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On November 18 2012 18:18 debears wrote:Show nested quote +On November 18 2012 17:59 Djodref wrote:
@ debears
I disagree, it could be a good strategy for a possible SK to retain his night kills until we manage to find the last scum.
What does make you think that a possible SK would kill tonight ? 1) Assuming that the SK isn't hopeless, he could put doubt on hopeless' claim. 2) it's what, 8/7 town to 1 scum/sk or 1 scum and sk 3) The longer the game goes on, the harder it is to conceal a guilty conscience/push your agenda as sk/mafia
@ debears
1)That's actually a good point. I don't think that hopeless could be SK even with another kill because he killed Crossfire and that would have been against a SK interest. But I've just realized that there was no way for a SK Hopeless to know for sure that Cross was scum when he decided to kill. By the way, would you yourself doubt Hopeless claim if we have 2 kills again tonight ? I remember that Hopeless was on your radar during D1.
2)That's also a good point. But it depends on the strategy you would choose as a SK. I don't know about it...
3)I disagree with this one because a possible SK would not know who the last scum is better than us. He would have no other thing to do than to scumhunt hard while not killing anyone and hope to survive until lylo. You don't have any guilty conscience if you didn't kill anyone, right  ?
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@ Clarity
Did you send some PM to Hapa for coaching when you were scum in our last newbie game ?
Keir was with you in the scum QT but he joined later on iirc.
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Is it possible to know how the single-shot roles were handled ?
I was assuming that the letters have been rolled and rolled again until you got something fitting the modified rules for this game, was I correct ?
@ S&B
On November 19 2012 01:04 strongandbig wrote:
<snip>
TTTTT, I don't think we can discard. We can no longer tell any difference between the three possible scenarios: BH is lying and is the SK, BH is lying and is the last scum, and BH is telling the truth and there is a scum RB'er. This means we could have TTTTTMV, BH is the serial killer, and there are no other blue roles.
<snip>
I appreciate to have someone to speculate this setup with. I agree that we should not totally discard TTTTT because one of BH or Hopeless could be fake claiming and be a SK but it doesn't make sense for any of them. Especially a blind fake JK claim from a SK during D1, it is clearly a suicidal move. What do you think ?
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On November 19 2012 00:55 debears wrote:Show nested quote +On November 18 2012 18:50 Djodref wrote:On November 18 2012 18:18 debears wrote:On November 18 2012 17:59 Djodref wrote:
@ debears
I disagree, it could be a good strategy for a possible SK to retain his night kills until we manage to find the last scum.
What does make you think that a possible SK would kill tonight ? 1) Assuming that the SK isn't hopeless, he could put doubt on hopeless' claim. 2) it's what, 8/7 town to 1 scum/sk or 1 scum and sk 3) The longer the game goes on, the harder it is to conceal a guilty conscience/push your agenda as sk/mafia @ debears1)That's actually a good point. I don't think that hopeless could be SK even with another kill because he killed Crossfire and that would have been against a SK interest. But I've just realized that there was no way for a SK Hopeless to know for sure that Cross was scum when he decided to kill. By the way, would you yourself doubt Hopeless claim if we have 2 kills again tonight ? I remember that Hopeless was on your radar during D1. 2)That's also a good point. But it depends on the strategy you would choose as a SK. I don't know about it... 3)I disagree with this one because a possible SK would not know who the last scum is better than us. He would have no other thing to do than to scumhunt hard while not killing anyone and hope to survive until lylo. You don't have any guilty conscience if you didn't kill anyone, right ? 1) I would strongly look at Hopeless if another kill showed up. However, in my thought process, it would be fucking retarded for a SK to claim vig n1. Think about it. He would paint a target on his back for the mafia by being a confirmed town 2 and 3) Djo, it's a proven fact that, the longer the game goes on, the worse it is for the anti-town alignments. It gets so much harder to hide
@ debears
1) I agree with you on this one. Would you say that your D1 history with Hopeless is over then ?
2) and 3) You got me convinced that the SK is going to kill tonight and maybe have double-stacked his kill on marv yesterday, if he exists of course.
On a side note, you said that you wanted to auto-lynch S&B tomorrow but I'm not sure if you mentioned other scum reads lately. What do you think about BH post on Clarity ?
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On November 19 2012 01:32 Clarity_nl wrote:
Wait Djo you think BH is JK now?
@ Clarity
No, I don't think that he is JK yet but I have some doubts since his last contributions. I'm a little less inclined that he is scum.
He was right about the blues, it has to be their decision. And I liked his contribution about your interactions with Hapa during D1.
Did I make a clumsy post again ?
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On November 19 2012 01:35 strongandbig wrote:
hopeless can't be fakeclaiming, because then someone would have had to be around to roleblock BH - only BH can be fakeclaiming.
