EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXIII - Page 6
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Lvdr
United States418 Posts
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Lvdr
United States418 Posts
Hapa has put an enormous amount of pressure on Shady, but in a way I find potentially suspicious. As long as prome flips red, it's extremely unlikely hapa is mafia -- but it is a possibility that could come into play in later days if the third mafia proves difficult to find. Alternatively, if prome flips green Hapa would not be immediately suspicious (there is no way for town prome to actually know hapa is busing) but again could be a good target if the mafia turn out to be difficult to find. All that being said: here is my case (stated from Hapa IS mafia POV) Hapa buses GK as inactive leader. He is able to 'miraculously' pick out the godfather because he knows who the godfather is. NK: Killing an unconfirmed townie maintains Hapa's voting block of confirmed townies. Hapa's case against Shady: In his first post accusing Shady, he claims The answer is ShadySands. He's the only guy without serious suspicion on him. This is simply incorrect. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=46#907 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=46#914 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=47#926 Me and Mkfuba both point suspicion at Shady. Next Hapa declares an intent to tunnel Shady no matter what happens with Prome Why else would Promethelax make such a big deal about including ShadySands in his suspicion list? Secondly, I believe there's a good case to be made against ShadySands even if Promethelax doesn't flip red. This seems to show mafia mentality because it completely ignores how surprising it would be for prome to flip green, and that town's previous assumptions would have to be challenged. It would also be convenient for Hapa-as-scum to continue his mislynch gravy train. The point at which I would likely want to lynch Hapa would be if there is if prome AND Shady flip green Next, Hapa demands Shady give him a better target from the Confirmed Townies: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=49#964 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=49#966 I think this is the biggest tell for Hapa. Shady defends himself very well here and I completely agree Please explain to me how me coming in with a random accusation on someone with a lot of towncred qualifies as scumhunting. Hint: it's not. Pressuring me this way only makes it more, not less, likely that whatever case I come up with is hasty and half-baked, and less usable as a result. Shady puts forward the possibility that one of the confirmed townies is actually mafia. This is possible, but if true it would be impossible to pinpoint who the mafia is because, well, confirmed town are confirmed. Hapa responds to this by applying even more pressure without considering infiltration AT ALL. For as skilled of a player as Hapa, this shows 'lynch-train' thinking instead of considering all posibilities. Hapa basicly admits here that no matter who Shady makes a case for it will be implausible. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=49#969 To me, town Hapa would take this as a warning to slow down and not tunnel so hard. Next, Hapa's case. I still support lynching shady before Hapa, so I will focus on parts I think would make Hapa mafia in the future. Given a Shady green-flip (red flip I think game is over) Overall the case feels contrived and still has no doubt regarding the situation of a prome green flip. Shady does Jack Shit Day 1 Huh what? He ignores my bolded point and focuses on the least important part of my logic! In addition, Shady Sands is the only force against the GK lynch, and does so in a way that twists my wording and logic. These are reasonable suspicions, but don't seem to be the basis of a slam-dunk case that would be correct even if prome flips green. Summary: My top scum is still PROME. 2nd scum is Shady. However, if both flip green I think this case against hapa will have some traction and be worth considering, based on intense tunneling by Hapa. | ||
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Lvdr
United States418 Posts
Other than wild, several days in advance cases, there doesn't seem to be much to do until prome gets lynched. | ||
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Lvdr
United States418 Posts
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Lvdr
United States418 Posts
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Lvdr
United States418 Posts
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Lvdr
United States418 Posts
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Lvdr
United States418 Posts
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Lvdr
United States418 Posts
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Lvdr
United States418 Posts
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Lvdr
United States418 Posts
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Lvdr
United States418 Posts
High five!! | ||
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Lvdr
United States418 Posts
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Lvdr
United States418 Posts
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Lvdr
United States418 Posts
I leave you with this thought from Jay-Z: If you feelin' like a pimp *****, go and brush your shoulders off Ladies is pimps too, go and brush your shoulders off *****z is crazy baby, don't forget that boy told you Get, that, dirt off your shoulder | ||
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