosity wrote: I never said I was being obviously town.
Depends how you describe utility. Mine being "get my preferred candidate elected". There aren't that many who can claim to have succeeded in that. What the hell is this?
Seems to me that the majority got their preferred candidate elected, or they wouldn't have voted for him. Do I like everything Syllo is doing? No. But I like him more than the other candidates, particularly Hapa, who is yet another from the gang of people who seem to be doing a great job of calling each other town for no reason I can see (Hapa, GK, Clarity, Keirathi, iamperfection).
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On November 23 2012 06:12 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2012 06:06 marvellosity wrote: What apologetic bullshit? What are you talking about?
It's certainly possible sandroba could be mafia, but I doubt syllogism is. But why does one of them 'have to be'?
Also I take a somewhat perverse pleasure that people like you and Kei don't know how to read me accurately still. Although it'd be easier if you simply found me town, of course. the "oh maybe I'm reading you wrong because you are trying to post differently" you don't have confidence in your read there which is something I expect from you. one of them has to be mafia because if neither of them was the mafia play d1 was useless and without goal. I've said this before but assuming that mafia wanted to be in the party one of Syllo/Sand is 100% mafia. The only way this is not true is if mafia did not want to be in d1 party. Sorry bro, I read you as scum right now; we'll see if I'm still bad or if maybe I can read you now. Mafia have been ditched in elections before today. If both Sandro and Syllo are town, then mafia never stood a chance in this election in any case. Biding their time and waiting till after they can kill off some of the more influential town players seems like a decent move in that case. Or maybe they have some fiendish ability they can use to sabotage a mission regardless of whether there's a scum in it. It'd be super powerful, but god knows what's in this game.
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On November 23 2012 06:13 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2012 06:10 marvellosity wrote: I never said I was being obviously town.
Depends how you describe utility. Mine being "get my preferred candidate elected". There aren't that many who can claim to have succeeded in that. You haven't really done anything to push people towards voting syllo though. You just dropped a vote on him early, and then argued with people about other less important things. Yea, you argued pretty heavily against kita, but he never really had much support. I feel like if you were really trying to "get your preferred candidate" elected, you would have been talking to people voting for sandro and asking them why and trying to convince them that syllo was a better choice. Why do you think that? Why do you feel it was necessary? Syllo was managing that quite well by himself. I agree that Marv had little part to play in the wagon on Syllo, but accusing him of NOT doing things that were patently unnecessary is just weird.
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On November 23 2012 06:22 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2012 06:18 Acrofales wrote: But I like him more than the other candidates, particularly Hapa, who is yet another from the gang of people who seem to be doing a great job of calling each other town for no reason I can see (Hapa, GK, Clarity, Keirathi, iamperfection). Ermm what? I haven't given a town read to a single person in that list :o Oh, maybe I got my buddying network confused. Will have to go over filters again. Maybe I got mutual buddying from one-way town reads.
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On November 23 2012 06:23 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2012 06:21 Acrofales wrote:On November 23 2012 06:12 Promethelax wrote:On November 23 2012 06:06 marvellosity wrote: What apologetic bullshit? What are you talking about?
It's certainly possible sandroba could be mafia, but I doubt syllogism is. But why does one of them 'have to be'?
Also I take a somewhat perverse pleasure that people like you and Kei don't know how to read me accurately still. Although it'd be easier if you simply found me town, of course. the "oh maybe I'm reading you wrong because you are trying to post differently" you don't have confidence in your read there which is something I expect from you. one of them has to be mafia because if neither of them was the mafia play d1 was useless and without goal. I've said this before but assuming that mafia wanted to be in the party one of Syllo/Sand is 100% mafia. The only way this is not true is if mafia did not want to be in d1 party. Sorry bro, I read you as scum right now; we'll see if I'm still bad or if maybe I can read you now. Mafia have been ditched in elections before today. If both Sandro and Syllo are town, then mafia never stood a chance in this election in any case. Biding their time and waiting till after they can kill off some of the more influential town players seems like a decent move in that case. Or maybe they have some fiendish ability they can use to sabotage a mission regardless of whether there's a scum in it. It'd be super powerful, but god knows what's in this game. I believe a mafia player would have created a campaign. They could not have known that Sand and Syllo would own the fuck out of this election. Unless they did not want to be in the party which, as you state there could be reasons for. However it is easier for me, and makes more sense according to Occam, that scum wanted to be in the party. Anyways, its mah birthday and I'm going out to dinner with my folks and my young lady. I'll be back eventually. I hope the quest goes well, gl guys.
Happy birthday and have fun!
But how are you so sure no scum ran today (or if they did have to be in Sandro/Syllo pair)? Kita, GK, Hapa and Toad all took a stab at it. Any of them could be scum. Why you fixing on the syllo/sandro situation? Because they are the only two who gained momentum? Plenty of reasons why scum is afraid to start a wagon (meaning that if nobody else does, it fails). Particularly because if the party fails they suddenly have their whole scumteam on a scummy wagon. Same as any mislynch really. Scum tends not to be the first to vote.
