EPTSSB-64 Mafia - Page 5
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HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
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HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
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HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
If he flips town, where would you be looking? | ||
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HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
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HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
On July 05 2012 10:42 grush57 wrote: CALLED YOU SCUM OUT NOW THREAD DEAD. EASY TOWN LYNCHED D2 GG SCUM WINS. AND UR ALL LETTING IT HAPPEN He is 100% correct. I think this is the scum team: Cephiro & Talismania Let's start with Cephiro. He is a town read to a lot of people. Why? He shit up the thread right off the bat arguing with Risen, and then tunneled him for the rest of the game. He buddied up to iGrok. These posts rang alarm bells for me the first time I read through them: + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 05:49 Cephiro wrote: Back. I'm not exactly fond of Homerunbat's play, as he seems to be trying to avoid pissing anyone off. Or that's how it looks like to me. Of course one can just be very polite by nature, but the way he words what he says doesn't sound very natural to me. He keeps up a discussion with Saturn, where he originally has Saturn as one of his scumreads. Afterward he agrees on lynching talismania fairly easily, but based on what? The larger post of him earlier doesn't cover enough reasoning to do that imo. His other choice I can't criticize because I admit that I wouldn't mind seeing our useless lurker lose some stock if that's the only way to get him talking. Rank: 6 Risen needs to die, seriously. He was bashing on iGrok's plan without proper reasoning (he accused iGrok's plan of being bad due to losing town stock, and about lack of information, but his own plan was worse in BOTH areas.) And what are his scumreads? The people who agreed with iGrok or defended him. Brilliant play if I say so myself. The way he jumps at Homerunbat after he defends iGrok's play makes me cry. He also clearly buddies with Saturn and tries to control his actions (and even succeeds to get Saturn to vote for the bat.) Rank: 8 ##Vote: Risen Grush is useless. Literally. He comes in, keeps changing his votes constantly and doesn't contribute at all. I just can't see a townie do this, and if he somehow is town, he needs to be waken up. A prime target for night actions that cause stock loss, or a lynch if you won't lynch Risen today. Rank: 7 talismania, you need to stop trying to crunch the setup and base your play on your meta-game against the host, you need to start playing the game the way it's supposed to be played and deciding your reads based on the actions of others. If you're not going to step up your play asap, I will push you for lynch. Rank: 4 My thoughts on dedede+Saturn to follow. I don't believe that I need to add more about my opinion on iGrok (Rank: 2), he's my strongest townread but he has to stop the retarded derping around. So please, concentrate and prove me I'm not wrong about you. + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 06:39 Cephiro wrote: Mister Saturn: I was okay with his earlygame play, but since then he's gone all wishy-washy and saying he doesn't trust himself at all. He could be honest about it, or he could be scum looking for an easy way to vote for anyone. I don't care if you're unsure about yourself, I want you to do decisions based on your own opinion, not sheep others. Even the best players are wrong sometimes, and I don't want us to lose if you'll happen to sheep a townie that was wrong, or even worse, a scum dragging you by the ropes. The way you talk about "no-one cares about my opinion so I won't push for it anymore, but I have a gun and I'm not afraid to use it", isn't giving you any points in my book either. I want to hear YOUR opinions. Even if you aren't sure who is scum (which few are at this stage of the game), your opinions can still be valuable for others. So pick it up. And think before you act! Rank: 5 Kingdedede: The roleclaim at start seems quite honest to me, with the valid reasoning he gave. I am very interested in seeing how he is going to use it, given that he needs to keep his action secret from scum and only reveal his reasoning in the morning. I'm expecting his N1 action to tell a lot. What I don't like is that he is pushing for a mass claim. Certain roles claiming may be useful yes, but everyone claiming is better for scum than town imo. I like his provided reasoning for why he thinks iGrok is town, and I pretty much agree with it. I also like that he pointed out a minor contradiction in iGrok's play. (iGrok was against a mass claim, but wanted to lynch for role info earlier.) I'm slightly confused why he is pushing for talis lynch so hard without more/better reasoning though. Currently leaning slightly town, but I'm expecting to hear more from him soon, and very much looking forward to what he decides to do N1. Rank: 3 The ranks are just strange. He uses a lot of words to point out tiny things he doesn't like about each person. Risen is the only person he really goes after hard...but he really doesn't describe anything scummy about him. All his accusations look to me like he is