EPTPlus, its quite obvious whos gonna get lynched. Some talk about whats coming after doesnt hurt, but a lot still depends on the flip.
TL Mafia LVII - Page 5
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Kreb
4834 Posts
Plus, its quite obvious whos gonna get lynched. Some talk about whats coming after doesnt hurt, but a lot still depends on the flip. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
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Kreb
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Also, didnt Rewok miss the vote? | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On September 15 2012 20:39 Kreb wrote: Rewok - He is up there together with Toad, but for a completely different reason. The reason he is up there is because I cant see how he hasnt purposedly gone completely lurk mode. This feels like something only a mafia would do (possibly because some other mafia (Toad?) told him do to so). Look a bit at his starting posts: + Show Spoiler + Holy shiet this thread gets going quickly! Alright, time to say hi :-) My name's Rewok. I haven't played with any of you before, so I'm gonna take this first post to tell you about my strategy for this game. I'll also give my reads, etc. But that's gonna be further down. Basically, I see the game like this. The goal for mafia is to stay alive. The goal for Town is to get rid of people. Knowing this, Town tends to be more bloodthirsty from the front. While Mafia's best strategy is to target specific people. Town strategy tends to lean towards "getting blood" right away. Because each person gone could kill a mafia. Worst case scenario, you know one person isn't a mafia. And you can get a better read from the filters. Mafia tends to want specific people dead, right away. They have better information. So they tend to skew towards "let's kill THIS PERSON. Otherwise, let's pass on the ban this round." (A little about me: I like to be careful about my scumreads. I'll only give a scumread if I've got a VERY strong hunch. My goal isn't to lynch townies. It's to make sure we use each lynch to nail a mafia and get this game over with quickly. Also - with every townie left alive.) Now that I've revealed this, the meta is gonna change. However, using the current filters from before I posted this, here's what I got: page 9 stop being paranoid - - - - - - READS << ps. holy filters, batman!! >> - - - - - - And: + Show Spoiler + When I say Town Read or Mafia Read, it's gonna be a firm read as far as I can tell. I'm not looking to change or update my reads every 1/2 day. My goal is to make reads that stick, which simply requires more info than we're got so far. (Zero votes and lots of bickering.) He comes into his first mafia game all fine and dandy with perfectly reasonable posting for a newbie, right? But then he completely shifts into lurker mode without saying anything! Would a newbie with all good-hearted and genuine goals not say anything? I find that very unlikely. He is apparently a bit taken by surprise by the amount of posting going on and how much he is supposed to keep up with. Wouldnt a town-newbie really excuse himself? Say stuff like "Im sorry I cant keep up this is taking too much of my time" or "Im not really used to this so Im sorry Im not helping much" or maybe even go as far as to ask for a replacement? We've seen nothing of that, instead he just goes afk completely. This might also be due to a mafia leading the pack (Toad?) telling him to stop with his "Im an innocent townie"-talk to not get attention drawn to him. Maybe mafia prefers him being easily bussable. Last part might have been far fetched by yea, I dont see his play fitting an innocent newbie. BUT, I might have something on Grush. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
Night 5 post: Palmar Iceland. September 18 2012 07:30. Posts 5910 Grush post night 5: grush57 Korea (South). September 18 2012 07:43. Posts 1372 13minutes after Night 4: Quatol Burkina Faso. September 15 2012 07:16. Posts 55 Grush: grush57 Korea (South). September 15 2012 07:29. Posts 1372 13min after Night 3: marvellosity United Kingdom. September 12 2012 07:01. Posts 5085 Grush: grush57 Korea (South). September 12 2012 07:18. Posts 1372 17min after BUT Also: grush57 Korea (South). September 12 2012 06:40. Posts 1372 21min before Night 2: Nothing close Night 1: marvellosity United Kingdom. September 06 2012 07:34. Posts 5086 Grush: grush57 Korea (South). September 06 2012 06:48. Posts 1372 46min before, but only 12min before deadline grush57 Korea (South). September 06 2012 07:50. Posts 1372 16min after My point: Grush has clearly been around 4 out of 5 nights. He was also posting soon before deadline Night 1 and 3. WHY WASNT GRUSH POSTING PRE-NIGHT 4, WHILE WE WERE ALL SWITCHING TO S&B? Obviously, not proof. And hes gonna say he wasnt there, which we cant say anything about. But lacking something on his posting content this might be something to go on. Gonna take a closer look at DP/BM tomorrow too most likely. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 18 2012 08:37 Bill Murray wrote: KREB HOW MANY SCUM DO YOU THINK THERE ARE? 2. Most likely within the trio: You, Grush, DP. | ||
