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On July 18 2012 09:44 Risen wrote:
Yup I've been focusing on not being shot, but with mason claim (provided it isn't you or s&b) we pretty much have this game in the bag. Not sure how that makes you unvote gonzaw, though, unless you think the scum team is s&b and I, in which case that's quite the about face. Regardless, I think you have to lynch gonzaw or me today. I'll flip cop and then you lynch gonzaw or you lynch gonzaw and he flips either town or scum, if scum I die at night b/c scum can't afford me checking around and if town it's pretty WIFOM on whether scum lets me live another night so I get lynched the next night.
That's the thing. I think no matter what, you don't die tonight since you don't actually have an investigation on gonzaw. It would make more sense to kill the 100% confirmed townie in the mason and say you were bussing gonzaw in exchange for clearing yourself.
I'm not really sure what the best course of action is though, since we have 2 mislynches available barring any JK saves.
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Maybe lynching you and confirming you as cop is our best course of action, then we have 3 guaranteed townies (when the other Mason claims).
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On July 18 2012 11:04 gonzaw wrote:
Risen stop fooling around.
Did you check me or not? You claimed cop with check on S&B on N1, and what check on N2?
s0lstice was what was implied.
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The more I think about it, the more I'm leaning towards a Risen lynch today.
With Risen alive, none of his information amounts to a hill of beans, because we can't trust it. The timing is odd. the investigations were odd, and there's no scum result to test with. Plus, since Milton claimed he was RB'd, then I feel like Risen would be RB'd every night and never killed even if he is cop, because the longer he lives, the most suspicious he seems.
However, if we lynch him and confirm cop, then s0lstice and s&b are 100% clear for the rest of the game, along with the Mason, and we're at 6v2 with 3 confirmed going into the night. If he fake claimed, then we're down to 7v1 with 1 confirmed.
Therefore, I think the best thing we can do today to get a town win is probably a Risen lynch.
Anyone else have any thoughts?
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On July 18 2012 13:27 Risen wrote:
Why are you neglecting the possibility of strongandbig/s0Lstice being the mason. I'd like to think that the mason isn't one of those two so we have 4 confirmed townies but I now believe one of those two is the mason b/c I haven't seen a mason claim yet. This means only 3 confirmed townies which is still good, but I can wish it was 4.
I'm not negating the possibility, but 1) s0lstice was here so I'm not sure why he wouldn't have claimed already, and 2) I feel pretty certain that the Mason is sciberbia because of how hard he defended austin when austin started getting pressured d1.
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If you had a scum investigation, I would be all for not lynching you. With just townie investigations, how can we trust them unless you die?
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On July 18 2012 13:48 Risen wrote:
Also waiting for anyone to respond to my thinking on milton. That being roleblocked claim makes no sense...
Do VTs get a message saying they were roleblocked? I've never been RB'd as a VT, so I wouldn't know, but I don't see a reason why they would since they don't have a role.
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On July 18 2012 13:52 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 13:50 Keirathi wrote:On July 18 2012 13:48 Risen wrote:
Also waiting for anyone to respond to my thinking on milton. That being roleblocked claim makes no sense... Do VTs get a message saying they were roleblocked? I've never been RB'd as a VT, so I wouldn't know, but I don't see a reason why they would since they don't have a role. From the OP "All roleblocks will result in the target being notified."
Ah, that's weird. Although I guess it makes some sense, its just not a rule I've ever played with that I can remember.
I specifically asked if anyone was RB'd n1 though, and no one said they were, so :o
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@Risen: read through what I said with the assumption that I am a townie once. Can you see how it makes sense?
The longer you stay alive, the more worthless your investigations are.
Good god, lynch me if you have to. Then lynch Risen tomorrow, because theres no way the mafia will kill him, then we can at least have 1 confirmed townie left in the LYLO day.
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EBWOP: What I mean is, even if mafia NK your targets, that doesn't prove that you're cop, only that they are town, which they already know.
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Basically my stance comes down to this:
There are 2 options:
1) Risen is actually cop.
