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On August 09 2012 13:33 sciberbia wrote:
@CL
Wait what? Will you be back by the deadline or not? If not, I ask that you consolidate onto Forumite, because you said he is scummy, and he stands a good chance of being lynched today, unlike Mordanis.
Also, how likely do you think prplhz is to be scum?
I'll be back in the morning before deadline. I will reevaluate after I sleep.
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Ok, my morning evaluation:
prplhz: I do not feel that the prplhz wagon has that much merit. He had a few poor posts early, but in the whole, he has responded fairly well to the case against him. He has defended himself logically and presented a counter argument against Forumite.
In my experience, the D1 lurker lynch is almost always inaccurate. The prplhz wagon started because it was easy. The easy way isn't always the right way. I'm glad people are starting to reconsider the vote on prpl for this reason. That's not to say I think he's town, I just think he is less likely to be scum than others at this point.
Forumite: I can see a scenario with Forumite flipping scum. He has been flip floppy all game, and people have pointed out his contradictions. However, he's still not the scummiest in my eyes.
Mordanis: Am I really the only one who sees the COMPLETELY blatant lack of commitment from Mord all game?
-First Half D1: Very fluffy posts with the promise to start scumhunting.
-Second Half D1: Still more fluff. Makes a long post and FoSs shipoopi (still no commitment). He does not cast a vote until very late D1 (sleepy time in my time zone). His vote is on marvel. I would normally have no issue with this if it were at a reasonable time. However, this is crunch time. A lynch on marvel isn't on the table at this point. He makes a case and commitment on something that more than likely will not happen.
Mord's posts are long and filled with nothing. He talks a lot but doesn't say anything. His posts are difficult to follow, and a lack of transparency hurts town. He avoids commitment to a case as much as he can.
[b]I'm sticking with my gut on this one. Mordanis is scum
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EBWOP:
I'm sticking with my gut on this one. Mordanis is scum.
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Forumite, it's the 11th hour and your neck is in the noose. Are you planning on just letting yourself hang? If you are town and there is anything that needs to be said, now is the time to do it. If you flip scum, well then good on town for not faltering.
@Mord: The difference between you and I is that I established my case early and have backed it up and stuck to it. Your vote on marvel is fairly baseless and further shows your lack of commitment to anything in this game.
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EBWOP: DYH, looking back, that does appear to be fairly accurate. I had thought more people unvoted off prplhz and onto Forumite.
If it is necessary, I will switch my vote from Mord to Forumite to avoid the double lynch depending on what is said in the next half hour. However, Mord, you need to decide. Forumite or prplhz. Make your choice. Do so before I am required to or the wrath of the moon will fall upon you.
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On August 09 2012 23:25 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 23:23 Custos Luna wrote:
Forumite, it's the 11th hour and your neck is in the noose. Are you planning on just letting yourself hang? If you are town and there is anything that needs to be said, now is the time to do it. If you flip scum, well then good on town for not faltering.
@Mord: The difference between you and I is that I established my case early and have backed it up and stuck to it. Your vote on marvel is fairly baseless and further shows your lack of commitment to anything in this game. No. Your vote is useless too, and you should vote on a real candidate.
Trying to decide the best course of action. You're right, I want to get my vote on a real candidate. Scenarios running through my head:
-I vote Forumite: Mord can force the double lynch. If both Forumite and prplhz are town, this puts us at 6v3 for tomorrow, something I'd really like to avoid.
-I wait for Mord to vote for a real candidate: causes him to choose and I can avoid the double lynch.
If one of prpl and Forumite are scum, the double lynch benefits us. However, I'm still not entirely convinced and I'm trying to figure out how to give us the best chance into this lynch.
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On August 09 2012 23:49 Keirathi wrote:
Welp, I guess that's that. I'm going back to bed.
Custos, don't pull any funny business.
I would never!
Still unsure on Forumite. But I'm less sure on prpl, and I want to pad some security against a last minute swap/double lynch.
Therefore:
##unvote Mordanis
##vote Forumite
The moon is shocked that Mord has actually committed to something.
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On August 09 2012 23:56 sciberbia wrote:
we are lynching forumite by 1 vote? wow
2 votes now
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Yeah, not that surprised. Love it when townies just roll over and die.
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On August 10 2012 01:07 risk.nuke wrote:
Forumite. Don't beat yourself up because some scrubs can't tell cowboy play from scum play. Sit your pretty self down and watch me catch the gobbo bastards.
Yes, because you werea bastion of helpfulness D1. The goblins falling down at your feet already.
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Well why don't you ask your scumbuddies? I'm sure they would love to have a conversation on what to do tonight.
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Alright guys. Posting this now so that it can be followed upon should I be killed tonight.
I can completely see a situation in which the scum team is as follows: Mordanis, prplhz, HiroPro
I am making the assumption, for the sake of argument, that prplhz is scum. This is because he has the least content to go off of. However, it all plays out rather nicely.
