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Sorry marv, I went out for the afternoon.
If deadline was coming up in 10 minutes and I had to vote *NOW*, I would probably vote prplhz. He just hasn't shown much interest in the game so far.
However, I'm a bit intrigued by Custos.
On August 09 2012 00:26 Custos Luna wrote:
Also: Last night when I said ShiaoPi was triggering my scumdar, I meant Scib. Combination of tired brain + new names for me. This was just preliminary thinking before sleep. All opinions subject to change.
Since then, you haven't mentioned what actually triggered your scumdar on scib. In fact, you went on to quote a post where you agreed and added more information to his case DYH. Unless your opinion did, in fact, change without you mentioning it, then I don't see why you would go out of your way to reinforce the case of someone you think is scum.
also marv, I still don't understand your reasoning for forcing the discussion about Forumite when you think Custos is scum. You said you didn't need to perpetuate the case, but were you just planning to leave your vote on him and hope people hopped on at some point based on your meta case? It just doesn't make any sense to me at all.
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My opinions on the main lynch candidates:
-- Forumite --
I already said this, but his d1 play has been extraordinarily wishy-washy and boggling. I still can't believe that the general consensus is that him changing his mind solely because the "vets" pressured him wasn't particularly scummy. However, I've found that its much rarer that the scummiest day 1 candidate is actually scum. I would consolidate on to him in the morning if that's the consensus, but I think there's just as much chance of him being bad town as bad scum.
-- Mordanis --
His play fits the way he played as town in NMM XXII so far. However, his lack of scumhunting is kind of bothering me, because even despite the verbosity and the absurb "discussion" case to start the game, he still had a reasonable case (or two?) before day 1 deadline. He did end up having good reads in that game though, once you waded through all the verbosity, so hopefully he gets some cases out soon.
-- prplhz --
I really don't know what to think. He has lurked and hasn't contributed much at all. The 1 liners, and jumping on the most popular case once he did contribute doesn't help his standing in my eyes, and fits with his Normal Mini II scum play. For now, he gets my vote.
##vote prplhz
I'll be around for a couple of hours for discussion though.
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@scib: the "case" against me wasn't intended to be convincing, I think. Hence I brushed it off with a few words. His case against Shady did have merit, but only because if a misunderstanding that was cleared up later.
Without talking too much about a game that is still going, his post-day1 cases were pretty solid in general though, imo.
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@scib: Ah, I get what you're saying. I just want to make sure you aren't discrediting his reads outright.
And marv's stances this game are really weird to me :o
Anyways, I think I'm going to head to bed so I can be up an hour or two before the deadline. G'nite.
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On August 09 2012 23:23 Custos Luna wrote:
Forumite, it's the 11th hour and your neck is in the noose. Are you planning on just letting yourself hang? If you are town and there is anything that needs to be said, now is the time to do it. If you flip scum, well then good on town for not faltering.
@Mord: The difference between you and I is that I established my case early and have backed it up and stuck to it. Your vote on marvel is fairly baseless and further shows your lack of commitment to anything in this game.
No. Your vote is useless too, and you should vote on a real candidate.
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Welp, I guess that's that. I'm going back to bed.
Custos, don't pull any funny business.
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We're coming for you, scum!
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/CUPrO.jpg)
So here are the people I'm most interested in today (in no particular order):
risk.nuke
1)Did nothing on day 1 except talk about policy and setup until his vote on prplhz.
2)He didn't have a single mention of any scumhunting in his filter besides 2 one-liners about prplhz: calling him out for lurking, and voting him.
3)Made no mention whatsoever of the Forumite or Mordanis cases, but after the night flip he says "Forumite. Don't beat yourself up because some scrubs can't tell cowboy play from scum play. Sit your pretty self down and watch me catch the gobbo bastards.". Why weren't you there defending him pre-flip if you were so sure he was a "cowbow"?
4) Just being off the Forumite vote makes me more weary of him.
prplhz
Nothing really new to add here. I still think he has a good chance of flipping scum. Lurking/uninterested, his one "contribution" was hopping on his counterwagon. Promise of more contributions, so lets see what happens today.
HiroPro
The timing and reasoning for his switch onto Forumite is suspicious.
+ Show Spoiler +On August 09 2012 05:32 HiroPro wrote:Let's kill prplhz. As town he may act overwhelmed at times but he certainly doesn't display the attitude or lack of interest that he does here. This is much more like his scum games ( Normal Mini II and Movie Star) where he acts annoyed and angry for no reason and does nothing. As for Forumite, I'll wait and see. The contradiction that sciberbia and slOosh talk about (wanting to pressure Shiao but at the same time withholding reasoning because ) is certainly present but he's brought a lot more attention onto himself actively than I would expect from a scum player and definitely looks interested in town affairs. We shouldn't lynch him today. ##Vote prplhz
Extremely strong stance: Lynch prplhz, don't lynch Forumite. But then:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 09 2012 20:23 HiroPro wrote:Show nested quote +
1) I grow weary of pointing out Forumite's blatant self-contradictions, but originally, after prplhz's first two posts, Forumite lists prplhz as a nulltell. Then suddenly, without any new posts from prplhz, Forumite wants to lynch prplhz or mord. And later, Forumite clarifies that prplhz actually did seem scummy from the first two posts alone. Blatant contradiction.