accusing Risen of bad play, not being scum. This is really the extent of his scum hunting, outside of tunneling Risen like a boss. I really don't get the sense he is going after the town win-condition. Let's look at the reasoning using his ranks. The highest numbers should lose stock first, continuing on down to the lower numbers. He has Risen first, and as I already explained, his accusations are pretty bad. Following Risen he has grush, a lurker. Following that he has me, because I am polite and I decided I would lynch talismania. Read those three paragraphs, his three top reads, and take note of how phony sounding the accusations are. Now let's go to the reason why he has been basically auto-towned...the NK. This is important. There are perfectly logical reasons for scum Cephiro to aim the NK at himself. Dedede read him as town, so Cephiro knew that as a townie looking Samus, there was a good chance that dedede would choose to protect him via bus. Even if he didn't, the NK only removes one stock, which would absolutely be worth the massive town cred it got him. This does not add or subtract to the case against him. The important thing here is that the NK aimed at Cephiro is a null point. There are logical, valid reasons for it be he town or scum. Without that NK stuff, there is just his filter, and the filter looks pretty bad imo. On to Talismania. It's a lot of the same. He has been very passive. He shit up the thread with set-up speculation. He buddied up to iGrok with the 'translation' post. He also disobeyed his own 'call to action.' + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 06:13 talismania wrote: eh then I guess ##unvote ##vote grush57 Since I don't think mister saturn is going to happen. + Show Spoiler + On July 06 2012 01:57 talismania wrote: eh, ##push: Risen I think he's done ok scrambling but I can't shake the fact that he tried to save grush at the last second. grush is clearly scum and he has simply played poorly. He shouldn't have shot the same person they were putting the night kill on to begin with, and he shouldn't have claimed the shot afterwards. Assuming there's at least some modicum of communication between the two scumbuddies, I can't imagine hiropro or strongandbig letting someone do that. I'll go ahead and roleclaim since I don't see why not at this point. I'm kirby, and I ate risen last night. He is indeed a donkey kong (kirby's eating is unaffected by the bus according to toad after I asked). I think this leaves only homerunbat as an unknown role not that it really matters at this point anyway. I don't see conviction, I see going with the flow. This following post is really the only independent scum-hunting I could find from him: + Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 23:38 talismania wrote: Yo guys I know it seems like I'm focusing too weirdly on the game setup but I'm almost certain toad didn't do this game randomly (and iGrok confirms that) and I also have the benefit of knowing what my role is. And knowing what my role is and the fact that I'm town makes it seem really crazy that town would also have two samuses. I dunno - it could still be balanced that way but it would have to depend on what Grush/homerunbat/risen are. Even then I think risen is town and half the time I think homerunbat is town as well (some vacillation there though). Beyond that point I think Saturn/hiropro is acting the scummiest. To reiterate/expand: 1) Read how he participated in the Risen v iGrok debate. He was there but he wasn't in-your-face there (as cephiro was). He pushed Risen a bit but also threw in heaps of questions all over the place. 2) Pointing out every little thing that could be scummy. He did this with grush just recently and I think once before that I can't remember. Bit of a weak scumtell. 3) Being a bit of an opportunistic voter. Weakest evidence for sure but he hopped on iGrok, then hopped off rather quickly. 4) Even weaker but he has made a few points that hint at thinking from a scum POV, where he talks about the optimal play for scum etc in the beginning. My only big problem with saturn being scum is that I can't figure out who his partner would be. I thought it was iGrok until the post-derp spat and it became clear iGrok picked him up and whatnot (which makes no sense from a scum point of view). In any event ##vote: Mister Saturn ________________ @acro I'm pretty sure iGrok wants to lynch me just to figure out what my role is (same as he would for grush - dunno why he doesn't want to lynch risen for that reason though. or homerunbat). He said not to vote for him today presumably because then we would also be doing 1.5kp to saturn (so he said to wait for tomorrow so he could pick someone else up). Don't know why he wouldn't want the extra damage on saturn though. He calls 2 of his own points weak, and then essentially invalidates his own argument at the end by declaring that he can't be sure because there is nobody that makes sense for his partner. Here's his 'call to action': Call to action: + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 01:33 talismania wrote: this is an 8-person game. To expand on what acro is asking for, everyone should be posting their reads of everyone else, at least once a cycle. In a thirty person game this sort of thing is cumbersome, but in a game this small it is essential. It forces scum to talk about themselves and everyone else, the more we make scum lie the better, yadda yadda. I'll keep compiling people's reads and such in the spreadsheet/document as they happen. Did anybody see the follow-through for this? It's just like a broken promise, he didn't answer his own call to action. Lastly, this of course means I think grush57 is town. If you assume Cephiro is scum, grush's actions make sense. I feel good about these reads, but I'm more sure on Talismania, so that's the direction I want to go today. Get your votes off grush57 and on to Talismania. ##unvote ##vote: Talismania | ||
