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TL Mafia LVII - Page 10

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Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
September 09 2012 05:24 GMT
#1478
On September 09 2012 14:19 DarthPunk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 09 2012 14:14 Hapahauli wrote:
On September 09 2012 14:11 DarthPunk wrote:
On September 09 2012 14:08 Hapahauli wrote:
Ugh fuck going to bed, I need to revenge-tunnel you a bit.

Why didn't you pursue your read of Z-Boson?


Because I am lazy. Matt was being Lynched and Z- Boson seemed to post a lot better later on.


But in all seriousness, you're blaming me for not pursuing Z-Boson when we were on the exact same page about why we thought he was town?


No. I am blaming you for tunnelling BKE and not even considering BKE could be town despite his claim. Even though you had made peace with another person being town whom was guilty of the same things you used in your case on BKE.
And I DO NOT think Z - Boson is town. I am suspicious of him as I am of you and of everyone in this game. The only town reads I had were of BC and DrH.


Let's go back to our states of mind at the beginning of D2. At that point, we both thought Z-Boson was town yes? At that point in the game (thinking Z-Boson was town based on meta), I went back through filters and saw BKE's post. I had no such meta read on BKE and thought BKE was scum.

As for why I tunneled BKE without considering he was town - I thought he was scummy as shit. I had no reason to believe he was town. Should I have believed he was town in hindsight? I don't know. I liked my case and it was wrong. Shit happens.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
September 09 2012 05:45 GMT
#1480
On September 09 2012 14:40 slOosh wrote:
Cool your heads - this is probably more detrimental than beneficial.

Vig, decide for yourself what you want to do with your second bullet. Cross reference what you take out of the BKEXE mislynch with the Mattchew lynch and a lurker list.


Well on the bright side, I got two strong town reads out of it.

Anywho, it's almost 2am. Gnite for real this time.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
September 09 2012 16:26 GMT
#1525
First off, I don't buy ShiaoPi's excuse. If Shiao is moving into university as he is suggesting, I find it hard to believe he'd sign up for a Mafia game if he knew his schedule. He was also plenty active to respond to Maverick's suspicion against him - and much more frequently than the "10 minute loading time" per page he was suggesting about his internet earlier.

Finally, Shiao's only standing read is an OMGUS against Maverick.

Strongly suggest shooting him tonight.

Also, I won't be as active for the next few hours, so I wanted to comment on...


Bill Murray

This is mostly based on his actions (inactions?) during the BKE lynch.

Right around when I dropped the case on BKE, Bill Murray had a burst of 6 short posts, all compiled into one larger one for your convenience:

id love to lynch maverick or hapahauli
why are people voting BKE?
can i get a summary of the case?

Hapahauli's link doesn't count = 13 lines of rubbish he linked ON THE SAME PAGE

If Doyouhas is town we don't lynch Hapahauli
If Doyouhas is scum we lynch Hapahauli
imo

I'll be here for a few hours if anyone would like to discuss anything

I had a post about associative tells, but honestly, I'm not even going to bring another one up. I'll be waiting to push someone on hard evidence, like what I found (not saying it was my case.. but filtering him, it glared out at me... so i found it as well) on Mattchew.


I summarized the case for him and never heard back from him. The only post he made between there and after the lynch is this weak-sauce soft-push of BKE:

On September 08 2012 15:40 Bill Murray wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 08 2012 03:12 BroodKingEXE wrote:
On September 07 2012 11:37 Hapahauli wrote:
Before I go to bed for the night:

BroodKingEXE

He has two very suspicious posts regarding two confirmed players: Mattchew and Ottoxlol.



A bit before Mattchew is scum-confirmed (right around when a few players start voting for Mattchew), Broodking posts this unbelievably wishy-washy opinion on Mattchew.
On September 04 2012 16:20 BroodKingEXE wrote:
About Mattchew (who I think is town):
Here's my breakdown of the situation : Matt's roleclaimed and given two reasons he claimed to avoid mislynch and/or draw a mafia shot. At first glance the roleclaim seemed like a great idea, but as I thought about it there were just too many holes. My initial thought was that it was a good idea and that could have been Matt's (based on the reasoning too). Another problem I find with lynching him is that what he has done (roleclaim) isn't verifiable until he is lynched. Right now its a coinflip and I haven't seen anything else that suggests he is scum. Fakeclaims aren't good basis for a lynch, they're not even able to be confirmed until the lynch, so I cant vote for him unless his posting sounds scummy.


Look at the logic - he first thinks its a great idea, then there are "too many holes."
He doesn't want to lynch him because his "roleclaim isn't verifiable until he is lynched" - the hell?
He said he's town originally, then says "its a coinflip"
Then he says "Fakeclaims aren't good basis for a lynch" and wants to wait until "mattchew sounds scummy". Again, the fakeclaim is the entire reason everyone voted for him.

