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K, my findings, coz I want to go for a swim and the sun is going down.
I read through Drazak's filter and I cannot find anything much of interest. Maybe someone else has better luck? However, his flip is good for a number of other reasons:
Release cannot be scum
Kush cannot be scum
DP pulled off an excellent bus, or isn't scum.
So, that narrows the list down quite a bit. Namely, to thrawn and risk (Prom was cleared due to N1 and mkfuba's roleblock has not been counterclaimed, so that also seems to work out).
I spent quite a bit of time reading their filters and risk just looks about a 1000 times scummier than thrawn. Thrawn looks a bit like I felt in Bastard Mafia 2: he is having a hard time convincing himself about the scums and therefore he reverts to doubting everybody. It's not good, but it's not scummy.
He has made quite a few incredibly townie posts. So that leaves risk. See the multiple cases on risk already in the thread for explanation of why risk is scum.
Finding the SK
This is a lot harder.
Release doesn't feel like a teamplayer and yesterday's lack of NKs is definitely looking like he could be the SK.
DarthPunk is possible.
Prom cares too much, but outside chance. Once we're done with shooting Risk, Prom needs to be looked at.
mkfuba: cannot be due to no counterclaim.
thrawn: outside chance: VERY risky play to claim cop as an SK and the benefits are minimal.
kush: cares too much. In his own weird way he is really playing as a teamplayer. Plus, him pulling out the flavour theory speaks to him being an actual VT, even if the theory is completely wrong.
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On November 10 2012 06:37 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2012 03:44 Acrofales wrote:On November 10 2012 02:51 thrawn2112 wrote:
There are already 2 confirmed blues and 3 claimed blues. dp has even been hinting that he'll claim something later on. Are we really just thinking it's ok that we have 5-6 blue roles with a unclaimed vig/sk? I'm thinking that one of the people who claimed a roleblocking role might be scum roleblocker. And townies are fakeclaiming roleblocked. Yay for logic! ?? Notice I said "might be a scum roleblocker." The roleblocks would still be there, nobody would have to fake anything.
So there's 2 scum roleblockers?
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DP. You promised something.
Prom: I suspect you or I will die, want to give your reads?
Oh, and in case anybody is still wondering, I'm roleblocking risk for completely obvious reasons.
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I also got back from the pool in plenty of time to have posted my reads now, but it's not as if they were in any way spectacular. If I die, I really don't think town can lose lynching down this list:
risk.nuke
Release
DarthPunk
Thrawn
Kush
Prom
mkfuba
If risk for some crazy reason does not flip red, then Thrawn rockets up to the top.
Also, whatever you do:
Release cannot be scum unless scum has a 4man team OR Kush is SK and fakeclaimed roleblocked.
Kush cannot be scum unless there is a 4man scumteam OR Thrawn is the SK and fakeclaimed a greencheck.
Even if you don't follow my logic for it, it is bulletproof. I have a PhD in that shit.
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Also, if there is an SK then it is impossible to have 0 kills tonight (unless there's an unclaimed medic)
If there is 1 kill tonight, then three possibilities:
Scum shot SK
This scenario means that they did not shoot SK yesterday, so one of release, kush and prom is the SK.
Scum killer was RB'd
risk is scum.
Scum and SK doublestacked
Nothing useful to learn from this.
Note that unless there is an unexpected roleblock claim, I could not have roleblocked the SK, because I would be RB'd.
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Last post assumes people didn't derp it up terribly by not sending in night actions.
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It was also done in a rush, so chance of errors is present. Pretty sure it's right, though. Also F5.
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Nice. Score another townie point in my townometer  Unfortunately, SKs also score townie points, because it only measures mafia and town 
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He has been playing townie all game. He scumhunted. He has been playing as part of a team. He nailed home the hopeless case with great conviction.
Could he be SK? Yes. But there's more likely candidates.
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All I really have against him is the case against prplhz. Which at the time was good, but has gotten rather overshadowed by newer events.
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Thrawn, you're thinking wrong. Claiming roleblockeD truthfully does not make you town.
It makes fuba town (or scum with Prom, which is completely retarded)
It makes me town (or scum with Release, yeah... that happened)
It does not say much about Release or Prom except that they felt the need to claim roleblocked.
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On November 10 2012 08:24 DarthPunk wrote:
sorry. I slept in. catching up now.
\pull out pitchfork
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It's okay, though. Drazerk isn't in this game and we already killed his clone, so I have good hope of living through the night (not really).
I am living on borrowed time!
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On November 10 2012 08:30 DarthPunk wrote:
ok. Caught up. I am going to claim. Not because it is a good idea. (It isn't) But because a mass claim is has already happened and is being pushed on to me now. I strongly feel that blues should claim when they feel it is best and not when the thread (and possibly mafia/3rd party) does.
All in all I am fairly frustrated that I am being forced to claim but I suppose it doesn't matter as much now as it would have earlier.
Agreed and I already joined that club. To become a member you need to pay 10 euros. Or yell publicly in the thread "Acro is awesome".
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Oh yeah. Cool I completely forgot that. Good thinking! Add it to the line of impossibilities this game:
Prom cannot be scum unless scum has a 4man team OR Kush is SK and fakeclaimed roleblocked.
Same proof as for Release of course.
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On November 10 2012 08:35 kushm4sta wrote:
acro you are a dead man walking right now
You claiming SK?
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Ok. That throws all my logic overboard. There is funky shit going on.
2 full JKs and a 1-shot is:
JJJJ
Full RB and a 1-shot is:
RR
Full cop is:
C
That makes 0T, which gives:
Goon, RB, Godfather.
However, there is now a RB missing for this to work. There is also a surplus of KP.
WTF. This is weird.
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Or one of Mufa and DP is the scum roleblocker.
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On November 10 2012 08:55 thrawn2112 wrote:
acro: I'm not putting much faith in the setup speculation, for all we know bugs may be using something completely different
Then he has changed to something completely different all of a sudden without bothering to mention it: see the links to previous bugs setups.
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N1 I could see Zealos or Matt getting RB'd by scum.
N2 I could see scum RBing Release or Kush.
So an overlap of roleblocks is possible too.
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EPT