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Kreb
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On the BKE case: On September 08 2012 06:39 grush57 wrote: Not hard defending him, I'm just pointing out things in your case. He isn't 100% scum, but if it comes down to it I'll probably vote for him. On a post made by Z-Boson targetted at S&B: On September 10 2012 05:25 grush57 wrote: Oh Z-Boson, you are so confused. S&B was not contradicting himself at all in that post. On September 14 2012 04:27 grush57 wrote: Nice find there sloosh. ##Vote: Maverick32x Also you guys don't get how BM plays. These are the only times he attempted to defend someone. One flipped green, but he also expressed that he'd be willing to vote for him. One flipped red. The third is still in the game (and Im very suspicious of). | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
grush57 - Highly suspicious Bill Murray - Suspicious DarthPunk - Neutral, gonna take a long read through his filter tomorrow ShiaoP - No reason to not believe the claim, town. imallison - The only town I feel I kinda could be wrong about, but still putting him on town side for S&B vote and previous filter-reading. Hopeless1dr - Tipped the vote against S&B, should be town. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 18 2012 09:45 DarthPunk wrote: I am kind of glad Rewok got mod killed because he would have been a serious liability tomorrow. Kreb Could you please post a case on me if you keep lumping in with BM and Grush as scummy. From what I have gathered you are suspicious of me because I have not been under suspicion and because I felt townie. Read my filter. Read my interactions with the other players in the game etc. and post a case. It is far preferable than what you are currently doing. Especially at LYLO. That goes for all of you. If you think someone is scummy Make a case. Bring as much info out into the open as possible. So that we can inform ourselves and make the best decision. The last cycle was terrible. We miss lynched shady and have no info and no discussion from it. Im not suspicious. I just kind of acknowledged that you're the one I've put the least thinking into. And given that no one else seems to neither put you as town nor mafia, that seems to fit others too. Also I tried to make it clear in the last post where I stand in your case. For now its 02:50 and I dont feel Im in a state where I wanna dive more deeply into this game until I've slept. I know I'll have time tomorrow too. I promise to post what I feel about you before the night kill, be it more mafia-like or town-like. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
What I see is a handful of sentences stating what the state of the thread is. I even go as far as to say that "Some talk about whats coming after doesnt hurt". Not gonna claim I encouraged discussion exactly either, because I wasnt. But please, do elaborate on how I "encouraged the non activity" and "made by best efforts" (I wonder what my worst efforts look like if thats my best....) to waste 48h. You're accusing me of shutting down a (highly contributory?) discussion which wasnt there. If you two guys had something to say, YOU should have said it. Im supposed to be responsible for you two not sharing possibly vital information by stating the situation? | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
Explain like Im 5 years old: Where do I do this? | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
I dont have anything I would call particularly scummy. The "problem" might be that he's largely been targetting BM (and a lttile bit onto Grush at the start) and since we havent seen BMs flip its hard to say what motives are behind it. But the cases he presents are at least well thought out and I agreed (and still agree) with a lot of the points. I find it unlikely they would be some kind of scum team trying to look like different alignment, the cases are a bit too extensive for that imo. That leaves the possibility of DP being scum and the others town, but thats waaaaaay less likely than the other way around with the way Grush and BM has behaved throughout the game. So here we go: Im calling Grush/BM scum team. Grush: Already posted about him two posts recently. The cases arent exactly waterproofs, but considering their his