Hm this is a good point. into On August 09 2012 21:01 HiroPro wrote:
Alright, I'll vote for Forumite. I suppose prplhz could just be genuinely busy.
##Unvote
##Vote Forumite
You seemed really confident in your initial read, so I find it hard to believe that this weak reasoning was enough for you to do a complete 180 on yourself. The fact that is was just 5 minutes before prplhz came into the thread to defend himself is icing on the cake.
Also, I'm still extremely wary of marv. He made a case on CL then didn't want to talk about it anymore because "it didn't need to be furthered". What, were you just expecting people to hop on at some point for no more reasoning/discussion? Was it just a pressure vote? I really did't understand your reasoning, and got called out for "being on drugs" when I tried to get you to explain.
Secondly, the style of his questioning is just weird compared to other games of his when he is town. Take a look at his filter in I Can't Believe It's Not Themed ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351147&user=140487 for reference) and compare his poking and prodding to here. Its hard to put into words what exactly I find different, but his questioning this game feels...open ended? Like he doesn't have a clear goal in mind when he asks them. Nor did he seem very invested into who was actually lynched. Also he just feels less "bulldog"-y this game, but I'm not sure how much of that is because he's been busy.
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On August 11 2012 03:37 Custos Luna wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 03:29 Mordanis wrote:On August 11 2012 02:14 Custos Luna wrote:On August 11 2012 01:01 sciberbia wrote:
In conclusion, I think there is a reasonably good chance marv was killed because scum thought he was the watcher.
This is possible. However, I believe that the scum team is trying to incriminate me. They want to set me up for a lynch. They are using the fact that marvel placed a vote on me and they want town to think that marvel was killed because of it. If you notice in Hiro's last post (before day post), he posts claiming I'm scum: On August 11 2012 00:04 HiroPro wrote:
I have a RL issue to take care of, so this will be my last post.
I don't have the time to go through filters again but I'll summarize my thoughts.
sciberbia is town. His case on Forumite had a lot of effort and he's been consistently townie throughout this game.
Mordanis is probably town. His early case on ShiaoPi was not good at all and his posting style annoys me but I feel that he's legitametly sharing his thoughts and honestly I have a hard time believing that any scum team would let Mordanis post that ShiaoPi case.
Luna is scum. No experienced player would make a post like the one he just did as town. He makes a big assumption in calling prplhz scum and then uses that to justify everything else. This is especially strange since all of yesterday he was saying prplhz's alignment is unclear.
Shiao and Keirathi should be looked at very closely. Shiao pushed Mordanis for reasons that had nothing to do with him being scum and he seems very nervous and reluctant to call people scum (look at his night post on the Forumite voters). Keirathi is not sharing his ideas really at all. Marv is not playing the way that I'm used to seeing him as town, dunno about him. He and his scumbuddies have created a situation in which they can try to get me killed. Sweet WIFOM. I'll tell you what, I'll play along too. CL is scum and engineered the kill to make it look like people were out to get him so he'd have a couple of easy mislynches. Or perhaps CL knew that he'd be called out for WIFOM so he made himself seem paranoid in a good paranoid-townie way, and he's trying to buy town cred. Or perhaps WIFOM isn't a good way to play. What I presented wasn't even WIFOM. It's a scum plan that I recognize because I have done the exact same thing in the past and succeeded. I am not about to let it happen to me. I'm being logical, you're talking out your ass as you have done all game.
No. He's right, your post was literally the definition of WIFOM.
I'm not saying you aren't right, because I am suspicious of HiroPro too, but trying to outguess the scum, who aren't guessing to begin with, is what WIFOM is.
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On August 11 2012 13:18 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 13:51 Keirathi wrote:
-- Mordanis --
His play fits the way he played as town in NMM XXII so far. However, his lack of scumhunting is kind of bothering me, because even despite the verbosity and the absurb "discussion" case to start the game, he still had a reasonable case (or two?) before day 1 deadline. He did end up having good reads in that game though, once you waded through all the verbosity, so hopefully he gets some cases out soon.
What's your opinion on Mordanis in light of his marv case? Also Shiaopi in general.
His case on marv actually shared a lot of similarities to my personal problems with marv's play this game. However, I realized that it wasn't worth it to post a case on him that late in the day because it would literally lead to nothing. The day was 99.9% going to come down to Forumite vs prplhz, so I personally spent my time weighing the merits of each of those cases.
