|
On September 03 2012 20:27 drazak wrote:
Well, if you want to prevent a no-lynch, vote kville, have you looked at his filter? Have you seen his previous activity in other mafias? Something seems fishy there and if he doesn't speak up there is absolutely no reason not to lynch him.
A) There will be no no-lynch.
B) Even supposing there would. Heres an argument: If you want to prevent a no-lynch, vote drazak.
See what I did there?
I wasnt really considering voting on you, but your reaction to thrawns accusation are not something thats in your favor. Questioning his understanding of sleeping patterns (wut?), the ever so common, "if I'd had been mafia I'd have done this to fool you" (you know there tens of ways of blending in, and theres no "this is what you should do as mafia, as then everyone would do it and be instantly reveald). Then you follow it up with a senseless claim that to prevent a no-lynch you have to vote Kville (wut #2).
I'm still leaning towards Cubu myself, but this had me thinking really.
|
On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote:
On a percentage basis I think it is more likely that cuba or weetee or stutters (who never asked those "questions" he was promising) or drazak are scum who have realised their mistake and are trying to cover for it - rather than kville who is being such a blatant lurk.
Good catch, forgot about that.
Any comments on this, Stutters?
|
Small note: if anyone has something to say I'd advice them to do it soon. Its 21:30 CET, which means there will likely be a few EUs going to sleep in 2-3h or sooner (3h ish in my case). Some EUs might not care to check the thread before sleeping either.
|
I'll probably not vote Kville for the reason that he should be replaced. But that reply after saying like 10 words in 40 hours sure as hell doesnt make him look better.
Possibly off topic:
+ Show Spoiler +English might not be my first languege, but I consider myself quite well versed. But I still have no idea what this means (I understand the words, not the meaning). On September 04 2012 04:47 Kville wrote:
proves and shows any connections to the game How does one "prove and show connection to a game"?
|
I really dont like that town seems to be forced to lynch 1-2 people for the purpose of them not contributing at all and playing (purposedly?) bad. If they flip town, we'll be down to 5-3 from 9-3 before we can start trying to find the real scum. If they flip scum, sure we'll likely win but theres gonna be little satisfaction winning against mafia either not trying or just playing terrible. But in the end trying to find the scum among the active posters (should be 1-2 of them at least) is an even worse choice considering we might go down to 5-3 while still having non-contributors left.
In summary: :-(
|
Stutters
You started off by ignoring this:
On September 04 2012 02:04 Kreb wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote:
On a percentage basis I think it is more likely that cuba or weetee or stutters (who never asked those "questions" he was promising) or drazak are scum who have realised their mistake and are trying to cover for it - rather than kville who is being such a blatant lurk.
Good catch, forgot about that. Any comments on this, Stutters?
Then you follow it up by posting this:
Part 2 Incoming. I just wanted to address the case against me first to give you guys times to look it over.
So, we got this part 2 coming anytime soon?
Or are you, for the second time, saying you will do something and then just ignore it?
|
Oh well. But to be quite honest I dont feel too bad about it. It would have been even more of a mess trying to single out someone scummy among the active posters. And hitting a town first day is to be expected. At least we didnt hit a blue.
Kush seemed to be the only one going heavy on Cubu. Rest kinda went with it because they were ok with it (myself included I guess). Though it's not really a town tell either if someone didnt bandwagon him either since it's very easy for a mafia to see where the votes are going and then post a weak case on someone else because they know we're lynching a townie anyway.
