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Newbie Mini Mafia XXVI - Page 2

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 04 2012 01:28 GMT
#329
Sigh so he was just town with a bad defence. I guess now the fact that he didn't realise he was a lurker makes sence. After I get back will have to re-read the thread.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 04 2012 07:36 GMT
#342
Welcome I'm Casey!

On September 04 2012 10:40 Kville wrote:
O.O
##vote imcasey


Haha that was almost my reaction to having thrawn in the thread. Just policy lynch him but jokes aside.

We had 8 votes on cubu, 5 of which were town at least. (Some of the mafia might have when they realised it was a good lynch started up other lynches to seem town) (Part of the reason I still am not ruling out killing time)In my opinion there were far better people to lynch than WeeTee (now imcasey) although he did change his vote. The problem is it was such a good lynch. (At least at the time when I left the thread) There was little talk of a stutters lynch. And Drazak had just become active.

So who started the bandwagon? Who joined in?(in a strange manner) I am almost sure one of the three sonic, myself or killing is mafia. More killing because he promised a (probably longer post in the evening then just said goodnight.) Admittedly this is a really weak reason. That said I believe sonic said something was up (with cubu) and then kush and I latched on.

Just noticed kerb posted and Xatalos posted.
We shouldn’t feel too bad about it but it is annoying. YES Exactly Kreb about the weak lynch *cough* Killing *cough* also good point about who was opposed. However I thought sonic started the suspicion?

+ Show Spoiler +
On September 03 2012 00:56 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote:
I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority.

3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention.

So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0.


If that was the case, then Kville, TeeWee, dazark and you would be prime candidates. You're the ones flying under the radar atm.

The observations you make in this post are both obvious and have been covered earlier in the thread. It isn't very convincing and it makes you suspicious. I'm sorry if it's just due to inexperience, but if you want to contribute you need up your level of analysis. To update my list:

Townie:
kush
xatalos
thrawn

Scum:
teewee
cuba

Killer and Kreb dropped from suspect list due to solid contributions.



When did he become a sceptic? Was it after he got the ball rolling?

To Xatalos I would simply wait for Imcasey to start posting. Stutters would be a stronger read for me but that is just my opinion.

And now Sonic posts. It is true shouldn’t read too much into it but is this because you started this?

JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 04 2012 07:52 GMT
#345
Ohh I see. Interesting. Yeah he does lean closer to town now that you posted that and anybody would have picked up cubu on his post at least eventually.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 04 2012 08:31 GMT
#347
On September 04 2012 17:00 KillingTime wrote:
Sorry I thought we are not meant to discuss things until after the night post or did I misunderstand?
Show nested quote +
the game will be put on halt until the night post is up
and this just means we can't start voting again until after the night post?


Oh... never seen that before. I assume it's just not voting but it might be good to remain low key just incase.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 04 2012 13:42 GMT
#350
Ok, So due to motivation stutters is likely to be scum. But I would like some answers out of Killing as to what he is thinking right now. Your only real strong read as the game went on was WeeTee but considering he didn't have time and had to leave the thread it is likely he is town without time. (now ImCasey)

So what do you think now? I have been ranting at you for a while (maybe misguided) but you could give me something to go on. You also mention that it is
"Kush's Cubu wagon"
any particular reason for this? Just thought it was slightly strange that you would point out who started the wagon in particular.

Also you could have a scum motivation for trying to stop people talking at night. Just saying.

Also here
Leaving aside your other points for the moment
You left them aside forever. The only other comment you seemed to make was
Jacob, I did not find your response to me very helpful, it was clearly contradictory for you to say that my reads were very/too safe and then give the "reads" that you did.


You would think you could come up with something better than that? When people accuse me of things I list reasons why it's illogical and such. You seem to be hiding under short posts now.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 04 2012 14:09 GMT
#353
I am continuing to do reads incase I am killed. Although I doubt you would be as you seem an easier person to lynch. However I shouldn't discuss this section too much as I don't want to give them anything to work with. Also it does seem like a slight contradiction unless you mean he would be a pointless town to have. Also if you "Could care less" that implies that you care at least a little bit. Horrible american use of the saying... I know what you mean though.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 04 2012 14:40 GMT
#356
On September 04 2012 23:17 thrawn2112 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 04 2012 23:09 JacobStrangelove wrote: Also if you "Could care less" that implies that you care at least a little bit. Horrible american use of the saying... I know what you mean though.


lol gm league trolling from tyler


Haha, It's not so much the meaning or the straight logical definition it's the imposibility of telling how much someone could care. For example I would go I don't care much. I couldn't care less is also a problem as most people do care (why I didn't say he was wrong just saying the saying in it's self is annoying. But... I only brought it up because you said it was a contradiction when it might not have been.