Since you've all heard my original case on Mordanis, I will start with HiroPro. Hiro's D1 posts were pretty useless. His entire filter is mostly 1 to 2 liners. He jumps on the prplhz wagon. He wants to distance himself from his scumbuddy. However, this wagon actually started to gain some momentum, and as you can see in this post about halfway through D1:
On August 09 2012 14:15 Blazinghand wrote:
Vote Count
prplhz (5): DoYouHas, Marvellosity, HiroPro, Forumite, Keirathi
Forumite (3): Sciberbia, slOosh, prplhz
Mordanis (2): ShiaoPi, Custos Luna
prplhz is currently set to be lynched.
The deadline is in ~9.75 hours at Thursday, Aug 09 3:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00). The person with the most votes at the end of the day will be lynched.
prplhz was set to be lynched. If you then look at this post by DYH:
On August 09 2012 23:23 DoYouHas wrote:
I believe this is the current votecount(If it is not please post an official one Blue or BH):
prplhz(5): DYH, Marvel, Forumite, Keirathi, risk.nuke
Forumite(5): Scib, slOosh, prplhz, Hiropro, Shiaopi
Mordanis(1): CL
Marvel(1): Mordanis
Unless people's opinions have completely changed since the beginning of today, we are about to do exactly what none of us wanted, a day 1 double lynch. This is actually the ideal scenario because they both have their votes tied up on each other, but that is beside the point. It is not ok to risk being at 6-3 at the start of day 2 based on just the limited information of today. That is why you need to switch Mord, we ARE in a double lynch scenario, and it actually has potential of going through.
You'll notice that HiroPro is the ONLY one who switched from prplhz to Forumite. You'll notice that both of his votes were 3rd/4th in chronological order, which is a classic scum position (one that has gotten me caught as scum in the past). It is late enough so he doesn't get blame for starting the votes, but also not so late that he gets the credit for getting the lynch to pass. His voting position shows the dilemma he was in. His scumbuddy was set to be lynched, so he needed to get momentum onto the other popular candidate, Forumite.
Now, for Mordanis. My case still stands, and I am now going to expand upon it. He was screwed over by his own lack of commitment D1. He did his best to distance himself from everything. However, at EOD1, he was forced to make a decision on the lynch. I was NOT going to let a double lynch go through, and I made that very clear. He could bus prplhz to look more townie, but since he was forced to make the decision, it was not truly his own, and he would still be scummy in my eyes. It would also leave his team with 2 members after D1, a situation no scum team wants to be in.
For his own safety, and the greatest benefit for his team, Mordanis was forced to vote Forumite. He ended up placing his vote because if there was a double lynch, it would have left his team at a disadvantage anyway.
Now, this argument isn't as strong if prplhz isn't scum. But I am fairly comfortable with a prplhz lynch D2 at this point.
I may have overlooked things, but these are my thoughts, and I'm very open to discussion and flexibility should I live through the night. May the moon protect me.
(This is my last post before deadline, hopefully I won't be back too long afterwards.)
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On August 11 2012 01:01 sciberbia wrote:
In conclusion, I think there is a reasonably good chance marv was killed because scum thought he was the watcher.
This is possible. However, I believe that the scum team is trying to incriminate me. They want to set me up for a lynch. They are using the fact that marvel placed a vote on me and they want town to think that marvel was killed because of it.
If you notice in Hiro's last post (before day post), he posts claiming I'm scum:
On August 11 2012 00:04 HiroPro wrote:
I have a RL issue to take care of, so this will be my last post.
I don't have the time to go through filters again but I'll summarize my thoughts.
sciberbia is town. His case on Forumite had a lot of effort and he's been consistently townie throughout this game.
Mordanis is probably town. His early case on ShiaoPi was not good at all and his posting style annoys me but I feel that he's legitametly sharing his thoughts and honestly I have a hard time believing that any scum team would let Mordanis post that ShiaoPi case.
Luna is scum. No experienced player would make a post like the one he just did as town. He makes a big assumption in calling prplhz scum and then uses that to justify everything else. This is especially strange since all of yesterday he was saying prplhz's alignment is unclear.
Shiao and Keirathi should be looked at very closely. Shiao pushed Mordanis for reasons that had nothing to do with him being scum and he seems very nervous and reluctant to call people scum (look at his night post on the Forumite voters). Keirathi is not sharing his ideas really at all. Marv is not playing the way that I'm used to seeing him as town, dunno about him.
He and his scumbuddies have created a situation in which they can try to get me killed.
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On August 11 2012 03:29 Mordanis wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 02:14 Custos Luna wrote:On August 11 2012 01:01 sciberbia wrote:
In conclusion, I think there is a reasonably good chance marv was killed because scum thought he was the watcher.