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HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
grush dies-> 3 town vs. 2 scum-> scum Cephiro shoots Saturn+ NK Saturn dies 2 town vs 2 scum=GG | ||
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HomerunBat
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HomerunBat
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I think it's really unlikely dedede is scum. | ||
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HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
I think acro is out of town now. Artanis are you there? | ||
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HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
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HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
Look at his defense, he still, STILL cannot name a single person and build a case on them. It's all association play, without a scum flip. Look at his 'why I'm town section.' Are any of those strong points? | ||
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HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
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HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
Ask yourself when going through Talis' filter if he has really been trying to find scum. Read my case again (and Saturn's), and read his defense (especially the portion where he explains how he is town). This is going to be the most anxiety filled hour ever  | ||
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HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
sorry again, my phone auto logs in as s0L | ||
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HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
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HomerunBat
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07-06-2012 06:51 PM ET (US) + Show Spoiler + Edit Delete yea we should share, our role doesnt mean anything anymore 158 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-06-2012 06:46 PM ET (US) should we share? I dont like the idea of claiming. 157 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-06-2012 06:19 PM ET (US) if talis does flip town though and assuming we are still not endgamed by then grush/saturn need to die asap 156 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 05:38 PM ET (US) i'm glad we agree though, it's always scary being alone on a read, and I trust yours. 155 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 05:36 PM ET (US) yea Talis defense really rang scummy to me. his evidence for himself as town was so totally weak. notice also the anger, the F-bombs. It wasn't like this when he was up for lynch before. He is cornered. 154 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-06-2012 04:24 PM ET (US) actually rereading talis defence is actually no defense but some funky connection stuff... I'll go along with your read on talis then. 153 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-06-2012 04:21 PM ET (US) Well you are awesome at applying pressure. Talismania does point out the scary votetiming from saturn/grush though and his responses together with cephs look quite okay to me. If we lynch grush we have to be sure to hit scum as you already pointed out the numbers. Actually I am really unsure now. What are your thoughts right now? 152 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 09:47 AM ET (US) I'm gonna write up a case on both of them. I really think I have it right this time. 151 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 08:35 AM ET (US) plus, even if cephiro didn't get bussed, it would have given him MAD town cred for taking the night hit, and he would only be down 1 stock. A fair trade in my eyes. 150 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 08:34 AM ET (US) I actually think it's cephiro and Talis. It's entirely possible that they predicted that cephiro would be bussed. I have to look in dedede's filter, but I think he was reading Cephiro as town. It would take balls of steel, but they could have put the KP on cephiro. I looked at dedede's filter, and it is pretty solid. I get a strong town vibe from him. This means that grush will flip town. If this does indeed happen, then I will be more convinced. Of all the players left, the filters just don't lie. Cephiro has been tunneling Risen all game, and Talis has done next to nothing, just going with the flow. Not sure how much you want of this, we got a lot | ||