activity its pretty much impossible to create one. But with mostly solid town reads on the rest and medium scum reads on Grush, I see no other option. + Show Spoiler + On September 18 2012 09:26 Kreb wrote: Worth noting on Grush too: Hes called lots of people scummy, but the following three posts were the only three I could find where he was (very very soft) defending people. On the BKE case: On a post made by Z-Boson targetted at S&B: These are the only times he attempted to defend someone. One flipped green, but he also expressed that he'd be willing to vote for him. One flipped red. The third is still in the game (and Im very suspicious of). + Show Spoiler + On September 18 2012 08:09 Kreb wrote: I cant really say I have much due to what he has said. But I decided to take a different approach to this. And I might have found something. Lets look at Grushs posting habits around night posts: Night 5 post: Palmar Iceland. September 18 2012 07:30. Posts 5910 Grush post night 5: grush57 Korea (South). September 18 2012 07:43. Posts 1372 13minutes after Night 4: Quatol Burkina Faso. September 15 2012 07:16. Posts 55 Grush: grush57 Korea (South). September 15 2012 07:29. Posts 1372 13min after Night 3: marvellosity United Kingdom. September 12 2012 07:01. Posts 5085 Grush: grush57 Korea (South). September 12 2012 07:18. Posts 1372 17min after BUT Also: grush57 Korea (South). September 12 2012 06:40. Posts 1372 21min before Night 2: Nothing close Night 1: marvellosity United Kingdom. September 06 2012 07:34. Posts 5086 Grush: grush57 Korea (South). September 06 2012 06:48. Posts 1372 46min before, but only 12min before deadline grush57 Korea (South). September 06 2012 07:50. Posts 1372 16min after My point: Grush has clearly been around 4 out of 5 nights. He was also posting soon before deadline Night 1 and 3. WHY WASNT GRUSH POSTING PRE-NIGHT 4, WHILE WE WERE ALL SWITCHING TO S&B? Obviously, not proof. And hes gonna say he wasnt there, which we cant say anything about. But lacking something on his posting content this might be something to go on. Gonna take a closer look at DP/BM tomorrow too most likely. BM: Little needs to be said which I havent already said in various posts. But a quick recap. - He is not answering to questions - He is switching votes on and off people all the time - He doesnt explain why these vote switches occur - Hasnt built a single serious case and attempted to push it through - He has taken lots and lots of chances to taunt us by purposedly expressing opinions rivalling the general opinion, to further build him as "someone who just plays like that". - He is, obviously, well aware that hes doing all of this. But what motives would you have to not do this? The obvious answer is that by purposedly "overacting" his scummyness he can hide behind a notion that people will excuse him because "its his meta". Now, I would very much like DP/allison/hopeless/Shiao to comment on this? Do you agree? Is it weak, if so why? Do you have any other solid reasons to believe anyone else is scummy? Lets get this discussion going. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
Yes, very much. I can agree with the last part now (still not agreeing with "encouraging non activity"). Its absolutely true I made no effort to stop it. I saw no point since we were quite unanimous and it would have felt very "forced" trying to find an alternative target when we were already happy with the current one. I thought thats how everyone was reasoning, considering no one made an effort to stop the (mis)lynch. Oh well. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 18 2012 17:39 DarthPunk wrote: We needed to push discussion during that lynch because of this exact scenario and to mitigate damage if we mislynched by having something to go off during LYLO. What you did was anti town. As far as I understand, the anti town part I did was not pushing this discussion you mention. If thats anti town to you, then I agree I acted anti town. However, then I also think everyone acted anti town, because no one did push it. | ||
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Kreb
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On September 24 2012 08:06 DarthPunk wrote: Meh. This victory feels hollow. Shiao pretty much figured us out and the only reason we won was because grush thought I was a newb. Anyway. It has been a LONG road. GG all. Yea dont say that. Mafia deserved it imo. Excluding ShiaoPi the last like 8 or 10 townies were pretty lost. I wouldve felt pretty hollow had we won because it wouldve felt like a cointoss at the end with grush/bm there. Also the biggest help came from an assassin lol (sloosh with the s&b case). | ||
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