This is possible. However, I believe that the scum team is trying to incriminate me. They want to set me up for a lynch. They are using the fact that marvel placed a vote on me and they want town to think that marvel was killed because of it. If you notice in Hiro's last post (before day post), he posts claiming I'm scum: On August 11 2012 00:04 HiroPro wrote:
I have a RL issue to take care of, so this will be my last post.
I don't have the time to go through filters again but I'll summarize my thoughts.
sciberbia is town. His case on Forumite had a lot of effort and he's been consistently townie throughout this game.
Mordanis is probably town. His early case on ShiaoPi was not good at all and his posting style annoys me but I feel that he's legitametly sharing his thoughts and honestly I have a hard time believing that any scum team would let Mordanis post that ShiaoPi case.
Luna is scum. No experienced player would make a post like the one he just did as town. He makes a big assumption in calling prplhz scum and then uses that to justify everything else. This is especially strange since all of yesterday he was saying prplhz's alignment is unclear.
Shiao and Keirathi should be looked at very closely. Shiao pushed Mordanis for reasons that had nothing to do with him being scum and he seems very nervous and reluctant to call people scum (look at his night post on the Forumite voters). Keirathi is not sharing his ideas really at all. Marv is not playing the way that I'm used to seeing him as town, dunno about him. He and his scumbuddies have created a situation in which they can try to get me killed. Sweet WIFOM. I'll tell you what, I'll play along too. CL is scum and engineered the kill to make it look like people were out to get him so he'd have a couple of easy mislynches. Or perhaps CL knew that he'd be called out for WIFOM so he made himself seem paranoid in a good paranoid-townie way, and he's trying to buy town cred. Or perhaps WIFOM isn't a good way to play.
What I presented wasn't even WIFOM. It's a scum plan that I recognize because I have done the exact same thing in the past and succeeded. I am not about to let it happen to me. I'm being logical, you're talking out your ass as you have done all game.
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Ok, I suppose, since I'm looking at it from a different way, I'm not seeing it as WIFOM.
Regardless, I want to nip it in the butt before it starts.
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I didn't say "don't kill me because marvel died". I'm laying out what I see. I'm stating the situation and I want everyone to look at the sequence of events. I'm not against reading into the NK in any situation. I'm advocating that everyone read into the situation as a whole.
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Aww, you really are quite adorable Mord.
I am going to preface this post with the fact that I have been completely and utterly transparent with town this entire game. Because of this, nothing that I'm saying will be new, but purely reiteration. It seems, though, that Mord needs a refresher. Understandable though, as it's hard to keep track of the thread as well as the mafia QT at the same time.
Before the EOD1, prplhz and Forumite were tied. I told you to make a commitment, and you chose Forumite. Regardless of who you chose, I was going to go the same way as you. I was NOT going to let a double lynch happen. If you did not end up switching your vote, I was going to vote Forumite to avoid the double lynch. I was not convinced on either case, but since prplhz had less to go on, Forumite would have been the choice.
On August 11 2012 08:12 Mordanis wrote:Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 23:27 Custos Luna wrote:
EBWOP: DYH, looking back, that does appear to be fairly accurate. I had thought more people unvoted off prplhz and onto Forumite.
If it is necessary, I will switch my vote from Mord to Forumite to avoid the double lynch depending on what is said in the next half hour. However, Mord, you need to decide. Forumite or prplhz. Make your choice. Do so before I am required to or the wrath of the moon will fall upon you. EBWOP: I think this makes it clear that CL wouldn't have voted for prplhz, so by DYH's logic CL should also be under scrutiny.
By all means, scrutinize away.
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On August 11 2012 08:07 DoYouHas wrote:
CL, I don't like that you have brought out a connection case this early in the game. My experiences with connection cases is that they are rarely accurate when presented on day3 and you posted this at the end of N1. I also don't like your WIFOM. You, risk, and scib have all posted possible reasons marv was hit, and they are all equally possible. Speculating on night hits is pointless without corroborating evidence.
However, I do agree some of your points and who you are suspicious of.
The fact that it took vote switching instead of a clear majority to lynch Forumite increases the chance that prplhz is scum and that his scumbuddies manipulated the vote. That would make Hiro, Shiao, and Mord the suspicious parties day1. This is convienent as those are the people I have been most suspicious of after prplhz already.
I'm going to withold my vote for now. I need to do some more filter digging and put together an actual case before I commit to pushing someone.
Yes, I understand a connection case this early is very unprecedented. I already said it may not be fully accurate and that I'm very open to discussion about it. It does bring a nice bowl of scummy activity for town to observe though.
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On August 11 2012 08:39 prplhz wrote:
Hunting scum on the premise that I'm scum is bad scum hunting (and it's also bad because I'm not scum and you're not going to find anything from this premise).
Not hunting scum at all is bad scum hunting. Would love for you to actually do something
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EPT