(also this shouldn't even be an issue I just don't have anything else to say now lol)
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 04 2012 14:44 GMT
#357
Link about caring

JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 05 2012 00:50 GMT
#382
Ahh! Kreb I am glad you went back to xatalos. I was initialy going to ask you why you dropped the issue. But it seems it is back. Just woke up so give me time to get my head straight. (if I live) and I will start posting again.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 05 2012 00:51 GMT
#383
Oh just a note look at "cuba" as well people were miss spelling it left and right.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 05 2012 01:04 GMT
#386
Well that makes sence, he was almost completely confirmed town.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 05 2012 01:07 GMT
#388
That's dissapointing though, he was going to look through killings filter... gg thrawn, your death shall not be in vain. But we can assume they killed him before he mentioned Killing and Xatalos. Not sure if we can get anything out of this.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 05 2012 01:55 GMT
#396
Yeah if I was the medic I would probably have not realised he was the one to save until after the fact. As you say there might not even be a medic.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 05 2012 02:48 GMT
#398
Wait so both killling and Xatalos were going at weetee/imcasey? *cough* doesn't this sound right. Considering according to thrawn (confirmed town now) both had week reasoning for cubu and Xatalos was defending killing in a non committal way at one point(not much but...) Sonic case is so out of date though. Even I stopped harassing him as I ended up at least partially satisfied.

I would look at the Xatalos/Killing filters if I were you. They both seem to be starting a bandwagon. Xatalos starts it and then killing jumps on. I agree policy lynch on kville/stutters might be a problem considering the place it would leave us in.(if they flip town) That said I want to know more about you guys (kville and stutters) go out there say stuff. You are likely to get lynched before these guys so try and help us out. Also you would think he would wait for imcasey to start posting. I could be wrong so anyone feel free to point out any illogic here.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 05 2012 02:50 GMT
#399
Also if We lynch weetee/imcasey and he flips green we would probably turn to stutters or kville. If one of those is mafia (bussed or get the town{if one of them is town}) then it's almost a surely a mafia win.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 05 2012 03:10 GMT
#401
On September 05 2012 11:55 drazak wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 04 2012 03:01 kushm4sta wrote:
Why town should all vote for cuba

Worst case scenario:he flips green
No big deal, we lynched the worst townie (barring WeeTee whose behavior fits his meta like a glove, and kville who is being replaced). From his posts it's clear he has no intention of contributing more than he is already, which is nothing. Plus that would give thrawn some serious town points in my book, since he refuses to vote for him. Thrawn is good for town atmosphere and very active. It would be quite useful to our scumhunt if we could trust thrawn.

Best case scenario: he is mafia
If Cuba is mafia, I think there is a very high chance that thrawn is also mafia. In which case we will know 2 mafia first day and basically win the game.
People who are specifically against lynching cuba: cuba, thrawn.
People who have voted for or accused drazak: cuba, thrawn.
Twice now thrawn has attempted to redirect the lynch vote away from cuba onto somebody else.
Thrawn says he won't vote for cuba because unlike stutters, cuba has participated in the scumhunt. By scumhunt you mean his failed attempt to bandwagon drazak with you?

We need three more votes on cuba.


I'm bringing this post, and Kushm4sta into suspiscion. It seemed like you didn't actually think Cubu was mafia. Your reasoning (and lack there of) makes it clear that you weren't voting because you thought Cubu was mafia, but because you thought there was a slim chance of it and that then Thrawn would be a townie. T I think you might be mafia trying to lead town into bad lynches.

Why would you vote people who you don't think are mafia if you're town? I think you're mafia, Kush.

##Vote Kushm4sta


Well this does bring an interesting side to it. While what he said makes sense, the benifit we would gain from confirmed town was lost when that confirmed town died. Also Kush is going for Xatalos, now. (which I partly agree with) also xatalos (and myself) did go on the cuba wagon when it was tied up. So my theory that Killing Xatalos having a gamble scum (kville or stutters) could be correct. But then does that make Kush innocent? Also we lost the two that were going for drazak, so is drazak scum protecting himself with NK and lynch? (information over load). He goes for kush when kush goes at Xataos. Is he the third scum, and kiville a spazzy town, along with stutters? There is just to many possibilitys it's annoying.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 05 2012 04:48 GMT
#408
I have to admit it's doesn't make a lot of sence it just adds more to the party. What I was saying is what you said makes sence.. in a game right now but wanted to clear this up
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 05 2012 05:56 GMT
#409
I am supposed to be studying and then having dinner and such so I will be back properly after that. (more than just short posts) But things I would like to see happen is Stutters kville posting more and xatos and Killing discussing each other.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 05 2012 09:12 GMT
#415
No you have that completly wrong, I was more thinking you would town lynch WeeTee and then bus or town lynch whoever town disliked most out of Stutters kville. I know I am pushing you but it's mainly so I have more information. You are the only one I can force to talk at the moment as kville and Stutters seem like hopless cases.

That kind of theory crafting is how my head works... I might just keep it to myself though and only post my stronger theory crafting I guess...

I guess a more easy to understand method without including you and xatalos would be..

Kush is getting pushed on by Darzak who had both the people against him lynched. This makes it more likely that he is scum than kush is but we shouldn't fall into the trap if thinking kush is confirmed town just because thrawn thought so.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 05 2012 09:17 GMT
#416
And by forcing you to explain things you might either slip up or become townish. I am currently less suspicious of you as a result. But I should probably look into the Kush/Drazak situation more and leave you be for the moment.
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