|
On August 26 2012 01:47 Lvdr wrote:
@spags + anyone else that wants to comment
I don't like Shady as a d1 lynch for these reasons:
1. I think there is a legit meta case for shady being town. His aggression and tunneling so far does match Newbie Mafia IV where he got mislynched d1 as an overeager townie.
2. He has been active enough that I think that if he is mafia we will be able to catch him later based on stances he has taken.
3. As a general rule, lynching active but contriversial players D1 leads to mislynches.
I agree entirely with #2 and #3, and with #1 as long as I add a bit to it. Shady is behaving as he did in XXIV, and we mislynched him. I do think that Spag's post raised good points (and I will try to comment on anything I disagree with before the lynch), but Lvdr's #2 covers my overall reaction to a D1 Shady lynch.
Dismissing Shady's play as following his town meta is a mistake. I did that throughout all of D1 in XXIV with YourHarry and as anyone who followed that game knows, that was a mistake. I'm not going to accept "it's his meta" to dismiss scummy behaviour, since a scummy town meta is, well, scummy. That being said, if Shady is scum, he is definitely catchable at a later date. In this, #2 and #3 will override my aversion to accepting #1.
|
Also, does anyone have any comments on my case on Lvdr? I'd like any feedback at all from someone who isn't myself or Lvdr.
@Dandel Ion, Alsn, kushm4sta
Please get a vote in soon. Scum already have the advantage during the lynch, so we need all of the information we can get asap. We know your vote may change, but who is your strongest scumread at the moment?
|
(players remaining+1)/2 = (9+1)/2 = 5
|
@Lvdr
I looked through his filter, and Dandel lon does look quite scummy. In addition to what you've said, I'd like to add that he's promised twice to be present before the lynch (once "(well) before"), and hasn't appeared yet, with only three hours remaining. I'd like to hear anyone else's take on my case, as well as Dandel lon's response to your case, before switching my vote. If we don't hear from him at all, I'll certainly switch as I feel that you've now taken a significant stand on something.
@ghost
My mistake, my sight must be slipping  Though I expect you to be modkilled for editing your post! >:|
|
On August 26 2012 04:09 Lvdr wrote:
Dandel had to make a pick for his vote. Kush and WeeTee have been two of the most scrutinized players, and they are by far the most obvious and non-controversial targets. He needs to provide a better lynch target than himself and those two are the major possibilities.
To be fair, the current options are kush, weetee, yourself, himself, and shady. Most of us have made it clear that they don't want to vote for Shady atm, he won't vote for himself, most people have issues with my case (which I am agreeing with now that I feel you're contributing) and that leaves WeeTee and kush.
|
EBWOP: got totally ninja'd. Sorry for that.
Seconding the ##FoS on kushm4sta for his rage vote. We're really trying to give you a chance to step up. Don't OMGUS vote, don't use only WIFOM to support your reasoning, and actually comment on something that isn't a direct threat to you. Townies defend themselves most strongly through their actions, and you've been doing it in a pretty scummy way.
|
On August 26 2012 04:23 Lvdr wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2012 04:18 mkfuba07 wrote:On August 26 2012 04:09 Lvdr wrote:
Dandel had to make a pick for his vote. Kush and WeeTee have been two of the most scrutinized players, and they are by far the most obvious and non-controversial targets. He needs to provide a better lynch target than himself and those two are the major possibilities.
To be fair, the current options are kush, weetee, yourself, himself, and shady. Most of us have made it clear that they don't want to vote for Shady atm, he won't vote for himself, most people have issues with my case (which I am agreeing with now that I feel you're contributing) and that leaves WeeTee and kush. This is so spot on.
I was actually defending dandel lon with that post.
|
##Unvote
Naturally, I'm currently looking at Dandel lon or WeeTee. As far as Dandel lon goes, I'm ignoring the fact that he's voting for WeeTee, because that is basically his only viable option. WeeTee's vote, on the other hand, I find to be one of his most suspicious actions. He votes for kush for the same reasoning that he uses to defend himself. Also, though I know there's a lot of speculation as to whether or not the JK claim was real, saying "I'd rather lynch him and know if he was JK than keep wondering" (paraphrased) is scummy. Whether or not you believe kush's role claim, WeeTee's reason for voting for him is anti-town.