My problem with his case, though, was that he voted marv with a 100% throwaway vote. Marv wasn't going to get lynched, so what was the point?
On the other hand, I find it extremely unlikely that scum Mordanis, being a relative newbie, would want to pick a fight with marv if he knew marv was town.
Overall, I'm leaning slightly town on him still.
Regarding ShiaoPi, when I was making my list of suspects for my night post, I didn't find anything particularly overtly scummy. His case on Mord didn't make much sense to me because the things he called Mord out for (being overly verbose, and wishy-washy) is just how Mord is, no matter what his alignment is. It's like calling Chezinu out for trolling.
Overall, pretty thoroughly null, maybe leaning slightly on the red side. I wouldn't be interested in pushing him today as I feel there are much better candidates.
I'm really intrigued by DYH's case on Custos. Something about his late day1 play was bothering me, but I couldn't pinpoint exactly what it was. Sheeping someone that you believe is scum makes ZERO FUCKING SENSE.
He's moved up pretty high on my current scum list.
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EBWOP: Actually, until I hear a good explanation:
##Vote Custos Luna
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Activity this game is really low 
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@CL: You still didn't give a good reason for why you let someone that you thought was scum decide your vote. That's the real point here. If you believed Mord was scum, wouldn't his vote almost assuredly go onto a townie at that point if he was the deciding vote?
The way I look at it is that you put yourself into a position that no matter what choice Mord made, nor what alignment that choice flipped, you could pressure him because of it. "Yea, ofc Mord picked the townie when I forced him to choose. He's scum." or "Yep, Mord was bussing because I was pressuring him to make a choice and he couldn't make the obvious wrong one. He's scum." Hell, you even said as much in your night post:
On August 10 2012 23:08 Custos Luna wrote:
He could bus prplhz to look more townie, but since he was forced to make the decision, it was not truly his own, and he would still be scummy in my eyes. It would also leave his team with 2 members after D1, a situation no scum team wants to be in.
For his own safety, and the greatest benefit for his team, Mordanis was forced to vote Forumite. He ended up placing his vote because if there was a double lynch, it would have left his team at a disadvantage anyway.
You backed Mord up against a wall that you planned to use to get him lynched.
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On August 12 2012 05:30 slOosh wrote:
To everyone who is dismissing Mordanis' suspicious play solely because his posting looks like that regardless of his alignment, how are we going to catch him as scum?
...
To everyone who defended Mordanis on meta, could you please re-clarify how he is town?
Every scum will make mistakes that you can pick up on. My whole point with defending his "meta" was that voting him for having fluffy posts is like voting Chezinu for trolling. He's going to do that as either alignment, so you're just as likely to hit a townie as you are scum. That was my main problem with the Mordanis case day 1.
I originally gave Mord some townie points for making a case on marv. I find it hard to believe that any relative newbie would intentionally pick a fight with marv on day 1 as scum. However, the fact that it was at the end of the day, and that it is possibility that the marv NK was already planned so he didn't have to be extremely threatened about a big vote swing onto him at the end of the day kind of drags him back down to null. Nothing he's said has stuck out as particularly scummy in and of itself though. There is very little chance that I would vote him today over CL/prpl/risk.
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On August 12 2012 08:18 sciberbia wrote:
@Keirathi
Is there any reason you didn't include HiroPro on this list, or are you still suspicious of HiroPro? I ask because I'm very interested in a possible HiroPro lynch today.
Mostly because in my thorough read-through of filters during the night phase, I started thinking that there's a much higher chance of Hiro being scum if prplhz is. If prplhz is scum, then the few actual things that Hiro did on d1 point towards him being scum as well. But why would scum Hiro feel the need to change his vote from prplhz to Forumite when town was basically evenly split?
Not that its impossible for Hiro to be scum without prpl, but it makes much more sense to me to lynch prplhz first.
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@Scib: I think the ideal lynch target today is prplhz. As much as I was completely wtf boggled at CL, you were right, it really doesn't make a lot of sense for him as scum to call that kind of attention to himself.
I disagree with some of your other points in your defense of him (ie the "correct read on forumite" - of course scum would know he was town and could soft defend him as well...and the DYH case is a complete null-tell...scum make cases that they don't push quite frequently in my experience), but overall I think I feel less confident in a lynch on Cl than I do prplhz.
##Unvote
##Vote: prplhz
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That being said, I think risk.nuke has a great chance of flipping scum as well, but I don't think his lynch gives us as much information as a prplhz one.
I would say that I feel almost equally confident that either (or both) will flip scum, but I would lynch prpl because his flip gives information that risk's doesn't.
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On August 12 2012 11:00 Bluelightz wrote:
Unfortunately I can only post the flip later as I'm not on my laptop
You still have 13 hours!
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EPT