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HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-06-2012 08:19 AM ET (US) Cephiro/dedede scumteam? Otherwise the nighthit on Ceph does not make any sense 148 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 08:15 AM ET (US) Cephiro's filter does not look good imo. All he has done is tunnel Risen the entire game. 147 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-06-2012 08:09 AM ET (US) yeah just saw it, my bad. 146 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 07:09 AM ET (US) yea he did, he said he ate risen. I looked at the votes. It was 4 votes for talis, 3 on grush. We then switched to grush, making it 3 to 4. Cephiro then comes in and votes grush. 3 to 5. Then risen switched from grush to talis. 4 to 4. Grush being the first to 4 means he would be lynched regardless of whether Talis was pikachu, assuming I understand it correctly. 145 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-06-2012 07:00 AM ET (US) wait he claimed Kirby? You sure? I have not found a claim in his filter Edited 07-06-2012 07:03 AM 144 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 06:58 AM ET (US) hmm, ill have to look at the numbers. he has since claimed kirby. if he was really lying about that then he is totally scum. 143 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-06-2012 06:44 AM ET (US) Well not following his own suggestion is something I overlooked. Looks pretty bad to be honest. I thought he was pikachu? Otherwise the whole lynch on grush day1 would not have worked. Edited 07-06-2012 06:45 AM 142 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 06:37 AM ET (US) i'll keep in mind what you said about Talis, I still haven't done a fresh read yet. I'm curious what you make of the fact that he called for everyone to present fresh reads once every cycle, then didn't even follow his own suggestion. 141 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 06:33 AM ET (US) another thing I want to do is look at dedede and cephiro again. if grush flips town especially so. Yoshi+samus would make sense for balance purposes.. I keep saying they are town, but I don't want to blind myself to the possibility. Also, Talis is Kirby. Kirby+falcon wouldn't be too bad for balance. 140 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-06-2012 05:44 AM ET (US) Well consider talismanias reaction to the first case you made on him. Calm, explaining and well-structured. his thoughts about the setup might seem filler, but they can also be logical from a town perspective. I would still have him as a townread. Saturn is getting better, but it is kind of hard to read him as S&B and Hiro seem to have a completely different postingstyle. but would you really think that town has two samuses against a scumteam of pikachu/falcon? kind of imbalanced in my opinion, but yeah that is speculation about setup and stuff. If cephiro had not been the target of the scum KP I would have called him more scummy since earlier but like now I am kind of stuck on grush/Saturn team. A Talismania scum would be indicative of dedede scum in my opinion, Talis has zero interaction with dedede, which is worrying. But having the high townread on dedede I would lynch grush today and find a way to kill saturn 139 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 04:39 AM ET (US) and no worries 138 s0Lstice 07-06-2012 04:39 AM ET (US) The way Saturn has been behaving recently...it makes me want to have another look. Let me know your opinion, I am beginning to lean Talismania as the last scum. I haven't finished doing a review of it yet. Cephiro and dedede are very town, so it's gotta be either Tali or Mr. S. 137 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-05-2012 08:04 PM ET (US) Sorry for leaving you out like this the whole day, stuff came up and I just couldn't check til now. How do you want to proceed? Lynch grush and tell vig/samus to hit saturn at night? 136 s0Lstice 07-05-2012 06:47 AM ET (US) ah nvm. seems he is DK, he was surprised his carry target didn't get damaged. 135 s0Lstice 07-05-2012 04:51 AM ET (US) I think Risen is fox. He seems pretty surprised he took damage, asserting he got roleblocked. 134 s0Lstice 07-04-2012 08:03 PM ET (US) ok will do. 133 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-04-2012 08:02 PM ET (US) I'll be off now. Keep pushing grush/Saturn if possible/needed. Any of their flips should be pretty good. 132 s0Lstice 07-04-2012 07:38 PM ET (US) thanks 131 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-04-2012 07:37 PM ET (US) send it to the hydraaccount 130 s0Lstice 07-04-2012 07:30 PM ET (US) hey can you resend that risen case back to me? or just reply to it. I need the html coding intact. 129 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-04-2012 06:29 PM ET (US) I totally agree with the vote on grush, seriously stacking up to make damage quite clearly scum. Also the push on saturn brings him to 1 stock. easy to pick off later 128 ShiaoPiPerson was signed in when posted 07-04-2012 06:27 PM ET (US) oh wait ignore my derpfest of thought :S 127 s0Lstice 07-04-2012 06:26 PM ET (US) looks like dedede bussed between cephiro and risen. makes perfect sense | ||
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HomerunBat
Oman114 Posts
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HomerunBat
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HomerunBat
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I've been through dedede's filter a number of times and got a town read every time. I will go look again though, mainly because that's the one scenario we are totally screwed in. you are controlling the shot, so don't close your mind to anything, but don't be paranoid. There is no need to rush either, we got 24 hours. | ||
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