But wait! Two pages after the fakeclaim (and before Mattchew posted anything in the interim):
On September 05 2012 00:12 BroodKingEXE wrote:
Unvote
##Vote: Mattchew


Wow.


After stating earlier that the fakeclaim wasn't enough to lynch Mattchew, he votes Mattchew for that very reasoning.



His viewpoints on Ottoxlol are the nail in the coffin:

Goes from top scumread:
No, his response was belivable based on posts he made after his sloosh interaction. Ottox has replaced him [ed note: Broodking's scumread on Toad due to the fact that he is pushing a "Matt is an assasin/townie scheme" instead of pushing his scum read toad.


Then proceeds to push cases against Miltonkram, Shadysands, and Gravan while Ottox is his top scumread:

Then says strange things about potentially townie Ottox while keeping a scumread on him.
filter
My 2 cents about the Ottox thing. I played with him in Area 53 and he's as stubborn as a mule. I could see him trying to derail a lynch from a town perspective. I just don't get why as town he wont push a lynch canidate (in all seriousness his isn't doing much to push toad or hapa). That's why Im keeping a scum read on him.


Then SOFT DEFENDS OTTOX when talking to DrH
On September 06 2012 16:03 BroodKingEXE wrote:
On September 06 2012 15:39 BlackMamba24 wrote:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=329128&user=124671&currentpage=2

I see a clear attempt to be helpful and constructive here, at least over the first couple pages. Not belligerent, listening to other players, pressuring people, making a real effort to help the town. Seems very different to me.

It was later in the game from what I remember, just that he doesn't really listen (or ignores) others logic.




BroodKingEXE is scum!

##Vote BroodKingEXE

I've got a break to post. The reason I didn't like the idea of voting for a fake-claim is because short of Mod-confirmation, we wouldn't have any way to confirm BC's theory. I switched my vote because the fake-claim was confirmed and Mattchew had made no attempt to explain the fake-claim from a town perspective.

considering... like... people (a guy named xelin, off the top) have had nosy-neighbor roles before? i disagree w this


This is the only post he makes during the BKE push. Note that he doesn’t take a stance and simply disagrees with BKE’s defense.

Then, after the BKE lynch...

i cant believe you all lynched BKX
You all need to listen to me, even if I've been drinking lightly.


All of a sudden, he acts as if he was against BKE the whole time. Now I’m not sure if BillMurray is capable of doing stuff like this as town (his normal posting is scummy after all), but this specific thing seems scummy as hell to me.


a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
September 09 2012 16:51 GMT
#1526
^To continue the above:

Bill Murray reads to me like he didn't give a shit who got lynched on D2.



Regarding ShadySands "case" or whatever

I find most of the reasoning insane, so I'll dispatch of this as quickly as possible:

This + Hapa flipflopping on Ottox, while remaining adamant about BKE based on the same reasoning that led him to flip-flop on Ottox himself.

If Palmar has put a vet in the scumteam, Hapa looks like the biggest candidate.


Already replied to DarthPunk's post, and he looks satisfied enough not to pursue it.
I thought Ottox was town because he consistently hard-defended Mattchew. The more I saw him hard defend Mattchew, I eventually became convinced he was bad town. Yes, I thought BKE flip-flopped on Mattchew in a scummy way - BKE never explained his rationale for it and made a complete 180. I don't know what about this is "inconsistent"

As for the Palmar putting a "vet" on the scumteam, how the hell am I a vet - this is my 5th game and 2nd non-newbie game? Hell why are you speculating on how Palmar chose teams? Plus within the bounds of your argument, Mattchew is a vet and already flipped red.


1) Hapa is playing off his meta while ignoring my shift on meta.
2) Hapa is being very selective/arbitrary in his scumhunting, and so far has led us to mislynch someone. Note that neither part of #2 is scummy on its own, but when taken together, are a clear scumtell.


You still haven't described how I'm playing off my meta. You keep pointing to Newbie XXIII, while ignoring my scum-meta in XXII (where I was incredibly consistent in my reads I might add).

Wtf does "selective/arbitrary" mean? I got a read wrong, shit happens. A mislynch doesn't make me scum. I find it strange you're blaming me for a mislynch considering our "history" together. You've been spouting stuff about how I'm a good scumhunter and wouldn't lead a mislynch based on Newbie XXIII, when in fact, you've otherwise been consistently accusing me of cheating/getting-lucky in that game. You need to explain this.
#1 and #2 taken separately aren't scumtells. When someone puts them together and decides its a scumtell, they're on hard hallucinogens.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
September 09 2012 18:00 GMT
#1532
@ Austinmcc - I'll be honest, I really don't think Z-Boson is scum for some reason. I really see his interaction with GoodKarma as genuine, and his play this game is different enough from his scum play in Newbie XXIV to make me lean town on him. He was super-lurky in the first few days as scum in that game.

