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Djodref
France3332 Posts
Let's look at the two following players Blazinghands
Yet he is the last on your lynch list Z-BosoN
You want to lynch him today The probability for us to have a miller is roughly the same than the probability for us to have a JK. They both couldn't confirm their claims by any actions. Why can you not understand this ? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 17 2012 15:28 Blazinghand wrote: lol equating jk claim with miller claim what a guy Probability-wise, it's similar, and here it's the case because you failed to prove us that your claim is right, which I doubt. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
Then you have to explain me precisely where is the flaw in my logic. If Z-Bo is indeed scum, it was a great risk for him to claim miller because he had roughly a 40% chance to be counterclaimed right away. And explain me why would he claim miller as roleblocker ? Why not claiming jailkeeper in this case if he wanted to fakeclaim at the beginning of D1 ? Why claiming when there was no pressure ? You are exactly the same idiot as I am. But the difference is that Z-Bo has showed more town traits than BH if you discard the meta thing. And for you to seriously believe that we nailed all the scumteam during D1 and N1... you are worse than me Z-Bo had two confirmed mafia votes against him, if he was bussed and plant WIFOM, why would he try to survive after all ? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
Dandel Ion was mafia roleblocker in that game -> + Show Spoiler + On October 30 2012 05:32 Dandel Ion wrote: Okay, I'll make it easier on y'all I am Honda, some fat guy. AKA the roleblocker. Why am I claiming now? Should be obvious - I don't want to get mislynched, and that's what seems to be about to happen. Do you have the crumbz? Yes. + Show Spoiler + I actually forgot about the crumb at day 1 at first, and I only remembered the next morning that I should've crumbed it, which is why it's a bit later, and not in my first batch of posts. Rectifying this is quite literaly the first thing I do, then:link On October 25 2012 19:23 Dandel Ion wrote: Right on, I'M Back. [blablaba] Bolded. Not my brightest moment, but I was tired and couldn't come up with a better way to incorporate that. I also majorly stressed out about how easy that seems to spot, but it appears nobody did. Maybe the tricky "splitting R and B" is actually amazing. My night action was roleblocking Kush. He was my strongest scumread, and while it was unlikely even then, that scum would send Kush to kill, frankly, I just had no idea who else to block. I'm no JK, so I can't save people (I wouldn't have guessed Sylver anyways, so w/e) Context: It's night, I had posted my case on Kush. His response to it was saying "it's bad". That's it. After he posts his nonsense about how he won't be nightkilled now (something he does like to post as scum), I decide to roleblock him. Link On October 28 2012 00:03 Dandel Ion wrote: So you're saying, his meta is actually the same to you? After you tried to make it out as if there was some huge meta divergence? Right. I call Bullshit, Kushyboy. Pretty straightforward. To keep it in line with the first crumb, I capitalized the B again. ((I also almost never call people by "wrong" names ingame, except for situations like this, or if I'm really sure they are scum. Both applied here. But you can take that or leave it, it doesn't matter)) Nothing happened that made me want to change that, so I stuck with it. Why I was so fixated on Djo being the SK: Because, and this part is actually not the best argument, because it's not IMPOSSIBLE, just unlikely, but I thought JK+Cop+RB+Vig would be too much blue, so I practically eliminated the possibility of a Vig. and I got VERY leery of how Djo randomly jumped into the thread and started a NK speculation (in itself bad enough, since it's little more than fluff) AND started talking like it was a 100% certainity that Sylver was the scum KP AND he found a reason why Sylver was killed in, like, ~10 minutes after the flip (this was pointed out by somebody else, can't remember who). So where does this leave us? (from my perspective) Djo is still scum. Alsn made a case on me, so I feel the need to OMGUS him. He's also currently in the process of setting up Cheese as his next lynch, but I'm not sure where that puts him, since Cheese is null to me. Roco pretty much claimed scum by sheeping onto the current case, no reasons given. Then he vanished into thin air again. His actions stink like he was told what to do in a QT. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't even read the thread himself. No matter what, he's an ABSOLUTE liability, even if he should actually be town. Nackht is looking more townish now, although the reasons why he finds Cheese scummy still elude me. Frankly, I didn't really understand that post. The reasons for Alsn are even more obscure, cause he didn't give any, looks like. Cheese is still pretty null to me. I'll have to read nackht's post some more and try to make sense of it... debears is likely town, though it's strange how he defends me so hard just based on meta. Honestly though, at this point, I don't have a problem with it. He dug all that stuff up (A for effort) and actually thinks about the game, unlike many others in here. Rad has given me no reason to not read him town, still. I believe his Vig claim, no matter the implications on the setup. Plus, since he claimed the shot, it'd be suicide for him to shoot somebody else. If he's actually SK, then he's pretty damn good at this game. I am also seriously pissed that nobody actually even aknowledged my defense, and Djo just spammed 2+ pages full of WIFOM bullshit oneliners instead. I have, to this point, not seen an actual REASON why I'm supposed to be scum, and I didn't want to claim just because nobody reads the thread. Also, really cool how nobody is even in the thread anymore. Guess I shoulda posted this even earlier... | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
Sorry guys I'm just waking up right now... Hangover and stuff, I'm catching up | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 18 2012 08:37 debears wrote: Ok I'm going to go see the new bond. I'll poke in and out when I can I really need someone to give me the following setup odss: Vig, JK, Miller, GF, Goon, scum RB -> VJMTT** => one or two roles missing in your list, this setup is impossible Vig, JK, GF, Goon, scum RB -> VJTT*** => irrelevant now that Z-Bo has flipped and impossible Vig, JK, Cop, Miller, GF, Goon, scum RB -> VJCCMTT => the only possible setup that you have proposed so far Vig, JK, Cop, GF, Goon, scum RB -> VJCCTT** => irrelevant now that Z-Bo has flipped and impossible @ debears Here are your answers regarding the setup odds. Please check them in your quote. You need CC to get a cop and BB to get a town roleblocker. You are really more likely to get a cop than a roleblocker. The others roles (V for 1-shot Vig, J for Jailkeeper and M for Miller) have all the same probability to get rolled. We have more information now that we have a dead miller. Hopeless being close to be confirmed big, I think that a mass claim at the end of this night could help us to condemn or clear BH. This issue is important for me so I would like you to consider it seriously. But it's not my decision. In the case where BH claim is a fakeclaim The possible setups are
In the case where BH is JK The possible setups are
Considering this, I'm definitively up for a mass claim during the last hour of N2. It can be a great help to solve this game without shouting at each other for days and days. Please consider the following points.