And as for your other point, I think that it's not necessarily a suicidal move if you (a) think you can get away with it, or (b) don't really think you can / want to try to win normally as SK in the first place
Basically, I still think BH's claim makes as much sense from an SK as it does from an actual town jailkeeper.
@ S&B
Regarding the impossibility for Hopeless to fakeclaim in TTTTT, you have a good point, I didn't think about that.
Regarding BH being a SK with a jailkeeper claim, I cannot really believe it. You are supposed to play to win after all ^^ So I'm going to assume a third scum from now on.
Anyway, I hope that the blues are going to out themselves so we can know all this for sure.
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On November 19 2012 01:32 Clarity_nl wrote:
Wait Djo you think BH is JK now?
@ Clarity
Were you talking about this post ?
+ Show Spoiler +On November 19 2012 01:25 Djodref wrote:Is it possible to know how the single-shot roles were handled ?
I was assuming that the letters have been rolled and rolled again until you got something fitting the modified rules for this game, was I correct ?@ S&BShow nested quote +On November 19 2012 01:04 strongandbig wrote:
<snip>
TTTTT, I don't think we can discard. We can no longer tell any difference between the three possible scenarios: BH is lying and is the SK, BH is lying and is the last scum, and BH is telling the truth and there is a scum RB'er. This means we could have TTTTTMV, BH is the serial killer, and there are no other blue roles.
<snip> I appreciate to have someone to speculate this setup with. I agree that we should not totally discard TTTTT because one of BH or Hopeless could be fake claiming and be a SK but it doesn't make sense for any of them. Especially a blind fake JK claim from a SK during D1, it is clearly a suicidal move. What do you think ?
If yes, TTTTT is a setup where there is no more scum but only one lonely SK left. And in this case, it would necessarily would be BH because he would be fake claiming JK. I brought up this possibility once and the only one inclined to believe it is S&B. According to me, it is just a possibility but I cannot believe in it. I know that BH has a large penis but I cannot even imagine the ball size you need to pull off a play like this.
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@ S&B
Would you agree that if our setup is TTTTT and that BH is SK then he automatically loses this game ?
I mean, you have a "confirmed" JK going into MYLO or LYLO, getting role blocked every night with no evidence of any other blue role, then this "confirmed" JK has to go.
BH at LYLO + no other blue (dead or alive) = automatically lynch BH
If people remember this, then we can safely forget the TTTTT setup for the moment
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Actually your last post against debears is good. I'm quite interested in debears myself right now so I'm waiting for his answers but I'm getting bored in the meantime so I'm speculating about the setup because I found a good partner at setup speculating in the person of S&B 
It's getting late in Korea though and I have to work tomorrow. But this game is keeping me awake so I'll wait.
In the meantime
@ Clarity
You did ask me about Kickstart and I hope that my answer satisfied you. What is your read on him ?
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On November 19 2012 00:47 debears wrote:Show nested quote +On November 18 2012 18:40 Djodref wrote:@ debearsShit, I have just missed you. Anyway, it was a long time ago but I still want have some details about what happened in your head during the exchange between S&B and BH at D2. Especially I want to know why you posted this. On November 17 2012 14:08 Djodref wrote:On November 17 2012 09:36 debears wrote:
Can we double lynch BH and SnB???? @ debearsCan you explain me this post and your latest vote and unvote against BH in details ? For two vets, they have both ridiculously underperformed. They have been obnoxious. I was getting tired of it. And hell, chances are one of them is scum (more likely SnB imo)
On November 19 2012 01:54 debears wrote:Show nested quote +On November 19 2012 01:36 Djodref wrote:On November 19 2012 00:55 debears wrote:On November 18 2012 18:50 Djodref wrote:On November 18 2012 18:18 debears wrote:On November 18 2012 17:59 Djodref wrote:
@ debears
I disagree, it could be a good strategy for a possible SK to retain his night kills until we manage to find the last scum.