How do we confirm that he's cop, when he doesn't have a scum read? If he had a scum read, we could lynch the read because we still have 2 mislynches to play with to test his claim. The only way to confirm his claim, and therefore investigations, is if he dies. But what motivation does mafia have to kill him, especially if they have a roleblocker (which we don't know, but Milton claimed, which I admit is suspicious).
2) Risen is fake claiming.
How do we confirm? When he dies, which obviously won't happen at night.
Even if we lynch gonzaw and he flips scum (which seems likely considering his outburst after the cop claim), that doesn't PROVE that Risen is cop, since Risen doesn't have a scum investigation on him. A fake claim into bussing a teamate isn't completely out of the realm of possibility. Literally the only way for your investigations to mean *ANYTHING* is if you die, which makes me question why you even decided to claim in the first place.
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I'm not really sure what to think.
I think ideally, I would like every single person to tell me that they weren't RB'd n1. If everyone says they weren't RB'd n1, then Milton getting RB'd is extremely, extremely suspicious and basically just told us he was scum.
I feel like maybe someone was RB'd though and just didn't know if they should claim it or not.
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On July 18 2012 14:55 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 14:46 Keirathi wrote:
I'm not really sure what to think.
I think ideally, I would like every single person to tell me that they weren't RB'd n1. If everyone says they weren't RB'd n1, then Milton getting RB'd is extremely, extremely suspicious and basically just told us he was scum.
I feel like maybe someone was RB'd though and just didn't know if they should claim it or not. Who would think that? Why would someone be silent on that? That makes no sense...
I dunno. In my last newbie game, I got RB'd as cop on night 3 (which was when I replaced in), but no one else had claimed being RB'd the entire game when I did. Which was why I asked the question about VT's getting RB messages.
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Also I have a hard time believing scum Milton would say he was RB'd when no one said they were night1. It's obviously going to put suspicion on him, so why would he do it?
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I'm just saying that as an argument towards there being someone roleblocked n1 without claiming it. I'm saying I think its more likely that someone was RB'd and didn't claim than a scum player outing himself with something like that. As far as I'm aware, scum generally doesn't make claims without having a reason for it, and I can really see no reason to claim that he was RB'd.
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On July 18 2012 15:43 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 15:06 Keirathi wrote:
Also I have a hard time believing scum Milton would say he was RB'd when no one said they were night1. It's obviously going to put suspicion on him, so why would he do it? You have a hard time believing that and yet you're completely ok with a scum risen claiming cop with two town reads. That makes sense... oh wait no it doesn't #keirathiisscum
Err, what?
I never said that you claiming cop as scum would be a good idea. But at least I can make a case as to why a scum would fake claim cop in a non-MYLO/LYLO situation. I can't think of any case where it benefits scum to claim they were RB'd on n2 when no one claimed they were n1.
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On July 18 2012 16:02 strongandbig wrote:
scum can't leave a town cop alive, he might check them
What about if the mafia has a roleblocker? They've effectively turned him into a VT for the rest of the game, and the longer he lives the more suspicious his claim is.
I can think of another case where they would leave him alive, but there are probably too many nights left for that to be viable.
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Okay, I'm going to drop this argument at this point.
I got wrapped up in Newbie XVIII arguing all day over a similar situation, and it ended up costing us the game. Even though I don't necessarily think my idea is as bad as some people seem to think, I agree that lynching scum is better than lynching a cop to confirm his claim, so lets do that.
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On July 18 2012 16:46 Risen wrote:
It's hilarious how scummy keirathi's posting is. (i guess I'm the only one seeing it though since you have to take my being a cop as true to see it that way)
And maybe strongandbig sees it.
Then fucking lynch me today so you can get past your tunnel vision that you had with Vivax and maybe make an actual good read.
I'm serious, as much as I don't want us to lynch a townie today, I would rather Risen not be biased and tunneling me and not trying to find the real scum.
##Vote: Keirathi
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EBWOP: Sorry, I didn't really mean to curse at you. I'm just frustrated and sleepy. G'nite.
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EPT