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
Mass claim at the end of the night ! Who is up for it ? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
I would like to know what you think of the mass claim !!! | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
Z-Bo thought he found the cop, I think I also found him now and the probabilities indicate that a Cop is more likely than any other roles. I love math and I would love to solve a game by pure logic !! I think it is really worth it ! I'm getting excited now  | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
I'm going to claim during the last hour of N2 ! Who is with me on this ? I would like to remind you once again the benefits of a mass claim !
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
I would like you to read this post again + Show Spoiler + On November 18 2012 12:44 Djodref wrote: @ debears Here are your answers regarding the setup odds. Please check them in your quote. You need CC to get a cop and BB to get a town roleblocker. You are really more likely to get a cop than a roleblocker. The others roles (V for 1-shot Vig, J for Jailkeeper and M for Miller) have all the same probability to get rolled. We have more information now that we have a dead miller. Hopeless being close to be confirmed big, I think that a mass claim at the end of this night could help us to condemn or clear BH. This issue is important for me so I would like you to consider it seriously. But it's not my decision. In the case where BH claim is a fakeclaim The possible setups are
In the case where BH is JK The possible setups are
Considering this, I'm definitively up for a mass claim during the last hour of N2. It can be a great help to solve this game without shouting at each other for days and days. Please consider the following points.
When I'm speaking about a mass-claim, I want the VT to claim as well. There is not so many possibilities setup-wise when you have a Godfather-Goon-scum RB scumteam because this game is following the C9++ rules. So we know exactly how many blue roles to expect. If we have too many of them, then we have to lynch BH and it's going to be GG. If we have the right number of them, then I have to eat my hat and admit that BH claim is right. Am I clear enough ? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
For reference | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 18 2012 13:27 Kickstart wrote: I'm inclined to think a mass claim would get us nowhere. It really is up to each individual but I think we can make progress and move forward without needing mass claim. I just don't think we really need it as town at this point. Well, I have arguments that indicate that it would help us greatly to solve the game if not outright forcing the last scum to concede. But let me ask you these questions. Do you want to know if BH claim is fake or not ? Do you want to know if there is a SK or not in this game ? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On top of that, we are likely to have a cop so more confirmed town players in the process. The downfall is that we are going to out some blue payers but I don't think it really matters at this point. We are likely to be in a 7vs1 situation tomorrow so that mean that a scum would need 3 mislynches to win the game. It is not going to happen at all if we have the blues. It could be a problem if we have a SK but this is 3 times less likely than a no SK situation and we could start to hunt him if we know for sure that he exists. This game is all about information. As town, we know already for sure that
I'm pretty sure that a mass claim is going to give us enough data to help us win this battle of information And I think it's easier and faster than to look in details at more than 100 pages long game, and also a more beautiful way to solve this game (but this is personal preference ^^) I need the VTs to claim as well by the way. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 18 2012 13:35 Kickstart wrote: But some roles are just going to lye. How complicated would it be to figure out from there? Are you planning to lye ? Of course, we need all the town players to tell the truth, especially the blue roles. Now, we have only one or two bad guys left. Their choice is to lye about being VT or about being blue. If they lye about being blue (like I suspect BH to do already), we are just going to have too much blues for this setup. Let's consider the following cases. We end up with more blue roles than it is possible We lynch BH first and it is likely to be GG at this point. If not, which I doubt, we lynch the other guys that are most likely to be a lying about their roles. We 3 lynches to find the liar. Easy enough, I would say. We end up with blue roles which make sense setup-wise It means that the bad guy(s) are in the crowd claiming VT. But it also mean that the blues are confirmed. Especially if we get a confirmed cop, we can get more town players confirmed. The scum has to hide in the VT unconfirmed players. That reduces our scope of search greatly and helps us to solve the game for sure What do you think ? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
But more importantly, I'm quite sure that we are going to have too many blues if we follow this mass-claim plan so I hope that I could finally get you to lynch BH ^^ | ||
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) and it could help us to have confirmed townies