What does make you think that a possible SK would kill tonight ? 1) Assuming that the SK isn't hopeless, he could put doubt on hopeless' claim. 2) it's what, 8/7 town to 1 scum/sk or 1 scum and sk 3) The longer the game goes on, the harder it is to conceal a guilty conscience/push your agenda as sk/mafia @ debears1)That's actually a good point. I don't think that hopeless could be SK even with another kill because he killed Crossfire and that would have been against a SK interest. But I've just realized that there was no way for a SK Hopeless to know for sure that Cross was scum when he decided to kill. By the way, would you yourself doubt Hopeless claim if we have 2 kills again tonight ? I remember that Hopeless was on your radar during D1. 2)That's also a good point. But it depends on the strategy you would choose as a SK. I don't know about it... 3)I disagree with this one because a possible SK would not know who the last scum is better than us. He would have no other thing to do than to scumhunt hard while not killing anyone and hope to survive until lylo. You don't have any guilty conscience if you didn't kill anyone, right ? 1) I would strongly look at Hopeless if another kill showed up. However, in my thought process, it would be fucking retarded for a SK to claim vig n1. Think about it. He would paint a target on his back for the mafia by being a confirmed town 2 and 3) Djo, it's a proven fact that, the longer the game goes on, the worse it is for the anti-town alignments. It gets so much harder to hide @ debears1) I agree with you on this one. Would you say that your D1 history with Hopeless is over then ? 2) and 3) You got me convinced that the SK is going to kill tonight and maybe have double-stacked his kill on marv yesterday, if he exists of course. On a side note, you said that you wanted to auto-lynch S&B tomorrow but I'm not sure if you mentioned other scum reads lately. What do you think about BH post on Clarity ? As I said, I've found clarity's posting weird lately, especially with his certainty on what z-Bo was going to flip. There was a reason z-Bo was up for lynch, there's only 1 scum/sk most likely. How was clarity so sure he was town? Why didn't he hard defend him more if he thought z-Bo was town? That, and yes, Clarity's interactions with Hapa are weird. Djo I've been getting townie vibes from u lately, so I'm thinking it's down to SnB and Clarity right now, with SnB in the lead
@ debears
I'm a little sad that you switched from S&B and BH to S&B and Clarity. Could you tell me what changed your mind ?
Are you dropping BH for real or just for the moment ?
I've been thinking about BH lately and I think that we can get him setup-wise at the end if he is a bad guy. I mean, SK or scum, he would have to go at LYLO and his fake claim could be proved because the rightful blues would have been revealed at this point (dead or claimed blues). What do you think ?
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On November 19 2012 02:33 strongandbig wrote:
It depends on how Keirathi resolved one-shot roles.
If he just turned them into VTs, then BH would say that the setup is TTMVVDC or TTMVVDD, and that he's still "confirmed jailkeeper" but there were no other blues.
If Keirathi either (a) turned one-shot roles into full roles, or (b) re-rolled any setup that had one-shot roles in it, then yes I agree, a serial killer automatically loses at LYLO when there are no more blue roles.
@ S&B
Well then I hope that we could get our answer from Keir then. For me, the (b) solution was making a lot of sense so I automatically assumed it to be true. Thanks for your input.
I'll try to stop to speculate too much on the setup from now on even if I enjoy it very much. I'll come back to it if we get the answer from Keir or if the blues decide to claim tonight.
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I need to get some sleep noaw...
I hope to see some posts from DP, Hopeless and Kickstart when I wake up ^^
Game is not over yet guys !
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By the way, I think that the blues should wait for Keir input before going for the mass claim plan or not.
Its efficiency is going to depend on how the one-shot roles are handled. If they are removed, we are nit going to get valauble information imho.
Night all !
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Guys !
I'm just waking up and I'm already late for work. I'm not going to be able to post anything during the last hour tonight.
So disappointed...
Regarding debears, I found some things damning in his filter. He is definitively on my scum list right now.
- Kenpachi rule
- Exchanges with Hapa seems forced
- Soft-bus of Hapa which went wrong
- Spread suspicion on both S&B and BH
- Stupid lynch of Z-Bo
I'll explain everything later but I have no time right now
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I don't want to miss a mass claim if it happens but I'm sooo late, shiiiiiiiiit
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Aww shit !
GG debears...
I guessed he was cop, I had found his crumb in his filter when I was checking it at iamp demand. He thinks he had checked Hopeless...
So I've tried to look suspicious of him to avoid him being killed. Still I would have preferred him to claim.
That's not good for us
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On November 19 2012 11:36 strongandbig wrote:
yeah if there are no other claims then you and bh are confirmed
bh is still terrible though
Wait !
What about the only one T and zero T setups?
Are you sure ?
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On November 19 2012 11:52 iamperfection wrote:
no the point is he was being more suspicious of debars to help him survive but he said he didn't see the crump untill i told him to go look.
I saw the crumb but I kept acting like I was suspicious of debears...
Does that make more sense ?
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I'M on phone right now.
I found the crumb after you told me to go traditional scumhunt.
The crumb is right after the start of D2. "MB <3" doesnt make any sense except for Mario Brothers.
Mario found Luigi.
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Sorry I cannot find the right quote right now I'm on phone.
What do you think ? MB <3 is the crumb.
@Iamp
Regarding the zero T setups. Its highly unlikely first and second we would have already won the game imo.
There is no roleblock, no additional vig shot, no claim after my mass claim plan.
I was ciriois to see what S&B had to say about it and I would still like to have his input on single T setups.
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EPT
