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Djodref
France3332 Posts
I admit I didn't explain it well but I don't think its a good reason to vote for someone... On a side note, I think that our setup is MVCCDTT. This is what makes the most sense right now and S&B should know it as well. I'm totally dropping BH now. But if there is another blue, he has to claim noaw imo. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 19 2012 12:28 iamperfection wrote: let me just make sure my thinking is right 0T means no vannila townies right? lol no, this is just wrong. CCCCCMM you would have two cops and two masons and 3 Maf and the rest would be VTs. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
I wanted S&B to say this to me. I don't understand how S&B can have his vote on BH right now given the info we have. MVCCDTT makes more sense, in term of probability and in term of play. Your logic is fallacious right now S&B. Explain me how you can conclude that voting BH is still a good move now and I might unvote you. ##Vote S&B | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
Yeah no SK in this case. We just have to find the last scum and we know for sure that he is not Hope and not BH. We still have 3 lynch to find him. It's too bad that debears couldn't confirm anyone else at the exception of the confirmed vig because it would almost have been GG right now then. If there is still one blue, I want him to claim now or I'm going to auto-vote him after. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 19 2012 12:45 iamperfection wrote: look at me setup speculate like a boss Was that sarcasm ? My plan was quite good but I didn't take into account the Cop (I thought the cop was you when Z-Bo referred to the Cop for the first time, I thought that you had checked thrawn or BH N1) would not bring us confirmed townies with him. I'm quite impressed by this snipe from the mafia player and I didn't see it coming. But things should be easier now. Iamp, DP, Clarity, Kickstart, S&B The last scum is hiding among these players if I'm right about the setup. We have 3 shots to find him. Easy enough imo  | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
Yeah, jokes and internet ^^ I was not offended anyway So, let me be clear this time On November 18 2012 13:09 Djodref wrote: Yeah but it could help us to be sure about BH claim and to know if there is a SK or not and get possible checks from N1 and N2. Don't you think it would be great to help us solve the game ? Z-Bo thought he found the cop, I think I also found him now and the probabilities indicate that a Cop is more likely than any other roles. I love math and I would love to solve a game by pure logic !! I think it is really worth it ! I'm getting excited now At this point, I thought that you (iamp) were the Cop Z-Bo was talking about. I thought that you investigated thrawn or BH N1 because you didn't want to lynch thrawn (after the replacement) and you were categorically opposed to lynch BH. On November 18 2012 13:49 Djodref wrote: Well, a mass claim would answer these questions On top of that, we are likely to have a cop so more confirmed town players in the process. The downfall is that we are going to out some blue payers but I don't think it really matters at this point. We are likely to be in a 7vs1 situation tomorrow so that mean that a scum would need 3 mislynches to win the game. It is not going to happen at all if we have the blues. It could be a problem if we have a SK but this is 3 times less likely than a no SK situation and we could start to hunt him if we know for sure that he exists. This game is all about information. As town, we know already for sure that
I'm pretty sure that a mass claim is going to give us enough data to help us win this battle of information And I think it's easier and faster than to look in details at more than 100 pages long game, and also a more beautiful way to solve this game (but this is personal preference ^^) I need the VTs to claim as well by the way. This post also shows that I suspect that there is a Cop. That's why I was quite insistent to convince you (iamp) to participate to the mass claim plan. So I followed your recommendation to scum hunt in a more traditional way. At this time, I had some suspicions regarding debears because of the Z-Bo lynch. On November 18 2012 18:40 Djodref wrote: @ debears Shit, I have just missed you. Anyway, it was a long time ago but I still want have some details about what happened in your head during the exchange between S&B and BH at D2. Especially I want to know why you posted this. At this point, I didn't see the crumb and I was preparing a case against debears. I found quite interesting that he gave up his pursuit of Hopeless without considering the possibility for him to be SK too much. That's at this point that I found the crumb. I was not sure of it at all because I was still suspicious of him at this point and I was still thinking that iamp could be the Cop. Also I thought that Z-Bo could have been totally wrong in his Cop read (I know at least that he was wrong about me, and now most likely wrong about BH as well). So I have questions to debears regarding Hopeless... On November 18 2012 18:50 Djodref wrote: @ debears 1)That's actually a good point. I don't think that hopeless could be SK even with another kill because he killed Crossfire and that would have been against a SK interest. But I've just realized that there was no way for a SK Hopeless to know for sure that Cross was scum when he decided to kill. By the way, would you yourself doubt Hopeless claim if we have 2 kills again tonight ? I remember that Hopeless was on your radar during D1. 2)That's also a good point. But it depends on the strategy you would choose as a SK. I don't know about it... 3)I disagree with this one because a possible SK would not know who the last scum is better than us. He would have no other thing to do than to scumhunt hard while not killing anyone and hope to survive until lylo. You don't have any guilty conscience if you didn't kill anyone, right  ?I was still unsure of who the Cop was or if we really had one but debears was the closest to be one imo (especially the MARIO PARTY posts) so I decided to post this before the night action resolution to "protect" him. On November 19 2012 09:39 Djodref wrote: Guys ! I'm just waking up and I'm already late for work. I'm not going to be able to post anything during the last hour tonight. So disappointed... Regarding debears, I found some things damning in his filter. He is definitively on my scum list right now.