Also, welcome imcasey!
|
The biggest read I think we can get from this is that people who actively were opposed of the lynch early on before the bandwagon was rolling. Simply because a mafia will likely not commit to saving a townie. Either he will jump on the bandwagon or he will post a case on someone else who wont get lynched anyway. A quick look back reveals that Sonic as an early sceptic to the lynch. Thats a bit of towncred in my book.
|
He did reply to my post Sonic.
|
+ Show Spoiler +On September 03 2012 15:34 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:I think at this point we need to start some wagons, we need them to start with some time left for EOD to be able to get some reactions and information to work with. More than one, because have 2-3 wagons will give us better opportunities to analyze voting patterns later. I think the best strategy is to wagon suspect lurkers to force reactions/info and adjust accordingly. I'm sure there are at least one scum among the more active posters but we can deal with active posters later. My take on the lurkers (Kville, Cubu, drazark, stutters, weetee): KvilleEssentially hasn't posted anything. This is definitely suspect, but IF he is a townie who is just really busy starting a wagon won't force any reactions and thus he's not a good target for a wagon right now. Cubu:The weird spazz of this thread. A solid non-contributor. I tend to give the spazzes the benefit of the doubt. Let's look at his short posting history (highlighting points of interest): + Show Spoiler +On September 02 2012 11:02 Cubu wrote:
But how do you lynch that which you cannot see? On September 02 2012 11:04 Cubu wrote:
And it might be that they are busy doing something offline (school, work etc) so it's hard to judge whether they are lurking or just afk. On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote:
I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority.
3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention.
So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0. On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote:
guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers? On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote:
and its cubu, not cuba This is a really bad defense on his part. His posts doesn't make any sense. He suspects scum to have a plan of lurking, while being a lurker himself, and he doesn't know if there's 3 or 4 scum in the game. But the thing is, when looking at his posting history, he has to be on some weird ass level for him to be scum. Let's apply occram's razor, newbie scum don't level. As I said before, lurking scum usually tends to make their few posts rational (see: stutters). He comes across more as a confused townie to me. drazark:Contributes little to nothing. Claims to have little time to post due to helping his father to move. I don't think making up excuses like that is something scum would do to avoid posting. They already tend to start out the game feeling kind of guilty, spending the first entire day building up an unnecessary lie isn't very scum-like. Not a strong read either direction, he just recently posted and hopefully he can contribute more shortly. Stutters:Only made one post in this thread. In it he adds little in terms of analysis and rationalizes that a low post count doesn't have to be scummy by using an old thread as "alibi", which in itself is weak argumentation. Along with his non-contribution I think he makes a good lynching candidate. WeeTee:Not willing to let him off the hook after making a fluffy intro post and then a list of suspects mostly re-hashing old information/reads from earlier in the thread. A decent candidate for lynching, but since he's shown signs of being willing to contribute more, he might be better to reevaluate later. I personally favor a ##vote stutters wagon. I don't mind a cubu or weetee wagon to see how they react. Drazark would be fourth.
Thats the post im referring to Jacob about Sonic. Page 13. Thats towncred to me.
|
That was also before I had cast my vote. My vote was 2nd. So at that time it wasnt clear at all there would be a Cubu lynch. As such, going in as mafia and say that he comes off as a confused townie would be a bit risky move (obviously not something a crafty mafia would be unable to do, but its something).
|
On September 05 2012 01:03 thrawn2112 wrote:
##FOS Kville
[/b]
Hasnt he been FoS for everyone? :p
I dont even know what to think of him, but most likely hes trolling.
Though, one thing struck me. The OP says this:
Play to win.
Isnt Kville pretty much by default....
A) Scum
B) Breaking the rule
It could even be argued that he is....
C) Both
?
|
That blue text was meant to be in quote, not trying to play mod. Apologies if that wasnt clear.
|
On September 05 2012 02:31 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 02:09 Kreb wrote:On September 05 2012 01:03 thrawn2112 wrote:
##FOS Kville
Hasnt he been FoS for everyone? :p I dont even know what to think of him, but most likely hes trolling. Though, one thing struck me. The OP says this: Play to win.Isnt Kville pretty much by default.... A) Scum B) Breaking the rule It could even be argued that he is.... C) Both ? Yeah I think regardless of his alignment he's trolling. Based on how he posted near the voting deadline I was wanting to lynch him and I thought that kush was thinking the same thing as well, but at that point it was too late and not enough people were in the thread. (top of page 17) So what should we do about it? Trying to get meaningful posts and arguments out of a troll player is just going to result in more trolling so I don't want to spend a lot of time on it during D2 because of the odds. If we lynch him D2 and he's town, then we will be at 6:3 town/scum ratio if the night kill goes through without a save/rb. Policy lynching is ok for D1 but I don't really like it for D2. Kville, this is why if you are town you need to start participating.