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On November 23 2012 06:17 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2012 06:16 marvellosity wrote:On November 23 2012 06:12 Clarity_nl wrote: Marv how do you feel about hapa possibly getting elected? How do you feel about syllo not wanting to share party members despite there being no downside since we know the mission happens before night actions. I prefer syllo as I think he's town and I'm null on hapa. I'm not bothered by how syllogism tells us about his party, I'm fairly confident I can read into his choices either way. You don't think that if syllo is scum it would be easier for him to explain his choices after he sees how the mission turned out? Obviously he'll say he had a townread on all three, but he might explain WHY differently. If you think Syllo is scum, why are you voting for him? Also, this would be a fucking ballzy move from a scum Syllo to pull. Between that and calling Sandro scum on D1? Fuck me.
And yes, I have a town read on Syllo. While I don't much like the secrecy, I understand his reasons and feel he has enough experience to pull town through on this first day. If he doesn't, well, then we will definitely discuss that tomorrow.
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On November 23 2012 06:15 Clarity_nl wrote: Prome, if marv is scum, and one of the syllo/sand is scum, does that mean syllo is scum? Because the way you're saying it, why would marv be backing syllo if sand is scum? Because the shitstorm is flying I want to point out this insightful comment by Clarity. I want this to be noticed by Prom when he gets back.
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On November 23 2012 06:36 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2012 06:33 Acrofales wrote:On November 23 2012 06:17 Clarity_nl wrote:On November 23 2012 06:16 marvellosity wrote:On November 23 2012 06:12 Clarity_nl wrote: Marv how do you feel about hapa possibly getting elected? How do you feel about syllo not wanting to share party members despite there being no downside since we know the mission happens before night actions. I prefer syllo as I think he's town and I'm null on hapa. I'm not bothered by how syllogism tells us about his party, I'm fairly confident I can read into his choices either way. You don't think that if syllo is scum it would be easier for him to explain his choices after he sees how the mission turned out? Obviously he'll say he had a townread on all three, but he might explain WHY differently. If you think Syllo is scum, why are you voting for him? Also, this would be a fucking ballzy move from a scum Syllo to pull. Between that and calling Sandro scum on D1? Fuck me. And yes, I have a town read on Syllo. While I don't much like the secrecy, I understand his reasons and feel he has enough experience to pull town through on this first day. If he doesn't, well, then we will definitely discuss that tomorrow. It's quite interesting that sandroba hasn't really fought against the accusation really either. Yeah. I did mention that a couple of pages back.
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On November 23 2012 06:34 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2012 06:33 Acrofales wrote:On November 23 2012 06:17 Clarity_nl wrote:On November 23 2012 06:16 marvellosity wrote:On November 23 2012 06:12 Clarity_nl wrote: Marv how do you feel about hapa possibly getting elected? How do you feel about syllo not wanting to share party members despite there being no downside since we know the mission happens before night actions. I prefer syllo as I think he's town and I'm null on hapa. I'm not bothered by how syllogism tells us about his party, I'm fairly confident I can read into his choices either way. You don't think that if syllo is scum it would be easier for him to explain his choices after he sees how the mission turned out? Obviously he'll say he had a townread on all three, but he might explain WHY differently. If you think Syllo is scum, why are you voting for him? Also, this would be a fucking ballzy move from a scum Syllo to pull. Between that and calling Sandro scum on D1? Fuck me. And yes, I have a town read on Syllo. While I don't much like the secrecy, I understand his reasons and feel he has enough experience to pull town through on this first day. If he doesn't, well, then we will definitely discuss that tomorrow. Wait, I think syllo is scum now? You need to read the thread more. Okay, maybe your hypothetical confused me. I don't see the reasoning in your question if you believe Syllo is town... but now that I think about it I don't think I see the reasoning in your question either way. Never mind about it.
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Anyway, now that I'm fairly caught up, I have to head out. Happy with my vote. See you in a couple of hours.
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On November 23 2012 06:44 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2012 06:42 Acrofales wrote:On November 23 2012 06:34 Clarity_nl wrote:On November 23 2012 06:33 Acrofales wrote:On November 23 2012 06:17 Clarity_nl wrote:On November 23 2012 06:16 marvellosity wrote:On November 23 2012 06:12 Clarity_nl wrote: Marv how do you feel about hapa possibly getting elected? How do you feel about syllo not wanting to share party members despite there being no downside since we know the mission happens before night actions. I prefer syllo as I think he's town and I'm null on hapa. I'm not bothered by how syllogism tells us about his party, I'm fairly confident I can read into his choices either way. You don't think that if syllo is scum it would be easier for him to explain his choices after he sees how the mission turned out? Obviously he'll say he had a townread on all three, but he might explain WHY differently. If you think Syllo is scum, why are you voting for him? Also, this would be a fucking ballzy move from a scum Syllo to pull. Between that and calling Sandro scum on D1? Fuck me. And yes, I have a town read on Syllo. While I don't much like the secrecy, I understand his reasons and feel he has enough experience to pull town through on this first day. If he doesn't, well, then we will definitely discuss that tomorrow. Wait, I think syllo is scum now? You need to read the thread more. Okay, maybe your hypothetical confused me. I don't see the reasoning in your question if you believe Syllo is town... but now that I think about it I don't think I see the reasoning in your question either way. Never mind about it. I think both syllo and hapa are town. But hapa says he'll take me on the team and syllo is saying he won't reveal his team. I am seriously considering switching to hapa but I need him to answer my question about GK. How do you not see the reasoning? I was asking marv about syllo's idea, not syllo. The problem with this reasoning is that if syllo is scum, he already KNOWS how this mission is going to turn out: it will be a failure. The WHY he picked the players is not going to change. Plus, if this mission fails, as Marv said, the first person I suspect for scum is Syllo himself.