For Dandel lon, his main defense against the accusations is that the main point of Lvdr's argument is that he's experienced and should be posting better. I don't think that that's the strongest aspect of Lvdr's case. The fact that until just recently everything Dandel lon's said was policy (acceptable to a point), comments that appear to be contributing (slightly suspicious), and wishy-washy reads (suspicious) with about 17 hours of lurking following it, is the heart of the matter for me. It's not just the lurking, it's the active lurking before that.
##vote Dandel lon
|
On August 26 2012 05:27 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2012 05:26 Lvdr wrote:
@dandel
Prior to the deadline clusterfuck, I posted a case on you that your posting profile was extremely scummy. For the record both thrawn and mkfuba looked at your filter and agreed it looked scummy. At that point I decided you were by FAR the best lynch target, and I have yet to see a good reason to change that stance. How are you so sure Thrawn and Mkfuba are town?
Since you've mentioned this, I was actually surprised to find myself on Dandel lon's townie list as well. I didn't think that my play has been much better than a null read at best. Though I may just be judging myself too harshly.
|
I am willing to switch to WeeTee, as I've stated that I still find him suspicious, though we need three more votes on him for a lynch. Can we get that?
|
##Unvote
##vote WeeTee
I do feel reluctant for reasons that I can't quite explain, but I truly want to avoid a no-lynch, and WeeTee is my second scumread anyway.
|
I'm gonna go to a sweetcorn festival, but getting high sounds like a good time too.
|
I don't have much time today to post before the NK, though I believe I'll be back before the Daypost. I think that the cop should investigate Dandel lon. If he ends up being scum, there is so much information to be gained from the D1 vote. It will indicate that someone who took part in the exodus from Dandel lon is likely the remaining scum, as well as possibly confirm some people as townies. Though most of the players in the game were in on the WeeTee lynch (which makes sense with a majority vote), I believe that the possibilities can be narrowed down.
As far as kush and the JK claim go, I see so many reasons for kush to have claimed JK because he is JK, and virtually none if he is scum. Everyone agrees that (at least until more recently) he was/is a pretty weak player. Town kush claiming JK makes complete sense in this case. Scum kush would have had to form a plan that is inconsistent with how he behaved up to that point and in complete opposition to his lack of understanding of how to play this game (which it seems he's beginning to understand). I still believe that pursuing cases against him is a waste of time.
|
On August 27 2012 10:25 thrawn2112 wrote:What do you guys think about mkfuba? I'm gonna quote some of his posts regarding WeeTee. Show nested quote +On August 26 2012 01:11 mkfuba07 wrote:My second candidate at the moment is WeeTee. Though in general I agree with Spag's recent posts, Thrawn raises a good point in that WeeTee has yet to take a side in most matters. Also, he has voted for kush because of his defensive, inexperienced play, when WeeTee himself is using it in his own defense as a bad townie. I would prefer to vote for him only as a last resort, but am willing to as he was my second scumread earlier in the game. As an aside, I realize I didn't mention this earlier. I found him more suspicious than kush for reasons that I couldn't put into words, so I didn't comment on him until I found out what was bugging me. Thrawn's post showed me what I was missing. In that post he says his 2nd scumread is WeeTee. He says that WeeTee was also his 2nd scumread earlier in the game for reasons he couldn't put into words.
All correct. I don't like declaring my reads without being able to support them. If, earlier than that, I had just said, "I find WeeTee suspicious, but I don't know why. ##FoS WeeTee," nothing would have come of that but suspicion towards me, which naturally I don't want to attract.
Show nested quote +On August 26 2012 05:48 mkfuba07 wrote:
##Unvote
##vote WeeTee
I do feel reluctant for reasons that I can't quite explain, but I truly want to avoid a no-lynch, and WeeTee is my second scumread anyway. Another instance of him mentioning WeeTee and reasons that are unexplainable.
I suppose thinking back that my reluctance was based around the fact that I did, indeed, find dandel lon more suspicious. There were valid reasons to vote for WeeTee, but I didn't like being forced to switch to my second scumread simply to avoid a no-lynch.