I dont know. We could attempt to lynch him D2 while pleading for a modkill before the vote goes through should he be town. Maybe thats shitty because we basically cant lose, so mafia will be at a disadvantage. But I just cant see how he did not break the rule if hes town.
|
On September 05 2012 02:48 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 02:34 Kreb wrote:On September 05 2012 02:31 thrawn2112 wrote:On September 05 2012 02:09 Kreb wrote:On September 05 2012 01:03 thrawn2112 wrote:
##FOS Kville
Hasnt he been FoS for everyone? :p I dont even know what to think of him, but most likely hes trolling. Though, one thing struck me. The OP says this: Play to win.Isnt Kville pretty much by default.... A) Scum B) Breaking the rule It could even be argued that he is.... C) Both ? Yeah I think regardless of his alignment he's trolling. Based on how he posted near the voting deadline I was wanting to lynch him and I thought that kush was thinking the same thing as well, but at that point it was too late and not enough people were in the thread. (top of page 17) So what should we do about it? Trying to get meaningful posts and arguments out of a troll player is just going to result in more trolling so I don't want to spend a lot of time on it during D2 because of the odds. If we lynch him D2 and he's town, then we will be at 6:3 town/scum ratio if the night kill goes through without a save/rb. Policy lynching is ok for D1 but I don't really like it for D2. Kville, this is why if you are town you need to start participating. I dont know. We could attempt to lynch him D2 while pleading for a modkill before the vote goes through should he be town. Maybe thats shitty because we basically cant lose, so mafia will be at a disadvantage. But I just cant see how he did not break the rule if hes town. The problem with asking for a modkill is that there is always the extremely unlikely chance that he is town and actually thinks he is playing to win. There is also the problem that asking for a modkill under the condition that a player is a certain alignment puts the mod in a position where they would be unfairly giving out information. I think we should leave all discussion of modkilling to the mods unless he blantantly and unquestionably breaks rules.
Fair enough. I agree it would be a pretty dirty move to ask for a modkill like that (as I indicated in my previous post).
But in that case we might as well just auto vote him to get rid of him, regardless of alignment.
|
Ok, a bit of a if-I-get-kill-post here:
You deal with Kville in whatever way you feel comfortable. Personally I'm very likely to vote for him should i survive.
About the other commonly mentioned players: Drazak I think gave a genuine answer to the attack on him. It wasnt a particularly good defense in my opinion (which I pointed out), but I got the feeling it was more of an inexperienced townie defense. WeeTee/imcasey: no comments yet. I do think the strongest case we have on anyone apart from Kville is Stutters. No need to repeat whats been said about him again, but I do largely agree on the accusations on him. Should Kville turn out not to be a good option, I'm leanign towards Stutters as my secondary target.
Slightly more interesting might be the rest. There is likely at least one mafia hiding among those players. My biggest townreads are Thrawn and Sonic. Thrawn seems genuinely interested in scumhunting, asks relevant questions and posts relevant opinions. Sonic got towncred for his questioning of Cubu, I've explained my reasoning there before. I'd also say I think Jacob looks like a townie to me at the moment, though maybe not as clearly as Thrawn and Sonic.
My biggest mafia-read on the remaining players would be Xatalos. I think he came into the thread posting with descent activity initially. But eventually it his activity kinda went down, his vote on Cubu didnt convince me of anything, and I still havent forgotten how he commended Kush on Kushs initial jump on me (which was largely agreed on was not justified). Im not sure why someone would consider such a post to be "very proactive post with good reasoning".