I'll have to look at his filter more if I'm alive tomorrow, but I still think he's town.

@ Toadsstern -

I'm starting to agree based on the post where he declared me and Maverick his top scumreads. He was really eager to jump on the BKE wagon (that I, one of his top scumreads, pushed), and spent most of the day tunneling BKE. He hasn't attempted to follow up on his reads on Maverick or I since that post.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=361826&currentpage=53#1045

His lack of pursuit of Maverick especially bothers me, because he spent most of his early-game tunneling him.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
September 09 2012 21:26 GMT
#1575
On September 10 2012 06:16 Toadesstern wrote:
I think I've seen Shady twice in newbie games and the general idea about his town meta seems to be something along the lines of
"not posting at all, lurking not contributing" so I wouldn't say his play is off meta-based at all.
Yeah it's hearsay because I haven't played with him myself but that's not a reason to lynch him. If it is you would have to say BM is mafia as well while we both seem to agree that BM looks somewhat townish.

Shady looks bad because of posts that just scream "LYNCH ME" like those:

Show nested quote +
On September 09 2012 01:36 Shady Sands wrote:
On September 09 2012 01:35 Toadesstern wrote:
On September 09 2012 01:32 DarthPunk wrote:
On September 09 2012 01:27 Toadesstern wrote:
On September 09 2012 01:21 DarthPunk wrote:
On September 09 2012 01:15 Toadesstern wrote:
I'm thinking about this claim and I've got to say I don't like lynching BKE right now although I said otherwise an hour ago before thinking this trough.

It just really doesn't make sense right now. The only thing I dislike about BKE's claim is that he claims BM24 was suicide bombed and not BC because I consider BC more likely to be the target, but BM24 being the target isn't out of the ordinary that much.

On top of that with Palmars statement it really could be he's telling the truth and if something like:
Suicide vs BM24
1KP vs BC
1KP vs other vet (myself, maybe Foru or whoever else) or someone being really active (not going to call names here for obvious reasons) who got protected isn't that unlikely at all.

The thing about late switches is they almost always turn out bad because they're not thought through and mafia has an easy time to manipulate. I'm pretty sure that either Shady or Grush is mafia right now and I could see both flipping red (though not both), so we could go for either of those two but as mentioned, those things really go wrong all the time...


It Is also bad to potentially mislynch a watcher. I would rather mislynch a VT then a Watcher. If that is the worst consequence from mafia manipulation. So be it.

Of course it's bad to lynch a watcher but we can't consider that a reason to not lynch him and have to take both lynching a VT and a Watcher as equally bad.
If we don't we're giving mafia the easiest time ever to just get in here "LOL I'm a mad hatter" and everyone insta unvotes because of something that can't be proven at all.
That being said I still dislike the BKE lynch right now and would prefere a grush lynch.


Hmm I hadn't thought of that. In my last game The scummiest player claimed vig after a vig shot. He was so scummy no one believed him and he was lynched, In the obs QT Marv said that lynching blue claims was something newbies loved to do. I understand your point about all scum making easy claims. But this wagon smells. Grush smells. I skimmed through the thread and alarm bells started blaring in my head.

well yeah I agree. I really don't like the situation we're in right now. Lynching BKE sounds really stupid right now and I don't like Grush's attitude at all.

I'm going to vote for Grush. I've still got about an hour left before I have to go so let's see what we can do and whether or not it's possible.
##vote Grush

Alright, let's get this wagon going.

##Vote Grush


I will say that while Shady has recent active scum and town meta, he did play a lurky mafia style in Newbie XXIII (both the aborted game in the beginning AND the reset game).

That being said, I don't think his lurkiness is necessarily an indication of his alignment. I don't think he as mafia would go after me with a case when I have a reputation of OMGUSing the shit outta people,
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
September 09 2012 21:30 GMT
#1577
Anywho, I'm off until after the deadline. GL surviving y'all.

Summary in case I get shot:
I have my eye on Bill Murray and Forumite for reasons posted earlier in my filter.

I also have somewhat of a lesser-eye on Sloosh - even though he was the first to vote Mattchew, looking back at his filter, I do find it odd that he was so sure that one of BC or Mattchew was scum, even though I agreed with him at the time (they could've both been town). Also, he sheeped several cases on D1. Call it a gut feeling, but I think there's something to discover there.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
September 09 2012 21:32 GMT
#1578
Oh, and ShiaoPi needs to get shot. That's all.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
September 09 2012 22:33 GMT
#1589
GG town!
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
September 23 2012 22:13 GMT
#2808
Best. Flavor. Ever.

GG! Props to ShaioPi for navigating through the endgame of my nightmares.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
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