Look at his filter and you'll see he doesn't give a scumread until halfway into D1 and only does so because someone asked him for a read. Up till then he wasn't suspicious of anyone. Here's the timestamp of the post if you wanna look it up: Before the vote his top scumread was lvdr. Then out of nowhere there is this post: Show nested quote +On August 26 2012 05:29 mkfuba07 wrote:
##Unvote
Naturally, I'm currently looking at Dandel lon or WeeTee. As far as Dandel lon goes, I'm ignoring the fact that he's voting for WeeTee, because that is basically his only viable option. WeeTee's vote, on the other hand, I find to be one of his most suspicious actions. He votes for kush for the same reasoning that he uses to defend himself. Also, though I know there's a lot of speculation as to whether or not the JK claim was real, saying "I'd rather lynch him and know if he was JK than keep wondering" (paraphrased) is scummy. Whether or not you believe kush's role claim, WeeTee's reason for voting for him is anti-town.##vote Dandel lon His first scumread of the game was lvdr, and then he votes for lvdr, and then all the sudden his 2 scumreads are dandel lon or WeeTee? What happened to lvdr being his strongest scumread?
When I post a case against someone and it's ignored for over a day before someone comments on it only because I've explicitly asked everyone for feedback, and the feedback from the 2-3 people who actually respond is basically "he's pretty town", then I begin to question my read. On top of that, at that point we needed to come to an agreement and I didn't see that happening regarding Lvdr, so I had to decide between the two viable candidates at the time. Both showed evidence of scummy behavior, and Dandel lon became more suspicious to me than WeeTee upon closer inspection of his filter. My growing suspicions of Dandel lon made also made me question my read on Lvdr, because Lvdr is the one who wrote the case on Dandel lon. Also, a major aspect of my read on Lvdr was the lack of a committed read on anyone, which was provided in Dandel lon. As for my current reads on Lvdr, I'll need to review his filter again because I haven't had any time since the vote to analyze anything.
He makes suspicious posts about WeeTee and has a lack of consistency in what was his "top" scumread. He didn't accuse anyone of being scum until he was asked to and said his top scumread was lvdr. Then he votes for lvdr and says WeeTee is his back up plan and that he's been suspicious of WeeTee the whole game for reasons he didn't know at the time. Then lvdr suggests voting for dandel and all the sudden mkfuba abandons his top scumread (lvdr) and doesn't mention him again for the rest of the game. Mkfuba votes for dandel. Then close to deadline he switches his vote for WeeTee and once again talks about his unexplainable feelings.
##FOS mkfuba07
I was consistent with my Lvdr scumread. All of my posts for an entire day (limited though my availability may have been) were either trying to get kush to stop playing horribly (one post and an EBWOP) or supporting my suspicions of Lvdr (3 substantial posts that were ignored for about 24 hours). You can't ignore everything I say about Lvdr and then say that I'm not supporting my read.
When I was asked for my scumread, I gave it. I won't apologize for my more timid playstyle. Some are almost irrationally aggressive and nit-picky (Shady), and some are more cautious. I'm the latter.
Also, considering the majority of D1 was spent discussing kush when I thought it was a completely stupid case against him, I had little to say other than trying to get kush to stop acting like a noob so that everyone else would finally move on. I felt like I was simply repeating the previous two games where someone does something dumb and noobish and the entire team pounces on him like ravenous dogs.
Above I've addressed the rest of this paragraph, excluding the last sentence. To explain that, I'll point the the multiple times that I said that I would do whatever it takes to avoid a no-lynch. Since you said you would rather no-lynch than vote for Dandel lon, the only option was hopping on your bandwagon.
|
On August 26 2012 17:32 thrawn2112 wrote:
Well it seems like shady and lvdr are incredibly pissed at each other. I sense a lot of tension between them and that strikes me as townish behavior because I don't think scum would bus each other as hard as they are doing. Shady looks more townish than lvdr, because lvdr has made quite a few posts based on inaccuracies and he's backtracked on his words a few times. However lvdr has given acceptable town motivations for a lot of his posts so I'm gonna say that they are both town and they need to calm the fuck down.
Dandel lon barely avoided being lynched yesterday so I'm gonna focus on him right now. It's very suspicious that he almost got lynched and then a townie got lynched instead... so I'm going to read through the posts made during the last few hours of D1.
This quote is suspicious to me.
The second sentence implies that they're either both town or both scum, and their attacks on each other make them appear townish because scum wouldn't bus each other this hard. This is a false dichotomy, and I'm not sure why Thrawn would see their suspicions of each other as two parts of one whole. It's as if he's reduced the situation to: they're scum bussing each other, or they're both town suspecting each other. Why abandon the possibility of one of them actually being scum?
