EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXVI - Page 4
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Kreb
4834 Posts
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Kreb
4834 Posts
He is an absolute nullread. Which, considering we'll soon be down to 8 players, more and more looks mafia-ish. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 07 2012 20:56 JacobStrangelove wrote: Yeah cause our thing of lynching lurkers has worked out so well for us. Or wait no it hasn't... we should lynch someone we can actually find a scum slip on not someone who is convenient. That didnt answer the question. How did you have a townread on him? And Kville wasnt a lurker/policy lynch, as has been explained before. At the end he was also anything but lurkerish. Im not saying Im advocating an imcasey lynch, but initially nullreads are 3 in 12 being mafia. Down to 8 players, nullreads and still no hit, nullreads are 3 in (8 - <your amount of townread>). That not bad odds. Stutters remain my main suspect for now though. He is still on a grand total read-count of 1 throughout the whole thread and has given lackluster explanations to why he ignored replying to cases on him. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 07 2012 20:56 JacobStrangelove wrote: Also if you check back in my filter I give my reasons for town read on imcasey/WeeTee The only thing I found was this: Ok, So due to motivation stutters is likely to be scum. But I would like some answers out of Killing as to what he is thinking right now. Your only real strong read as the game went on was WeeTee but considering he didn't have time and had to leave the thread it is likely he is town without time. (now ImCasey) Which isnt a imcasey read but a WeeTee read (carrying over to imcasey). And its a bit strange to assume someone to be town because they had to leave the thread. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
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Kreb
4834 Posts
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Kreb
4834 Posts
Consider I think my survival chances are fairly limited, I'll make sure to help with what I can. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 08 2012 00:43 JacobStrangelove wrote: Well I have looked at krebs filter and honeslty I have nothing. He seems so completely town to me, the only thing that is odd is his frustrations regarding the kville thing + Show Spoiler + No shit. His play was so terrible on so many levels. When we needed him to post he didnt, and when he was going out he went on an accusation spree and created a massive shitfest for a few hours. Kvilles play was complete bullshit and should not have been allowed. This is pretty much the same as if we started at a 7-3 player situation, except we've had 72 extra hours of discussion. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://www.thadguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/modal-logic-can-solve-all-problems.png) Hey, I just googled logic and this is what I got, seems relevant enough! :p Players remaining 1) KillingTime 2) drazak 3) kushm4sta 4) WeeTee, replaced by imcasey 6) Xatalos 9) Kreb 10) Stutters695 11) JacobStrangelove 12) Sonic Death Monkey Assumed Town SDM Kush Jacob Kreb (for the rest of you) 1) We have, through attacks in the thread: Xata/Casey different alignment or both town 2) We have, through attacks in the thread: Kill/Stut different alignment or both town Xata/Casey both town not possible unless Kill/Stut/Draz scum team (not possible according to 2) Kill/Stut both town not possbile unless Draz/Xata/Casey scum team (not possib according to 1) As such both must be different alignment. -> Xata/Casey are different alignment Kill/Stut are different alignment Players remaining: Killing, Drazak, Stutters, Xata, Casey Possible combinations: A) Draz, Stut, Xata B) Draz, Stut, Casey C) Kill, Draz, Xata D) Kill, Draz, Casey What do these have in common!?!??!?!?!?!?!?! * Drum roll* + Show Spoiler + Drazak Some random further speculation. I focused on what these five players said about each other, ignoring what the rest said about them or what they said about the rest. I wouldnt put all that much weigth into this, but might be worth reading. Speculation 1: + Show Spoiler + Page 26 KillingTime: I think Kreb, Drazak & Sonic are town -> Doesnt mean anything, but might point towards C or D. A and B only means Killing is a town genuinely not thinking Drazak is mafia. Specualtion 2: + Show Spoiler + Page 26 KillingTime: I don't think Xatalos or Kville are bad lynches. -> Assuming this means Xata and Killing arent scum together -> Possible: A, B, D Speculation 3: + Show Spoiler + Page 26 Xatalos: Stutters has been making okay-looking posts recently as well. -> Assuming Xatalos has genuine reasons -> All still possible, but C unlikely (why would Xata let Stut off the hook otherwise?). Speculation 4: + Show Spoiler + Page 21 Casey: Stutters seems to have good post, spent time on analyzing/writing them, i think he got good content in his post, definitely not a vote candidate as i see it. -> All still possible, but D unlikely (why would Casey let Stut off the hook otherwise?). Might point towards B. A and C only means casey is a town genuinely not thinking Stut is mafia. Please note: - If Jacob, Sonic, Kush or I am mafia, all this is null and should be ignored. - If the Xatalos/Casey situation is fabricated, all this is null (though, that means you have two mafia and just need to find the third) -If the Killing/Stutters situation is fabricated, all this is null (same) But. -- Supposing all these three are true, Drazak is mafia. My own take on this: -The Killing/Stutters situation is as real as it gets. -The Xatalos/casey situation is a bit wierd. It seems two quite inactive players found each other somewhat randomly. I wouldnt completely put it past them to fabricate this, but I consider it not likely. Worth noting might be that in a previous mafia game Xatalos bussed his fellow mafia friend into glorious mafia victory all solo. So he is no stranger to crafty moves. -I consider Kush, Sonic, Jacob to be fairly solid town reads. Worth thinking about: What about roleclaiming after N2? I dont know, theres so many possibilities what could happen. But should there be a detective around with some solid reads, he might seriously consider roleclaiming. We also got rid of a (the?) miller. Only Godfather left (or 2nd miller, lets hope there is none....) to fuck up reads. A detective could fill in some blanks. Also, if anyone sees any problem with my reasoning, or find a reason to believe either or the three assumptions to not be true, its probably a good idea to tell. I dont wanna be the guy putting the final nail in the coffin for town. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
Given the reads I do think Stutters still remains the person who I think have been getting away with doing the least (excpet casey who I still believe to be a nullread). But Drazak might be the most solid vote given what I posted above. Xatalos, hard to read, neutral or nullread simply because he has barely been posting. KillingTime, havent really got time to dive into him as much as I maybe should have. Should I survive I'll probably do that. Casey is a nullread. Regarding townread. Kush and Jacob I both get the feeling they genuinely try to contribute and that their motives and actions are pro-town. Sonic still remains as someone who does thoughtful posts and solid reads imo. Out of the three townreads he is the one I'd most likely to believe has mind fucked us all and is a sneaky mafia :p But no, he seems very townish. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
GL town, but you can do it =) | ||
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