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On November 23 2012 06:50 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2012 06:48 Acrofales wrote:On November 23 2012 06:44 Clarity_nl wrote:On November 23 2012 06:42 Acrofales wrote:On November 23 2012 06:34 Clarity_nl wrote:On November 23 2012 06:33 Acrofales wrote:On November 23 2012 06:17 Clarity_nl wrote:On November 23 2012 06:16 marvellosity wrote:On November 23 2012 06:12 Clarity_nl wrote: Marv how do you feel about hapa possibly getting elected? How do you feel about syllo not wanting to share party members despite there being no downside since we know the mission happens before night actions. I prefer syllo as I think he's town and I'm null on hapa. I'm not bothered by how syllogism tells us about his party, I'm fairly confident I can read into his choices either way. You don't think that if syllo is scum it would be easier for him to explain his choices after he sees how the mission turned out? Obviously he'll say he had a townread on all three, but he might explain WHY differently. If you think Syllo is scum, why are you voting for him? Also, this would be a fucking ballzy move from a scum Syllo to pull. Between that and calling Sandro scum on D1? Fuck me. And yes, I have a town read on Syllo. While I don't much like the secrecy, I understand his reasons and feel he has enough experience to pull town through on this first day. If he doesn't, well, then we will definitely discuss that tomorrow. Explain your town read on Hapa. Now I am really really leavingWait, I think syllo is scum now? You need to read the thread more. Okay, maybe your hypothetical confused me. I don't see the reasoning in your question if you believe Syllo is town... but now that I think about it I don't think I see the reasoning in your question either way. Never mind about it. I think both syllo and hapa are town. But hapa says he'll take me on the team and syllo is saying he won't reveal his team. I am seriously considering switching to hapa but I need him to answer my question about GK. How do you not see the reasoning? I was asking marv about syllo's idea, not syllo. The problem with this reasoning is that if syllo is scum, he already KNOWS how this mission is going to turn out: it will be a failure. The WHY he picked the players is not going to change. Plus, if this mission fails, as Marv said, the first person I suspect for scum is Syllo himself. I understand the argument of why witholding the names isn't bad, I fail to see the reasoning of why it's good. Again though, hapa is willing to take me, and I'm 100% town to myself, obviously.
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WTF happened?
Explain your town read on Hapa.
Now I am really really leaving
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K, I scrolled straight to the daypost. Nice job. Now reading the rest. Comments will be forthcoming. Also, I took some damage. Not sure I should claim how much yet, might tell later.
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On November 23 2012 07:15 Z-BosoN wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2012 07:05 Keirathi wrote:On November 23 2012 06:55 Z-BosoN wrote: Strong town read on marv? Really? If marv hadn't told be beforehand he wasn't gonna take this game seriously, I would have gone with scum read on marv. He spends a ton of time arguing with cave fellow for no reason at all, the guy is and has been a lost cause since he began posting. He's not nearly as active and as involved as his other games. He's not willing to run for party. I've reread his filter and there is nooooo way you can get a town read on marv that fast, with that kind of bad reasoning. Someone else had a town fast, with zero reasoning. Especially SNB, who's played with him a ton of times.
SnB's filter though seems pretty much like his town filter from last game, in terms of low activity and post coutn, but I haven't played with him much. Marv, do you have any meta read on him?
S&B quoted this with a silly response, but it really doesn't make a lot of sense. You spent a lot of words to say you don't have a town read on marv, then in the same breath ask marv for his meta read of S&B. If marv is, in fact, not town while S&B is, don't you think he would theoretically try to strengthen your scum read on S&B via answering your question? On this game I can tell SnB's filter looks more like the last game we played with and he was town (which I got right, thanks) than in his scum games, and marv wouldn't have been crazy enough to give SnB a scum read here, from either faction. Not sure I understand your issue, do you not interact with people you are suspicious of? What do you think of snb? Do you agree that adam looks like new scum trying to blend in? In case this hadn't been mentioned yet. The meta I know about adam is that he lurks regardless of alignment. He is also definitely not new. He's been around for longer than I have.
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