He then says that Shady looks more townish than Lvdr because of Lvdr's inconsistencies, but then says that Lvdr has given reasons for his actions which removes his suspicion. He gives no reasons for why Shady looks town, but says that he looks more townish because of Lvdr's previously suspicious behaviour. This ties back into his previous implication that they share an alignment, an implication that has no basis.
The entire first paragraph seems like a soft defense of Shady without actually providing any evidence of his towniness.
|
On August 27 2012 11:51 thrawn2112 wrote:
Your statements about why you didn't want to share reads on WeeTee make sense from a town-mkfuba perspective. But not being suspicious of anybody until someone asks you for a read is scummy behavior. Call it timid town play but to me it looked like you weren't scumhunting. You say you were consistent with your lvdr scumread. Everything you said about him was consistent, but your overall stance on him wasn't consistent because you completely abandoned your biggest case without telling us why he wasn't your top read until after the fact (just now.)
It's hard to see you as town if you're really just playing timidly... being timid and not sharing reads are scum traits.
My apologies for not explaining all of my reasoning at all times. Every time I do that I get called out for being a fluffy poster. If you'd like my reasoning on something that I haven't made explicit, feel free to ask. I'm quite accomodating.
|
I apologize for the lengtth of this post. It started as a response to thrawn, but developed into a full-blown case.
On August 27 2012 12:24 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2012 12:03 mkfuba07 wrote:On August 26 2012 17:32 thrawn2112 wrote:
Well it seems like shady and lvdr are incredibly pissed at each other. I sense a lot of tension between them and that strikes me as townish behavior because I don't think scum would bus each other as hard as they are doing. Shady looks more townish than lvdr, because lvdr has made quite a few posts based on inaccuracies and he's backtracked on his words a few times. However lvdr has given acceptable town motivations for a lot of his posts so I'm gonna say that they are both town and they need to calm the fuck down.
Dandel lon barely avoided being lynched yesterday so I'm gonna focus on him right now. It's very suspicious that he almost got lynched and then a townie got lynched instead... so I'm going to read through the posts made during the last few hours of D1.
This quote is suspicious to me. The second sentence implies that they're either both town or both scum, and their attacks on each other make them appear townish because scum wouldn't bus each other this hard. This is a false dichotomy, and I'm not sure why Thrawn would see their suspicions of each other as two parts of one whole. It's as if he's reduced the situation to: they're scum bussing each other, or they're both town suspecting each other. Why abandon the possibility of one of them actually being scum? He then says that Shady looks more townish than Lvdr because of Lvdr's inconsistencies, but then says that Lvdr has given reasons for his actions which removes his suspicion. He gives no reasons for why Shady looks town, but says that he looks more townish because of Lvdr's previously suspicious behaviour. This ties back into his previous implication that they share an alignment, an implication that has no basis. The entire first paragraph seems like a soft defense of Shady without actually providing any evidence of his towniness. You say I gave no reasons for shady being town but as kush pointed out my read on shady has been town all game. My last read on shady is here. As for not pointing out that only one could be scum.. I didn't think that was the case because I thought they were both town.
And my response to that is that without already thinking that they're both town, the entire post falls apart.
Now for my case against Shady Sands, though it does start with me responding to thrawn's earlier defense of Shady:
On August 26 2012 23:01 thrawn2112 wrote:
I'm gonna stick with my town read on shady. In the cases against him (mostly spag's) he is mainly accused of picking apart statements to try and throw suspicion around. He does indeed nitpick a lot, but the only times when the nitpicks seemed like they could have been scum motivated were at the beginning of the game when there wasn't anything to talk about except lurker policy. As I read through his filter his questions became more and more indicative of somebody who is scumhunting rather than someone who is trying to generate pointless suspicion. Makes sense.... the level of controversy slowly builds as the game progresses so constant aggressive questioning will look scummy at first when there is no controversy.
Regarding this part of your previous read, I disagree with it. I'll give you your acceptance of his meta as a town-tell, though I'm keeping it as a null tell because if I don't think the play is helping then I'm not going to say it's pro-town. I am going to go through his filter again to decide whether I think he's properly scumhunting, but since the last time I truly read through his filter I just saw him acting like himself, and that play made me vote for him in XXIV.
He did change his votes around during the last half of D1 but his overall motives were consistent and transparent. For example, he agreed with my case against WeeTee and said he would consider WeeTee as a 2nd candidate before most other people had done so. He was one of the first to commit to that (backup WeeTee plan) and he followed through on it. He has maintained his other suspicions (against kush and lvdr) very consistently while continuing to scumhunt.