I'll explain everything later but I have no time right now | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 19 2012 13:06 Blazinghand wrote: actually you know what I really can't criticize at this point, the setup analysis makes me confirmed town but really I could have figured that out when I said "hey guys there are 3 blues" like a million days ago. But yeah S&B lynch today imo @ BH Well, it was easier for you to figure it out than for us. Also you can totally have more than 3 blues with Keir setup generator. But I must admit that I was too stubborn when tunneling only you. I have to reconsider all my reads now. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 19 2012 20:16 Kickstart wrote: Yes it did, BH and hopeless are in the clear (although hopeless was cleared n1) who were people I was originally extremely suspicious of. Id say djos activity and sincerity about bh and wanting the mass claim, but his willingness to drop it and admit bh is as good as confirmed now puts him in a bit of better light. But I still feel the same about SnB, nothing has changed, the extra time has just given more of the same (he is completely inactive when there is no pressure on him, sure he posted a bit when he was gonna be lynched but that hardly tells us anything). Now once snb is gone things get a bit iffier for me, so I will have to read up on some people. @ Kickstart "Now once snb is gone things get a bit iffier for me, so I will have to read up on some people" What do you mean by this ? Don't you think that the game is going to be over when S&B dies ? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 19 2012 15:10 DarthPunk wrote: lynch Djo clarity and S&B and I doubt we could lose this. THis game is a pain in the arse to keep up with. Far too many posts most of them are useless and are just repeating what has already been said. I am going to look through the filters of those three players and see if I can come up with anything. @ DarthPunk And what reasons do you have to lynch me exactly ? It might be worth it for all of us that you look at everybody again. I'm expecting this kind of things from a guy who is on top of everybody town list. I would expect the same kind of things from the confirmed blues by the way. Your game in Acme is finished now (congrats by the way) and you should have enough time to spare with us now. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 19 2012 21:04 Kickstart wrote: I would hope so. But weren't talking about what's going to happen when S&B dies ? Do you just hope or do you have some real conviction that S&B is going to flip scum ? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
I'm sorry I'm French and sometimes it's hard for me to understand some sentences and it's also hard for me to get properly understood ^^ "Now once snb is gone things get a bit iffier for me, so I will have to read up on some people." Could you rephrase it ? I'm not sure of what you meant... | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 19 2012 22:46 strongandbig wrote: The reason that I'm still voting BH is that I'm pissed off at him for insulting me and therefore I want him to die. If we have no more blue claims then he's pretty much confirmed by the setup possibilities - the blues we already know about mean the setup must at least include MCCV. That's only three letters, and a TTT setup wouldn't include a godfather, so there has to be at least one more letter. So either there is another blue, or we have TTMCCDV and BH is confirmed. Unfortunately. @ S&B Well, these are good reasons for putting your vote on someone but that's not going to happen and we have to play to win. There is no other blue in my opinion. Another Jailkeeper would have counterclaimed BH in ages. A Town RoleBlocker would have blocked someone. Another Vigilante would mean MCCVVVV which is unlikely as hell Another Cop would mean MCCCCVT which is also quite unlikely, without adding the fact that we have no sign of an SK and that another Cop with 2 possible checks would solve us the game right away. There is no other, the time for speculation is over. The setup is MVCCDTT, there is no SK and Hopeless is 100% confirmed Luigi the Vig and Blazinghand is 100% confirmed JailKeeper. And the fact that they are 100% confirmed is great and that's what all this setup speculation gave us. So, yes, it is useful ! You should get your vote off BH's back now... | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 19 2012 23:58 Kickstart wrote: Yes, hence the if you think I'm the scummiest vote for me. @ Kickstart The problem was your formulation. You really sounded like you know the outcome of the lynch and that you'll start to read the filters only after this lynch. If you doubt that S&B is going to flip scum, then you should start reading the filters right now, that's my point. You are in no way looking worse than S&B right now but you should not get lazy and start to pursue other reads. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 20 2012 01:14 Blazinghand wrote: In any case, I'll understand if you disagree with my analysis here, and yes I didn't like Kickstart much at the end of N2 but that was for a very serious review of his filter. I am now utterly against lynching him today. ส้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้ ส้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้ I would just like to add that I don't see a newbie like Kickstart pull off a blue snipe on debears like this on his own. And I understand why he is getting lazy honestly. @ S&B You are not contributing, you are not present in the thread. It looks like you are giving up as any caught scum would do at this point. Why are you not conceding ? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 20 2012 02:34 Hopeless1der wrote: Known/Assumed Flips
Remaining Players are assumed to be Mushroom Citizens or the final scum, Kamek the Mafia Roleblocker
Strongandbig, if you can't tell us who the scum of that list is, can you provide town reads instead on as many players as you can? Actually, everyone should be doing that, with the understanding that reads change. BH and I are next in line, probably in that order due to being confirmed town and BH being a known strong town player. In the event that SnB is not scum, we have one mislynch Day 4 until a MYLO Day 5 (3v1). Which players do we want alive if it gets to that point? <snip> @ Hopeless At the moment, my strongest town reads are Iamp and Kickstart. Iamp looks the most concerned about this game with Clarity. He has presented good contributions and promotes a good town atmosphere for the discussion. He has shown interest and provided his insights on almost everything what was going on in the thread. Moreover, I don't feel that his posts are forced. He just looks genuinely town. He is the guy I would never want to lynch. Kickstart, even he doesn't participate enough at my taste, really gives me a first time town player feeling. I'm just coming out of my newbie games and they are full of games like him. If he was scum, I think he would have produced some Crossfire-like looking posts on day1 and that he would have already broke into pieces at this point. He needs to get free of the "I'm going to get suspicious if I post burden". I think that he could show clearly that he is town if he could post more freely. I'll give him "carte blanche" for his postings until we get at MYLO, if we have to come to this, which I doubt. I might be stupid to insist on this point, but I'm going to eat my hat if Kickstart has sniped debears. The last scum has to be an experienced player in my opinion. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 20 2012 03:07 Clarity_nl wrote: I'm just glad people have been giving some attention to kickstart, and looking at people's reads and impressions of kickstart my nerves about him have been silenced. I might reconsider again, obviously, but at the moment he does seem genuinely town, if a bit lacking in the caring department. I'll be taking quite a bit to go over stuff, because if snb flips town somehow I'm not quite sure at the moment who is most likely scum. Despite being the hammer vote I might have to reconsider darth, but more likely is Djo.... Back with more, later. @ Clarity Seriously, I don't understand what you have against me... How can I be on everyone lynch list when I have yet to see a real case against me ? I'm also reconsidering Darthpunk at the moment by the way. The strong town tells I have for him are the following
Please tell me if I missed some points ! For these points, he has been in a very high position in every player town list but he has failed to take advantage of this position in my view. Also I still have problem with his Z-Boson lynch... Anybody would like to discuss with me why Darthpunk should stay in my non-lynchable ever list ? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
I would just like to add that it's past 3am here in South Korea and that I should be at work tomorrow morning so I might go to bed soon. GAME IS NOT OVER YET ! IT'S NOT THE TIME TO GET LAZY ! On a personal note, I've like S&B defense during D2, maybe because I'm more emotional than rational, so I'm not totally sure of S&B being the last scum yet even if he is the right person to lynch at the moment. I'm very curious to see what are going to be his next contributions. I'll accept people getting lazy if they can provide me with a case that totally proves that S&B is the last scum. DOES ANYONE HAVE A BETTER LYNCH THAN S&B TO PROPOSE FOR TODAY ?? | ||
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