Kush is another interesting topic. His posting went up notably after the initial jump. I'm still not completely conviced hes not trying to mindgame us all with a purposedly unjustified attack. That said, I'm not exactly suspicious of him either, but should I die at least I wish people to keep their eyes open on him.
The rest: Nothing really worth mentioning .
Thats about it for now. =)
|
That should be "His posting quality went up notably after the initial jump".
|
Thrawn was such an obvious target 
For that reason, I sadly dont really think theres much to gain from that. I mean, likely the only reason I would not wanna vote for him as mafia would be because it would be such an "obvious" JK/Medic target. But enough of that.
I've got a bunch of questions though:
To me, that main target is still Kville (with Stutters second). Me and Thrawn had a bit of a lengthy discussion about what do. Thrawn suggested a backup-plan lynch on Kville, but only really Sonic, KillingTime and Drazak chimed in.
Broad question: Is there really no one else who feel they want to add something regarding Kville? Surely there must be more opinions on him.
To KillingTime: You did agree to what Thrawn suggested. But in a veeeeeery broad and almost reluctact (?) way.
If I am still alive tomorrow, I will be voting for the player who I have the strongest scumread on, and my backup will be voting for someone who I have a less good read on but who is being pushed by people whom I have a townread on and who have made a good case.
Why wouldnt you reveal your townreads then? Thats like the most general wording ever "I will trust people who I have townreads on". No shit? So care to elaborate on what townreads you have? And dont you have any reads yourself or are you just gonna blindly follow your owntownreads?
To imcasey: Whats your take on Kville? And any opinion of Stutters (go back a few pages, right after D1 lynch to find the case on him)? Any townreads so far? WeeTee wasnt really contributing much at all, but I think its time you start too.
To Stutters: Still not a word since the D1 lynch. Maybe luckily for you, Kville is causing more attention to be drawn to him. But you really seem to like defending yourself with silence over actualy contribution. Come on, show us some opinions, mafia-read, townreads.
Dont really see the point of asking Kville anything, but yea, feel free to actually jump into the discussion if you have something to say.
|
One more, to Xatalos and Drazak: Since you both voted early. Why would you consider your current votes to be more likely mafia than Kville and maybe also Stutters?
I thought we were just kinda leaving Kville while discussing other reads in parallell, but with votes coming already, you must have a reason to not vote on the two most talked about targets?
|
On September 05 2012 17:57 KillingTime wrote:
@Kreb: I would consider kush & sonic (who i suspect d1 but for weak reasons and who has played well since then) to be the most town players at the moment, with Kreb & drazak someway behind them. They are all active and seem to be trying to help town. But many of them seem to be abit at loggerheads so I want to go through filters this afternoon and see whether I still agree with these reads.
I agree my post last night was broad/reluctant. That is because I broadly agree about kville, but really hope we can do better because even if kville is mafia he is the weakest member of the mafia as well in terms of finding the whole mafia team.
Fair enough. I see your argument but I dont agree. I we leave Kville and mislynch AGAIN (which seems much more likely should we not vote Kville), we'll be in a pretty bad spot. And finally getting a confirm on Kville being mafia means we can look back at how people responded to the accusations of him. Kville flipping town is almost unthinkable to me since I really dont see how he would be following the "play to win" rule then.
On September 05 2012 18:08 imcasey wrote:
I willl read trough the thread again but only focusing on townreads and post with any content in it, hoping that all the wishwash post dont make me lose alot of focus. I would like to here your opinion on kushm4sta though
Not much other than what I posted in my pre-night1-kill post. Im not really suspicious of him, but not as convinced as a few others seem to be either. But with 10 players left (9 not including myself), I would put him around maybe 5th-6th on the list of my most likely mafia players. In short, unless something new comes up you wont see me voting for him or agreeing with any bandwagon on him.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