As for being the one of the first to commit to a vote switch to WeeTee, he may have been the first to mention it, but he put the choice into my hands.
If Mkfuba doesn't vote WeeTee nobody gets lynched. And shouldn't WeeTee be in this thread?
Okay. Mkfuba, you hold the hammer. I don't get how you can view WeeTee's actual vote and KushM4sta-level anti-town play as being less worth a vote than Dandel's "active lurking."
Furthermore, if Dandel is as experienced as people suggest, it is better to have him around than a terrible poster who won't contribute to scumhunt.
Unless your read on Dandel is 100% scum, you should be voting WeeTee.
It's impossible to have a 100% scum read on ANYONE D1. Telling me to switch to someone I found less suspicious because I don't have a 100% scum read on the other on D1 is so suspicious I don't know why I didn't question it earlier, but I do know that the entire time I was sitting there deciding on what to do, I was being constantly pressured to make the first move in the transfer to WeeTee. It wasn't until I said that I would do it that he actually switched his vote.
On top of that, his appeal for me to to vote for WeeTee over Dandel lon because of his post quality is scummy. That shouldn't ever be a factor in the decision to lynch someone unless there is somehow not a single scummy candidate. Shady should know that.
I agree that consistency is typically a town-tell, but a good player knows that. If anything, Shady's playstyle makes it easier to be consistent as scum because scum know that all of their cases must be embellished or contrived, and his manner of playing zeroes in on the tiniest flaws.
His case on kush is an example of this. I see almost a 0% chance of a player of kush's apparently skill level fake claiming JK. It's so much more likely (I'm tempted to say infinitely more likely) that kush is a noob who roleclaimed when he was threatened, as many people do when they play live mafia. But Shady uses it as direct evidence to drive us to vote for him. Here is his original post. All of kush's posts until Shady's were incredibly bad. They do nothing but cast suspicion on himself while making crappy cases against others without evidence. Would a scum kush, after all of that crappiness, actually consider bussing himself to get a blue role to claim? Absolutely not. Add to that the fact that the only other support for a kush lynch was a player (who did not flip JK) who played so poorly we decided to lynch him. I see three possibilities here:
1. Shady is actually JK and that explains his powerful suspicions of kush
2. There is not a JK, so no one else is voting to support Shady's kush lynch
3. Shady tried to push a lynch on kush because he was an easy target and didn't gather enough support
I find the likelihood of these cases to be 3>1>2. I think #3 has been covered above. #1 I would accept as a valid reason, but I don't think that kush would have fakeclaimed so I don't think it's likely. #2 I don't see as a possibility because I believe kush's RB claim. Even if I didn't, in that case I would have to assume that there isn't a roleblocker in the game since no one else has claimed to have been roleblocked. I don't see this as probable because two of the three possible power roles are capable of role blocking and I doubt that neither of them made it into the game.
These posts also lend credence to Shady playing in a way that I don't think are town-motivated but can still be seen as consistent with Shady's meta: post 1, post 2
Because of the way he's played in the past, going by a meta read will simply show him as being consistent, aggressive, and stubborn. But I believe that he never had a very strong case, and he can't back off now because kush hasn't shown enough improvement to change his read. I think this consistancy aspect of my case mostly comes down to peoples' personal reads on the kush situation. I believe scum Shady has little trouble being consistent, because his meta allows him to latch onto someone and never let go for little reason. Scum have to find evidence where there shouldn't be any, and I believe he's taken the bait with kush.
##vote Shady Sands
|
I'd like to add that if Dandel flips red then we have at least one confirmed townie, possibly more. At the very least Lvdr would be confirmed to me.
If anyone has time and feels like there's nothing to talk about until the flip, take a look at my case against shady and let me know what you agree with, disagree with, if you think I'm making huge leaps, if you think it's good, bad, confusing, poorly worded, contrived, etc. The only ones that responded to it were kush and spag responding to kush. If there's something wrong with the way I present cases, I'd like to know that too so that I can do better in the future.
|
Also, I have class until 40 minutes before the vote deadline, but I should be at a computer by that time.
|
I'm getting kicked out of my lab now, but I'm going to switch my vote so that, like Alsn, there can't be any last minute vote-switching shenanigans to cause a no-lynch.
##unvote
##vote Dandel lon
Gonna try to find another comp lab, but I might not be able to :<
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
